Closed Plays


We closed HON on Monday, Feb. 25th
LLL, SLB, SOHU, and VMC were stopped out.


Play Updates


Analog Devices - ADI - close: 45.23

Comments:
03/02/13: ADI shares are down two weeks in a row but traders have been buying the dips. On the daily chart it looks like shares spiked down, below $44.00, and hit its 50-dma before bouncing back but that seems to be a bad tick. You won't see it on an intraday chart, which shows short-term support in the $44.40 area. Essentially ADI is churning sideways like much of the market. There should be short-term support near $44 and there is short-term resistance at the 10-dma. If the $44 level breaks then the next support is probably $42.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on ADI @ 43.60, option @ 3.10
symbol: ADI1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/3.60

02/09/13 new stop loss @ 41.90
adjust exit target to $49.00

Current Target:$ 49.00
Current Stop loss: 41.90
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 37.85

Comments:
03/02/13: The financial sector was hit hard on Monday's market decline. AIG was no exception. Yet traders bought the dip. Although it's worth noting that the bounce didn't make it very far. I am not convinced the correction in AIG is over. I would not be surprised to see the stock pullback into the $36-35 zone. Over the past week there has been a small flurry of analysts activity. AIG received both bullish and bearish analyst comments.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
(closed on Dec. 24th)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - exit @ $5.00 (+47.0%)

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 5.60/ 5.75

02/02/13 new stop loss @ 34.40
01/26/13 new stop loss at $32.75
12/24/12 closed our 2013 call position at the open.
Our exit was at $5.00 (+47.0%)
12/22/12 Exit the 2013 calls immediately on Monday morning
current bid is at $4.80
..for prior updates, check older newsletters

Current Target:$ 2013 call: $37.00, 2014 calls: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 34.40
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Citigroup - C - close: 42.11

Comments:
03/02/13: Citigroup also saw a sharp decline with the market's sell-off last Monday. The stock did bounce but traders were selling into strength near technical resistance at its 10-dma. I suspect there is a growing risk we will see C retreat into the $40-38 zone. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
DEC 18, 2012 - entry price on C @ 39.21, option @ 3.02
symbol: C1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.35/ 3.45

01/05/13 new stop loss @ 37.35

Current Target:$ 47.50-50.00range
Current Stop loss: 37.35
Play Entered on: 12/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/12


Colgate-Palmolive - CL - close: 114.11

Comments:
03/02/13: CL was downgraded on Tuesday but the news didn't have much affect on the stock price. Shares did rally back toward their recent highs and reversed. This now has the potential to turn into a short-term bearish double top pattern with resistance near $115.70. So far the up trend is still in place. If CL does pullback we can watch for support in the $111-110 zone.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
FEB 20, 2013 - entry price on CL @ 112.00, option @ 4.20
symbol: CL1418a115 2014 JAN $115 call - current bid/ask $ 5.30/ 5.60

Current Target:$ 124.50
Current Stop loss: 106.75
Play Entered on: 02/20/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/13


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 116.90

Comments:
03/02/13: CVX added almost a point for the week as the stock ignored the weakness in oil prices. Shares actually tagged a new four-month high on Thursday. The recent relative strength is a good sign I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative investors may want to start adjusting their stop loss higher.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 14, 2013 - entry price on CVX @ 111.38, option @ 3.40
symbol: CVX1418a120 2014 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 5.05/5.25

02/02/13 do not be surprised to see a pullback now that earnings have been announced.

Current Target:$124.50
Current Stop loss: 104.75
Play Entered on: 01/14/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


Dollar Tree, Inc. - DLTR - close: 46.11

Comments:
03/02/13: Our DLTR is now open but the trade has not shaped up as we expected. DLTR was a big outperformer this past week with a +10% gain. Most of that gain was on Wednesday when shares gapped open higher at $43.50 and then spiked up to $46.71 intraday.

The big move higher was a reaction to DLTR's earnings report. The company beat estimates by two cents with a profit of $1.01 a share. Revenues were also a beat. Q1 guidance was normal but DLTR actually lowered their full year guidance. Normally you would think that management lowering guidance would send the stock lower. Yet investors were more interested in seeing DLTR's strong same-store sales and improving margins. Management also provided bullish commentary suggesting that the payroll tax and rising gas prices would help funnel more cost-conscious consumers into DLTR stores.

DLTR was on our watch list and the plan was to wait for shares to close above $42.75 and then buy calls the next day. DLTR met that requirement on Wednesday with a close at $45.39. Our trade opened on Thursday at $45.25. I would not chase it here. DLTR did show strength on Friday and the breakout past its 200-dma and 300-dma is technically bullish but DLTR is short-term overbought.

Please note that I am changing our exit target to $53.50.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 28, 2013 - entry price on DLTR @ 45.25, option @ 4.76
symbol:DLTR1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/5.30

02/28/13 trade opened following gap higher, above our trigger

Chart of DLTR:

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 39.50
Play Entered on: 02/28/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 63.74

Comments:
03/02/13: The correction in EXPE is now four weeks old. Thus far the pullback has been mild and orderly. The stock is nearing its longer-term trend of higher lows. We'll soon see if EXPE can resume the up trend or if it will breakdown. Nimble investors could use a bounce off the $60.00 level or its 100-dma as a new bullish entry point.

Earlier Comments:
I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 29, 2012 - entry price on EXPE @ 61.84, option @ 6.00
symbol: EXPE1418a74.48 '14 JAN $74.48 call - current bid/ask $4.30/4.50

02/23/13 new stop loss @ 59.25
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 57.40
12/13/12 EXPE began trading ex-dividend (52cents). The option strike on our 2014 calls moved from $75.00 to $74.48.

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 59.25
Play Entered on: 11/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


General Electric - GE - close: 23.19

Comments:
03/02/13: GE spent the week churning sideways. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. If the market does correct lower I would look for a dip into the $22.50-22.00 zone. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.76/0.79

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 21.40
02/02/13 new stop loss @ 20.40
12/14/12 GE increased its dividend to 19 cents
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 21.40
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 20.49

Comments:
03/02/13: Ouch! JNPR lost almost a dollar for the week thanks to a Monday-Tuesday decline that broke support near $21.00 and its 50-dma. Shares look headed for round-number support at $20.00 soon. More conservative investors might want to raise their stop loss closer to the $20.00 mark. Currently our stop is at $19.45. JNPR has seen more than a -10% correction from its February intraday high. We are looking for the stock to find support at $20.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 19, 2012 - entry price on JNPR @ 20.39, option @ 1.84
symbol: JNPR1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $1.18/1.25

02/09/13 JNPR is showing relative weakness
01/26/13 new stop loss @ 19.45

Current Target: $24.75
Current Stop loss: 19.45
Play Entered on: 12/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 38.70

Comments:
03/02/13: Monday's session for KO looked very ugly with a big, bearish engulfing candlestick. Yet there was no follow through and shares reversed to post a gain for the week. Positive comments from billionaire investor Warren Buffett didn't hurt. KO is now facing short-term resistance near the $39.00 level.

Earlier Comments:
KO's next quarterly dividend is payable on April 1st, 2013 to shareholders on record as of March 15th.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.01
symbol: KO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $1.30/1.34

- or -

FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.75
symbol: KO1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $2.26/2.37

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 36.40
Play Entered on: 02/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/13


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 62.03

Comments:
03/02/13: Traders bought the dip near round-number support at $60.00 and MSI has rebounded to hit new highs. Shares are flirting with a bullish breakout past the $62.00 level.

We are currently aiming for $64.00. More aggressive investors may want to aim higher. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 26, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 54.11, option @ 2.93
symbol: MSI1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.40

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 57.25, adjust exit to $64.00
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 55.75
01/19/13 new stop loss @ 54.75
01/12/13 new stop loss @ 53.75

Current Target:$64.00
Current Stop loss: 57.25
Play Entered on: 11/26/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


The Manitowoc Co - MTW - close: 18.14

Comments:
03/02/13: We have been expecting a pullback in MTW. Shares managed a bounce from their Tuesday lows near $17.50 and the 40-dma but I am not convinced the correction is over. Traders sold the rebound at short-term resistance near the 10-dma. I suspect MTW is likely headed for the $17.00 area. No new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 24, 2013 - entry price on MTW @ 17.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: MTW1418a20 2014 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.90/ 2.00

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 16.30

Current Target:$21.50
Current Stop loss: 16.30
Play Entered on: 01/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 54.87

Comments:
03/02/13: Investors continued to buy the dips in SBUX and shares managed a 70-cent gain for the week. Shares are still fighting with short-term technical resistance at the 20, 30, 40 and 50-dma, all directly overhead. A breakout could spark a little short covering. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 07, 2012 - entry price on SBUX @ 53.43, option @ 3.80
symbol:SBUX1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.92/ 2.97

01/05/13 new stop loss @ 49.85

Current Target:$ 62.00
Current Stop loss: 49.85
Play Entered on: 12/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


The Charles Schwab Corp. - SCHW - close: 16.40

Comments:
03/02/13: Last weekend I warned readers that the correction in SCHW was probably not over. The stock broke down to new two-week lows. On a positive note we did see traders buy the dips near $16.00 but the stock appears stuck under the $16.50 level for the moment. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. If the stock market turns lower I would expect SCHW to test the $15.50 area.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $18.75. More aggressive traders can aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $24 target.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
JAN 23, 2013 - entry price on SCHW @ 15.74, option @ 0.80
symbol:SCHW1418a17 2014 JAN $17 call - current bid/ask $ 1.05/ 1.15

02/23/13 new stop loss @ $15.20
02/19/13 sold half at the open: option bid @ $1.25 (+56.2%)
02/16/13 prepare to sell half of our position on Tuesday morning, Feb. 19th at the opening bell
02/09/13 investors may want to consider exiting now to book a profit and then jump back in on a correction.

Current Target: $18.75
Current Stop loss: 15.20
Play Entered on: 01/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Urban Outfitters - URBN - close: 40.81

Comments:
03/02/13: Good news! Traders bought the dip in URBN near $39.00 and its rising 100-dma. The stock is now up four days in a row and has delivered a nice rebound back above what could have been resistance at $40.00. I would not get too optimistic here. The retailers could see trouble with rising gasoline prices and the payroll tax increase. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on URBN @ 41.22, option @ 4.20
symbol:URBN1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/3.40

02/23/13 readers may want to consider scaling back positions or exiting early now.
02/07/13 URBN pre-warning better than expected sales numbers

Current Target: $48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


CLOSED Plays


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 70.05

Comments:
03/02/13: Last weekend we decided to exit our HON trade so investors can lock in gains. The plan was to exit on Monday morning. HON opened at $69.89 on Feb. 25th.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 31, 2012 - entry price on HON @ 62.50, option @ 4.40
symbol: HON1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - exit $7.70 (+75%)

02/25/13 early exit at the open
02/23/13 Exit now on Monday morning to lock in gains.
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 67.40, adjust exit target to $72.00,
investors may want to book profits now with the option bid @ $8.05
02/02/13 new stop loss @ 63.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 59.90

Chart of HON:

Current Target: $72.00
Current Stop loss: 67.40
Play Entered on: 12/31/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 76.40

Comments:
03/02/13: The stock market's sharp decline on Monday pushed LLL to our stop loss at $75.75.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 05, 2012 - entry price on LLL @ 75.64, option @ 4.40
symbol: LLL1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - exit $2.80 (-36.3%)

02/25/13 stopped out
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 75.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 73.75. readers may want to just exit early now!

Chart of LLL:

Current Target:$ 85.00
Current Stop loss: 75.75
Play Entered on: 11/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Schlumberger Ltd. - SLB - close: 77.64

Comments:
03/02/13: SLB only lost 15 cents for the week but it was a volatile week. The stock market's widespread decline on Monday helped push SLB to our stop loss at $76.40.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 15, 2013 - entry price on SLB @ 81.03, option @ 3.37
symbol: SLB1418a90 2014 JAN $90 call - exit $2.33 (-30.8%)

02/25/13 stopped out at $76.40

Chart of SLB:

Current Target: $94.75
Current Stop loss: 76.40
Play Entered on: 02/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 43.76

Comments:
03/02/13: SOHU has not been cooperating and I cautioned readers last week that we might see this trade stopped out. Shares hit our new stop loss at $44.75 on Feb. 28th.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 05, 2013 - entry price on SOHU @ 45.50, option @ 4.40
symbol:SOHU1418a50 2014 JAN $50 call - exit $3.30 (-25%)

02/28/13 stopped out
02/23/13 new stop loss @ 44.75, readers may want to exit early right now to cut their losses

Chart of SOHU:

Current Target: $58.50
Current Stop loss: 44.75
Play Entered on: 02/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/12


Vulcan Materials Co. - VMC - close: 51.99

Comments:
03/02/13: VMC pierced support at the $50.00 level thanks to the stock market's sharp sell-off on Monday, Feb. 25th. Shares hit our stop loss at $49.75.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small!

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 22, 2013 - entry price on VMC @ 56.81, option @ 5.60
symbol: VMC1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - exit $1.75 (-68.7%)

02/25/13 stopped out
02/02/13 expecting a pullback in VMC.
01/22/13 trade opens
01/19/13 moved to the new plays section
01/18/13 VMC rallies past resistance, meets our entry requirements
01/05/12 new strategy. Wait for a close above $55.25 with a stop at $49.75. Our long-term target is $68.50. Small positions.

Chart of VMC:
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Current Target:$ 68.50
Current Stop loss: 49.75
Play Entered on: 01/22/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12