Editor's Note:

CBI has graduated from our watch list to our active play list.

We want to exit our FL trade immediately on Monday, March 10th.


Closed Plays


Our plan was to close the DLPH trade on Monday, March 3rd.



Play Updates


Agilent Technologies - A - close: 58.42

Comments:
03/09/14: Financial sector stocks were showing relative strength last week. A rallied with them and broke out above its 50-dma. Shares still have a six-week trend of lower highs but this is starting to look like a bull flag pattern, which is a good sign. More conservative investors might want to move their stop closer to the 100-dma.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: Agilent is planning to spin off its electronic measurement company, Keysight Technologies, toward the end of 2014.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 14, 2014 - entry price on A @ 55.00, option @ 3.70
symbol: A1517a60 2015 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $5.10/5.20

- or -

FEB 14, 2014 - entry price on A @ 55.00, option @ 5.10
symbol: A1615a65 2016 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $5.90/6.60

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 53.80
02/16/14 new stop loss @ 52.90 (was 52.40)
02/14/14 triggered at $55.00
02/09/14 adjust the entry trigger to $55.00 (from $55.50)

Current Target: A @ $74.00
Current Stop loss: 53.80
Play Entered on: 02/14/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/26/14


Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 89.40

Comments:
03/09/14: ALK was up more than $3 for the week before profit taking hit on Friday. Friday's move is noteworthy since it created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. After ALK's four-week rally I would not be surprised to see a pullback.

Earlier Comments:
The point & figure chart is already bullish with a $98.00 target. Our long-term target is $99.00.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 25, 2014 - entry price on ALK @ 85.88, option @ 8.00
symbol: ALK1517a90 2015 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $9.40/9.90

03/09/14 Friday's move is a potential reversal pattern
02/25/14 trade opens with ALK gapping higher at $85.88
02/24/14 ALK meets our entry requirement with a close above $82.50

Current Target: ALK @ $99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.40
Play Entered on: 02/25/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/14


Allied Nevada Gold - ANV - close: 5.51

Comments:
03/09/14: Even with Friday's -3.3% pullback shares of ANV managed to outperform its peers in the gold mining industry. Given the pullback in the group I would not be surprised to see shares of ANV retest the $5.15-5.00 area. Therefore I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
This is an aggressive play . Gold and the miners can be volatile I am suggesting small positions to limit our risk. I am also suggesting investors buy the stock as an alternative to buying the options.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 26, 2014 - entry price on ANV @ 5.00, option @ 0.60
symbol: ANV1517a7.5 2015 JAN $7.50 call - current bid/ask $0.65/0.75

- or -

(Buy the stock)
FEB 26, 2014 - entry price on ANV @ $5.00

02/26/14 triggered @ 5.00
02/23/14 Adjust the buy-the-dip entry to $5.00 (from $5.25)

Current Target: ANV @ $9.50
Current Stop loss: 4.45
Play Entered on: 02/26/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/14


Bank of America - BAC - close: 17.33

Comments:
03/09/14: Financial stocks were some of the market's best performers last week and provided some desperately needed leadership. BAC rallied almost +5% for the week.

- Suggested Positions -
(exit target hit on 07/23/13 @ $15.00)
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit $1.04 (+136.3%)

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $3.00/3.05

02/03/14 move stop loss to $15.35, investors may want to just exit now to lock in potential gains
01/19/14 adjust exit target to $19.50 (from 18.00)
01/12/14 don't be surprised to see some post-earnings profit taking
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 14.75
...please see earlier updates for older comments...

Current Target: BAC @ $19.50 for 2015 call
Current Stop loss: 15.35
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


BB&T Corp. - BBT - close: 39.18

Comments:
03/09/14: BBT delivered a strong performance with a four-day surge toward its January highs. The stock naturally stalled at potential resistance near its prior highs near $39.30. I would not be surprised to see a short-term pullback from here but if BBT pulls back too sharply it will look like a potential bearish double top pattern. Look for short-term support near $38.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 17, 2013 - entry price on BBT @ 35.81, option @ 0.99
symbol: BBT1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $1.89/1.96

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 35.80
02/03/14 conservative investors may want to exit now to avoid a potential loss (or raise their stop loss)
01/12/14 new stop loss @ 34.90

Current Target: BBT @ 42.50
Current Stop loss: 35.80
Play Entered on: 12/17/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/13


Chicago Bridge & Iron - CBI - close: 84.30

Comments:
03/09/14: CBI is a watch list candidate that has graduated to our active play list. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $85.00 and then buy calls the next morning. CBI met that requirement on Thursday with a close at $85.36. Our trade opened on Friday morning at $85.52. I am suggesting a little patience if you did not launch positions yet. Technically, Friday's move has created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. I would not be surprised to see CBI retest its 10-dma near $83.00 or possibly even more lower given its last week's performance, which might be interpreted as a possible short-term top.

Nimble traders may want to consider buying calls on a dip in the $83-80 zone. Alternatively you may want to wait for a close above $86.00 as an entry point. Friday's high was $85.86.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 07, 2014 - entry price on CBI @ 85.52, option @ 6.85
symbol: CBI1517a90 2015 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $6.00/6.40

- or -

MAR 07, 2014 - entry price on CBI @ 85.52, option @ 8.50
symbol: CBI1615a100 2016 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $7.60/8.60

03/07/14 trade opens with CBI @ $85.52
03/06/14 CBI closes above our entry requirement of $85.00

Chart of CBI:

Current Target: CBI @ 99.50
Current Stop loss: 79.45
Play Entered on: 03/07/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/02/14


The Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 82.21

Comments:
03/09/14: Shares of DIS hit new all-time highs last week. The stock garnered a new $95 price target from an analyst. Shares extended their gains to five up weeks in a row. Yet Friday's move has generated a one-day bearish reversal pattern. I would expect some profit taking soon.

At the moment our long-term target is $89.00 but if DIS continues to surge I will be tempted to raise it into the $95-100 zone.

Please note our new stop loss at $74.75. That is still pretty wide thanks to DIS' sharp rally higher. More conservative investors will want to strongly consider adjusting their stop higher or taking some money off the table.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 23, 2013 - entry price on DIS @ 68.81, option @ 3.70
symbol: DIS1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $11.20/11.40

03/09/14 new stop loss @ 74.75, traders may want to take some money off the table here. DIS is overbought and due for a dip.
03/02/14 new stop loss @ 71.75
02/16/14 more conservative traders may want to take profits now.
We are adjusting our long-term target from $84 to $89
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 69.40
12/29/13 new stop loss @ 67.40
12/08/13 new stop loss @ 65.75
11/24/13 new stop loss @ 64.75

Current Target: DIS @ 89.00
Current Stop loss: 74.75
Play Entered on: 10/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/13


Foot Locker, Inc. - FL - close: 46.49

Comments:
03/09/14: Boom! Shares of FL are up +11.4% for the week and most of that was with Friday's +8.79% surge to new highs. The rally follows a better than expected earnings report. Wall Street was expecting a profit of 76 cents a share on revenues of $1.77 billion. FL delivered 82 cents on revenues of $1.79 billion. Same-store sales came in at +5.3% and management offered bullish guidance.

The intraday high on Friday was $46.80. Our long-term target has been $48.00 but FL is moving too far too fast and I am suggesting an immediate exit on Monday morning, March 10th, to lock in potential gains. We can check out FL again after it corrects lower.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 17, 2014 - entry price on FL @ 39.25, option @ 3.85*
symbol: FL1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $7.70/8.10

03/09/14 prepare to exit immediately on Monday morning to lock in potential gains.
03/02/14 new stop loss @ 37.45
02/16/14 recent performance has been disappointing. Investors may want to exit early now.
02/03/14 adjust stop loss to $36.49
01/17/14 triggered @ 39.25
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Current Target: exit when FL hits $48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.45
Play Entered on: 01/17/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/29/13


First Solar, Inc. - FSLR - close: 56.11

Comments:
03/09/14: I am urging caution on our FSLR trade. Shares continued to drift higher following the prior week's volatile moves. Yet FSLR struggled with resistance near its late February highs. Friday saw FSLR underperform with a -3.65% decline. I suspect shares will move lower next week. We could see FSLR in a new $50-60 trading range.

Remember, this is an aggressive trade. If you cannot stomach the volatility you may want to exit now! Currently our stop loss is at $51.75 but that might be too high. More aggressive traders may want to keep their stop below $50 and below its 200-dma (currently 49.50).

I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
FSLR can be a volatile stock so I consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our long-term target is $74.00.

*Use small positions to limit risk*

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 19, 2014 - entry price on FSLR @ 56.63, option @ $10.20
symbol: FSLR1517a60 2015 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 8.55/ 8.80

03/09/14 recent action looks short-term bearish, expect a pullback
03/02/14 new stop loss @ 51.75. The earnings call last week was very disappointing and does not bode well for FSLR. More conservative traders may want to just exit early now.

Current Target: exit when FSLR hits $74.00
Current Stop loss: 51.75
Play Entered on: 02/19/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/14


Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 79.58

Comments:
03/09/14: It was not a good week for GILD bulls. Shares underperformed the broader market and violated short-term support near $80.00a and technical support at its 50-dma. Fortunately both times (Thursday and Friday) GLD traded below its 50-dma the stock recovered to close above it. This is important since the 50-dma has been consistent support over the last several months.

GILD should have support near $75.00 but if the stock closes below $78.00 it could spell bad news for the up trend. Currently our stop loss is at $74.00. More conservative investors may want to raise their stop higher. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I am labeling this a more aggressive, higher risk trade. There is always the risk that the wrong headline sends any biotech stock gapping lower (or higher as the case may be). I'm suggesting small positions to start. Broken resistance near $75.00 should be new support. Currently the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $98 target.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 07, 2014 - entry price on GILD @ 76.25, option @ 7.30
symbol: GILD1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $8.35/8.60

02/16/14 new stop loss @ 74.00
02/07/14 triggered @ 76.25
01/26/14 move the buy-the-dip trigger from 75.25 to 76.25

Current Target: exit when GILD hits $95.00
Current Stop loss: 74.00
Play Entered on: 02/07/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/14


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 95.44

Comments:
03/09/14: HON has been struggling to make progress but shares managed a cool $1.00 gain for the week. This is a new all-time high for the stock. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our initial plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th at the open)
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 2.68
symbol: HON1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - exit $5.10 (+90.2%)

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 4.10
symbol: HON1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $12.85/13.05

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 89.75, adjust target to $99.00
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 87.45
12/29/13 new stop loss @ 84.85
12/22/13 adjust the exit target to $98.00
...please see earlier newsletter for prior comments...

Current Target: exit when HON hits $99.00
Current Stop loss: 89.75
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13



Hospira Inc. - HSP - close: 43.35

Comments:
03/09/14: Last week saw HSP bounce from support near $42.00 again. Shares are trying to breakout past the short-term trend of lower highs. I am optimistic on HSP but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $49.75. You may want to aim higher since the point & figure chart is forecasting at $69 target but I do see potential resistance at $50.00.

FYI: Earnings are scheduled for February 12th.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on HSP @ 43.00, option @ 4.60
symbol: HSP1517a45 2015 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.50/4.00

02/03/14 triggered at $43.00

Current Target:$ 49.75
Current Stop loss: 39.90
Play Entered on: 02/03/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/26/14


JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPM - close: 56.82

Comments:
03/09/14: Financial stocks helped lift the market last week. JPM did its part with a big bounce off its long-term trend line of support (see chart below). Now shares face round-number resistance at the $60.00 level.

I am adjusting our long-term bullish target from $64.00 to $68.50. More conservative traders may want to leave their target at $65 since JPM does have some resistance in the $65 area dating back to 1999-2000.

- Suggested Positions -
(2014 call exit on Monday, December 23rd)
JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 1.60
symbol: JPM1418a55 2014 JAN $55 call - exit $3.05 (+90.6%)

- or -

JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 3.80
symbol: JPM1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 6.45/6.60

03/09/14 adjust target from $64.00 to $69.00
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 53.65
01/26/14 a dip or a bounce near $54.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 52.90
12/23/13 planned exit for 2014 calls, option @ +90.6%
12/22/13 prepare to exit the 2014 calls on Monday morning, Dec. 23rd
12/01/13 adjust exit target for the 2014 calls to exit when JPM hits $59.50
(see older updates for earlier comments)

Chart of JPM:

Current Target: exit 2015 calls when JPM hits $69.00
Current Stop loss: 53.65
Play Entered on: 06/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/25/13


KB Home - KBH - close: 18.62

Comments:
03/09/14: Ouch! The homebuilders were hammered lower last week. After being nearly bulletproof to negative economic data suddenly the homebuilders are sinking. KBH was hit the hardest with a -8.7% plunge. The stock is back below several layers of what should have been short-term support. The stock settled on Friday at its 50-dma after testing the $18.50 level. Our stop loss on KBH is at $18.45. If there is any follow through lower on Monday we should see KBH hit our stop.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on KBH @ 20.15 option @ 3.09
symbol: KBH1517a20 2015 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.16/2.21

03/09/14 KBH has reversed sharply with a -8.7% plunge last week. Any further weakness will hit our stop loss at $18.45.
Current Target: KBH @ $25.00
Current Stop loss: 18.45
Play Entered on: 02/27/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/03/14


Micron Technology - MU - close: 24.42

Comments:
03/09/14: MU's early March gains faded with shares drifting lower the last few days. The stock looks poised to retest support near $24.00 or possibly its 50-dma near $23.50. Earnings are coming up on March 20th. More conservative investors may want to wait until after the earnings report before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
Late last year MU saw some volatility around news that a rival chip maker, Hynix, was building a new factory in 2014 and investors worried that might (naturally) impact supply and thus memory pricing. This could be a story that shows up again in 2014 even though the new factory probably won't start producing until 2015.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 10, 2014 - entry price on MU @ 24.64, option @ 3.75*
symbol: MU1517a25 2015 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 3.35/3.40

- or -

FEB 10, 2014 - entry price on MU @ 24.64, option @ 3.60*
symbol: MU1615a30 2016 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.15/3.25

02/10/14 trade opens, MU @ $24.64
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
02/07/14 MU meets our entry point requirement with a close above $24.50
02/03/14 adjust entry strategy. Instead of a buy-the-dip trigger at $22.00, wait for MU to close above $24.50 and then buy calls the next day.

Current Target: MU @ $29.75
Current Stop loss: 21.75
Play Entered on: 02/10/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/12/14


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 76.79

Comments:
03/09/14: It was a volatile week for QCOM with shares plunging below support near $74 and its 50-dma last Monday (during the market's drop on the Ukraine news). Shares reversed higher and closed the week at new 14-year highs. The stock got a big boost on Tuesday thanks to the market's big bounce and news that QCOM was boosting its dividend by 20% to 42 cents a share and raising its stock buyback program by another $5 billion, bringing the current buyback allotment to $7.8 billion. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 15, 2013 - entry price on QCOM @ 71.34, option @ 4.90
symbol: QCOM1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $6.15/6.25

03/04/14 QCOM raises dividend and buyback program
02/19/14 QCOM being investigated by Chinese authorities
01/19/14 new stop loss @ 69.45
12/08/13 new stop loss @ 67.75
11/15/13 trade opens. QCOM @ 71.34
11/14/13 QCOM closes above entry trigger (above 70.50)

Current Target: $85.00
Current Stop loss: 69.45
Play Entered on: 11/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/13


Ryland Group - RYL - close: 43.41

Comments:
03/09/14: RYL is another homebuilder hammered lower by the recent profit taking in the industry stocks. Shares found support at their 50-dma on Friday. The profit taking may be a reaction to very disappointing earnings results from homebuilder Hovnanian, who reported a few days ago. At this point I would wait for a bounce back above $45.00 before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
The $50.00 level was resistance back in early 2013 and will likely be resistance again. However, we are aiming for the $55-60 range. The point & figure chart for RYL is forecasting a long-term target of $64.00.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on RYL @ 45.78, option @ 4.85*
symbol: RYL1517a50 2015 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $3.60/3.90

02/27/14 trade opens with RYL @ 45.78
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
02/26/14 RYL closes above our trigger (45.75)

Current Target: $55.00-60.00 range
Current Stop loss: 41.25
Play Entered on: 02/27/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/14


Starbucks - SBUX - close: 73.07

Comments:
03/09/14: Coffee prices continue to soar. the JO coffee ETN is up +77% from its late January lows. A lot of that is likely short covering by coffee futures traders. Shares of SBUX managed another bounce off of support near $70.00. SBUX is quickly approaching technical resistance near its 50-dma and 200-dma, both converging near $74.00. A breakout would be bullish and naturally a reversal would be bearish and suggesting another drop toward its 2014 lows. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on SBUX @ 70.50, option @ 4.65
symbol: SBUX1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $5.25/5.35

- or -

FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on SBUX @ 70.50, option @ 6.75*
symbol: SBUX1615a80 2016 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $6.60/6.80

02/23/14 SBUX is rolling over and looks headed for the February low
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 67.90
02/03/14 triggered at $70.50
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Current Target: $82.00
Current Stop loss: 67.90
Play Entered on: 02/03/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/05/14


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 39.22

Comments:
03/09/14: TOL caters to more high-end homebuyers and the stock managed to weather the recent sell-off in homebuilding stocks very well. TOL actually posted a gain for the week. Shares were testing round-number resistance near $40.00 after two analyst firms up graded the stock on Monday and Tuesday.

I would still consider buying calls on a dip near support at $38.00 or you could wait for a close over $40.00 as an alternative entry point.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on TOL @ 38.72, option @ 4.25*
symbol: TOL1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.00/4.40

- or -

FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on TOL @ 38.72, option @ 5.35*
symbol: TOL1615a45 2016 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $4.50/5.20

02/27/14 trade opens with TOL @ 38.72
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
02/26/14 TOL closes above our trigger (38.50)

Current Target: RYL @ $49.00
Current Stop loss: 34.30
Play Entered on: 02/27/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/14


Wells Fargo & Co. - WFC - close: 47.95

Comments:
03/09/14: WFC displayed leadership last week with a breakout to new all-time highs. The stock could soon be testing round-number resistance at the $50.00 level. I am raising our stop loss to $43.90.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 26, 2013 - entry price on WFC @ 45.50, option @ 1.50
symbol: WFC1517a50 2015 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.89/1.93

-- or --

DEC 26, 2013 - entry price on WFC @ 45.50, option @ 2.95*
symbol: WFC1615a50 2016 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.45/3.60

03/09/14 new stop loss @ 43.90
01/19/14 new stop loss @ 42.90
12/26/13 trade opens with WFC @ $45.50
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
12/24/13 WFC closed @ 45.39, above our trigger at $45.25

Current Target: Exit WFC hits $54.50
Current Stop loss: 43.90
Play Entered on: 12/26/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/13



CLOSED Plays


Delphi Automotive - DLPH - close: 66.63

Comments:
03/09/14: Last weekend we had decided to close our DLPH trade on Monday, March 3rd after the stock's rally had stalled at resistance. Shares opened on March 3rd at $65.85, down 72 cents, as the broader market sank on Russia-Ukraine fears.

DLPH's long-term trend is still higher. We can revisit DLPH as a potential candidate again on a correction lower.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 24, 2014 - entry price on DLPH @ 60.25, option @ 4.49
symbol: DLPH1517a65 2015 JAN $65 call - exit $6.55 (+45.8%)

03/03/14 planned exit
03/02/14 prepare to exit on Monday morning
02/04/14 DLPH reports better than expected earnings but lowers Q1 guidance

Chart of DLPH:

Current Target: DLPH @ 75.00
Current Stop loss: 57.25
Play Entered on: 01/24/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/19/14