Editor's Note:

In spite of all the volatility surrounding the fiscal cliff it has been a relatively quiet week for our play list. Monday's big bounce helped erased most if not all of last week's pullback.


Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 37.68

Comments:
12/31/12: ADBE has been consolidating in what looks like a bull-flag consolidation pattern. Traders bought the dip this morning and Monday's move looks like a potential bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. This might signal that ADBE is ready to begin the next leg higher but that will probably depend on how the market reacts to all the fiscal cliff news.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 05, 2012 - entry price on ADBE @ 35.30, option @ 2.32
symbol:ADBE1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/3.35

12/15/12 new stop loss @ 33.75
12/13/12 ADBE reports earnings.

Current Target:$ 44.00
Current Stop loss: 33.75
Play Entered on: 12/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 35.30

Comments:
12/31/12: AIG has continued to consolidate sideways. It looks like the stock is poised to breakout through resistance near $36.00 soon. Readers looking for a new bullish position could use a close above $36.00 as an entry point.

Last weekend we announced plans to exit our 2013 Jan $30 calls at the open on Monday, Dec. 24th. That position was closed with the option at $5.00 (+47.0%). We still have our 2014 position.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - exit @ $5.00 (+47.0%)

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.35

12/24/12 closed our 2013 call position at the open.
Our exit was at $5.00 (+47.0%)
12/22/12 Exit the 2013 calls immediately on Monday morning
current bid is at $4.80
12/15/12 readers may want to exit our 2013 calls now.
12/08/12 move the target for the 2013 calls to $37.00
11/02/12 AIG gapped down following its earnings report
10/06/12 adjusting our exit targets. Plan on exiting our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We'll exit our 2014 calls when AIG hits $42.50
09/08/12 Treasury has announced an $18 billion sale of AIG stock
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 2013 call: $37.00, 2014 calls: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Citigroup - C - close: 39.56

Comments:
12/31/12: Citigroup has been consolidating sideways in the $38.50-40.00 zone these last two weeks. The stock looks ready to breakout higher but that will depend on the market. Readers may want to start raising their stop loss.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
DEC 18, 2012 - entry price on C @ 39.21, option @ 3.02
symbol: C1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.55/ 3.70

Current Target:$ 47.50-50.00range
Current Stop loss: 34.65
Play Entered on: 12/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/12


CONSOL Energy Inc. - CNX - close: 32.10

Comments:
12/31/12: CNX is currently hovering near support at its 200-dma and its multi-month trend line of higher lows. A breakdown here would be very bearish. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our long-term target is $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 09, 2012 - entry price on CNX @ 32.50, option @ 3.24
symbol: CNX1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.15/ 2.29

12/22/12 action this past week is potentially bearish. stay cautious!
12/02/12 readers may want to exit early now
11/09/12 triggered on a dip at $32.50
11/03/12 adjust the trigger down to $32.50, stop to $29.75
10/27/12 adjust the trigger down to $33.00

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/09/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12


Cree, Inc. - CREE - close: 33.98

Comments:
12/31/12: Traders have bought the dip in CREE twice near short-term support at $33.00. I am not convinced the correction lower is over yet but the larger pattern remains higher. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 01, 2012 - entry price on CREE @ 29.85, option @ 3.80
symbol:CREE1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 5.45/ 5.65

12/15/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
12/15/12 bid/ask spread on our 2014 calls is too wide!
12/02/12 new stop loss @ 28.45

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 11/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 61.44

Comments:
12/31/12: EXPE continues to bounce from its recent test of the 50-dma. The stock is nearing resistance near $62 and its all-time high. If the market cooperates we could see EXPE launch into its next leg higher. At the moment I would wait for a close above $62.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 29, 2012 - entry price on EXPE @ 61.84, option @ 6.00
symbol: EXPE1418a74.48 '14 JAN $74.48 call - current bid/ask $5.60/6.00

12/13/12 EXPE began trading ex-dividend (52cents). The option strike on our 2014 calls moved from $75.00 to $74.48.

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 54.40
Play Entered on: 11/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 30.86

Comments:
12/31/12: FSLR has spent the last few days consolidating sideways near what should be round-number support at the $30 level. Monday's big bounce (+3.5%) is encouraging but many of the short-term technicals remain bearish. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: Readers will be interested to hear that there seem to be rumors that FSLR might be a takeover candidate and that could be helping fuel gains.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 28, 2012 - entry price on FSLR @ 26.20, option @ 5.00
symbol: FSLR1418a30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $6.50/6.80

12/22/12 new stop loss @ 25.75, FSLR looks poised for more profit taking
12/15/12 readers may want to take profits early. The bid on our call is up to $8.15.
12/08/12 new stop loss @ 24.40

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 25.75
Play Entered on: 11/28/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


General Electric - GE - close: 20.99

Comments:
12/31/12: GE had been flirting with a breakdown below technical support at its 200-dma. Monday's big bounce (+2.6%) looks like a bullish reversal but we need to see confirmation. Readers may want to wait for a close above $21.40 before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.53/0.54

12/14/12 GE increased its dividend to 19 cents
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 19.75
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 162.02

Comments:
12/31/12: Normally the U.S. dollar and gold prices move in opposite directions. Yet this past week they have both been trending higher. The GLD is now back above its simple 200-dma but there is still additional resistance in the $162-165 area.

Our long-term target is the $190-200 zone.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 20, 2012 - entry price on GLD @ 159.87, option @ 2.60
symbol: GLD1418a200 2014 JAN $200 call - current bid/ask $2.88/3.00

12/08/12 removed the 2013 call. Only use the 2014 call
11/03/12 Adjust the entry trigger down to $160.00 and the stop to $154.40
10/27/12 adjust the entry trigger to $162.00 and the stop to $154.90
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $163.00, stop to $157.75
adjust the 2013 call from Jan. $175 to June $175
09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Current Target: $190.00-200.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 154.40
Play Entered on: 12/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 63.47

Comments:
12/31/12: The market's weakness on fiscal cliff fears played to our advantage. HON was a watch list candidate and the plan was to buy calls on a dip at $62.50. Shares hit that entry trigger this morning before revering higher. I would still consider new positions now but given all the uncertainty surrounding a fiscal cliff deal readers may want to wait and see what the headlines are on Wednesday morning and if the market opens positive or not before considering new bullish positions in HON.

Our stop loss is at $58.40. Our long-term target is $74.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term $86 target.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 31, 2012 - entry price on HON @ 62.50, option @ 4.40
symbol: HON1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $4.80/5.00

Chart of HON:

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 58.40
Play Entered on: 12/31/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 19.67

Comments:
12/31/12: Both the NASDAQ and JNPR spiked lower on Monday morning but both reversed sharply higher. JNPR managed a +1.5% gain. Readers may want to wait for a new close back above the $20.00 mark before initiating new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 19, 2012 - entry price on JNPR @ 20.39, option @ 1.84
symbol: JNPR1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $1.44/1.45

Current Target: $24.75
Current Stop loss: 18.75
Play Entered on: 12/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 38.67

Comments:
12/31/12: After almost two weeks of slowly consolidating lower shares of LEN delivered a strong +2.8% rebound today. The $40.00 level remains overhead resistance. I am not suggesting new positions with LEN sitting just beneath resistance.

Currently our stop loss is at $33.90. More conservative traders may want to move theirs closer to $35.00 instead.

Earlier Comments:
I do think the $40.00 level is likely resistance and LEN will probably see a pullback on its initial test of $40.00. Keep in mind that we also have more than a year for our 2014 calls to work.

- Suggested Positions -
(target for 2013 calls was hit at $36.00 on 09/14/2012)
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $3.70 (+78.7%)

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $5.30/5.50

10/20/12 new stop loss @ 33.90, adjust exit target on 2014 calls to $44.00
09/24/12 LEN reported earnings, investors sell the news
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 33.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
09/14/12 2013 call target hit at $36.00, option @ 3.70 (+78.7%)
...

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $44.00 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 33.90
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 76.62

Comments:
12/31/12: If you consider what the fiscal cliff means for major defensive contractors shares of LLL have been holding up very well. Last week the stock did see a four-day decline but shares reversed off its Monday morning lows today.

The cliff issue remains a big risk for LLL and the defense sector. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 05, 2012 - entry price on LLL @ 75.64, option @ 4.40
symbol: LLL1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 4.60

Current Target:$ 85.00
Current Stop loss: 71.85
Play Entered on: 11/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 55.68

Comments:
12/31/12: MSI spent almost all of December consolidating sideways between $55 and $54. Today the stock explodes higher with a +2.9% gain and a bullish breakout to new highs. If both MSI and the S&P 500 index open positive on Wednesday, readers may want to consider new bullish positions.

Our long-term target is $65.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish and is forecasting at $70 target.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 26, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 54.11, option @ 2.93
symbol: MSI1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.89/ 3.10

Current Target:$65.00
Current Stop loss: 49.75
Play Entered on: 11/26/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Nokia Corp. - NOK - close: 3.95

Comments:
12/31/12: The correction in NOK continued until shares found support near $3.80. The market's widespread rebound today helped NOK produce a +3.6% gain. The next hurdle for the bulls is short-term resistance at $4.00 and the $4.10 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our long-term target remains $4.95 but readers may want to seriously consider taking some money off the table now.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to buy NOK the stock or the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 20, 2012 - entry price on NOK @ 2.97, option @ 0.78
symbol: NOK1418a3 2014 JAN $3 call - current bid/ask $ 1.40/ 1.43

- or -

Buy NOK stock: entry @ 2.97

12/22/12 new stop loss @ 3.40
12/15/12 new stop loss @ 3.25
12/08/12 new stop loss @ $2.95

Current Target:$ 4.95
Current Stop loss: 3.40
Play Entered on: 11/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 53.63

Comments:
12/31/12: SBUX has been moving sideways to down the last few days. That changed with Monday's +1.8% bounce but SBUX remains under short-term resistance at its 10-dma and the $54.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at the moment.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 07, 2012 - entry price on SBUX @ 53.43, option @ 3.80
symbol:SBUX1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/ 3.80

Current Target:$ 62.00
Current Stop loss: 47.75
Play Entered on: 12/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


Southern Copper Corp - SCCO - close: 37.86

Comments:
12/31/12: SCCO produced a +1.6% gain on Monday but the stock remains inside the $37-39 range. The stock has been stuck in this range for three weeks in a row. Upward momentum has stalled. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
NOV 06, 2012 - entry price on SCCO @ 35.78, option @ 2.30
symbol:SCCO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.35/ 2.70

12/22/12 SCCO looks poised to correct lower toward $36.00
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 33.25
11/06/12 trade opened on gap down at $35.78, below our trigger.
(gap down was due to SCCO trading ex-dividend)

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 33.25
Play Entered on: 11/06/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


SIRIUS XM Radio - SIRI - close: 2.89

Comments:
12/31/12: Shares of SIRI have been slowly drifting lower since our last update. The stock's failure to bounce higher with the rest of the market on Monday is a bit alarming and a warning signal. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 04, 2012 - entry price on SIRI @ 2.75, option @ 0.38
symbol:SIRI1418A3 2014 JAN $3.00 call - current bid/ask $ 0.42/ 0.45

- or -

Buy the Stock: Entry @ $2.75 on Oct. 4th, 2012

12/15/12 new stop loss @ 2.57
12/06/12 SIRI announces a stock buyback program and 5-cent dividend
11/03/12 new stop loss @ 2.45
10/20/12 warning! SIRI is up five weeks in a row and growing overbought. The stock could see a sell-off on its earnings report

Current Target: $ 3.90
Current Stop loss: 2.57
Play Entered on: 10/04/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Teck Resources - TCK - close: 36.35

Comments:
12/31/12: Resource and material names were showing relative strength on Monday. TCK produced a +3.2% gain. Yet shares have not escaped its $35-37 trading range from the last three weeks. I am not suggesting new positions at the moment.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 10, 2012 - entry price on TCK @ 35.19, option @ 3.40
symbol: TCK1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/3.90

Current Target: $43.75
Current Stop loss: 31.75
Play Entered on: 12/10/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 12/08/12


Valero Energy - VLO - close: 34.12

Comments:
12/31/12: VLO was showing some relative strength on Monday with a +3.0% gain. The stock has closed just beneath its 2012 highs set in mid December. A breakout past the $34.50 level would be bullish. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 23, 2012 - entry price on VLO @ 31.25, option @ 3.30*
symbol: VLO1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.35

12/15/12 new stop loss @ 29.75
11/23/12 trade opened on gap open higher at $31.25
*Entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play opened.

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/23/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12