Closed Plays


SBUX hit our target.
SCHW was closed on April 29th.
The 2014 WMT calls were closed on April 29th.



Play Updates


Bank of America - BAC - close: 12.24

Comments:
05/04/13: We have reason to be concerned with our BAC trade. The major indices and the financial sector are both breaking out to new highs. Yet BAC is not participating. The stock posted a loss for the week.

I would turn more defensive here and investors may want to scale back positions. I am not suggesting new BAC trades at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $0.25/0.26

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $0.92/0.94

05/04/13 BAC did not participate in the market's rally this past week. Investors should turn more defensive here.

Current Target:$ 18.00
Current Stop loss: 10.90
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Bed Bath & Beyond - BBBY - close: 68.57

Comments:
05/04/13: BBBY stretched its gains to four weeks in a row. The stock had neared round-number resistance at $70.00 on Thursday. Shares failed to participate in the market rally on Friday thanks to an analyst downgrade on Friday morning. BBBY is arguably overbought here and due for a correction lower.

More conservative traders may want to take profits early right here. I would expect a correction toward the $66-65 zone. I am raising our stop loss to $63.75.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 21, 2013 - entry price on BBBY @ 63.06, option @ 5.20
symbol: BBBY1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $7.70/7.85

05/04/13 new stop loss @ 63.75
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 62.25
03/30/13 Nimble traders could exit now (for a small profit) and re-enter positions on a pullback.
03/21/13 trade opens with BBBY opening at $63.06
03/20/13 BBBY meets our entry requirement (close over $62.50) with a close at $63.34

Current Target:$ 74.50
Current Stop loss: 63.75
Play Entered on: 03/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/16/13


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 123.49

Comments:
05/04/13: Another rebound in oil prices and a bullish environment for stocks helped CVX breakout to new all-time highs. Shares nearly hit $124.00 on Friday. Our option has more than doubled. We have been aiming for $124.50. However, I am suggesting we go ahead and take profits now. Exit positions on Monday morning to lock in gains. More aggressive traders could let it ride and just raise your stop loss.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 14, 2013 - entry price on CVX @ 111.38, option @ 3.40
symbol: CVX1418a120 2014 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 7.35/7.50

05/04/13 prepare to exit on Monday morning to lock in gains
04/27/13 more conservative investors may want to take profits now.
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 113.25
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 109.50
02/02/13 do not be surprised to see a pullback now that earnings have been announced.

Current Target:$124.50
Current Stop loss: 113.25
Play Entered on: 01/14/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12


Dollar Tree, Inc. - DLTR - close: 48.66

Comments:
05/04/13: Traders continue to buy the dips in DLTR and the stock has rallied back toward its recent highs near $49.00. While the trend of higher lows is bullish I am not suggesting new positions. DLTR might see round-number resistance at $50.00. Do not be surprised to see a pullback.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 28, 2013 - entry price on DLTR @ 45.25, option @ 4.76
symbol:DLTR1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.50/6.70

04/13/13 new stop loss @ 44.75
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 43.45
More conservative investors might want to take profits as DLTR moves into the $49-50 zone.
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 41.40
02/28/13 trade opened following gap higher, above our trigger

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 44.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 13.83

Comments:
05/04/13: I am surprised that Ford did not deliver a stronger week. However, U.S. auto sales fell below the 15.0 million unit pace in April, breaking a multi-month string of healthy auto sales. March came in at an annual pace of 14.9 million. Ford delivered strong numbers with a +18% jump in April sales over a year ago.

Traders bought the dip at its rising 10-dma. The stock closed at new three-month highs on Friday. I would still consider new bullish positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
Keep in mind that shares of Ford will begin trading ex-dividend on May 1st. The stock is currently yielding 3.1%. Our long-term target is $16.50. You could certainly aim higher. Currently the Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $24.50 target.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 0.60
symbol: F1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 0.61/0.62

- or -

APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 1.22
symbol: F1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.27/1.30

Current Target:$ 16.50
Current Stop loss: 12.40
Play Entered on: 04/29/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 23.96

Comments:
05/04/13: Semiconductor stocks continued to climb last week. The group was actually showing relative strength and INTC has extended its gains to four weeks in a row. There were plenty of articles about INTC choosing a new CEO, Mr. Brian Krzancih.

The trend in INTC is up but shares are overbought with its four-week move from $21 to $24. I would expect a correction. If you're looking for an entry point wait for the pullback.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $26.50 but we may have to exit our 2014 calls before then.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 0.89
symbol:INTC1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.10/1.11

- or -

APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 1.74
symbol:INTC1517a25 2015 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.95/2.00

Current Target: $26.50
Current Stop loss: 21.40
Play Entered on: 04/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 42.24

Comments:
05/04/13: My comments last week still apply. The market's rally made boring, defensive, strong dividend plays like KO less attractive. The stock churned sideways and managed to eke out a small gain.

Earlier Comments:
KO's all-time high is $44.47 from July 1998. We are leaving the long-term exit target at $44.00 but readers may want to seriously consider taking profits early.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed 2014 calls on April 1st, 2013 at the open)
FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.01
symbol: KO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - exit $1.97 (+95.0%)

- or -

FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.75
symbol: KO1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.40/4.55

04/20/13 new stop loss @ 39.65, readers may want to take profits now.
04/01/13 exited 2014 calls at the open. Option @ $1.97 (+95.0%)
03/30/13 prepare to exit our 2014 Jan $40 calls on Monday, April 1st, 2013 at the opening bell to lock in gains. Current bid is $2.09.
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 38.25
03/23/13 new stop loss @ 37.65
Our 2014 calls have almost doubled and readers may want to take profits early right now

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 39.65
Play Entered on: 02/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/13


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 46.23

Comments:
05/04/13: The stock market's breakout rally on Friday sparked a similar move in Macy's. The stock shot past resistance in the $45.00-45.50 zone and closed at new five-year highs. We have about seven trading days left until Macy's reports earnings. Investors might want to take profits now. I am raising our stop loss to $42.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The old all-time highs near $46.50 could be resistance but at the moment we are aiming for $48.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $53 target.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 21, 2013 - entry price on M @ 42.22, option @ 2.85
symbol: M1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $4.30/4.40

05/04/13 new stop loss @ 42.75, investors may want to just take profits now.

Current Target: $48.50
Current Stop loss: 42.75
Play Entered on: 03/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Merck & Co. - MRK - close: 45.67

Comments:
05/04/13: I warned readers that MRK might see some profit taking on its earnings report on May 1st. Sure enough the stock plunged following its results. MRK reported earnings of 85 cents a share, which was six cents better than expected. Revenues were a miss at $10.67 billion for the quarter. More importantly the company issued lower guidance for 2013.

Readers may want to use the company's earnings warning as an excuse to exit bullish positions. I am not suggesting new trades. Although it's worth noting we still have more than 18 months on our 2015 calls. I am leaving our stop loss at $43.40 for now.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed 2014 call position on April 15, 2013)
MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 2.06
symbol: MRK1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - exit $3.60 (+74.7%)

- or -

MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 3.60
symbol: MRK1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $4.10/4.25

05/01/13 MRK lowered its 2013 guidance
04/15/13 closed 2014 calls
04/13/13 prepare to exit 2014 calls on Monday, April 15th at the opening bell.
new stop loss @ 43.40 and new target of $53.50 for 2015 calls.
03/30/13 MRK is not participating in the market's rally or drug sector rally. Investors will want to turn more defensive here.
03/16/13 use the dip to $44.00 as another entry point to buy calls
03/13/13 trade opens with MRK gapping down at $44.54
03/12/13 MRK gaps open higher and closed at $45.04, above our suggested entry (close above $44.25).

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 43.40
Play Entered on: 03/13/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


U.S. Oil (ETF) - USO - close: 34.01

Comments:
05/04/13: It seems that oil prices have disconnected from reality. Week after week we are seeing declining economic data suggesting a weak and getting weaker U.S., Europe and China. So why are oil prices bouncing? At the same time the latest oil inventory report shows U.S. oil inventories at all-time highs. There is no shortage of oil at the moment. Why would oil prices be rising with so much excess supply?

I suspect this is just a technical bounce. The USO is nearing what should be resistance at its trend of lower highs and its 300-dma. Look for a failed rally near $34.50 as a potential entry point to buy puts.

NOTE: Right now this is a put play with 2013 September puts. I am having second thoughts about the USO as viable long-term bullish trading vehicle. The USO should still work as a short-term or intermediate trade but longer-term we may need to find another way to play oil.

Earlier Comments:
There is still a significant risk that Israel and Iran eventually start shooting at each other as Israel tries to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program. If that happens oil will definitely skyrocket higher. However, no one expects any Israel/Iran conflict until late summer. Oil could plunge to new relative lows before that happens.

Here's the plan. We can aim for a drop into the $30-29 zone (target 29.50). The USO has what appears to be significant support near $29.00. If and when the USO nears this support level we can exit our USO puts for a potential profit and switch to buying calls in anticipation of any rising geopolitical risk in the Mideast.

This is a PUT play

- Suggested Positions -
APR 15, 2013 - entry price on USO @ 31.94, option @ 1.39
symbol: USO1321u30 2013 SEP $30 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.58/ 0.61

Current Target:$ 29.50
Current Stop loss: 35.05
Play Entered on: 04/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/06/13


Vodafone Group - VOD - close: 30.34

Comments:
05/04/13: VOD delivered a disappointing performance last week. Shares retreated back toward $30.00, which should be support. The rest of the market was in rally mode. The drama with Verizon (VZ) wanting to buy VOD's stake in Verizon Wireless continues. Two weeks ago the story was VZ offered $100 billion to buy VOD's stake and VOD rejected the offer. Now the rumor mill is suggesting that VZ, since they own the majority stake in Verizon wireless, may decided to not pay any dividends this year and instead pay down debt. This would "rob" VOD of any dividend income from the joint venture. It's an interesting tactic. Currently analysts estimate that VOD's stake should be worth about $120 billion.

VOD's bullish breakout past resistance at $30.00 is still intact. I would still be tempted to buy calls here at current levels.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 26, 2013 - entry price on VOD @ 30.63, option @ 2.07
symbol: VOD1418a30 2014 JAN $30 PUT - current bid/ask $ 1.90/ 1.95

- or -

APR 26, 2013 - entry price on VOD @ 30.63, option @ 1.00
symbol: VOD1517a35 2015 JAN $35 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.85/ 1.10

Current Target:$36.00
Current Stop loss: 28.45
Play Entered on: 04/26/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 79.25

Comments:
05/04/13: It was a relatively quiet week for WMT. Traders bought the dip on Tuesday and the stock is up three days in a row. Yet even with the market's big rally on Friday WMT failed to break out to new highs.

After a three-week churn sideways WMT is no longer overbought but it's upward momentum has slowed as well. A rally past round-number resistance at $80.00 could re-ignite the up trend. We need to keep in mind that WMT is scheduled to report earnings on May 16th. Market participants may want to wait for the earnings results before putting any new money to work. I am not suggesting new positions.

NOTE: Last week we decided to exit our 2014 Jan $75 calls on Monday, April 29th to lock in gains.

- Suggested Positions -
(exited 2014 Jan. $75 calls on Monday, April 29th, 2013)
MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 3.10
symbol: WMT1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - exit $6.05*(+95.1%)

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 2.97
symbol: WMT1517a80 2015 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.55/5.70

04/29/13 planned exit for 2014 calls
*exit price is an estimate. The option did not trade when we closed this part of the play.
04/27/13 prepare to exit our 2014 calls immediately on Monday morning (04/29/13)
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 73.45
04/06/13 new stop loss @ 71.40
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 69.45

Current Target: $85.00-90.00 range
Current Stop loss: 73.45
Play Entered on: 03/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


CLOSED Plays


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 61.87

Comments:
05/04/13: Target achieved.

The stock market's rally on Friday was strong enough to push SBUX toward its 2012 highs near $62.00. Our exit target was hit at $61.50.

We will likely play SBUX again but we'll need to wait for a new entry point. Right now shares are hovering just below likely resistance at $62.00.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 07, 2012 - entry price on SBUX @ 53.43, option @ 3.80
symbol:SBUX1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - exit $5.30 (+39.4%)

05/03/13 target hit @ 61.50
04/27/13 the earnings news is out. investors may want to exit early now
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 54.75, adjust target to $61.50
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 52.75
01/05/13 new stop loss @ 49.85

Chart of SBUX:

Current Target:$ 61.50
Current Stop loss: 54.75
Play Entered on: 12/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


The Charles Schwab Corp. - SCHW - close: 17.47

Comments:
05/04/13: Shares of SCHW had been underperforming the market in recent weeks. Our plan was to exit positions on Monday, April 29th, at the opening bell. The stock opened on Monday at $16.76. Our option exit was $1.05.

The stock market's big rally on Friday sparked a big move in SCHW with a +6.2% gain on Friday and a breakout above its 50-dma.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
JAN 23, 2013 - entry price on SCHW @ 15.74, option @ 0.80
symbol:SCHW1418a17 2014 JAN $17 call - exit $1.05 (+31.2%)

04/29/13 scheduled exit
04/27/13 prepare to exit immediately on Monday morning (04/29/13)
04/20/13 SCHW looks vulnerable following its earnings report and investors may want to exit early.
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 15.90, our call option has more than doubled and readers may want to take profits now.
02/23/13 new stop loss @ $15.20
02/19/13 sold half at the open: option bid @ $1.25 (+56.2%)
02/16/13 prepare to sell half of our position on Tuesday morning, Feb. 19th at the opening bell
02/09/13 investors may want to consider exiting now to book a profit and then jump back in on a correction.

Chart of SCHW:

Current Target: $18.75
Current Stop loss: 15.90
Play Entered on: 01/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/13