Closed Plays


CVX was closed as planned.



Play Updates


Bank of America - BAC - close: 12.24

Comments:
05/11/13: It was another strong week for shares of BAC with a +6.3% gain. The stock has rallied to new 52-week highs. Part of the rally was fueled by news that BAC had settled a legal battle with MBIA. Investors seemed to ignore news that the U.S. government was considering legal action against BAC for selling bad home loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $0.44/0.45

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $1.19/1.22

05/04/13 BAC did not participate in the market's rally this past week. Investors should turn more defensive here.

Current Target:$ 18.00
Current Stop loss: 10.90
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Bed Bath & Beyond - BBBY - close: 69.83

Comments:
05/11/13: BBBY tagged a new multi-month high on May 7th but spent the rest of the week churning sideways. The trend is still higher with traders consistently buying the dips at BBBY's simple 10-dma. However, once that technical support breaks it could spark a larger correction. After five up weeks in a row BBBY is looking overbought here. I am raising our stop loss to $64.65.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 21, 2013 - entry price on BBBY @ 63.06, option @ 5.20
symbol: BBBY1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $8.45/8.55

05/11/13 new stop loss @ 64.65
05/04/13 new stop loss @ 63.75
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 62.25
03/30/13 Nimble traders could exit now (for a small profit) and re-enter positions on a pullback.
03/21/13 trade opens with BBBY opening at $63.06
03/20/13 BBBY meets our entry requirement (close over $62.50) with a close at $63.34

Current Target:$ 74.50
Current Stop loss: 64.65
Play Entered on: 03/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/16/13


Dollar Tree, Inc. - DLTR - close: 49.28

Comments:
05/11/13: DLTR's gains were limited thanks to some minor profit taking on Wednesday and Thursday. The trend is still higher but DLTR has to make it through round-number, psychological resistance at the $50.00 level. DLTR may be due for another pullback soon.

NOTE: DLTR is scheduled to report earnings on May 23rd. More conservative traders may want to take profits prior to the announcement to avoid any bearish surprises.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 28, 2013 - entry price on DLTR @ 45.25, option @ 4.76
symbol:DLTR1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.80/7.00

04/13/13 new stop loss @ 44.75
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 43.45
More conservative investors might want to take profits as DLTR moves into the $49-50 zone.
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 41.40
02/28/13 trade opened following gap higher, above our trigger

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 44.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 14.11

Comments:
05/11/13: Ford's rally ran out of steam on Wednesday. The stock has been drifting sideways the last three days. That's not too surprising with Ford nearing resistance at its January 2013 highs. If F does see a pullback we can watch for support near broken resistance at $13.50.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $16.50. You could certainly aim higher. Currently the Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $24.50 target.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 0.60
symbol: F1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 0.70/0.72

- or -

APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 1.22
symbol: F1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.39/1.41

Current Target:$ 16.50
Current Stop loss: 12.40
Play Entered on: 04/29/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 77.74

Comments:
05/11/13: Our new trade on HON is off to a good start. We added HON to the watch list last week with a plan to buy calls after HON closed above $76.00. Shares met that requirement on May 6th with a close at $76.08. Our traded opened on the 7th with HON opening at $76.20. HON has continued to rally and is currently trading at new all-time highs.

After a multi-day surge higher odds are good we will see HON pullback a bit. Look for a dip near $76.00 as another entry point to launch positions.

Earlier Comments:
Let's keep our position size small to start. We'll initiate the trade with a stop loss at $72.00. Our long-term target is $95.00.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 2.68
symbol: HON1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/3.35

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 4.10
symbol: HON1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 4.40/4.60

05/07/13 Our trade opens
05/06/13 HON meets our entry requirement with a close above $76.00

Chart of HON:

Current Target:$ 95.00
Current Stop loss: 72.00
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 24.50

Comments:
05/11/13: The semiconductor sector and Intel have managed to extend their gains another week. INTC got a boost thanks to a couple of analyst upgrades. This stock is up significantly with a five-week rally and is definitely overbought and due for some profit taking. I suspect that the $25.00 level will likely be psychological resistance. If you're looking for an entry point I suggest waiting for a multi-day correction.

I am raising the stop loss to $21.90. More conservative investors might want to consider a stop; closer to $23.00 instead.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $26.50 but we may have to exit our 2014 calls before then.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 0.89
symbol:INTC1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.31/1.32

- or -

APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 1.74
symbol:INTC1517a25 2015 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 2.13/2.18

05/11/13 new stop loss @ 21.90

Current Target: $26.50
Current Stop loss: 21.90
Play Entered on: 04/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 42.15

Comments:
05/11/13: The upward momentum in shares of KO have stalled with the stock failing to make any progress for the last three weeks in a row. It looks like closing the 2014 calls early to lock in gains may have been the right move. I suspect KO could be setting up for a pullback into the $41-40 zone. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
KO's all-time high is $44.47 from July 1998. We are leaving the long-term exit target at $44.00.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed 2014 calls on April 1st, 2013 at the open)
FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.01
symbol: KO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - exit $1.97 (+95.0%)

- or -

FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.75
symbol: KO1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.40/4.50

04/20/13 new stop loss @ 39.65, readers may want to take profits now.
04/01/13 exited 2014 calls at the open. Option @ $1.97 (+95.0%)
03/30/13 prepare to exit our 2014 Jan $40 calls on Monday, April 1st, 2013 at the opening bell to lock in gains. Current bid is $2.09.
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 38.25
03/23/13 new stop loss @ 37.65
Our 2014 calls have almost doubled and readers may want to take profits early right now

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 39.65
Play Entered on: 02/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/13


Lowe's Companies - LOW - close: 42.07

Comments:
05/11/13: Shares of LOW were a strong outperformer last week thanks to a +6% gain. We added LOW as a watch list candidate last weekend with plans to buy calls if shares could close above $40.25. LOW met that requirement on May 6th with a close at $40.81. Our trade opened on the 7th. The breakout past resistance at $40.00 is very bullish leaving shares of LOW at new all-time highs.

If you missed our entry point I would wait for a pullback. Broken resistance at $40.00 should be new support. There is always the chance that LOW sees a pullback after it reports earnings on May 22nd.

Earlier Comments:
NOTE: LOW is scheduled to report earnings on May 22nd, 2013. LOW's main rival Home Depot (HD) reports earnings on May 21st.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on LOW @ 40.87, option @ 1.57
symbol: LOW1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.99/2.03

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on LOW @ 40.87, option @ 3.52
symbol: LOW1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 4.05/4.15

05/07/13 Our trade opens.
05/06/13 LOW meets our entry requirement with a close above $40.25

Chart of LOW:

Current Target: $49.50
Current Stop loss: 36.90
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 47.23

Comments:
05/11/13: It was an impressive week for shares of Macy's. The stock has broken out past resistance near $46.70 from its prior highs back in 2007. The relative strength in M has been great for the bulls but the company's earnings report could be a catalyst for profit taking. M is scheduled to report earnings on May 15th, before the opening bell.

I am suggesting we take profits immediately and exit positions on Monday morning, May 13th to lock in gains. More aggressive traders might want to consider keeping the trade open and holding over Macy's earnings announcement.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 21, 2013 - entry price on M @ 42.22, option @ 2.85
symbol: M1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $4.80/4.90

05/11/13 prepare to exit positions immediately to lock in gains.
05/04/13 new stop loss @ 42.75, investors may want to just take profits now.

Current Target: $48.50
Current Stop loss: 42.75
Play Entered on: 03/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Merck & Co. - MRK - close: 45.95

Comments:
05/11/13: It looks like the post-earnings sell-off in shares of MRK is over. Traders bought the dip near $45.00 several times last week and MRK is starting to rebound. I am raising our stop loss up to $43.90. More conservative traders may want to raise theirs closer to the May 1st low of $44.60.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed 2014 call position on April 15, 2013)
MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 2.06
symbol: MRK1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - exit $3.60 (+74.7%)

- or -

MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 3.60
symbol: MRK1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $4.20/4.35

05/11/13 new stop loss @ 43.90
05/01/13 MRK lowered its 2013 guidance
04/15/13 closed 2014 calls
04/13/13 prepare to exit 2014 calls on Monday, April 15th at the opening bell.
new stop loss @ 43.40 and new target of $53.50 for 2015 calls.
03/30/13 MRK is not participating in the market's rally or drug sector rally. Investors will want to turn more defensive here.
03/16/13 use the dip to $44.00 as another entry point to buy calls
03/13/13 trade opens with MRK gapping down at $44.54
03/12/13 MRK gaps open higher and closed at $45.04, above our suggested entry (close above $44.25).

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 43.90
Play Entered on: 03/13/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


U.S. Oil (ETF) - USO - close: 34.14

Comments:
05/11/13: The USO just refuses to cooperate with us. This oil ETF has continued to rally even though oil inventories in the U.S are extremely high. There is no shortage of oil at the moment. You'll notice on the chart below that the rally has stalled at resistance near its 300-dma and trend of lower highs. Currently we have a stop loss at $35.05. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop closer to $34.50 instead.

It is definitely worth noting the sudden strength in the U.S. dollar over the last couple of days. If the dollar continues to climb it will put downward pressure on commodities. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

NOTE: Right now this is a put play with 2013 September puts. I am having second thoughts about the USO as viable long-term bullish trading vehicle. The USO should still work as a short-term or intermediate trade but longer-term we may need to find another way to play oil.

Earlier Comments:
There is still a significant risk that Israel and Iran eventually start shooting at each other as Israel tries to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program. If that happens oil will definitely skyrocket higher. However, no one expects any Israel/Iran conflict until late summer. Oil could plunge to new relative lows before that happens.

Here's the plan. We can aim for a drop into the $30-29 zone (target 29.50). The USO has what appears to be significant support near $29.00. If and when the USO nears this support level we can exit our USO puts for a potential profit and switch to buying calls in anticipation of any rising geopolitical risk in the Mideast.

This is a PUT play

- Suggested Positions -
APR 15, 2013 - entry price on USO @ 31.94, option @ 1.39
symbol: USO1321u30 2013 SEP $30 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.52/ 0.55

Current Target:$ 29.50
Current Stop loss: 35.05
Play Entered on: 04/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/06/13


Vodafone Group - VOD - close: 30.12

Comments:
05/11/13: I am growing disappointed with VOD's performance lately. Shares are now down two weeks in a row as excitement over a potential deal with Verizon seems to be cooling. Verizon wants to buy VOD's stake in their joint venture, Verizon Wireless. VZ has already offered $100 billion that VOD has rejected as being too low. The two companies seem to be at a standstill for now. If such a deal does get done it will probably be at a higher premium, which should be bullish for shares of VOD. Meanwhile on a technical basis VOD is flirting with a breakdown below what should be round-number support at $30.00. This is short-term bearish.

I am raising our stop loss up to $28.90. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop closer to $29.50 instead. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 26, 2013 - entry price on VOD @ 30.63, option @ 2.07
symbol: VOD1418a30 2014 JAN $30 PUT - current bid/ask $ 1.75/ 1.85

- or -

APR 26, 2013 - entry price on VOD @ 30.63, option @ 1.00
symbol: VOD1517a35 2015 JAN $35 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.80/ 1.25

05/11/13 new stop loss @ 28.90

Current Target:$36.00
Current Stop loss: 28.90
Play Entered on: 04/26/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 78.89

Comments:
05/11/13: Shares of WMT have essentially churned sideways for the last four weeks. Traders have continued to buy the dips, which is bullish, but WMT can't seem to get past resistance in the $79.50 area. I suspect that investors are waiting to hear from WMT's earnings report and management's guidance.

WMT is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, May 16th, before the opening bell. Wall Street expects a profit of $1.15 a share. If there is any disappointment in the report we could see shares fall back toward the $75-74 zone. On the other hand a strong report could be the catalyst WMT needs to get past the $80.00 level.

NOTE: Since we've already closed the 2014 calls, I am raising our exit target to $89.00.

- Suggested Positions -
(exited 2014 Jan. $75 calls on Monday, April 29th, 2013)
MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 3.10
symbol: WMT1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - exit $6.05*(+95.1%)

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 2.97
symbol: WMT1517a80 2015 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.55/5.65

05/11/13 adjust exit target to $89.00.
04/29/13 planned exit for 2014 calls
*exit price is an estimate. The option did not trade when we closed this part of the play.
04/27/13 prepare to exit our 2014 calls immediately on Monday morning (04/29/13)
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 73.45
04/06/13 new stop loss @ 71.40
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 69.45

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 73.45
Play Entered on: 03/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


CLOSED Plays


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 123.23

Comments:
05/11/13: CVX is actually down about 30 cents for the week. Shares failed to follow the rest of the sector higher. The stock is churning sideways below short-term resistance near $124.00. We made the decision last weekend to close all CVX positions on Monday morning, May 6th. CVX opened May 6th at $123.32.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 14, 2013 - entry price on CVX @ 111.38, option @ 3.40
symbol: CVX1418a120 2014 JAN $120 call - exit $7.20 (+111.7%)

05/06/13 planned exit on May 6th
05/04/13 prepare to exit on Monday morning to lock in gains
04/27/13 more conservative investors may want to take profits now.
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 113.25
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 109.50
02/02/13 do not be surprised to see a pullback now that earnings have been announced.

Chart of CVX:

Current Target:$124.50
Current Stop loss: 113.25
Play Entered on: 01/14/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/22/12