Closed Plays


We closed MRK on Monday. We also exited the 2014 Ford calls and 2014 HON calls on Monday, May 20th.

VOD was stopped out.



Play Updates


Bank of America - BAC - close: 13.24

Comments:
05/25/13: BAC only lost about 20 cents for the week thanks to the rebound off its Thursday morning lows. The stock seems to be retreating from its five-month trend line of higher highs. I would look for support near $12.50 or its 100-dma.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $0.53/0.54

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $1.34/1.35

05/04/13 BAC did not participate in the market's rally this past week. Investors should turn more defensive here.

Current Target:$ 18.00
Current Stop loss: 10.90
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Bed Bath & Beyond - BBBY - close: 68.72

Comments:
05/25/13: BBBY's loss for the week was relatively minor. Shares appeared to be in rally mode again after its mid-May pullback but the market's slide weighed on BBBY's momentum. If the market does see a deeper pullback I still expect BBBY to decline toward $65.00. Our stop loss remains at $64.65.

More conservative investors might want to just take profits right now instead of enduring the decline.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 21, 2013 - entry price on BBBY @ 63.06, option @ 5.20
symbol: BBBY1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $7.80/7.90

05/18/13 BBBY could be poised for a painful pullback here.
05/11/13 new stop loss @ 64.65
05/04/13 new stop loss @ 63.75
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 62.25
03/30/13 Nimble traders could exit now (for a small profit) and re-enter positions on a pullback.
03/21/13 trade opens with BBBY opening at $63.06
03/20/13 BBBY meets our entry requirement (close over $62.50) with a close at $63.34

Current Target:$ 74.50
Current Stop loss: 64.65
Play Entered on: 03/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/16/13


Dollar Tree, Inc. - DLTR - close: 50.24

Comments:
05/25/13: DLTR is up about half a point for the week thanks to a bullish reaction to its earnings news. The company reported on May 23rd. Results were 2 cents better than the 57-cent estimate. Revenues were in-line with estimates. Management raised their fiscal 2014 guidance, which is what probably fueled the rally.

I am sorely tempted to just exit now to lock in gains on this trade but the overall trend remains higher. Currently our stop loss is at $44.75. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop closer to the simple 50-dma (near 47.90).

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 28, 2013 - entry price on DLTR @ 45.25, option @ 4.76
symbol:DLTR1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 7.40/7.60

05/18/13 Readers may want to take profits prior to the earnings report
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 44.75
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 43.45
More conservative investors might want to take profits as DLTR moves into the $49-50 zone.
03/16/13 new stop loss @ 41.40
02/28/13 trade opened following gap higher, above our trigger

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 44.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 14.79

Comments:
05/25/13: It looks like Ford's upward momentum was beginning to stall prior to the market's reversal this past week. Traders did buy the dip on Thursday but I am not convinced the pullback is over.

Our plan was to exit our 2014 calls on Monday, May 20th. We still have the 2015 calls listed. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $16.50. You could certainly aim higher. Currently the Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $24.50 target.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th, at the open)
APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 0.60
symbol: F1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit $1.18 (+96.6%)

- or -

APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 1.22
symbol: F1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.76/1.81

05/20/13 closed the 2014 calls at the open. Option @ +96.6%
05/18/13 prepare to exit the 2014 calls on Monday, May 20th
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 13.40

Current Target:$ 16.50
Current Stop loss: 13.40
Play Entered on: 04/29/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 79.29

Comments:
05/25/13: After an impressive three-week rally in May shares of HON are finally seeing some profit taking. The pullback may not be over yet. Nimble traders could buy dips near $76 and its 50-dma.

Our plan was to exit the 2014 calls on Monday, May 20th. We still have the 2015 calls.

Earlier Comments:
Let's keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th at the open)
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 2.68
symbol: HON1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - exit $5.10 (+90.2%)

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 4.10
symbol: HON1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 5.75/6.05

05/20/13 closed the 2014 calls at the open. option @ +90.2%
05/18/13 prepare to exit 2014 Jan. calls immediately on Monday, May 20th
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 74.50
05/07/13 Our trade opens
05/06/13 HON meets our entry requirement with a close above $76.00

Current Target:$ 95.00
Current Stop loss: 74.50
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 23.92

Comments:
05/25/13: INTC weathered the market's volatility this past week relatively well. Shares are only down a few cents for the week. Yet it does look like INTC may have created a short-term bearish double top at resistance near $24.50. Traders bought the dip on Friday morning near its rising 30-dma but I am not convinced the pullback is over. Odds are good we will see INTC pullback into the $23.00-22.50 area.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $26.50 but we may have to exit our 2014 calls before then.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 0.89
symbol:INTC1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.05/1.07

- or -

APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 1.74
symbol:INTC1517a25 2015 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.88/1.90

05/18/13 The rally has stalled. INTC might correct lower soon
05/11/13 new stop loss @ 21.90

Current Target: $26.50
Current Stop loss: 21.90
Play Entered on: 04/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 42.24

Comments:
05/25/13: Hmm... investors bought the dip in KO right where you could expect them to - near prior support at its early May low and technical support at its rising 50-dma. This past week those two levels happen to be the same, near $41.50. While Friday's bounce is bullish, bigger picture it seems that KO's upward momentum could be in trouble. I would not be surprised to see KO correct lower toward the $41-40 zone.

NOTE: We closed the 2014 calls back in April. All we have left right now are the 2015 calls. I am adjusting our long-term target to $46.00.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed 2014 calls on April 1st, 2013 at the open)
FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.01
symbol: KO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - exit $1.97 (+95.0%)

- or -

FEB 12, 2013 - entry price on KO @ 38.05, option @ 1.75
symbol: KO1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.80/4.90

05/25/13 adjust long-term target to $46.00
04/20/13 new stop loss @ 39.65, readers may want to take profits now.
04/01/13 exited 2014 calls at the open. Option @ $1.97 (+95.0%)
03/30/13 prepare to exit our 2014 Jan $40 calls on Monday, April 1st, 2013 at the opening bell to lock in gains. Current bid is $2.09.
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 38.25
03/23/13 new stop loss @ 37.65
Our 2014 calls have almost doubled and readers may want to take profits early right now

Current Target: $46.00
Current Stop loss: 39.65
Play Entered on: 02/12/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/13


Lowe's Companies - LOW - close: 42.64

Comments:
05/25/13: Shares of LOW are holding up pretty well with a three-cent loss for the week. The company reported earnings on May 22nd. The company missed Wall Street's estimate of 51 cents with an EPS of $0.49. Q1 revenues were also a miss at $13.09 billion.

The stock actually rallied on the news but quickly reversed after tagging a new high. At the moment LOW is holding short-term support near $42.00 yet I would expect a correction back toward what should be stronger support near $40.00. We can look for a new entry point on a bounce from the $40 level.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on LOW @ 40.87, option @ 1.57
symbol: LOW1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.11/2.15

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on LOW @ 40.87, option @ 3.52
symbol: LOW1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/4.50

05/22/13 LOW reported earnings and missed estimates.
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 39.00, LOW could see a pullback after its earnings report
05/07/13 Our trade opens.
05/06/13 LOW meets our entry requirement with a close above $40.25

Current Target: $49.50
Current Stop loss: 39.00
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


Marvell Technology - MRVL - close: 11.34

Comments:
05/25/13: It was a volatile week for shares of MRVL with the market's movement and then MRVL's earnings report on Thursday night. Analysts were expecting a profit of 14 cents a share. MRVL delivered 19 cents with revenues coming in above expectations. That earnings beat might be a little exaggerated thanks to MRVL buying back 20 million shares in the first quarter.

The stock gapped open higher on Friday in reaction to earnings but traders sold the rally and MRVL gave back almost all of its gains. Analysts reaction to the earnings report has been mixed.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time but traders could use a bounce off its 50-dma as a new entry point.

- Suggested *Small* Positions -
MAY 13, 2013 - entry price on MRVL @ 11.25, option @ 0.78
symbol: MRVL1418a13 2014 JAN $13 call - current bid/ask $0.76/0.79

- or -

MAY 13, 2013 - entry price on MRVL @ 11.25, option @ 0.97
symbol: MRVL1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $0.92/1.04

Current Target: $15.00
Current Stop loss: 10.25
Play Entered on: 05/13/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 36.45

Comments:
05/25/13: It has been a volatile two weeks for NTAP with the stock ricocheting between short-term support near $36.00 and resistance near $39.00. On May 21st the company reported earnings of 69 cents per share. That was one cent above estimates. Revenues were a miss at $1.72 billion for the quarter. The company issued an earnings warning for the current quarter and guiding below consensus estimates. Oddly enough NTAP garnered bullish analyst comments following its report in spite of the warning.

I am not suggesting new positions. If NTAP breaks support at $36.00 it will likely fall quickly to the next support level at $35.00. Beyond that NTAP will hit our stop loss at $34.90.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: NTAP's point & figure chart is bullish with a $58 target.

- Suggested *Small* Positions -
MAY 17, 2013 - entry price on NTAP @ 38.93, option @ 3.35
symbol: NTAP1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $1.99/2.00

- or -

MAY 17, 2013 - entry price on NTAP @ 38.93, option @ 5.20
symbol: NTAP1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $3.55/3.70

05/18/13 adjust stop loss to $34.90
05/17/13 trade opens on NTAP's gap open higher at $38.93
05/16/13 NTAP met our entry requirement with a close above $37.15

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 34.90
Play Entered on: 05/17/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/11/13


U.S. Oil (ETF) - USO - close: 33.37

Comments:
05/25/13: The rising dollar should be putting more pressure on oil prices. At the same time we have record levels of oil inventory in the U.S. which is another reason we should see oil prices slipping lower. The USO did see a pullback this past week but I'm not convinced enough to suggest new bearish positions.

The USO almost met our exit (stop loss) requirements this past week. I recently changed the requirement to exit as a close above $34.50. Shares briefly traded above $34.50 this past week before reversing lower.

If we see the USO break down under the $32.75 level again then it might signal a drop back toward $31.00.

NOTE: Right now this is a put play with 2013 September puts.

Earlier Comments:
There is still a significant risk that Israel and Iran eventually start shooting at each other as Israel tries to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program. If that happens oil will definitely skyrocket higher. However, no one expects any Israel/Iran conflict until late summer. Oil could plunge to new relative lows before that happens.

This is a PUT play

- Suggested Positions -
APR 15, 2013 - entry price on USO @ 31.94, option @ 1.39
symbol: USO1321u30 2013 SEP $30 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.65/ 0.66

05/18/13 adjust stop loss strategy to: if we see the USO close above $34.50, then exit immediately the next day!

Current Target:$ 29.50
Current Stop loss: see above
Play Entered on: 04/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/06/13


Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 77.31

Comments:
05/25/13: WMT has been down every day since its earnings report on May 16th. That changed on Friday with a +1.28% rebound. I do believe that this is just a short-term bounce and that WMT will most likely correct into the $75-74 zone. Wait for that pullback before considering new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
(exited 2014 Jan. $75 calls on Monday, April 29th, 2013)
MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 3.10
symbol: WMT1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - exit $6.05*(+95.1%)

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 2.97
symbol: WMT1517a80 2015 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.85/5.00

05/16/13 WMT reports earnings that miss estimates, miss revenues, and guides lower.
05/11/13 adjust exit target to $89.00.
04/29/13 planned exit for 2014 calls
*exit price is an estimate. The option did not trade when we closed this part of the play.
04/27/13 prepare to exit our 2014 calls immediately on Monday morning (04/29/13)
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 73.45
04/06/13 new stop loss @ 71.40
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 69.45

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 73.45
Play Entered on: 03/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


CLOSED Plays


Merck & Co. - MRK - close: 47.16

Comments:
05/25/13: Murphy's law is alive and well in the stock market. MRK had been underperforming the market and last weekend we decided to exit positions on Monday, May 20th, to lock in gains and avoid any potential losses on a breakdown.

MRK did not see any follow through on the bearish reversal from two weeks ago. Instead shares reversed again, higher, and rallied to new four-week highs.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed 2014 call position on April 15, 2013)
MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 2.06
symbol: MRK1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - exit $3.60 (+74.7%)

- or -


(closed on Monday, May 20th)
MAR 13, 2013 - entry price on MRK @ 44.54, option @ 3.60
symbol: MRK1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - exit @ $4.25 (+18.0%)

05/20/13 closed the 2015 calls
05/18/13 prepare to exit immediately on May 20th at the open
05/11/13 new stop loss @ 43.90
05/01/13 MRK lowered its 2013 guidance
04/15/13 closed 2014 calls
04/13/13 prepare to exit 2014 calls on Monday, April 15th at the opening bell.
new stop loss @ 43.40 and new target of $53.50 for 2015 calls.
03/30/13 MRK is not participating in the market's rally or drug sector rally. Investors will want to turn more defensive here.
03/16/13 use the dip to $44.00 as another entry point to buy calls
03/13/13 trade opens with MRK gapping down at $44.54
03/12/13 MRK gaps open higher and closed at $45.04, above our suggested entry (close above $44.25).

Chart of MRK:

Current Target: $53.50
Current Stop loss: 43.90
Play Entered on: 03/13/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/13


Vodafone Group - VOD - close: 29.61

Comments:
05/25/13: VOD has not cooperated with us. The market's weakness on Wednesday and Thursday was strong enough to push shares below their 50-dma and below the $29.00 mark. Our stop loss, at $28.90, was hit on Thursday.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 26, 2013 - entry price on VOD @ 30.63, option @ 2.07
symbol: VOD1418a30 2014 JAN $30 CALL - exit $1.10 (-46.8%)

- or -

APR 26, 2013 - entry price on VOD @ 30.63, option @ 1.00
symbol: VOD1517a35 2015 JAN $35 CALL - exit $0.85*(-15.0%)

05/23/13 stopped out at $28.90
*option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was closed.
05/11/13 new stop loss @ 28.90

Chart of VOD:

Current Target:$36.00
Current Stop loss: 28.90
Play Entered on: 04/26/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13