Editor's Note:

I am urging caution tonight. It was surprising to see how many stocks on our list did not participate with the market's rally to new highs.

We did see MRK and ZNGA graduate from our watch list to play list.

NOTE: We do want to exit our JNPR play at the open on Monday morning.


Closed Plays



None. No closed plays this week.



Play Updates


Analog Devices - ADI - close: 45.53

Comments:
03/16/13: ADI posted a loss for the week. I am concerned about the stock and the semiconductor sector. The SOX index rallied close to its 2012 highs and reversed with a decline on Friday. This could be a potential double top for the semis. Meanwhile ADI saw its rally reverse near $47.00 on Friday and shares underperformed both the market and the SOX on Friday with a -2.0% decline. Thursday's peak could be a new lower high.

More conservative investors will want to seriously consider raising their stop loss. On a short-term basis I am expecting ADI to dip back toward its 50-dma and likely the $44.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on ADI @ 43.60, option @ 3.10
symbol: ADI1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/3.60

03/16/13 did ADI just create a new lower high?
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 41.90
adjust exit target to $49.00

Current Target:$ 49.00
Current Stop loss: 41.90
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 38.97

Comments:
03/16/13: The financial sector continued to push higher last week. Yet shares of AIG have been slowly correcting lower all week long. We suspected that $40.00 was overhead resistance but AIG's relative weakness these last few days is a potential warning signal. If the market corrects we can look for AIG to dip toward support near $37.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

More conservative investors might want to adjust their stop closer to the $36.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
(closed on Dec. 24th)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - exit @ $5.00 (+47.0%)

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 6.05/ 6.20

02/02/13 new stop loss @ 34.40
01/26/13 new stop loss at $32.75
12/24/12 closed our 2013 call position at the open.
Our exit was at $5.00 (+47.0%)
12/22/12 Exit the 2013 calls immediately on Monday morning
current bid is at $4.80
..for prior updates, check older newsletters

Current Target:$ 2013 call: $37.00, 2014 calls: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 34.40
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Citigroup - C - close: 47.26

Comments:
03/16/13: It was another up week for shares of Citigroup. Most of the gains came on Monday after C was upgraded to a "buy". The stock has been consolidating sideways below the $48.00 level the last four days. On a positive note C did pass the government's bank stress tests (a.k.a. the CCAR).

The newsletter is aiming to exit our calls at $49.00. Readers might want to consider taking profits now since our calls have effectively doubled in value. I am raising the stop loss to $41.75. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
DEC 18, 2012 - entry price on C @ 39.21, option @ 3.02
symbol: C1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.00/ 6.10

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 41.75, readers may want to take profits now since our option has virtually doubled (+100%)
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 39.75, adjust target to $49.00
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 37.35

Current Target:$ 49.00
Current Stop loss: 41.75
Play Entered on: 12/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/12


Colgate-Palmolive - CL - close: 112.08

Comments:
03/16/13: Ouch! Shares of CL fell everyday this past week. The sell-off accelerated on Thursday and again on Friday. CL was downgraded from an "overweight" to an "equal weight" on Friday morning, which sparked the gap down at the open. I cautioned readers last week that CL look poised for a pullback. What worries me is the fact that CL is plunging while the market's major indices are hitting new relative highs. I do expect the $111-110 zone to offer some support. We will raise our stop loss to $108.40. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to $110 instead. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
FEB 20, 2013 - entry price on CL @ 112.00, option @ 4.20
symbol: CL1418a115 2014 JAN $115 call - current bid/ask $ 3.90/ 4.15

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 108.40

Current Target:$ 124.50
Current Stop loss: 108.40
Play Entered on: 02/20/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/13


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 119.68

Comments:
03/16/13: Dow Industrial component CVX helped the index hit new highs when the stock broke out to all-time highs of its own on Thursday. Shares actually garnered bullish analyst comments and a higher price target on Wednesday. CVX certainly looks poised to breakout past the $120 level soon.

I am raising the stop loss to $113.25. That's just below the February low. We are currently aiming for $124.50 but more aggressive investors may want to aim higher.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 14, 2013 - entry price on CVX @ 111.38, option @ 3.40
symbol: CVX1418a120 2014 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 6.00/6.14

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 113.25
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 109.50
02/02/13 do not be surprised to see a pullback now that earnings have been announced.

Current Target:$124.50
Current Stop loss: 113.25
Play Entered on: 01/14/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


Dollar Tree, Inc. - DLTR - close: 44.24

Comments:
03/16/13: I have cautioned readers that DLTR could try and fill the gap from its late February surge higher. The stock has underperformed the market two weeks in a row and is back below its 200-dma and 300-dma. The recent relative weakness could just be normal profit taking but the fact that DLTR is retreating while the market is hitting new highs is troubling.

I am moving our stop loss up to $41.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 28, 2013 - entry price on DLTR @ 45.25, option @ 4.76
symbol:DLTR1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/4.00

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 41.40
02/28/13 trade opened following gap higher, above our trigger

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 41.40
Play Entered on: 02/28/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 66.22

Comments:
03/16/13: It was a relatively quiet week for shares of EXPE. The stock slowly climbed to a new five-week high. The trend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact. Our stop loss is at $59.25 but more conservative traders may want to adjust theirs so it's closer to the simple 100-dma.

Earlier Comments:
I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 29, 2012 - entry price on EXPE @ 61.84, option @ 6.00
symbol: EXPE1418a74.48 '14 JAN $74.48 call - current bid/ask $4.90/5.10

02/23/13 new stop loss @ 59.25
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 57.40
12/13/12 EXPE began trading ex-dividend (52cents). The option strike on our 2014 calls moved from $75.00 to $74.48.

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 59.25
Play Entered on: 11/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


General Electric - GE - close: 23.44

Comments:
03/16/13: Don't look now but GE's rally could be on the verge of correcting lower. The stock did post a minor loss for the week (33 cents). Traders sold into strength on both Thursday and Friday. Now GE shares are hovering at short-term technical support on the rising 20-dma. If GE breaks support here I would expect a pullback toward the $22.50 area.

Since our call options have virtually doubled (+100%) readers might want to take profits right now. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.81/0.83

03/09/13 our 2014 Jan $25 call option has doubled. Readers might want to consider taking some money off the table.
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 21.40
02/02/13 new stop loss @ 20.40
12/14/12 GE increased its dividend to 19 cents
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 21.40
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 20.17

Comments:
03/16/13: It's time to throw in the towel on our JNPR play. The stock just isn't working for us. Shares have essentially been correcting lower these last seven weeks while at the same time the U.S. market's major indices have been breaking out to new highs. JNPR's recent oversold bounce from support near $20.00 has failed and now it's about to test the $20 level again. Support may not hold this time.

I am suggesting an immediate exit on Monday morning at the opening bell.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 19, 2012 - entry price on JNPR @ 20.39, option @ 1.84
symbol: JNPR1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $1.03/1.07

03/16/13 prepare to exit immediately on Monday morning (03/18/2013)
02/09/13 JNPR is showing relative weakness
01/26/13 new stop loss @ 19.45

Current Target: $24.75
Current Stop loss: 19.45
Play Entered on: 12/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 38.83

Comments:
03/16/13: After a three-week rally shares of KO hit some profit taking on Tuesday and Wednesday last week. KO bounced on Thursday thanks to an analyst upgrade for the stock. Big picture we don't see any changes here. Investors may want to be patient. KO could provide a better entry point on a dip near the $38.00 level, which should be new support.

Earlier Comments:
KO's next quarterly dividend is payable on April 1st, 2013 to shareholders on record as of March 15th.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.01
symbol: KO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $1.32/1.36

- or -

FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.75
symbol: KO1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $2.50/2.59

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 36.40
Play Entered on: 02/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/13


Merck & Co. - MRK - close: 44.09

Comments:
03/16/13: MRK is a new trade. We had MRK on our watch list. The stock had resistance near the $44.00 level. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $44.25 and then buy calls the next day. MRK surprised us with a big gap open higher on March 12th where share opened at $45.42 and closed at $45.04. The big move higher was fueled by MRK's press release that the "Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) of the IMPROVE-IT trial has completed its planned review of study data and recommended that the study continue." IMPROVE-IT is an 18,000 patient trial that's focused on MRK's cholesterol drug ezetimibe.

Our trade opened on March 13th with shares of MRK gapping down at $44.54. Since then MRK has filled the gap with a dip to what should be new support near the $44.00 level. I would use this pullback to $44.00 as a new bullish entry point to buy calls.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 2.06
symbol: MRK1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $1.88/1.91

- or -

MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 3.60
symbol: MRK1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $3.30/3.40

03/16/13 use the dip to $44.00 as another entry point to buy calls
03/13/13 trade opens with MRK gapping down at $44.54
03/12/13 MRK gaps open higher and closed at $45.04, above our suggested entry (close above $44.25).

Chart of MRK:

Current Target: $49.50
Current Stop loss: 41.45
Play Entered on: 03/13/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 62.07

Comments:
03/16/13: MSI posted a small loss for the week. Shares have dipped to short-term support near $62 and its rising 20-dma. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Our exit target is $64.00 but more conservative investors may want to take profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 26, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 54.11, option @ 2.93
symbol: MSI1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 5.25/ 5.35

03/09/13 new stop loss @ 59.75
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 57.25, adjust exit to $64.00
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 55.75
01/19/13 new stop loss @ 54.75
01/12/13 new stop loss @ 53.75

Current Target:$64.00
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 11/26/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


The Manitowoc Co - MTW - close: 20.80

Comments:
03/16/13: MTW is one of our best performers for the week. Shares rallied past round-number resistance at the $20.00 level and closed at new 52-week highs. Our exit target is $21.50. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. Since our call option has doubled (+100%) more conservative investors might want to take profits now. I am raising our stop loss to $17.85.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 24, 2013 - entry price on MTW @ 17.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: MTW1418a20 2014 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.40

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 17.85
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 16.85
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 16.30

Current Target:$21.50
Current Stop loss: 17.85
Play Entered on: 01/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 57.66

Comments:
03/16/13: SBUX failed to follow the market higher. Shares spent most of the week churning sideways but spiked lower on Thursday morning. I cautioned readers a week ago to expect a pullback soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 07, 2012 - entry price on SBUX @ 53.43, option @ 3.80
symbol:SBUX1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 3.85/ 3.95

03/09/13 new stop loss @ 52.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 49.85

Current Target:$ 62.00
Current Stop loss: 52.75
Play Entered on: 12/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


The Charles Schwab Corp. - SCHW - close: 17.86

Comments:
03/16/13: It was a volatile week for shares of SCHW and the stock managed to eke out a 20-cent gain. SCHW did hit new 52-week highs midweek but shares were downgraded to a "sell" on Friday morning. Shares do look short-term overbought here. Look for short-term support near $17.00. Investors might want to take profits now.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $18.75. More aggressive traders can aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $24 target.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
JAN 23, 2013 - entry price on SCHW @ 15.74, option @ 0.80
symbol:SCHW1418a17 2014 JAN $17 call - current bid/ask $ 1.85/ 2.00

03/09/13 new stop loss @ 15.90, our call option has more than doubled and readers may want to take profits now.
02/23/13 new stop loss @ $15.20
02/19/13 sold half at the open: option bid @ $1.25 (+56.2%)
02/16/13 prepare to sell half of our position on Tuesday morning, Feb. 19th at the opening bell
02/09/13 investors may want to consider exiting now to book a profit and then jump back in on a correction.

Current Target: $18.75
Current Stop loss: 15.90
Play Entered on: 01/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Urban Outfitters - URBN - close: 40.65

Comments:
03/16/13: URBN reported earnings on March 11th. The results were 56 cents a share on revenues of $857 million for the quarter. Wall Street was expecting 57 cents on revenues of $841.4 million. The bottom line was a miss but revenues were a beat. Plus URBN's gross margins improved. The stock rallied the next day (March 12th) but the rally ran out of gas the very next session. Positive analyst comments were not enough to reignite the rally and URBN faded lower the rest of the week.

This could be normal post-earnings profit taking. At the same time this past week is starting to look like a new lower high for shares of URBN, which is troubling. Currently our stop loss is at $37.85. More conservative traders may want to exit early now or raise their stop toward $39.00 near the late February low. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on URBN @ 41.22, option @ 4.20
symbol:URBN1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.85/3.00

03/16/13 no follow through on the earnings bounce. URBN looks vulnerable here.
03/09/13 Get ready for earnings. URBN is scheduled to report earnings on March 11th.
02/23/13 readers may want to consider scaling back positions or exiting early now.
02/07/13 URBN pre-warning better than expected sales numbers

Current Target: $48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 72.50

Comments:
03/16/13: Technically it was a bearish week for WMT. The stock briefly tagged a new relative high just above resistance near $74.00 but the rally didn't last. Now with Friday's underperformance suddenly WMT appears to have formed a short-term bearish double top. I would expect a dip back to the $72.00-71.50 zone and if the market rolls over then we could see WMT retreat toward $70.00. Use a bounce near $72.00 as a new bullish entry point.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 3.10
symbol: WMT1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 2.38/2.44

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 2.97
symbol: WMT1517a80 2015 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.59/2.72

Current Target: $85.00-90.00 range
Current Stop loss: 67.25
Play Entered on: 03/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


Zynga, Inc. - ZNGA - close: 3.62

Comments:
03/16/13: It was a volatile week for shares of ZNGA. Monday saw the stock breakout to new multi-month highs and tag the $4.00 intraday. Our plan was to wait for ZNGA to close above $3.80 since the stock had resistance near $3.70. Monday's rally met our entry point requirement. The stock opened at $4.02 on Tuesday morning and immediately reversed. ZNGA appears to have found support again near $3.60 but shares have been trading sideways in the $3.60-3.80 zone the last few days.

I cautioned readers that ZNGA was a higher-risk, more aggressive trade. The stock's volatility could make this a challenging trade. Readers may want to wait for shares to close above $3.80 or even the $4.00 level before initiating new positions. The plan was to buy the 2014 $5.00 call or buy the stock itself instead.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 12, 2013 - entry price on ZNGA @ 4.02, option @ 0.73
symbol:ZNGA1418a5 2014 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.52/0.56

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on ZNGA stock @ 4.02

03/12/13 ZNGA opens at $4.02 (entry point)
03/11/13 ZNGA closed at $3.93, above our entry requirement of 3.80

Chart of ZNGA:

Current Target: $5.75
Current Stop loss: 3.25
Play Entered on: 03/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/02/13