Editor's Note:

Friday's session was truly ugly with a large number of stocks generating moves that look like a bearish reversal.

We did add AGU, CAT, NS, and WDC to the play list.

I am suggesting we exit our SBUX trade on Monday morning, April 7th.


Closed Plays


The plan was to exit our BSX trade on Monday morning (03/31/2014).



Play Updates


Agrium Inc. - AGU - close: 94.22

Comments:
04/06/14: AGU is a new watch list candidate that has graduated to our play list. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $97.50 and then buy calls the next day. AGU met that entry requirement with Monday's close at $97.52. Unfortunately shares have since pulled back toward the $94 level and its simple 30-dma. The drop on April 2nd was sparked by AGU lowering its EPS guidance. The stock was downgraded on the 3rd.

The story hasn't changed but just to be safe investors may want to wait for a close above $98.00 before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Long-term estimates suggest that food production will need to rise +60% over the near 36 years to feed the growing global population (currently 7.2 million people). This will require crop yield to double from their average annual increase of +1.2%. To do that farmers will need more fertilizer.

The point & figure chart is forecasting a long-term target of $121.00.

More conservative investors may want to wait for AGU to close above the $100.00 level as an alternative entry point since $100 could be round-number resistance.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 01, 2014 - entry price on AGU @ 97.48, option @ 2.60*
symbol: AGU1517a110 2015 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 1.70/ 1.95

- or -

APR 01, 2014 - entry price on AGU @ 97.48, option @ 6.20*
symbol: AGU1615a110 2016 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 4.50/ 5.20

04/01/14 AGU opens at $97.48
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
03/31/14 AGU closes above our suggested entry trigger (above $97.50)

Chart of AGU:

Current Target: AGU @ $115.00
Current Stop loss: 92.45
Play Entered on: 04/01/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/30/14


Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 92.33

Comments:
04/06/14: ALK also suffered a downgrade last week but it was the market's widespread decline on Friday that hurt. Shares had been struggling with resistance near $95.00 and they dropped -2.6% on Friday to close near technical support at its 20-dma.

I am raising our stop loss to $88.45.

Earlier Comments:
The point & figure chart is already bullish with a $98.00 target. Our long-term target is $99.00.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 25, 2014 - entry price on ALK @ 85.88, option @ 8.00
symbol: ALK1517a90 2015 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $10.50/11.80

04/06/14 new stop loss @ 88.45
03/30/14 new stop loss @ 84.75
03/16/14 new stop loss @ 83.40
03/09/14 Friday's move is a potential reversal pattern
02/25/14 trade opens with ALK gapping higher at $85.88
02/24/14 ALK meets our entry requirement with a close above $82.50

Current Target: ALK @ $99.00
Current Stop loss: 88.45
Play Entered on: 02/25/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/14


Bank of America - BAC - close: 16.72

Comments:
04/06/14: Shares of BAC are down three days in a row and Friday's move produced a drop below technical support at the 50-dma. The last few weeks appear to have painted a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on BAC's daily chart. If this pattern holds true then it would suggest a drop toward $15.50. I am inching our stop loss higher to $15.85.

More conservative investors may want to take profits now and exit early.

JPM and WFC are scheduled to report earnings this coming Friday and BAC could move in reaction to their results. BAC reports earnings on April 16th.

- Suggested Positions -
(exit target hit on 07/23/13 @ $15.00)
MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 0.44
symbol: BAC1418a15 2014 JAN $15 call - exit $1.04 (+136.3%)

- or -

MAR 18, 2013 - entry price on BAC @ 12.29, option @ 1.13
symbol: BAC1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $2.45/2.46

04/06/14 new stop @ 15.85
04/06/14 BAC appears to have created a bearish H&S pattern (target 15.50)
03/30/14 new stop @ $15.70
02/03/14 move stop loss to $15.35, investors may want to just exit now to lock in potential gains
01/19/14 adjust exit target to $19.50 (from 18.00)
01/12/14 don't be surprised to see some post-earnings profit taking
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 14.75
...please see earlier updates for older comments...

Current Target: BAC @ $19.50 for 2015 call
Current Stop loss: 15.85
Play Entered on: 03/18/13

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/13


BB&T Corp. - BBT - close: 40.04

Comments:
04/06/14: BBT has been struggling with resistance near $41.00 and its multi-year highs the last few days. Friday's move looks like a bearish reversal. I would expect a drop toward $39.00. I am raising our stop loss to $36.90.

More conservative traders may want to lock in profits now and exit early.

BBT is scheduled to report earnings on April 17th.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 17, 2013 - entry price on BBT @ 35.81, option @ 0.99
symbol: BBT1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $2.12/2.30

04/06/14 new stop @ 36.90
03/30/14 new stop @ 36.40
03/23/14 adjust exit target to $44.00
03/16/14 BBT has formed a potential bearish double top.
03/02/14 new stop loss @ 35.80
02/03/14 conservative investors may want to exit now to avoid a potential loss (or raise their stop loss)
01/12/14 new stop loss @ 34.90

Current Target: BBT @ 44.00
Current Stop loss: 36.90
Play Entered on: 12/17/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/13


Caterpillar Inc. - CAT - close: 102.17

Comments:
04/06/14: CAT is another new watch list candidate that has graduated to our active play list. Shares broke through significant resistance at the $100.00 level this past week. Our plan was to wait for shares to close above $101.00 and buy calls the next day. CAT met that entry requirement with Wednesday's close at $102.63. Our trade opened on Thursday morning at $101.92.

At this point I am suggesting investors look for a dip toward the $100.00 mark as the next attractive entry point to buy calls on CAT.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is the $115-125 zone. Currently CAT's point & figure chart is bullish with a $126 target.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 03, 2014 - entry price on CAT @ 101.92, option @ 3.50*
symbol: CAT1517a110 2015 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $3.50/3.65

- or -

APR 03, 2014 - entry price on CAT @ 101.92, option @ 7.40*
symbol: CAT1615a110 2016 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $7.10/7.50

04/03/14 trade opens. CAT @ 101.92
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
04/02/14 CAT meets our entry trigger with a close above $101.00

Chart of CAT:

Current Target: CAT @ 115.00-125.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 94.90
Play Entered on: 04/03/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/30/14


Chicago Bridge & Iron - CBI - close: 86.07

Comments:
04/06/14: CBI lost -1.23% on Friday but even with this pullback shares delivered a gain for the week. The stock also tagged new all-time highs on Friday morning. Unfortunately the stock reversed at a trend line of higher highs and fell lower as the market sank. Friday's move could be a bearish reversal. I would expect a dip toward the $82.00-83.00 area.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 07, 2014 - entry price on CBI @ 85.52, option @ 6.85
symbol: CBI1517a90 2015 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $6.50/7.70

- or -

MAR 07, 2014 - entry price on CBI @ 85.52, option @ 8.50
symbol: CBI1615a100 2016 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $8.30/9.90

03/07/14 trade opens with CBI @ $85.52
03/06/14 CBI closes above our entry requirement of $85.00

Current Target: CBI @ 99.50
Current Stop loss: 79.45
Play Entered on: 03/07/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/02/14


The Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 80.43

Comments:
04/06/14: Friday's -1.5% reversal in DIS looks ugly but shares are still up for the week. Unfortunately the move on Friday looks like a possible lower high. Meanwhile DIS is enjoying another Marvel comics movie hit. DIS bought Marvel for $4 billion back in 2009. Since then Marvel's super hero movies have been some of the biggest hits of the industry. It's newest Captain America: The Winter Soldier just scored the best opening for a film in April with $96.2 million over the weekend. Comments:
03/30/14: I have been warning readers to look for a pullback in shares of DIS and the stock did not disappoint. DIS tested its 50-dma this past week. There is no guarantee the pullback is over. We can watch for potential support in the $75.00-76.50 area. Our stop remains at $74.75.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 23, 2013 - entry price on DIS @ 68.81, option @ 3.70
symbol: DIS1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 9.65/ 9.80

03/09/14 new stop loss @ 74.75, traders may want to take some money off the table here. DIS is overbought and due for a dip.
03/02/14 new stop loss @ 71.75
02/16/14 more conservative traders may want to take profits now.
We are adjusting our long-term target from $84 to $89
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 69.40
12/29/13 new stop loss @ 67.40
12/08/13 new stop loss @ 65.75
11/24/13 new stop loss @ 64.75

Current Target: DIS @ 89.00
Current Stop loss: 74.75
Play Entered on: 10/23/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/13


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 93.33

Comments:
04/06/14: HON produced a five-day bounce off its late March low before giving back -1% on Friday. Technically Friday's move looks like a reversal so I would expected another dip to the 100-dma near $90.85. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our initial plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

- Suggested Positions -
(closed the 2014 calls on May 20th at the open)
MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 2.68
symbol: HON1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - exit $5.10 (+90.2%)

- or -

MAY 07, 2013 - entry price on HON @ 76.20, option @ 4.10
symbol: HON1517a85 2015 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $10.75/11.15

03/02/14 new stop loss @ 89.75, adjust target to $99.00
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 87.45
12/29/13 new stop loss @ 84.85
12/22/13 adjust the exit target to $98.00
...please see earlier newsletter for prior comments...

Current Target: exit when HON hits $99.00
Current Stop loss: 89.75
Play Entered on: 05/07/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/04/13



JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPM - close: 59.81

Comments:
04/06/14: After churning sideways in the $60-61 zone for days JPM broke down with the market's broad-based sell off on Friday. The stock could see a drop back toward the long-term trend line of higher lows near $58.00. More conservative investors may want to raise their stop toward the $57.00 area.

Keep in mind that JPM will report earnings on Friday morning, April 11th. The stock could be volatile following its report. You may want to exit prior to the announcement.

I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
(2014 call exit on Monday, December 23rd)
JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 1.60
symbol: JPM1418a55 2014 JAN $55 call - exit $3.05 (+90.6%)

- or -

JUN 24, 2013 - entry price on JPM @ 50.25, option @ 3.80
symbol: JPM1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 6.85/7.05

03/23/14 new stop @ 54.75
03/09/14 adjust target from $64.00 to $69.00
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 53.65
01/26/14 a dip or a bounce near $54.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point
01/05/14 new stop loss @ 52.90
12/23/13 planned exit for 2014 calls, option @ +90.6%
12/22/13 prepare to exit the 2014 calls on Monday morning, Dec. 23rd
12/01/13 adjust exit target for the 2014 calls to exit when JPM hits $59.50
(see older updates for earlier comments)
Current Target: exit 2015 calls when JPM hits $69.00
Current Stop loss: 54.75
Play Entered on: 06/24/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/25/13


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 69.40

Comments:
04/06/14: KLAC hit new 14-year highs before reversing on Friday. Friday's drop was ugly, erasing three days of gains and closing below its 10-dma. I would not be surprised to see KLAC retrace down to the $66.00 level.

KLAC is due to report earnings on April 24th.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $79.00. Currently the point & figure chart is bullish with an $82 target.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 13, 2014 - entry price on KLAC @ 67.63, option @ 4.50*
symbol:KLAC1517a70 2015 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.00/5.30

- or -

MAR 13, 2014 - entry price on KLAC @ 67.63, option @ 5.50*
symbol:KLAC1615a75 2016 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 5.80/6.10

03/23/14 new stop loss @ 63.90
03/13/14 trade opens with KLAC @ 67.63
03/12/14 KLAC closes @ 67.63, above our suggested entry, a close above $67.50
Current Target: exit calls when KLAC hits $79.00
Current Stop loss: 63.90
Play Entered on: 03/13/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/02/14


NuStar Energy - NS - close: 55.28

Comments:
04/06/14: NS is another watch list candidate that has graduated to an active play. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $55.25 since the $55.00 level is major resistance. NS met our entry point requirement on Thursday with a close at $55.26. Our trade opened Friday morning at $55.25.

The stock did a good job ignoring the market's weakness on Friday but there is no guarantee it will do the same tomorrow. NS does not move very fast so we probably have time to sit back and wait before launching new positions.

FYI: NS is due to report earnings on April 23rd.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is $64.50. More aggressive investors with a longer time frame may want to aim higher since the point & figure chart is targeting an $87 target.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 04, 2014 - entry price on NS @ 55.25, option @ 3.10*
symbol: NS1517a55 2015 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 2.70/3.40

04/04/14 our play opens. NS @ 55.25
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
04/03/14 NS closes above $55.25

Chart of NS:
Current Target: exit calls when NS hits $64.50
Current Stop loss: 51.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/23/14


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 78.53

Comments:
04/06/14: Last week saw shares of QCOM hit new 14-year highs thanks to some bullish analyst comments and a new $90 price target. Unfortunately, Friday's -2.5% drop erased about a week's worth of gains. Friday's move does look like a bearish reversal and I would expect a drop toward $76.00 and its 50-dma.

FYI: QCOM is scheduled to report earnings on April 23rd.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 15, 2013 - entry price on QCOM @ 71.34, option @ 4.90
symbol: QCOM1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $7.15/7.30

03/30/14 new stop @ 73.75
03/23/14 new stop @ 71.75
03/04/14 QCOM raises dividend and buyback program
02/19/14 QCOM being investigated by Chinese authorities
01/19/14 new stop loss @ 69.45
12/08/13 new stop loss @ 67.75
11/15/13 trade opens. QCOM @ 71.34
11/14/13 QCOM closes above entry trigger (above 70.50)

Current Target: $85.00
Current Stop loss: 73.75
Play Entered on: 11/15/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/13


Starbucks - SBUX - close: 71.55

Comments:
04/06/14: I like SBUX. The still think the stock has a lot of potential for growth. Unfortunately shares have been trading horribly since their bearish reversal near $78.00 two weeks ago. It is certainly possible that SBUX will find support again and bounce in the $69-70 zone but I am suggesting an immediate exit on Monday morning, April 7th. We'll wait until after SBUX's next earnings report before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on SBUX @ 70.50, option @ 4.65
symbol: SBUX1517a75 2015 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $4.25/4.35

- or -

FEB 03, 2014 - entry price on SBUX @ 70.50, option @ 6.75*
symbol: SBUX1615a80 2016 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $5.55/5.80

04/06/14 prepare to exit immediately on Monday, April 7th
03/30/14 new stop @ 69.75
03/23/14 adjust exit targets to $89 for the 2015 calls and $99 for the 2016s
03/16/14 SBUX rallied through several resistance levels last week but the pullback is already starting to reverse.
02/23/14 SBUX is rolling over and looks headed for the February low
02/09/14 new stop loss @ 67.90
02/03/14 triggered at $70.50
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Current Target: exit the 2015 calls when SBUX hits $89.00
exit the 2016 calls when SBUX hits $99.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 02/03/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/05/14


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 36.78

Comments:
04/06/14: TOL posted gains for the week but Friday's session looks like another potential bearish reversal. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on TOL @ 38.72, option @ 4.25*
symbol: TOL1517a40 2015 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $2.60/3.20

- or -

FEB 27, 2014 - entry price on TOL @ 38.72, option @ 5.35*
symbol: TOL1615a45 2016 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $3.20/4.00

03/30/14 new stop @ 34.40
02/27/14 trade opens with TOL @ 38.72
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
02/26/14 TOL closes above our trigger (38.50)

Current Target: RYL @ $49.00
Current Stop loss: 34.40
Play Entered on: 02/27/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/16/14


Western Digital Corp. - WDC - close: 90.50

Comments:
04/06/14: WDC lost -3.1% on Friday and still managed a gain for the week. This stock is another watch list candidate that has graduated to an active play. The stock was hovering near resistance at $90.00. Our plan was to wait for shares to close above $91.25 and then buy calls the next day. WDC met our entry point requirement with Monday's close at $91.82. Our trade opened on Tuesday morning at $92.56. WDC rallied up to $95.00 and then reversed hard on Friday, stalling near prior resistance and what should be support at $90.00.

Our stop loss is at $85.75 but more conservative traders may want to move it significantly higher. A bounce from $90.00 can be used as a new bullish entry point.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 01, 2014 - entry price on WDC @ 92.56, option @ 6.85*
symbol: WDC1517a100 2015 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $6.20/6.45

- or -

APR 01, 2014 - entry price on WDC @ 92.56, option @ 9.65*
symbol: WDC1615a110 2016 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $8.35/8.65

04/01/14 trade opens. WDC opened @ 92.56
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
03/31/14 WDC meets entry requirement with close above $91.25

Chart of WDC:

Current Target: WDC @ $110.00
Current Stop loss: 85.75
Play Entered on: 04/01/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/30/14


Wells Fargo & Co. - WFC - close: 49.56

Comments:
04/06/14: Warning! WFC hit new highs above resistance at $50.00 and reversed. This also looks like a reversal at resistance at its long-term trend line (see chart). WFC is due to report earnings this coming Friday, April 11th. I would expect shares to move flat to down from here. Look for support in the $46.00-47.00 area. Friday morning could be volatile as investors react to WFC's earnings results.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 26, 2013 - entry price on WFC @ 45.50, option @ 1.50
symbol: WFC1517a50 2015 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.42/2.47

-- or --

DEC 26, 2013 - entry price on WFC @ 45.50, option @ 2.95*
symbol: WFC1615a50 2016 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 4.05/4.15

04/06/14 WFC looks poised for a pullback
03/30/14 new stop loss @ 44.80
03/09/14 new stop loss @ 43.90
01/19/14 new stop loss @ 42.90
12/26/13 trade opens with WFC @ $45.50
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
12/24/13 WFC closed @ 45.39, above our trigger at $45.25

Chart of WFC:

Current Target: Exit WFC hits $54.50
Current Stop loss: 44.80
Play Entered on: 12/26/13
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/13



CLOSED Plays


Boston Scientific - BSX - close: 13.50

Comments:
04/06/14: BSX was not cooperating so we decided in last weekend's newsletter to exit positions on Monday morning (03/31/2014). Naturally BSX decides to rally four days in a row before reversing with the market on Friday.

BSX opened at $13.30 on Monday, March 31st.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 10, 2014 - entry price on BSX @ 13.73, option @ 1.07
symbol: BSX1517a15 2015 JAN $15 call - exit $0.78 (-27.1%)

- or -

MAR 10, 2014 - entry price on BSX @ 13.73, option @ 2.08*
symbol: BSX1615a15 2016 JAN $15 call - exit $1.50 (-27.8%)

04/06/14 closed positions on Monday, March 31st
03/30/14 prepare to exit on Monday, March 31st at the open
03/23/14 new stop @ 12.40, readers may want to exit early.
03/10/14 trade opens.
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
03/09/14 Move BSX from watch list to new plays
03/07/14 BSX closes above $13.60
03/02/14 adjust entry trigger. Wait for close above $13.60 (instead of 13.50)

Chart of BSX:

Current Target: BSX @ 17.50
Current Stop loss: 12.40
Play Entered on: 03/10/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/09/14