Closed Plays


USO has been stopped out.



Play Updates


Bank of America - BAC - close: 13.07

Comments:
06/16/13: The financial sector was one of the market's worst performers last week. Yet it looks like the group is consolidating sideways, albeit with a bearish trend of lower highs. BAC is following suit. Currently BAC is down two weeks in a row but it's holding above short-term resistance in the $12.85 area. If this level breaks then look for a pullback toward the $12.00 mark.

Note: you could argue that BAC has formed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern over the last five to six weeks. If that's true it would signal a drop toward the $11.00-10.75 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $0.47/0.48

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $1.29/1.30

05/04/13 BAC did not participate in the market's rally this past week. Investors should turn more defensive here.

Current Target:$ 18.00
Current Stop loss: 10.90
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 15.37

Comments:
06/16/13: Ford produced a quiet week of consolidating lower. The last couple of days has seen the stock fail at its simple 10-dma, which is short-term bearish. A dip back toward $15.00 is likely but I would not be surprised to see a correction toward $14.00 if the market breaks down.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th, at the open)
APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 0.60
symbol: F1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit $1.18 (+96.6%)

- or -

APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 1.22
symbol: F1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 2.17/2.20

06/01/13 investors may want to exit our 2015 calls now with a bid at $2.34 (+91.8%)
06/01/13 adjust long-term target to $17.75
05/20/13 closed the 2014 calls at the open. Option @ +96.6%
05/18/13 prepare to exit the 2014 calls on Monday, May 20th
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 13.40

Current Target:$ 17.75
Current Stop loss: 13.40
Play Entered on: 04/29/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 78.18

Comments:
06/16/13: HON continued drifting lower last week yet traders were buying dips near its 40-dma. Very similar to the S&P 500 index, shares of HON have a three-week trend of lower highs that is running counter to the longer-term up trend of higher lows. I would still expect HON to find support in the $76-75 zone but if the market rally breaks down we will probably see HON hit our stop at $74.50.

Earlier Comments:
Let's keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th at the open)
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 2.68
symbol: HON1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - exit $5.10 (+90.2%)

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 4.10
symbol: HON1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 5.30/5.50

05/20/13 closed the 2014 calls at the open. option @ +90.2%
05/18/13 prepare to exit 2014 Jan. calls immediately on Monday, May 20th
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 74.50
05/07/13 Our trade opens
05/06/13 HON meets our entry requirement with a close above $76.00

Current Target:$ 95.00
Current Stop loss: 74.50
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 24.92

Comments:
06/16/13: INTC managed a gain for the week thanks to investors still buying dips at its rising 20 & 30-dma. Yet the stock has found new short-term resistance in the $25.10 area. If the market breaks down I would expect INTC to correct lower into the $23.50-23.00 zone.

Earlier Comments:
Please note that I am adjusting our exit strategy. We want to exit our 2014 calls when INTC hits $26.50. We will plan to exit our 2015 calls at $28.00.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 0.89
symbol:INTC1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.62/1.64

- or -

APR 24, 2013 - entry price on INTC @ 23.28, option @ 1.74
symbol:INTC1517a25 2015 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 2.52/2.55

06/08/13 adjust exit strategy:
plan to exit the 2014 calls when INTC hits $26.50
plan to exit the 2015 calls when INTC hits $28.00
05/18/13 The rally has stalled. INTC might correct lower soon
05/11/13 new stop loss @ 21.90

Current Target: $26.50 & $28.00 (see above)
Current Stop loss: 21.90
Play Entered on: 04/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Lowe's Companies - LOW - close: 41.16

Comments:
06/16/13: After chopping sideways the last few days LOW posted a small loss for the week. Shares are now down three weeks in a row but up from the June 6th low. The $39.50 level should be support and it's now bolstered by the rising 100-dma. If LOW breaks down below this level it will hit our stop loss at $39.00. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Fed meeting this week I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on LOW @ 40.87, option @ 1.57
symbol: LOW1418a45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.51/1.55

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on LOW @ 40.87, option @ 3.52
symbol: LOW1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.75/3.85

05/22/13 LOW reported earnings and missed estimates.
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 39.00, LOW could see a pullback after its earnings report
05/07/13 Our trade opens.
05/06/13 LOW meets our entry requirement with a close above $40.25

Current Target: $49.50
Current Stop loss: 39.00
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 37.90

Comments:
06/16/13: It was a bumpy week for shares of NTAP. Shares closed the week almost unchanged and still respecting the trend of higher lows, at least for now. If the stock were to break down, look for support near $36 and its 50-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: NTAP's point & figure chart is bullish with a $58 target.

- Suggested *Small* Positions -
MAY 17, 2013 - entry price on NTAP @ 38.93, option @ 3.35
symbol: NTAP1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $2.52/2.57

- or -

MAY 17, 2013 - entry price on NTAP @ 38.93, option @ 5.20
symbol: NTAP1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.35/4.50

05/18/13 adjust stop loss to $34.90
05/17/13 trade opens on NTAP's gap open higher at $38.93
05/16/13 NTAP met our entry requirement with a close above $37.15

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 34.90
Play Entered on: 05/17/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/11/13


Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - close: 74.87

Comments:
06/16/13: Our WMT trade could be in trouble. There was no follow through on the bounce two weeks ago. Instead WMT has rolled over again and is back to testing support near $74.50 and its simple 100-dma. There is possible support at $74.00 and likely support at the 200-dma but the 200-dma is at $73.40. Our stop loss is at $73.45.

Recently there has been more evidence that the global economy and even the U.S. economy is slowing down. If this trend of negative economic data continues it could weigh on shares of WMT and drag the stock lower. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
(exited 2014 Jan. $75 calls on Monday, April 29th, 2013)
MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 3.10
symbol: WMT1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - exit $6.05*(+95.1%)

- or -

MAR 05, 2013 - entry price on WMT @ 73.47, option @ 2.97
symbol: WMT1517a80 2015 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/3.95

06/07/13 WMT announces another $15 billion stock buyback program
06/01/13 WMT has pulled back just as expected.
05/16/13 WMT reports earnings that miss estimates, miss revenues, and guides lower.
05/11/13 adjust exit target to $89.00.
04/29/13 planned exit for 2014 calls
*exit price is an estimate. The option did not trade when we closed this part of the play.
04/27/13 prepare to exit our 2014 calls immediately on Monday morning (04/29/13)
04/13/13 new stop loss @ 73.45
04/06/13 new stop loss @ 71.40
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 69.45

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 73.45
Play Entered on: 03/05/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/02/13


CLOSED Plays


U.S. Oil (ETF) - USO - close: 34.74

Comments:
06/16/13: We have been concerned with our USO trade for a while. I recently outlined the risk that the USO could be forming an inverse (bullish version) of a head-and-shoulders pattern. Oil has rallied two weeks in a row. Friday crude oil prices rallied on geopolitical worries with the U.S. getting involved with the civil war in Syria.

Friday morning saw the USO oil ETF gap open higher at $34.76. Our stop loss was $34.75 so the trade closed immediately. This rally is a bullish breakout over one of the USO's long-term trend of lower highs.

NOTE: Right now this is a put play with 2013 September puts.

This is a PUT play

- Suggested Positions -
APR 15, 2013 - entry price on USO @ 31.94, option @ 1.39
symbol: USO1321u30 2013 SEP $30 PUT - exit $0.26 (-81.2%)

06/14/13 stopped out on gap higher at $34.76
06/08/13 adjust the stop loss strategy to $34.75, exit on an intraday trade at this level or higher
05/18/13 adjust stop loss strategy to: if we see the USO close above $34.50, then exit immediately the next day!

Chart of USO:

Current Target:$ 29.50
Current Stop loss: 34.75
Play Entered on: 04/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/06/13