Editor's Note:

ODFL has graduated from the watch list to our play list.


Closed Plays


K, M, and MNST were stopped out.



Play Updates


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 47.10

Comments:
08/18/13: There were no surprises from AIG. We've been expecting a dip toward $47.00 and I suspect shares will decline toward the 50-dma near $46.00. If we see AIG hold support near $46.00 then we can re-evaluate adding or starting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 15, 2013 - entry price on AIG @ 46.99, option @ 2.50
symbol: AIG1418a50 2014 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $1.87/1.91

- or -

JUL 15, 2013 - entry price on AIG @ 46.99, option @ 4.05
symbol: AIG1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $3.40/3.50

08/04/13 new stop loss @ 43.75
07/15/13 trade opens. AIG opens at $46.99
07/14/13 AIG came within a penny of hitting our new entry trigger (closing above $46.75). We are adding it as a new play tonight. Buy calls on Monday morning. Move the stop loss up to $42.40.
07/07/13 adjust entry strategy: wait for shares to close above $46.75 and then buy calls the next day. Stop loss at $41.40. Target 55.00.
06/16/13 adjust entry strategy: move the buy-the-dip trigger to $40.00, from 38.50. Move the stop loss to $36.35 from 34.75.

Current Target:$ 54.75
Current Stop loss: 43.75
Play Entered on: 07/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/01/13


Bank of America - BAC - close: 14.42

Comments:
08/18/13: Shares of BAC are only down three cents for the week thanks to investors buying the dip on Friday morning. I am still expecting shares to retest what should be support near the $14.00 level. If the market sell-off gets too violent we could see BAC test its 100-dma near $13.25.

FYI: Bank analyst Dick Bove told CNBC this past week that he thought BAC and Citigroup (C) shares could double over the next couple of years.

- Suggested Positions -
(exit target hit on 07/23/13 @ $15.00)
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit $1.04 (+136.3%)

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $1.69/1.70

07/23/13 $15.00 exit target hit for the 2014 Jan. $15 calls.
07/20/13 new stop loss @ 12.75. Adjust the exit target for the 2014 calls to exit when BAC hits $15.00. Our exit for the 2015 calls is $18.00 on BAC
07/07/13 new stop loss @ 11.35
05/04/13 BAC did not participate in the market's rally this past week. Investors should turn more defensive here.

Current Target: BAC @ 15.00 for 2014 calls. BAC @ $18 for 2015 call
Current Stop loss: 12.75
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


Citigroup, Inc. - C - close: 50.35

Comments:
08/18/13: The pullback in Citigroup has been mild. The stock is testing what should be support near $50.00 and its 50-dma. If the profit taking continues the next level of support is likely the $48.00 level.

FYI: Bank analyst Dick Bove told CNBC this past week that he thought BAC and Citigroup (C) shares could double over the next couple of years.

- Suggested Positions -
(exited the 2014 calls on July 22nd, 2013 at the open)
JUN 21, 2013 - entry price on C @ 46.00, option @ 2.45
symbol: C1418a50 2014 JAN $50 call - exit $5.00 (+104.0%)

- or -

JUN 21, 2013 - entry price on C @ 46.00, option @ 3.65
symbol: C1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 4.35/4.45

08/04/13 new stop loss @ 47.75
07/22/13 scheduled exit for the 2014 Jan. $46 calls at the open.
07/21/13 prepare to exit our 2014 calls on Monday morning (07/22/2013)
07/21/13 new stop loss @ 45.75
07/14/13 new stop loss @ 44.65
06/23/13 adjust stop loss to $41.60
06/21/13 triggered on a dip at $46.00

Current Target:$ 59.00
Current Stop loss: 47.75
Play Entered on: 06/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/25/13


Cypres Semiconductor - CY - close: 11.97

Comments:
08/18/13: The stock market sell-off on Thursday seemed to hit the semiconductor sector and shares of CY especially hard. CY broke down under short-term support near $12.40 and fell to the $11.80 level on Thursday. I cautioned readers last week that we could see CY correct lower into the $11.85-11.65 zone. Now I'm wondering if we're going to see CY retest the $11.50 level. More conservative investors might want to raise their stop loss.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 19, 2013 - entry price on CY @ 12.50, option @ 1.02*
symbol: CY1418a13 2014 JAN $13 call - current bid/ask $ 0.55/0.65

- or -

JUL 19, 2013 - entry price on CY @ 12.50, option @ 1.20*
symbol: CY1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 0.85/1.00

07/21/13 new stop loss @ 11.35
07/19/13 trade opened. CY opens at $12.50
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
07/18/13 CY meets our entry requirement with a close above $12.10

Current Target: $14.75 for the 2014 calls, 16.00 for the 2015 calls
Current Stop loss: 11.35
Play Entered on: 06/21/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/14/13


Walt Disney - DIS - close: 62.17

Comments:
08/18/13: After failing near its July highs (around $67) DIS has produced a two-week correction lower. The stock's breakdown below its 100-dma is technically bearish. Shares are now testing support near their June lows around the $62 level. I would be tempted to buy a bounce from here but investors may want to wait for a new close above the 50-dma. If there is any follow through lower this week then we'll likely see DIS hit our stop loss at $61.45. The low on Friday was $61.71.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 16, 2013 - entry price on DIS @ 65.00, option @ 1.82
symbol: DIS1418a70 2014 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 0.73/0.76

- or -

JUL 16, 2013 - entry price on DIS @ 65.00, option @ 4.70
symbol: DIS1517a70 2015 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 3.30/3.40

07/16/13 buy-the-dip trigger hit at $65.00
07/14/13 new entry strategy: adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $65.00
move the stop loss to $61.45. Move the target to $79.00
adjust the option strikes
07/07/13 adjust entry trigger from $57.00 to $58.00

Current Target:$ 79.00
Current Stop loss: 61.45
Play Entered on: 07/16/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/01/13


Eastman Chemical Co. - EMN - close: 77.85

Comments:
08/18/13: The profit taking in EMN continues with shares giving back more than two dollars for the week. Prior resistance in the $75-76 zone should be new support. I would be tempted to buy calls on a dip or a bounce in the $75.50 area.

Our long-term target for the 2014 call is $84. Our long-term target for the 2015 call is $95.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $91 target.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 18, 2013 - entry price on EMN @ 75.34, option @ 3.60*
symbol: EMN1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.10/4.20

- or -

JUL 18, 2013 - entry price on EMN @ 75.34, option @ 4.90*
symbol: EMN1517a90 2015 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 5.30/5.60

08/04/13 new stop loss @ 74.40
07/18/13 Trade opened. EMN opens at $75.34
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
07/17/13 EMN meets our entry requirement with a close above $75.25

Current Target: 2014 calls: target $84 on EMN. 2015 calls: target $95
Current Stop loss: 74.40
Play Entered on: 07/18/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/14/13


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 16.30

Comments:
08/18/13: Ford is down four days in a row and shares gave up about 70 cents for the week. The stock found support near the 50-dma back in June and Ford ended the week sitting on this technical support at its 50-dma.

Should the correction in Ford continue there is potential support near $16.00 and if the $16 level fails then it could signal a decline toward the $15.00 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th, at the open)
APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 0.60
symbol: F1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit $1.18 (+96.6%)

- or -

APR 29, 2013 - entry price on F @ 13.73, option @ 1.22
symbol: F1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 2.68/2.71

08/04/13 new stop loss @ 14.85
07/07/13 new stop loss @ 14.25
06/01/13 investors may want to exit our 2015 calls now with a bid at $2.34 (+91.8%)
06/01/13 adjust long-term target to $17.75
05/20/13 closed the 2014 calls at the open. Option @ +96.6%
05/18/13 prepare to exit the 2014 calls on Monday, May 20th
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 13.40

Current Target:$ 17.75
Current Stop loss: 14.85
Play Entered on: 04/29/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/20/13


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 81.96

Comments:
08/18/13: HON has produced a -3% correction from its early August closing high. Shares should find support in the $81-80 zone. More conservative investors might want to raise their stop closer to $80.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our initial plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th at the open)
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 2.68
symbol: HON1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - exit $5.10 (+90.2%)

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 4.10
symbol: HON1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 6.25/6.40

08/04/13 new stop loss @ 77.45
07/14/13 new stop loss at $75.75
05/20/13 closed the 2014 calls at the open. option @ +90.2%
05/18/13 prepare to exit 2014 Jan. calls immediately on Monday, May 20th
05/18/13 new stop loss @ 74.50
05/07/13 Our trade opens
05/06/13 HON meets our entry requirement with a close above $76.00

Current Target:$ 95.00
Current Stop loss: 77.45
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13


JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPM - close: 53.29

Comments:
08/18/13: Banking giant JPM was not immune to the market's correction. The stock is down two weeks in a row and inching closer to support near its 100-dma. On the chart below you can see that investors bought the dip at the 100-dma in April, Mary, and June. If we see JPM close below its 100-dma (and the $52.00 level) it would be very as a very bearish development. Traders may want to consider buying calls on a dip at this key moving average.

- Suggested Positions -
JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 1.60
symbol: JPM1418a55 2014 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 1.87/1.90

- or -

JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 3.80
symbol: JPM1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 4.25/4.35

07/21/13 new stop loss @ 49.65
07/14/13 new stop loss @ 48.75

Chart of JPM:
Current Target: $64.00
Current Stop loss: 49.65
Play Entered on: 06/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/25/13


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 42.20

Comments:
08/18/13: NTAP only lost 32 cents for the week but it was a volatile week. The company reported earnings on August 14th. The bottom line results were four cents better than expected but NTAP missed the revenue estimate.

The stock gapped down by almost $2.00 on Thursday morning as investors reacted to the news. Yet multiple analysts defended the stock and suggested traders buy NTAP on weakness. Shares managed to rebound pretty quickly and pared its post-earnings losses.

Currently we have a stop loss at $39.25. More conservative investors may want to raise their stop closer to the $40.00 level.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: NTAP's point & figure chart is bullish with a $58 target.

- Suggested *Small* Positions -
MAY 17, 2013 - entry price on NTAP @ 38.93, option @ 3.35
symbol: NTAP1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $3.90/4.00

- or -

MAY 17, 2013 - entry price on NTAP @ 38.93, option @ 5.20
symbol: NTAP1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $6.40/6.55

08/11/13 new stop loss @ 39.25
08/04/13 new stop loss @ 38.75
07/21/13 new stop loss @ 36.85
05/18/13 adjust stop loss to $34.90
05/17/13 trade opens on NTAP's gap open higher at $38.93
05/16/13 NTAP met our entry requirement with a close above $37.15

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 39.25
Play Entered on: 05/17/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/11/13


Old Dominion Freight Line - ODFL - close: 44.63

Comments:
08/18/13: ODFL was a watch list candidate. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $45.50 and then buy calls the next day. ODFL is in the transportation sector and shares have continued to outperform most of its peers in the transports. The stock met our entry point requirement on August 13th with a close at $45.65. Our trade opened on the 14th. Since then shares have drifted lower toward their 20 and 30-dma. Investors might want to consider buying calls on a dip near the 50-dma (currently near $43.60) or as an alternative wait for a new high above $45.70.

Keep in mind that ODFL's long-term trend is still higher but if the broader market accelerates lower we would expect ODFL to see some profit taking.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 14, 2013 - entry price on ODFL @ 45.62, option @ 1.25
symbol: ODFL1418a50 2014 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $0.75/1.20

08/14/13 trade opens. ODFL opens at $45.62.
08/13/13 ODFL meets our entry requirement with close at $45.65
08/11/13 adjust the entry trigger. Wait for ODFL to close above $45.50 instead of $45.25.

Chart of ODFL:

Current Target: $54.00
Current Stop loss: 41.95
Play Entered on: 08/14/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/28/13


PetSmart, Inc. - PETM - close: 73.46

Comments:
08/18/13: It was a quiet week for shares of PETM. The stock has spent the last two weeks churning sideways in the $73-75 zone. PETM tagged $75.00 on August 5th making it an all-time high. If the market continues to sink we could see PETM correct lower toward the $72-70 zone. Of course this could be a volatile week for PETM no matter what the market does. The company is scheduled to report earnings on August 21st. The announcement is before the opening bell. Wall Street expects a profit of 86 cents a share.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. This past week was not a good one for retailers with several companies lowering guidance for the rest of the year. That could be a warning signal that consumers also cut back on spending for their pets.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 16, 2013 - entry price on PETM @ 72.70, option @ 3.40
symbol:PETM1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/3.60

- or -

JUL 16, 2013 - entry price on PETM @ 72.70, option @ 5.15*
symbol:PETM1517a80 2015 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/5.80

08/11/13 new stop loss @ 69.40
08/04/13 new stop loss @ 68.90
07/16/13 trade opened. PETM opens at $72.70
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
07/15/13 PETM meets our entry requirements with a close above $72.50

Current Target: Target for 2014 calls: PETM @ 79.00, 2015 target @ 84
Current Stop loss: 69.40
Play Entered on: 07/16/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/14/13


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 157.93

Comments:
08/18/13: Our UNP trade could be in trouble. The month of August has seen UNP sink under a short-term trend of lower highs and lower lows. This past week saw UNP breakdown below its simple 50-dma. I suspect that if the market continues to sink we will watch UNP dip toward its rising 100-dma currently near $153.50.

I am adjusting our stop loss from $153.00 to $152.00. More aggressive traders might want to adjust their stop so it's below the $150.00 level while more conservative investors may just want to abandon ship right now and exit early. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $185.00 for the 2014 calls and $200 for the 2015 calls.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 22, 2013 - entry price on UNP @ 163.80, option @ 3.10
symbol: UNP1418a180 2014 JAN $180 call - current bid/ask $ 1.19/1.24

- or -

JUL 22, 2013 - entry price on UNP @ 163.80, option @ 4.75
symbol: UNP1517a200 2015 JAN $200 call - current bid/ask $ 2.97/3.15

08/18/13 adjust stop loss to $152.00.
07/22/13 trade will open.
07/19/13 UNP closed above our trigger
07/14/13 adjust entry trigger to $162.00, adjust stop loss to $153.00

Current Target:
Exit 2014 calls when UNP hits $185.00, 2015 calls @ $200
Current Stop loss: 152.00
Play Entered on: 07/22/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/08/13


Whole Foods Market - WFM - close: 52.96

Comments:
08/18/13: All the bad news we got out of the retail sector this past week does not bode well for WFM. If consumers are cutting back on their discretionary spending are they also cutting back on their high-end groceries? Or like so many believe, the high-end consumer is still doing just fine and thus WFM will not suffer as badly as other firms affected by consumer spending?

The stock id breakdown below support near $54 and its 50-dma. If WFM doesn't bounce from Friday's close then the next level of support could be the $50.00 level.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 10, 2013 - entry price on WFM @ 54.53, option @ 2.10
symbol: WFM1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 1.02/1.05

- or -

JUL 10, 2013 - entry price on WFM @ 54.53, option @ 6.20
symbol: WFM1517a60 2015 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 4.60/4.80

Current Target: $59.75 for the 2014 calls, $64.00 for the 2015 calls
Current Stop loss: 49.75
Play Entered on: 07/10/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/07/13


CLOSED Plays


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 62.95

Comments:
08/18/13: Our Kellogg play has been stopped out. The market's current sell-off has been painful for high-dividend yielding stocks. The rising yield on the 10-year treasury makes these stocks less attractive. Shares of K produced a sharp, three-day plunge. Friday's session saw K underperform with a -2.3% loss and hit our stop loss at $63.75 in the process. It didn't help that K's main rival General Mills (GIS) was downgraded on Friday.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 22, 2013 - entry price on K @ 67.21, option @ 2.10
symbol: K1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - exit $0.85 (-59.5%)

08/16/13 stopped out
07/22/13 trade will open.
07/19/13 K closed above $67.00, meeting our entry point requirement

Chart of K:

Current Target:$ 74.75
Current Stop loss: 63.75
Play Entered on: 07/22/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/16/13


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 44.99

Comments:
08/18/13: It was a terrible week for retail names. Kohl's (KSS), Jos A. Banks (JOSB), Nordstrom (JWN), Wal-mart (WMT) and Macy's all lowered their guidance due to soft sales. Macy's reported earnings on August 14th and missed estimates by six cents. They missed the revenue number as well. Shares of M gapped down on the 14th at $46.69. That was below our stop loss at $47.25 so our trade closed that morning. Congratulations to anyone who took my suggestion to buy puts prior to the earnings announcement.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 09, 2013 - entry price on M @ 50.50, option @ 1.85
symbol: M1418a55 2014 JAN $55 call - exit $0.55 (-70.2%)

- or -

JUL 09, 2013 - entry price on M @ 50.50, option @ 4.40
symbol: M1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - exit $2.70 (-38.6%)

08/14/13 stopped out on gap down at $46.69. Stop loss was $47.25.
sell-off a reaction to Macy's disappointing earnings results and guidance.

Chart of M:
Current Target: $59.00
Current Stop loss: 47.25
Play Entered on: 07/09/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/07/13


Monster Beverage Corp. - MNST - close: 58.24

Comments:
08/18/13: The Friday, August 9th intraday reversal proved to be a top for the stock. Shares of MNST have been down every day since. The stock broke down below support at its 50-dma and the $60 level. Our stop loss was hit at $59.40 on Thursday.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade because of the volatility and the risk that another headline regarding the safety of MNST's drinks could send shares lower. Therefore I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit risk.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 19, 2013 - entry price on MNST @ 63.40, option @ 3.95*
symbol:MNST1418a70 2014 JAN $70 call - exit $2.00** (-49.3%)

- or -

JUL 19, 2013 - entry price on MNST @ 63.40, option @ 8.70
symbol:MNST1517a70 2015 JAN $70 call - exit $6.50** (-25.2%)

08/15/13 stopped out
**option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was closed.
08/11/13 new stop loss @ 59.40
07/19/13 Trade opened. MNST opens at $63.40
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
07/18/13 MNST meets our entry requirement with a close above $63.00
07/17/13 MNST breaks out past resistance near $62.50

Chart of MNST:
Current Target: $74.00
Current Stop loss: 59.40
Play Entered on: 07/19/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/07/13