Editor's Note:

The market's upward momentum is definitely slowing down. We are certainly seeing a slowdown in several of our bullish candidates. Investors will want to re-evaluate their stop loss placement and make sure you're comfortable with the risk for each trade. The market will correct and I suspect it will be sooner rather than later.


Closed Plays



None. No closed plays this week.



Play Updates


Analog Devices - ADI - close: 46.18

Comments:
02/16/13: ADI delivered another week of gains. Yet shares didn't make it very far past the $46.00 level. This week could be volatile as ADI reports earnings on Feb. 19th, after the closing bell. Analysts are expecting a profit of 45 cents a share. Earnings news could push it to our target at $49.00 or it could produce a correction back toward support near $44.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on ADI @ 43.60, option @ 3.10
symbol: ADI1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/4.00

02/09/13 new stop loss @ 41.90
adjust exit target to $49.00

Current Target:$ 49.00
Current Stop loss: 41.90
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 38.35

Comments:
02/16/13: It looks like the rally in AIG has reversed at round-number resistance at the $40.00 level. The stock is headed for short-term support at $38.00. If that level fails we could see AIG dip back toward $35.00.

AIG is scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 21st, after the closing bell. Wall Street is looking for a loss of two cents per share from AIG.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
(closed on Dec. 24th)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - exit @ $5.00 (+47.0%)

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 5.75/ 5.90

02/02/13 new stop loss @ 34.40
01/26/13 new stop loss at $32.75
12/24/12 closed our 2013 call position at the open.
Our exit was at $5.00 (+47.0%)
12/22/12 Exit the 2013 calls immediately on Monday morning
current bid is at $4.80
..for prior updates, check older newsletters

Current Target:$ 2013 call: $37.00, 2014 calls: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 34.40
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Citigroup - C - close: 43.84

Comments:
02/16/13: Citigroup saw a strong rally on Feb. 12th but momentum stalled the rest of the week. The $44-45 zone has been support and resistance in the past so I'm not too surprised. If C does see a pullback we can watch for support near $42.50 and then near $40.00. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
DEC 18, 2012 - entry price on C @ 39.21, option @ 3.02
symbol: C1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 4.10/ 4.20

01/05/13 new stop loss @ 37.35

Current Target:$ 47.50-50.00range
Current Stop loss: 37.35
Play Entered on: 12/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/12


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 114.96

Comments:
02/16/13: CVX saw a minor pullback last week and most of that was on Friday. Shares bounced near $114 and its 30-dma but I am not convinced the pullback is over yet. If the market corrects I would watch for a dip into the $111.00-110.00 zone.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 14, 2013 - entry price on CVX @ 111.38, option @ 3.40
symbol: CVX1418a120 2014 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/4.50

02/02/13 do not be surprised to see a pullback now that earnings have been announced.

Current Target:$124.50
Current Stop loss: 104.75
Play Entered on: 01/14/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 64.58

Comments:
02/16/13: EXPE gave back about a dollar for the week and posted its second weekly decline in a row. Yet shares continue to trade inside the $64-66 zone. EXPE still has a long-term bullish trend of higher lows. I would not be surprised to see a correction lower back toward the $62-60 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our stop loss is at $57.40. More conservative traders may want to adjust theirs higher.

Earlier Comments:
I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 29, 2012 - entry price on EXPE @ 61.84, option @ 6.00
symbol: EXPE1418a74.48 '14 JAN $74.48 call - current bid/ask $5.00/5.20

01/05/13 new stop loss @ 57.40
12/13/12 EXPE began trading ex-dividend (52cents). The option strike on our 2014 calls moved from $75.00 to $74.48.

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 57.40
Play Entered on: 11/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


General Electric - GE - close: 23.29

Comments:
02/16/13: GE saw big gains last week, most of it on Feb. 13th. The stock popped higher as investors applauded the company's deal to sell its stake in NBCUniversal to Comcast for $16.7 billion. GE's management said they would spend up to $10 billion of the proceeds to buy back GE stock. The rally last week pushed GE to levels not seen since 2008.

I am raising our stop loss to $21.40.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.68/0.69

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 21.40
02/02/13 new stop loss @ 20.40
12/14/12 GE increased its dividend to 19 cents
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 21.40
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 155.76

Comments:
02/16/13: Ouch! The GLD plunged -3.6% for the week. I discussed the action in gold and the GLD in tonight's market commentary. Essentially gold prices dropped on news that some big investors were reducing their gold positions or selling them off entirely. Yet big picture central banks continue to buy gold at levels not seen since the mid 1960s.

The GLD was hit hard on Friday with a gap down and a dip to $154.56. It just so happens that our stop loss is $154.40 so the trade is on. Traders could use a bounce from here, maybe a bounce over $156.50, as a new bullish entry point to buy GLD call LEAPS.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 20, 2012 - entry price on GLD @ 159.87, option @ 2.60
symbol: GLD1418a200 2014 JAN $200 call - current bid/ask $1.26/1.37

02/15/13 the GLD almost hit our stop loss at $154.40
02/09/13 the sideways consolidation is narrowing. Expect a breakout one way or the other soon.
...look for older comments in prior updates

Current Target: $190.00-200.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 154.40
Play Entered on: 12/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 70.11

Comments:
02/16/13: HON spent last week hovering near $70.00 near its recent highs. The lack of profit taking is a good sign but shares remain overbought and due for a dip. Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits right now. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 31, 2012 - entry price on HON @ 62.50, option @ 4.40
symbol: HON1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $7.65/7.85

02/09/13 new stop loss @ 67.40, adjust exit target to $72.00,
investors may want to book profits now with the option bid @ $8.05
02/02/13 new stop loss @ 63.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 59.90

Current Target: $72.00
Current Stop loss: 67.40
Play Entered on: 12/31/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 21.86

Comments:
02/16/13: Traders bought the dip in JNPR last week near $21 and its 40-dma. The stock rebounded to end the week almost unchanged. The stock does look poised to rally past $22.00. Yet if the market corrects we can watch for JNPR to dip toward support near $20.00.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 19, 2012 - entry price on JNPR @ 20.39, option @ 1.84
symbol: JNPR1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $1.67/1.73

02/09/13 JNPR is showing relative weakness
01/26/13 new stop loss @ 19.45

Current Target: $24.75
Current Stop loss: 19.45
Play Entered on: 12/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 37.42

Comments:
02/16/13: KO was a watch list candidate. Shares had broken out through resistance near $38 and its 200-dma and 150-dma a couple of weeks ago. We wanted to wait and buy a dip near $38.00. The stock gapped open lower on Feb. 12th at $38.11 and quickly hit our entry trigger to buy calls at $38.05 as shares plunged through the $38.00 mark. The sell-off continued for two more days. Traders finally bought the dip at $36.54 on Friday morning. Our stop loss happens to be at $36.40.

The sell-off on Feb. 12th was a reaction to the company's earnings report. KO delivered a profit of 45 cents a share, which was one cent above estimates. Revenues were a miss at $11.46 billion for the quarter. Investors may have been unhappy with KO's cautious stance on growth in Europe and Asia. I cautioned readers that conservative traders might have wanted to wait to see how the market reacted to earnings before initiating positions.

At this point I would wait for shares to close above $38.15 before initiating new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.01
symbol: KO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $0.83/0.87

- or -

FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.75
symbol: KO1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $1.58/1.69

Chart of KO:

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 36.40
Play Entered on: 02/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/13


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 40.20

Comments:
02/16/13: Many of the homebuilders saw a big bounce the middle of last week. Unfortunately for LEN the rebound is already starting to fade. The long-term trend is still up but I am not suggesting new positions. Readers may want to just book profits now with an early exit.

- Suggested Positions -
(target for 2013 calls was hit at $36.00 on 09/14/2012)
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $3.70 (+78.7%)

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $5.20/5.35

01/19/13 new stop loss @ 37.75, adjust exit target on 2014 calls to $46
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 35.75
10/20/12 new stop loss @ 33.90, adjust exit target on 2014 calls to $44.00
09/24/12 LEN reported earnings, investors sell the news
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 33.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
09/14/12 2013 call target hit at $36.00, option @ 3.70 (+78.7%)
...

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $46.00 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 37.75
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 77.67

Comments:
02/16/13: That's not a typo. Shares of LLL closed unchanged for the week. I remain concerned about how the sequestration defense cuts might impact the defense sector stocks. Investors may want to abandon ship early right now. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 05, 2012 - entry price on LLL @ 75.64, option @ 4.40
symbol: LLL1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.30/ 3.50

02/09/13 new stop loss @ 75.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 73.75. readers may want to just exit early now!

Current Target:$ 85.00
Current Stop loss: 75.75
Play Entered on: 11/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 61.43

Comments:
02/16/13: MSI is still showing relative strength. The stock surged to new multi-year highs last week. Investors may want to take profits early right now since MSI is looking overbought here. I am raising the stop loss to $57.25. I am also adjusting our exit target down to $64.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 26, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 54.11, option @ 2.93
symbol: MSI1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 4.85/ 5.00

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 57.25, adjust exit to $64.00
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 55.75
01/19/13 new stop loss @ 54.75
01/12/13 new stop loss @ 53.75

Current Target:$64.00
Current Stop loss: 57.25
Play Entered on: 11/26/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


The Manitowoc Co - MTW - close: 19.50

Comments:
02/16/13: MTW delivered a bullish performance with strong gains on Monday and Tuesday last week. The stock's rally has stalled right below round-number resistance at the $20.00 mark. Investors might want to consider taking an early profit right here. Odds are good MTW is going to see a pullback from here. Look for short-term support at the 10-dma and then near the $18.00 level.

I am raising our stop loss to $16.30.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 24, 2013 - entry price on MTW @ 17.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: MTW1418a20 2014 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.60/ 2.75

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 16.30

Current Target:$21.50
Current Stop loss: 16.30
Play Entered on: 01/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Nokia Corp. - NOK - close: 3.99

Comments:
02/16/13: I remain worried about NOK. Technically the stock looks weak. Shares were unable to rally past their 40-dma and midweek the stock reversed lower. At this point I would expect NOK to retest short-term support at $3.80 on any market weakness. More conservative traders may want to just exit now to lock in a gain. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to buy NOK the stock or the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 20, 2012 - entry price on NOK @ 2.97, option @ 0.78
symbol: NOK1418a3 2014 JAN $3 call - current bid/ask $ 1.30/ 1.35

- or -

Buy NOK stock: entry @ 2.97

02/09/13 new stop loss @ 3.75
01/19/13 readers may want to take profits now, prior to the earnings announcement.
01/12/13 new stop loss @ 3.65
12/22/12 new stop loss @ 3.40
12/15/12 new stop loss @ 3.25
12/08/12 new stop loss @ $2.95

Current Target:$ 4.95
Current Stop loss: 3.75
Play Entered on: 11/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 54.34

Comments:
02/16/13: SBUX underperformed the market last week but shares really turned weak on Friday. It was right around the 2:00 p.m. mark that SBUX suddenly plunged lower on Friday. I still haven't identified what the catalyst was for the sudden weakness. The breakdown below its 50-dma is technically bearish. Odds just jumped that SBUX will see a correction lower toward the next level of support near $52.00. If that level fails then $50 is the next support. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss higher. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 07, 2012 - entry price on SBUX @ 53.43, option @ 3.80
symbol:SBUX1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.68/ 2.72

01/05/13 new stop loss @ 49.85

Current Target:$ 62.00
Current Stop loss: 49.85
Play Entered on: 12/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


Southern Copper Corp - SCCO - close: 39.67

Comments:
02/16/13: Precious metals like silver and gold were hammered lower late last week. Yet copper prices were relatively steady. That probably kept the pullback in shares of SCCO to a minimum. I suspect that if the market produces a pullback then we'll see SCCO retest the $38 level or the 100-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
NOV 06, 2012 - entry price on SCCO @ 35.78, option @ 2.30
symbol:SCCO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.90/ 3.10

02/09/13 SCCO will begin trading ex-dividend on Monday (24 cents)
01/19/13 new stop loss @ 36.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 34.75
12/22/12 SCCO looks poised to correct lower toward $36.00
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 33.25
11/06/12 trade opened on gap down at $35.78, below our trigger.
(gap down was due to SCCO trading ex-dividend)

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 36.75
Play Entered on: 11/06/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


The Charles Schwab Corp. - SCHW - close: 16.90

Comments:
02/16/13: SCHW's performance last week was encouraging. The prior week looked bearish with a potential top forming on Feb. 7th and 8th. The stock was downgraded on the 11th but traders bought the dip near $16.50. Shares slowly drifted higher the rest of the week.

The trend is still up but SCHW remains very overbought and definitely overdue for a correction lower. I am suggesting that we go ahead and sell half of our position now to lock in a partial gain. More nimble traders could exit completely right here and consider jumping back in on a correction.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $18.75. More aggressive traders can aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $24 target.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
JAN 23, 2013 - entry price on SCHW @ 15.74, option @ 0.80
symbol:SCHW1418a17 2014 JAN $17 call - current bid/ask $ 1.25/ 1.40

02/16/13 prepare to sell half of our position on Tuesday morning, Feb. 19th at the opening bell
02/09/13 investors may want to consider exiting now to book a profit and then jump back in on a correction.

Current Target: $18.75
Current Stop loss: 14.70
Play Entered on: 01/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Schlumberger Ltd. - SLB - close: 80.03

Comments:
02/16/13: The sideways consolidation in SLB narrowed last week until shares exploded higher on the 14th. SLB was a watch list candidate. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $81.00 and then buy calls the next day. Shares settled at 81.56 on Thursday and opened on Friday morning at $81.03. We can use this dip near $80.00 as another entry point. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term target of $102.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 15, 2013 - entry price on SLB @ 81.03, option @ 3.37
symbol: SLB1418a90 2014 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.30

Chart of SLB:

Current Target: $94.75
Current Stop loss: 76.40
Play Entered on: 02/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 46.81

Comments:
02/16/13: The oversold bounce in SOHU continues with shares finding short-term support at the 300-dma and 50-dma last week. The next hurdle for the bulls is likely short-term resistance at the $48.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 05, 2013 - entry price on SOHU @ 45.50, option @ 4.40
symbol:SOHU1418a50 2014 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.50

Current Target: $58.50
Current Stop loss: 42.40
Play Entered on: 02/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/12


Urban Outfitters - URBN - close: 41.29

Comments:
02/16/13: I cautioned readers a week ago that URBN was likely to correct lower toward the $40.00 level. Shares are more than half way there with a dip to the 50-dma. I am still expecting a dip toward $40.00. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on URBN @ 41.22, option @ 4.20
symbol:URBN1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/3.70

02/07/13 URBN pre-warning better than expected sales numbers

Current Target: $48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


Vulcan Materials Co. - VMC - close: 55.03

Comments:
02/16/13: I warned readers that VMC might see some volatility surrounding its earnings report. The company announced earnings on the 14th. Results were 13 cents better than expected, which is bullish. Yet revenues were a miss at $608 million for the quarter. The stock initially spiked lower toward $53.00 as traders reacted to the earnings news but the stock quickly recovered. I'm not convinced the correction is over. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
VMC has a one cent dividend payable on March 11, 2013 to shareholders of record on Feb. 25th.

We want to keep our position size small!

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 22, 2013 - entry price on VMC @ 56.81, option @ 5.60
symbol: VMC1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/3.90

02/02/13 expecting a pullback in VMC.
01/22/13 trade opens
01/19/13 moved to the new plays section
01/18/13 VMC rallies past resistance, meets our entry requirements
01/05/12 new strategy. Wait for a close above $55.25 with a stop at $49.75. Our long-term target is $68.50. Small positions.

Current Target:$ 68.50
Current Stop loss: 49.75
Play Entered on: 01/22/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12