Editor's Note:

We had several candidates graduate from our watch list to our active play list: ALK, ANV, KBH, RYL, and TOL.

We want to exit our DLPH trade on Monday morning to lock in potential gains.


Closed Plays



None. No closed plays this week.




Play Updates


Agilent Technologies - A - close: 56.93

Comments:
03/02/14: Shares of Agilent eked out a gain for the week but shares are still struggling with resistance near the $58 area and its 50-dma. Odds are still good we will see A retest its 100-dma near $55.20. I am turning a bit more defensive here and we will raise our stop loss to $53.80.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: Agilent is planning to spin off its electronic measurement company, Keysight Technologies, toward the end of 2014.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 14, 2014 - entry price on A @ 55.00, option @ 3.70
symbol: A1517a60 2015 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $4.25/4.40

- or -

FEB 14, 2014 - entry price on A @ 55.00, option @ 5.10
symbol: A1615a65 2016 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $5.10/5.50

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 53.80
02/16/14 new stop loss @ 52.90 (was 52.40)
02/14/14 triggered at $55.00
02/09/14 adjust the entry trigger to $55.00 (from $55.50)

Current Target: A @ $74.00
Current Stop loss: 53.80
Play Entered on: 02/14/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/26/14


Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 86.64

Comments:
03/02/14: It was a big week for ALK with shares flying to new highs. The stock was on our watch list and the plan was to wait for shares to close above $82.50. ALK met that requirement on February 24th with a close at $83.50. Our trade opened the next day with ALK gapping higher at $85.88. At the moment I would not chase ALK here. Odds are good the stock will see a pullback into the $82-84 area and investors can use the pullback as a new entry point.

Earlier Comments:
The point & figure chart is already bullish with a $98.00 target. Our long-term target is $99.00.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 25, 2014 - entry price on ALK @ 85.88, option @ 8.00
symbol: ALK1517a90 2015 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $8.10/8.60

02/25/14 trade opens with ALK gapping higher at $85.88
02/24/14 ALK meets our entry requirement with a close above $82.50

Chart of ALK:

Current Target: ALK @ $99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.40
Play Entered on: 02/25/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/14


Allied Nevada Gold - ANV - close: 5.23

Comments:
03/02/14: ANV is also a watch list candidate that has graduated to our active play list. ANV is in the gold mining industry. As we suspected the stock did see a post-earnings sell-off and ANV hit our buy-the-dip entry point at $5.00. Shares fell to an intraday low of $4.82 on Feb. 26th but it looks like investors are buying the dip. More conservative investors might want to wait for a new close above $5.50 before initiating new positions. Our long-term target is $9.50.

Earlier Comments:
This is an aggressive play . Gold and the miners can be volatile I am suggesting small positions to limit our risk. I am also suggesting investors buy the stock as an alternative to buying the options.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 26, 2014 - entry price on ANV @ 5.00, option @ 0.60
symbol: ANV1517a7.5 2015 JAN $7.50 call - current bid/ask $0.55/0.65

- or -

(Buy the stock)
FEB 26, 2014 - entry price on ANV @ $5.00

02/26/14 triggered @ 5.00
02/23/14 Adjust the buy-the-dip entry to $5.00 (from $5.25)

Chart of ANV:

Current Target: ANV @ $9.50
Current Stop loss: 4.45
Play Entered on: 02/26/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/14


Bank of America - BAC - close: 16.53

Comments:
03/02/14: The financial sector managed gains last week but gains were relatively mild. BAC is still trading under a six-week trend of lower highs. A breakout above this trend line would naturally be bullish for the stock.

- Suggested Positions -
(exit target hit on 07/23/13 @ $15.00)
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit $1.04 (+136.3%)

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $2.45/2.47

02/03/14 move stop loss to $15.35, investors may want to just exit now to lock in potential gains
01/19/14 adjust exit target to $19.50 (from 18.00)
01/12/14 don't be surprised to see some post-earnings profit taking
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 14.75
...please see earlier updates for older comments...

Current Target: BAC @ $19.50 for 2015 call
Current Stop loss: 15.35
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


BB&T Corp. - BBT - close: 37.80

Comments:
03/02/14: BBT looks like it's about ready to breakout from its four-week consolidation. The stock briefly traded above resistance near $38.00 on Friday. I am raising our stop loss to $35.80.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 17, 2013 - entry price on BBT @ 35.81, option @ 0.99
symbol: BBT1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $1.32/1.38

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 35.80
02/03/14 conservative investors may want to exit now to avoid a potential loss (or raise their stop loss)
01/12/14 new stop loss @ 34.90

Current Target: BBT @ 42.50
Current Stop loss: 35.80
Play Entered on: 12/17/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/13


The Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 80.81

Comments:
03/02/14: Another week, another new all-time high for shares of DIS. That seems to be the trend lately. Traders bought the dip near DIS' rising 10-dma. The stock remains overbought and due for some profit taking. I am not suggesting new positions.

DIS will eventually see another pullback, and it could be several points. More conservative investors might want to lock in gains now.

I am raising our stop loss to $71.75.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 23, 2013 - entry price on DIS @ 68.81, option @ 3.70
symbol: DIS1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $10.00/10.20

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 71.75
02/16/14 more conservative traders may want to take profits now.
We are adjusting our long-term target from $84 to $89
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 69.40
12/29/13 new stop loss @ 67.40
12/08/13 new stop loss @ 65.75
11/24/13 new stop loss @ 64.75

Current Target: DIS @ 89.00
Current Stop loss: 71.75
Play Entered on: 10/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/13


Delphi Automotive - DLPH - close: 66.57

Comments:
03/02/14: The rally in DLPH has paused at resistance. I am suggesting we take profits immediately (on Monday morning) to lock in gains. We can revisit DLPH as a potential candidate again on a correction lower.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 24, 2014 - entry price on DLPH @ 60.25, option @ 4.49
symbol: DLPH1517a65 2015 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $6.90/7.30

03/02/14 prepare to exit on Monday morning
02/04/14 DLPH reports better than expected earnings but lowers Q1 guidance

Chart of DLPH:

Current Target: DLPH @ 75.00
Current Stop loss: 57.25
Play Entered on: 01/24/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/14


Foot Locker, Inc. - FL - close: 41.71

Comments:
03/02/14: FL rallied to new highs only to stall at the $42.00 level. This stock may continue to move sideways as investors wait for the earnings results. FL is due to report earnings on March 7th. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I am raising our stop loss to $37.45.

NOTE: The winter weather has been challenge for retailers, keeping customers at home and indoors. I would not be surprised to see FL miss estimates. More conservative traders might want to exit prior to the earnings report.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $48.00 but more aggressive traders could aim higher since the point & figure chart is forecasting a $60 target.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 17, 2014 - entry price on FL @ 39.25, option @ 3.85*
symbol: FL1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.60/4.80

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 37.45
02/16/14 recent performance has been disappointing. Investors may want to exit early now.
02/03/14 adjust stop loss to $36.49
01/17/14 triggered @ 39.25
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Current Target: exit when FL hits $48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.45
Play Entered on: 01/17/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/29/13


First Solar, Inc. - FSLR - close: 57.07

Comments:
03/02/14: Wow! Talk about a volatile week. FSLR reported earnings on Feb. 25th. The missed the bottom line estimate. They missed the revenue estimate. If that wasn't bad enough management also lowered guidance. The next day shares plunged from $58.00 to $49.52. Yet FSLR has seen a big bounce and actually closed with gains for the week. The big bounce got a boost from an analyst upgrade.

I am worried about this trade following FSLR's earning results. Virtually everything management discussed suggested the company is facing headwinds. I am raising our stop loss to $51.75 and more conservative investors might be better off to just exit now. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
FSLR can be a volatile stock so I consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our long-term target is $74.00.

*Use small positions to limit risk*

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 19, 2014 - entry price on FSLR @ 56.63, option @ $10.20
symbol: FSLR1517a60 2015 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 9.15/ 9.30

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 51.75. The earnings call last week was very disappointing and does not bode well for FSLR. More conservative traders may want to just exit early now.

Current Target: exit when FSLR hits $74.00
Current Stop loss: 51.75
Play Entered on: 02/19/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/14


Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 82.79

Comments:
03/02/14: GILD eked out a very small gain for the week. The previously bulletproof biotechs finally saw some profit taking last week. Big picture the trend for GILD is still higher but shares may retest support near $80 or its 50-dma on any market pullback. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I am labeling this a more aggressive, higher risk trade. There is always the risk that the wrong headline sends any biotech stock gapping lower (or higher as the case may be). I'm suggesting small positions to start. Broken resistance near $75.00 should be new support. Currently the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $98 target.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 07, 2014 - entry price on GILD @ 76.25, option @ 7.30
symbol: GILD1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $9.65/9.90

02/16/14 new stop loss @ 74.00
02/07/14 triggered @ 76.25
01/26/14 move the buy-the-dip trigger from 75.25 to 76.25

Current Target: exit when GILD hits $95.00
Current Stop loss: 74.00
Play Entered on: 02/07/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/14


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 94.44

Comments:
03/02/14: HON has spent the last two weeks consolidating sideways beneath resistance at the $95.00 level. Shares look poised for a breakout higher. I am adjusting our exit target from $98.00 to $99.00. I am moving our stop loss to $89.75.

Earlier Comments:
Our initial plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th at the open)
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 2.68
symbol: HON1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - exit $5.10 (+90.2%)

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 4.10
symbol: HON1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $11.80/12.40

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 89.75, adjust target to $99.00
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 87.45
12/29/13 new stop loss @ 84.85
12/22/13 adjust the exit target to $98.00
...please see earlier newsletter for prior comments...

Current Target: exit when HON hits $99.00
Current Stop loss: 89.75
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13



Hospira Inc. - HSP - close: 43.28

Comments:
03/02/14: HSP gained a dollar for the week. Shares seem to be struggling with a short-term trend of lower highs. There is additional resistance near $45.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $49.75. You may want to aim higher since the point & figure chart is forecasting at $69 target but I do see potential resistance at $50.00.

FYI: Earnings are scheduled for February 12th.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on HSP @ 43.00, option @ 4.60
symbol: HSP1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.50/4.00

02/03/14 triggered at $43.00

Current Target:$ 49.75
Current Stop loss: 39.90
Play Entered on: 02/03/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/26/14


JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPM - close: 56.82

Comments:
03/02/14: JPM underperformed its peers in the financial sector with a decline last week. Shares are back below their 50-dma and look headed for their lows in the $55-54 area. The long-term trend is up and a dip near its 200-dma (currently near 54.70) could be used as a new entry point. Keep in mind our stop loss is at $53.65.

- Suggested Positions -
(2014 call exit on Monday, December 23rd)
JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 1.60
symbol: JPM1418a55 2014 JAN $55 call - exit $3.05 (+90.6%)

- or -

JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 3.80
symbol: JPM1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 4.95/5.00

02/09/14 new stop loss @ 53.65
01/26/14 a dip or a bounce near $54.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 52.90
12/23/13 planned exit for 2014 calls, option @ +90.6%
12/22/13 prepare to exit the 2014 calls on Monday morning, Dec. 23rd
12/01/13 adjust exit target for the 2014 calls to exit when JPM hits $59.50
(see older updates for earlier comments)
Current Target: exit 2015 calls when JPM hits $64.00
Current Stop loss: 53.65
Play Entered on: 06/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/25/13


KB Home - KBH - close: 20.40

Comments:
03/02/14: The rally in the homebuilders accelerated last week and shares of KBH broke out past key resistance near the $20.00 mark. KBH was on our watch list and the plan was to wait for shares to close above $20.00. KBH met that requirement on Feb. 26th with a close at $20.18. Our trade opened the next day at $20.15. I would still consider new positions now.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on KBH @ 20.15 option @ 3.09
symbol: KBH1517a20 2015 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 3.15/3.25

Chart of KBH:
Current Target: KBH @ $25.00
Current Stop loss: 18.45
Play Entered on: 02/27/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/03/14


Micron Technology - MU - close: 24.19

Comments:
03/02/14: The recent action in MU does not inspire any confidence. Shares have been underperforming the chip sector and the broader market. The action on its weekly chart looks like a potential top. The stock has found short-term support near $24.00. Below that there should be more support at the 50-dma (near $23). Investors may want to wait for a bounce before launching new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
Late last year MU saw some volatility around news that a rival chip maker, Hynix, was building a new factory in 2014 and investors worried that might (naturally) impact supply and thus memory pricing. This could be a story that shows up again in 2014 even though the new factory probably won't start producing until 2015.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 10, 2014 - entry price on MU @ 24.64, option @ 3.75*
symbol: MU1517a25 2015 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/3.30

- or -

FEB 10, 2014 - entry price on MU @ 24.64, option @ 3.60*
symbol: MU1615a30 2016 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/3.25

02/10/14 trade opens, MU @ $24.64
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
02/07/14 MU meets our entry point requirement with a close above $24.50
02/03/14 adjust entry strategy. Instead of a buy-the-dip trigger at $22.00, wait for MU to close above $24.50 and then buy calls the next day.

Current Target: MU @ $29.75
Current Stop loss: 21.75
Play Entered on: 02/10/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/12/14


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 75.29

Comments:
03/02/14: QCOM is not participating in the market's recent push higher. The stock has spent two weeks consolidating sideways (with minor losses). I haven't heard any more news on the Chinese investigation into QCOM's business but that could be weighing on the share price. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 15, 2013 - entry price on QCOM @ 71.34, option @ 4.90
symbol: QCOM1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $5.15/5.25

02/19/14 QCOM being investigated by Chinese authorities
01/19/14 new stop loss @ 69.45
12/08/13 new stop loss @ 67.75
11/15/13 trade opens. QCOM @ 71.34
11/14/13 QCOM closes above entry trigger (above 70.50)

Current Target: $85.00
Current Stop loss: 69.45
Play Entered on: 11/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/13


Ryland Group - RYL - close: 43.05

Comments:
03/02/14: RYL delivered big gains last week with a +8.2% surge higher. The stock has broken out past major resistance near $45.00. We had RYL on our watch list with a plan to wait for shares to close above $45.75. The stock met that requirement on Feb. 26th with a close at $45.98. Our trade opened on the 27th at $45.78. If you're looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a dip near $45.50. The $45.00 level should be new support.

Earlier Comments:
The $50.00 level was resistance back in early 2013 and will likely be resistance again. However, we are aiming for the $55-60 range. The point & figure chart for RYL is forecasting a long-term target of $64.00.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on RYL @ 45.78, option @ 4.85*
symbol: RYL1517a50 2015 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $4.80/5.30

02/27/14 trade opens with RYL @ 45.78
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
02/26/14 RYL closes above our trigger (45.75)

Chart of RYL:

Current Target: $55.00-60.00 range
Current Stop loss: 41.25
Play Entered on: 02/27/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/14


Starbucks - SBUX - close: 70.96

Comments:
03/02/14: A warned readers last week that SBUX appeared to be headed lower. Shares fell to support near $70.00 and bounced. I suspect we will see SBUX test its February low near $68.60. Currently our stop loss is at $67.90. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. The best outcome is a bounce at the February low, which would form a bullish double bottom.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on SBUX @ 70.50, option @ 4.65
symbol: SBUX1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $4.25/4.40

- or -

FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on SBUX @ 70.50, option @ 6.75*
symbol: SBUX1615a80 2016 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $5.65/5.90

02/23/14 SBUX is rolling over and looks headed for the February low
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 67.90
02/03/14 triggered at $70.50
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Current Target: $82.00
Current Stop loss: 67.90
Play Entered on: 02/03/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/05/14


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 39.01

Comments:
03/02/14: TOL is another homebuilder and another watch list candidate that has graduated to our active play list. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $38.50 and then buy calls the next day. TOL closed at $38.90 on February 26th. Our trade opened the next morning at $38.72. I would still consider new positions now but nimble traders may want to consider trying to buy a dip near $38.00 instead.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on TOL @ 38.72, option @ 4.25*
symbol: TOL1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $3.90/4.30

- or -

FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on TOL @ 38.72, option @ 5.35*
symbol: TOL1615a45 2016 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $4.50/5.10

02/27/14 trade opens with TOL @ 38.72
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
02/26/14 TOL closes above our trigger (38.50)

Chart of TOL:

Current Target: RYL @ $49.00
Current Stop loss: 34.30
Play Entered on: 02/27/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/14


Wells Fargo & Co. - WFC - close: 46.42

Comments:
03/02/14: WFC is helping lead the financial sector higher. The stock is approaching its January highs, which could be resistance in the $46.85 area. While the trend is bullish I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 26, 2013 - entry price on WFC @ 45.50, option @ 1.50
symbol: WFC1517a50 2015 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.32/1.37

-- or --

DEC 26, 2013 - entry price on WFC @ 45.50, option @ 2.95*
symbol: WFC1615a50 2016 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.79/2.90

01/19/14 new stop loss @ 42.90
12/26/13 trade opens with WFC @ $45.50
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
12/24/13 WFC closed @ 45.39, above our trigger at $45.25

Current Target: Exit WFC hits $54.50
Current Stop loss: 42.90
Play Entered on: 12/26/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/13