Editor's Note:

The U.S. market ended the first quarter of 2013 on a high note with the S&P 500 at a new all-time closing high. Equities look overbought here. Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits now to lock in gains.


Closed Plays


EXPE was stopped out.
MSI and URBN were closed as planned.



Play Updates


Analog Devices - ADI - close: 46.49

Comments:
03/30/13: It was a pretty good week for ADI. Shares are back above their 50-dma and they're nearing the short-term trend of lower highs. The stock looks poised to breakout higher. However, any breakout might be delayed. On Friday ADI's CEO suddenly died of what appears to be a heart attack. Since the market was closed on Friday there was no reaction to this news in the stock price. There is a good chance that ADI could see some knee-jerk reaction selling on Monday morning.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on ADI @ 43.60, option @ 3.10
symbol: ADI1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.90/4.10

03/29/13 ADI's CEO dies of a heart attack.
03/23/13 ADI still looks poised to retreat lower.
03/16/13 did ADI just create a new lower high?
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 41.90
adjust exit target to $49.00

Current Target:$ 49.00
Current Stop loss: 41.90
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 38.82

Comments:
03/30/13: Some of the headlines this past week included news that AIG has adopted a "clawback policy" to foster sound risk management and accountability among its executives. Meanwhile the stock is slowly rebounding from its March 25th lows. I remain cautious here.

More conservative investors might want to adjust their stop closer to the $36.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
(closed on Dec. 24th)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - exit @ $5.00 (+47.0%)

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 6.10/ 6.20

02/02/13 new stop loss @ 34.40
01/26/13 new stop loss at $32.75
12/24/12 closed our 2013 call position at the open.
Our exit was at $5.00 (+47.0%)
12/22/12 Exit the 2013 calls immediately on Monday morning
current bid is at $4.80
..for prior updates, check older newsletters

Current Target:$ 2013 call: $37.00, 2014 calls: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 34.40
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 12.18

Comments:
03/30/13: It was not a good week for shares of BAC, which gave back -3% in the last four days. BAC is actually down six days in a row. The financial sector has essentially churned sideways the last two weeks. The pullback in BAC may just be normal profit taking although it's worrisome to see BAC slipping lower while the S&P 500 is hitting new highs.

On a technical note last week has created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern on BAC's weekly chart. These patterns need to see confirmation first but it is a caution flag to be aware of.

You may want to wait for a bounce off the $12 level or a new close above $12.50 before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $0.43/0.44

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $1.18/1.21

Current Target:$ 18.00
Current Stop loss: 10.90
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Bed Bath & Beyond - BBBY - close: 64.42

Comments:
03/30/13: Profit taking on Thursday erased all of BBBY's gains for the week and shares posted a minor weekly loss. The rally looks tired here. There is a very good chance we are going to see BBBY correct lower back into the $62.50-62.00 zone. Nimble traders could actually sell their call options right now and look for a new entry point on a pullback.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

BBBY is due to report earnings on April 10th.

Earlier Comments:
More conservative investors will want to wait until after we see how the market reacts to BBBY's earnings results before initiating new positions, regardless if BBBY meets our entry requirement before then.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 21, 2013 - entry price on BBBY @ 63.06, option @ 5.20
symbol: BBBY1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $5.80/5.90

03/30/13 Nimble traders could exit now (for a small profit) and re-enter positions on a pullback.
03/21/13 trade opens with BBBY opening at $63.06
03/20/13 BBBY meets our entry requirement (close over $62.50) with a close at $63.34

Current Target:$ 74.50
Current Stop loss: 58.25
Play Entered on: 03/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/16/13


Citigroup - C - close: 44.24

Comments:
03/30/13: The financial sector has been churning sideways the last two weeks while the rest of the market edged higher. Unfortunately Citigroup has been underperforming both the wider market and its peers in the financial sector. The stock has been correcting lower two weeks in a row. Shares are now testing what should be support near $44 and its 50-dma. Yet instead of buying the dip, I would wait. Citigroup is scheduled to report earnings on April 15th. It may pay to wait and see how the market reacts to C's earnings results before considering new positions.

Nimble traders could exit now (for a profit) and re-enter positions on a dip.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
DEC 18, 2012 - entry price on C @ 39.21, option @ 3.02
symbol: C1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 4.35/ 4.40

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 41.75, readers may want to take profits now since our option has virtually doubled (+100%)
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 39.75, adjust target to $49.00
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 37.35

Current Target:$ 49.00
Current Stop loss: 41.75
Play Entered on: 12/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/12


Colgate-Palmolive - CL - close: 118.03

Comments:
03/30/13: The final week of the first quarter was bullish for CL with the stock adding three and a half points. Shares have broken out to new all-time, historic highs. The next level of resistance is likely the $120 mark. More conservative traders may want to take profits in the $119-120 area. Our long-term target remains $124.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Please note our new stop loss at $109.90.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
FEB 20, 2013 - entry price on CL @ 112.00, option @ 4.20
symbol: CL1418a115 2014 JAN $115 call - current bid/ask $ 6.95/ 7.25

03/30/13 new stop loss @ 109.90
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 108.40

Current Target:$ 124.50
Current Stop loss: 109.90
Play Entered on: 02/20/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/13


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 118.82

Comments:
03/30/13: Shares of CVX stumbled across the end of the quarter finish line. Shares peaked on Monday, March 25th and have been slipping lower since. For some reason I can't identify, a number of the energy sector stocks turned lower on Thursday. CVX was definitely showing relative weakness on Thursday with a -1.1% decline and a close below its 20-dma.

Technically CVX created a bearish reversal pattern on March 25th and has since confirmed the reversal. The question now is how deep will the reversal lower be? There is plenty of potential support between $118 and $114. If CVX trades below $114 then we're in danger of being stopped out.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 14, 2013 - entry price on CVX @ 111.38, option @ 3.40
symbol: CVX1418a120 2014 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 5.45/5.60

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 113.25
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 109.50
02/02/13 do not be surprised to see a pullback now that earnings have been announced.

Current Target:$124.50
Current Stop loss: 113.25
Play Entered on: 01/14/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


Dollar Tree, Inc. - DLTR - close: 48.43

Comments:
03/30/13: DLTR delivered another decent gain last week with shares rising toward new six-month highs. A quick glance at an intraday chart and you'll see how traders have been consistently buying the dips. There is a good chance that the $50.00 level could be round-number, psychological resistance for DLTR so don't be surprised to see a pullback. More conservative traders might want to consider exiting early and taking profits when DLTR rises into the $49-50 zone.

The mid-March low was $43.68. I am raising our stop loss to $43.45. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 28, 2013 - entry price on DLTR @ 45.25, option @ 4.76
symbol:DLTR1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.50/6.70

03/30/13 new stop loss @ 43.45
More conservative investors might want to take profits as DLTR moves into the $49-50 zone.
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 41.40
02/28/13 trade opened following gap higher, above our trigger

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 41.40
Play Entered on: 02/28/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


General Electric - GE - close: 23.12

Comments:
03/30/13: GE is such a huge company it has long been considered a market bellwether. The fact that GE is not participating with the market's rise to new highs does not bode well for the market or GE. Shares dipped to technical support near its 50-dma and its late February low. Thus far the bounce has been pretty meager. Odds are pretty good we're going to see GE correct toward the next level of support, which is near $22.00.

More conservative investors may want to just take profits right now. I am not suggesting new positions.

FYI: GE is scheduled to report earnings on April 19th.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.70/0.72

03/09/13 our 2014 Jan $25 call option has doubled. Readers might want to consider taking some money off the table.
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 21.40
02/02/13 new stop loss @ 20.40
12/14/12 GE increased its dividend to 19 cents
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 21.40
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 40.44

Comments:
03/30/13: KO is at a potential turning point. The stock has rallied toward its 2012 July-August highs near $40.60. This past Tuesday actually saw KO close at a new multi-year high at $40.70. Since then shares have been consolidating sideways. I have to warn you that a pullback here would start to look like a big, bearish double top pattern.

Our 2014 calls have more than doubled in value. Since KO is sitting just below resistance, I am suggesting we go ahead and exit our 2014 calls immediately on Monday morning to lock in gains. We will leave the 2015 calls alone. Although I am raising the stop loss to $38.25.

FYI: KO is scheduled to report earnings on April 16th.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.01
symbol: KO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $2.09/2.15

- or -

FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.75
symbol: KO1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $3.25/3.35

03/30/13 prepare to exit our 2014 Jan $40 calls on Monday, April 1st, 2013 at the opening bell to lock in gains. Current bid is $2.09.
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 38.25
03/23/13 new stop loss @ 37.65
Our 2014 calls have almost doubled and readers may want to take profits early right now

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 38.25
Play Entered on: 02/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/13


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 41.84

Comments:
03/30/13: A decline in consumer confidence on Tuesday sapped the energy out of the retail stocks. Shares of Macy's turned lower and then spent the rest of the week churning sideways. Overall M's performance was rather disappointing. The stock remains near its recent multi-year highs but failed to follow the market's major indices higher.

Investors may want to wait for a new closing high above $42.75 before considering bullish positions.

The old all-time highs near $46.50 could be resistance but at the moment we are aiming for $48.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $53 target.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 21, 2013 - entry price on M @ 42.22, option @ 2.85
symbol: M1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $2.31/2.38

Current Target: $48.50
Current Stop loss: 39.25
Play Entered on: 03/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Merck & Co. - MRK - close: 44.20

Comments:
03/30/13: MRK also delivered a disappointing performance last week. The DRG drug index is surging to new ten-year highs and yet MRK is just sitting there churning sideways near $44.00. That is not very encouraging. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Investors may want to scale back on their position size to limit their exposure.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 2.06
symbol: MRK1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $1.98/2.03

- or -

MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 3.60
symbol: MRK1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $3.40/3.55

03/30/13 MRK is not participating in the market's rally or drug sector rally. Investors will want to turn more defensive here.
03/16/13 use the dip to $44.00 as another entry point to buy calls
03/13/13 trade opens with MRK gapping down at $44.54
03/12/13 MRK gaps open higher and closed at $45.04, above our suggested entry (close above $44.25).

Current Target: $49.50
Current Stop loss: 41.45
Play Entered on: 03/13/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


The Manitowoc Co - MTW - close: 20.56

Comments:
03/30/13: MTW lost nine cents for the week. Traders did buy the dip at support near $20.00 on Wednesday. If the market continues to rally there is a good chance we could see MTW hitting our exit target at $21.50 soon. On the other hand if stocks retreat following the amazing Q1 performance we could see MTW dropping toward $19 and its 50-dma.

Our call option has doubled in value. Readers may want to lock in profits now.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 24, 2013 - entry price on MTW @ 17.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: MTW1418a20 2014 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.30

03/23/13 new stop loss @ 18.40
Readers may want to exit early now to lock in gains
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 17.85
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 16.85
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 16.30

Current Target:$21.50
Current Stop loss: 18.40
Play Entered on: 01/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 56.95

Comments:
03/30/13: SBUX slipped about 40 cents for the week. Traders bought the dip twice near short-term support around $56.00 and its 30 and 40-dma. Unfortunately, SBUX still has a two-week trend of lower highs.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative investors may want to raise their stops.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 07, 2012 - entry price on SBUX @ 53.43, option @ 3.80
symbol:SBUX1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.50

03/09/13 new stop loss @ 52.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 49.85

Current Target:$ 62.00
Current Stop loss: 52.75
Play Entered on: 12/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


The Charles Schwab Corp. - SCHW - close: 17.69

Comments:
03/30/13: SCHW managed to eke out a small 15-cent gain for the week. Shares did spike lower on Wednesday morning but traders bought the dip near $17 and its rising 30-dma and 40-dma. Our option has more than doubled in value and more conservative investors might want to take profits now.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $18.75. More aggressive traders can aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $24 target.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
JAN 23, 2013 - entry price on SCHW @ 15.74, option @ 0.80
symbol:SCHW1418a17 2014 JAN $17 call - current bid/ask $ 1.75/ 1.85

03/09/13 new stop loss @ 15.90, our call option has more than doubled and readers may want to take profits now.
02/23/13 new stop loss @ $15.20
02/19/13 sold half at the open: option bid @ $1.25 (+56.2%)
02/16/13 prepare to sell half of our position on Tuesday morning, Feb. 19th at the opening bell
02/09/13 investors may want to consider exiting now to book a profit and then jump back in on a correction.

Current Target: $18.75
Current Stop loss: 15.90
Play Entered on: 01/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13


Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 74.83

Comments:
03/30/13: Wal-Mart shares spent the week hovering below round-number resistance at the $75.00 level. The stock looks poised to breakout higher if the market continues to move up. In other news WMT unveiled plans where they are considering the idea to have Wal-Mart customers deliver packages to online customers. It seems a bit out there and would face several legal challenges if they choose to pursue it. Right now they're in the early planning stages.

I am raising our stop loss to $69.45.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 3.10
symbol: WMT1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 3.45/3.55

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 2.97
symbol: WMT1517a80 2015 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/3.60

Current Target: $85.00-90.00 range
Current Stop loss: 69.45
Play Entered on: 03/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


Zynga, Inc. - ZNGA - close: 3.36

Comments:
03/30/13: I am sorry to say it but I think our ZNGA trade is a dud. Shares reversed at the $4.00 level and are now down two weeks in a row. That's not a good sign when the market's major indices are breaking out to new highs.

I am suggesting an immediate exit on Monday, April 1st, at the opening bell.

Earlier Comments:
I cautioned readers that ZNGA was a higher-risk, more aggressive trade. The stock's volatility could make this a challenging trade.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 12, 2013 - entry price on ZNGA @ 4.02, option @ 0.73
symbol:ZNGA1418a5 2014 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.43/0.46

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on ZNGA stock @ 4.02

03/30/13 prepare to exit on Monday, April 1st at the opening bell
03/12/13 ZNGA opens at $4.02 (entry point)
03/11/13 ZNGA closed at $3.93, above our entry requirement of 3.80

Current Target: $5.75
Current Stop loss: 3.25
Play Entered on: 03/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/02/13


CLOSED Plays


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 60.02

Comments:
03/30/13: I cautioned readers last week that EXPE appeared to be in trouble. Instead of rebounding off technical support at its 100-dma the stock has broken down to new three-month lows. The longer-term up trend also appears to have been broken. That's not a good sign with the market hitting new highs. Thursday saw EXPE pierce support near $60.00 and its 150-dma, plus shares hit our stop loss at $59.75.

Earlier Comments:
I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 29, 2012 - entry price on EXPE @ 61.84, option @ 6.00
symbol: EXPE1418a74.48 '14 JAN $74.48 call - exit $2.65 (-55.8%)

03/28/13 stopped out @ 59.75
03/23/13 new stop loss @ 59.75, you may want to raise yours higher
02/23/13 new stop loss @ 59.25
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 57.40
12/13/12 EXPE began trading ex-dividend (52cents). The option strike on our 2014 calls moved from $75.00 to $74.48.

Chart of EXPE:

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 11/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 64.03

Comments:
03/30/13: A week ago (Friday, March 22nd) MSI had rallied to a new multi-year high but not quite to our exit target of $64.00. We decided to go ahead and exit positions on Monday, March 25th. MSI was kind enough to gap open higher on Monday at $63.71. Our option exit was $6.30 (bid). If you chose to wait and exit at $64.00, which MSI hit on Thursday, the exit would have been $6.45.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 26, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 54.11, option @ 2.93
symbol: MSI1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - exit $6.30 (+115.0%)

03/25/13 planned exit at the open
03/23/13 Prepare to exit on Monday morning (Mar. 25th)
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 59.75
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 57.25, adjust exit to $64.00
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 55.75
01/19/13 new stop loss @ 54.75
01/12/13 new stop loss @ 53.75

Chart of MSI,

Current Target:$64.00
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 11/26/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Urban Outfitters - URBN - close: 38.74

Comments:
03/30/13: URBN is almost unchanged for the week. The stock tried to bounce and reversed lower again. Last weekend we decided it was time to throw in the towel on URBN. Our plan was to exit positions on Monday morning, March 25th. We were fortunate that URBN gapped open higher on March 25th at $38.88.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 03, 2013 - entry price on URBN @ 41.22, option @ 4.20
symbol:URBN1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - exit $2.15 (-48.8%)

03/25/13 scheduled exit at the opening bell
03/23/13 prepare to exit on Monday, Mar. 25th at the open
03/16/13 no follow through on the earnings bounce. URBN looks vulnerable here.
03/09/13 Get ready for earnings. URBN is scheduled to report earnings on March 11th.
02/23/13 readers may want to consider scaling back positions or exiting early now.
02/07/13 URBN pre-warning better than expected sales numbers

Chart of URBN:

Current Target: $48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 01/03/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12