Editor's Note:

COF has graduated from our watch list to the active play list.


Closed Plays


Our plan was to exit the ASH trade on Monday morning (June 8th).

EWG and SCTY hit our stop loss.



Play Updates


Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 127.17

Comments:
06/14/15: AAPL's WWDC made a lot of headlines last week. As many predicted the company announced a new music streaming service. The new product is called Apple Music Service and will cost $9.99 per month. Many analysts were lukewarm over the announcement.

The streaming music business has a lot of competition. There is Amazon.com's Prime Music service, Google's Play Music, Songza, Tidal, Rdio, Rhapsody, iHeartRadio, Pandora, and Spotify. Pandora has 79.2 million active users but only four million are paying subscribers. The rest listen to streaming music with ads. Spotify is up to 75 million users. They claim to have 20 million listeners to pay to listen.

Let's pretend for a moment that Apple's new music service is a huge hit and they steal every single subscriber from Spotify and Pandora. Remember, we are pretending, and that would give AAPL about 24 million paying subscribers. The streaming business does not have great margins. They might make $1.00 or $2.00 per user per month. Apple will probably make less since they're going to offer a family plan at a discounted rate.

At $2.00 per subscriber per month, we're guessing here, AAPL's music service would bring in $576 million a year. That's less than a +1% addition to AAPL's annual revenues of $212 billion. The music business will not move the needle. The only allure here is to try and bring more people into the Apple ecosystem. Remember, that number was if AAPL stole all of the competition, which won't happen.

Turning our attention back to the stock, shares of AAPL have a history of going down the week of their WWDC and last week was no exception. The 100-dma near $126 should offer some support.

I am not suggesting new positions in AAPL at this time.

Trade Description: November 2, 2014:
Love it or hate it AAPL always has Wall Street's attention. It has a cult-like following. The company's success has turned AAPL's stock into the biggest big cap in the U.S. markets with a current valuation of more than $633 billion.

The company is involved in multiple industries from hardware, software, and media but it's best known for its consumer electronics. The iPod helped perpetuate the digital music revolution. The iPhone, according to AAPL, is the best smartphone in the world. The iPad helped bring the tablet PC to the mass market. The company makes waves in every industry they touch with a very distinctive brand (iOS, iWork, iLife, iMessage, iCloud, iTunes, etc.) and they've done an amazing job at building an Apple-branded ecosystem. Now they're getting into the electronic payments business with Apple Pay.

The company's latest earnings report was super strong. AAPL reported its Q4 (calendar Q3) results on October 20th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.31 a share on revenues of $39.84 billion. The company delivered a profit f $1.42 a share with revenues up +12.4% to $42.12 billion. The EPS number was a +20% improvement from a year ago. Gross margins were up +1% from a year ago to 38%. International sales were 60% of the company's revenues.

AAPL's iPhone sales exceeded estimates at 39.27 million in the quarter and up nearly 16% from a year ago. The only soft spot in their ecosystem seems to be iPad sales, which have declined several quarters in a row. The company hopes to rejuvenate its tablet sales with a refresh of the iPad models. More importantly AAPL management raised their Q1 (calendar Q4) guidance as they expect revenues in the $63.5-66.5 billion in the quarter. Recent news would suggest that AAPL might deliver an incredible 50 million iPhone 6s in 2014. That's not counting their new iPhone 6+.

The better than expected results and bullish guidance sent the stock to new highs. The rally has created a quadruple top breakout buy signal on its point & figure chart that is currently forecasting at $133 target. Yet we do not want to chase AAPL here. The stock is up $12 from its October low. We do want to be ready if shares see a pullback.

Tonight I am suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger to buy calls at $103.50 with a stop loss at $98.90. (We amended the buy-the-dip trigger to $111.00 on Nov. 30th).

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 09, 2014 - entry price on AAPL @ 110.19, option @ 9.55
symbol: AAPL160115C120 2016 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $13.30/13.40

04/27/15 AAPL crushes earnings estimates (again)
04/12/15 new stop @ 118.00
03/01/15 Caution: AAPL could be poised for a pullback. Consider taking profits now and then re-enter this trade later.
02/22/15 new stop @ 114.00
02/15/15 new stop @ 109.50
12/09/14 triggered on gap down at $110.19, trigger was $111.00
11/30/14 raise the buy-the-dip entry trigger to $111.00
11/16/14 raise the buy-the-dip entry trigger to $108.00
Adjust the strike price to the 2016 Jan $120 call.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 118.00
Play Entered on: 12/09/14
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/02/14


Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 79.86

Comments:
06/14/15: ADBE dipped to support near its 50-dma and its April highs before bouncing back. Shares ended the week with a $1.00 gain. The stock looks poised to breakout higher. However I do not expect shares to move much until the company reports earnings. ADBE is scheduled to announce earnings on Tuesday, June 16th, after the closing bell. Analysts are forecasting $0.45 per share. We can expect shares of ADBE to see some volatility on Wednesday morning in reaction to its earnings news. I would be tempted to launch new positions on a close in the $81-82 region.

Trade Description: May 3, 2015:
ADBE is in the technology sector. According to the company's website, "Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. Content built and optimized with Adobe products is everywhere you look — from websites, video games, and smartphones to televisions, tablets, and beyond. Adobe® Creative Cloud® software offers the most innovative tools for creating digital media, while Adobe Marketing Cloud delivers groundbreaking solutions for data-driven marketing. Our leadership in these two emerging categories, Digital Media and Digital Marketing, provides our customers with a real competitive advantage, positioning Adobe for continued growth well into the future. As one of the largest software companies in the world, Adobe achieved revenue of more than US$4 billion in 2013."

The company's most recent earnings report was March 17th. Results were $0.44 a share, which was five cents better than expected. Revenues were up +10.9% to $1.11 billion, also above expectations. The company continues to see success with their subscription model and added 517,000 new creative cloud subscriptions, a +28% improvement from a year ago.

Technically the stock is in a long-term up trend. Shares just spent the last few weeks consolidating sideways and looks ready for the next move higher. A rise past $78.00 would generate a new buy signal on the point & figure chart.

I am suggesting we wait for ADBE to close above $77.75 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $71.85. More conservative investors may want to wait for ADBE to close over short-term resistance at $80.00 as an alternative entry point for bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 15, 2015 - entry price on ADBE @ 80.00, option @ 4.60
symbol: ADBE160115C85 2016 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $4.05/4.30

05/15/15 trade begins. ADBE opens at $80.00
05/14/15 triggered. ADBE closed @ $79.43, above our trigger of $77.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 71.85
Play Entered on: 05/15/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/03/15


Akamai Technology - AKAM - close: 73.44

Comments:
06/14/15: I am urging caution on our AKAM trade. Shares continue to sink and posted their third weekly loss in a row. The market's big drop on Tuesday last week pushed AKAM below its 50-dma and shares tested support near $72.00. The bad news is that the bounce that followed saw AKAM fail at its 10-dma and 50-dma near $75.00.

I am concerned that if the broader market continues to sink we could see AKAM hit our stop loss at $71.75 soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: March 8, 2015:
If you surf the Internet then you're probably seeing content delivered by AKAM's technology. They help customers speed up online content and have a fast-growing security business.

The company is part of the technology sector. They provide cloud services for delivering content across the Internet. Customers include 47% of the Global 500 companies.

AKAM describes itself as "the global leader in Content Delivery Network (CDN) services, Akamai makes the Internet fast, reliable and secure for its customers. The company's advanced web performance, mobile performance, cloud security and media delivery solutions are revolutionizing how businesses optimize consumer, enterprise and entertainment experiences for any device, anywhere."

Last year was a strong one for earnings and revenue growth. AKAM beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom line the past four quarters in a row. They raised guidance twice. AKAM's average revenue growth last year was +24.5%. Their most recent report was on February 10th where AKAM delivered a profit and revenue number above expectations. Several analyst firms raised their price target on AKAM following its Q4 results.

Management hosted an investor day in late February. They expect sales growth to be in the high teens for 2015. They forecasting sales to hit $5 billion by 2020 compared to about $2 billion in 2014. AKAM reported that their cyber security business is surging with +191% growth last year.

This week AKAM disclosed in their 10-K filing that they were conducting an internal probe into their sales practices in a foreign country. They didn't say which country. This is a potential risk if the U.S. government decides to do their own investigation but the stock didn't really react that much to the news.

It is worth noting that there has been some speculation that AKAM is a buyout target. One analyst suggested that Amazon.com (AMZN) could be a suitor.

After a big rally in February the upward momentum in AKAM has stalled. Shares look like they could see a correction lower. If that occurs then prior resistance near $65.00 should be significant support. We want to be ready to take advantage of the weakness.

Tonight I'm suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger to buy calls if AKAM dips to $65.25. We'll start this trade with a stop at $59.75.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 25, 2015 - entry price on AKAM @ 71.50, option @ 4.15
symbol: AKAM160115C80 2016 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $3.45/3.60

05/17/15 new stop @ 71.75
05/02/15 new stop @ 69.00
03/25/15 Triggered at $71.50
03/22/15 Strategy update: Move the buy-the-dip trigger to $71.50, move the stop loss to $67.90, adjust the option to the 2016 Jan. $80.00 call
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 71.75
Play Entered on: 03/25/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/08/15


Anthem Inc. - ANTM - close: 160.71

Comments:
06/14/15: Warning! Our ANTM could be in trouble. Two weeks ago this stock created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern on its weekly chart. This past week ANTM posted another loss, which technically confirms the reversal. ANTM still has short-term support near $160.00 but if the market continues to sink I expect ANTM to break that level. More conservative investors may want to consider an early exit now or consider raising your stop loss closer to the simple 50-dma near $158.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 10, 2015:
The Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare) was first feared by healthcare companies. Now they have embraced it. Obamacare has definitely been good for ANTM with waves of new enrollees.

ANTM, previously known as Wellpoint, is in the healthcare sector. According to the company, "Anthem is working to transform health care with trusted and caring solutions. Our health plan companies deliver quality products and services that give their members access to the care they need. With nearly 71 million people served by its affiliated companies, including more than 38 million enrolled in its family of health plans, Anthem is one of the nation’s leading health benefits companies."

ANTM has raised its guidance the last four quarters in a row! Their most recent earnings report was April 29th. ANTM delivered their 2015 Q1 results of $3.14 per share. That was 45 cents above estimates. Revenues came in below expectations but traders didn't care because ANTM raised their guidance above Wall Street's estimate.

Now analysts are starting to raise their price targets on the stock. Shares have broken out of a multi-week consolidation pattern. ANTM is poised to rally through resistance near $160.00 and hit new all-time highs.

Tonight I am suggesting we wait for ANTM to close above $161.00 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $152.00.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 18, 2015 - entry price on ANTM @ 162.00, option @ 7.95
symbol: ANTM160115C170 2016 JAN $170 call - current bid/ask $7.40/9.10

06/07/15 Caution: ANTM has generated a potential bearish reversal pattern on its weekly chart
05/24/15 new stop loss @ 154.75
05/18/15 trade begins. ANTM opens at $162.00
05/15/15 Trade is triggered. ANTM closes above our $161.00 trigger
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 154.75
Play Entered on: 05/18/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/10/15


Capital One Financial - COF - close: 87.57

Comments:
06/14/15: Banking stocks were some of the market's better performers last week. We had COF on the watch list. The plan was to wait for shares to breakout past resistance near $85.00 and close in the $86.00-87.00 range. Once that occurred we wanted to buy calls the next morning.

COF closed at $86.93 on June 10th. Our trade opened the next morning at $86.99. If you missed our entry point then consider waiting to buy calls on a dip near $86.00.

Trade Description: June 7, 2015:
Interest rates will rise. The Federal Reserve has kept its main interest near zero (0.0%) since December 2008. There has been mountains of speculation on when the fed will finally raise rates. It looks like they could start in September this year. If not this year then definitely next year. Rising rates are going to be bullish for big banks.

COF describes itself as, "Capital One Financial Corporation (www.capitalone.com) is a financial holding company whose subsidiaries, which include Capital One, N.A., and Capital One Bank (USA), N. A., had $205.5 billion in deposits and $308.9 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2014. Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, Capital One offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients through a variety of channels. Capital One, N.A. has branches located primarily in New York, New Jersey, Texas, Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia."

COF's most recent earnings report was April 23rd. Earnings were $2.00 per share, which was 13 cents above estimates. Management said they saw strong loan growth. The company has recently raised their dividend and they have a big stock buy back program.

The stock has been stuck under resistance near $85.00 for almost a year. The stock's posture changed when it recovered from its January 2015 lows near $73. Since then COF has been rising in a bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs. Now it's poised to breakout past key resistance at $85.00. The point & figure chart is already bullish and forecasting at $97.00 target.

I am suggesting we look for COF to close in the $86.00-87.00 zone as our entry point. Then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $81.75. This is a long-term trade. We're using the 2017 calls.

Just a reminder - use 2017 calls.

- Suggested Positions -
JUN 11, 2015 - entry price on COF @ 86.99, option @ 3.95
symbol: COF170120C100 2017 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $2.85/3.95

06/11/15 trade begins. COF opens at $86.99
06/10/15 Triggered with COF closing at $86.93
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart of COF:

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 81.75
Play Entered on: 06/11/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/07/15


Tableau Software - DATA - close: 119.08

Comments:
06/14/15: Last week DATA garnered some bullish analyst comments and a new $130 price target. This helped lift shares to new highs. DATA is now challenging potential round-number resistance at $120.

Tonight I am raising our stop loss to $109.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: April 26, 2015:
The market for analyzing big business data is growing fast. DATA is leading the charge. According to the company, "Tableau Software (NYSE: DATA) helps people see and understand data. Tableau helps anyone quickly analyze, visualize and share information. More than 26,000 customer accounts get rapid results with Tableau in the office and on-the-go. And tens of thousands of people use Tableau Public to share data in their blogs and websites."

The last couple of earnings reports have been very impressive. DATA released their Q3 results on November 5, 2014. Results were 12 cents above estimates with revenues up +71% to $104.5 million, also above estimates.

Their Q4 results came out in early February. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.11 a share on revenues of $122.58 million. DATA delivered $0.42 a share with revenues up +75% to $142.9 million. In the fourth quarter they added 2,600 new customers. They closed 304 transactions worth more than $100,000, a +70% improvement from a year ago.

Christian Chabot, Chief Executive Officer of Tableau. "In 2014, we experienced the strongest demand we've seen in our history, as the move to agile analytics grows faster than ever."

Management offered earnings guidance that was in-line with Wall Street estimates but they see revenues coming in above expectations.

Wall Street is bullish and the last couple of weeks have seen new price targets at $115 and $127. The point & figure chart is forecasting at $117.00 target.

DATA has been talked about as a potential take over target and that might be why their options are so expensive. DATA's next earnings report is coming up on May 7th. More conservative traders may want to sit this one out until we see how the market reacts to DATA's Q1 results.

I am labeling this a more aggressive play because shares can be volatile with multi-point single-day moves. Tonight we want to buy calls on a dip at $100.00.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 27, 2015 - entry price on DATA @ 100.00, option @ 12.10
symbol: DATA160115C110 2016 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $19.40/21.00

06/14/15 new stop @ 109.00
06/07/15 new stop @ 104.85
05/24/15 new stop @ 102.75
05/17/15 new stop @ 97.40
05/10/15 new stop loss @ 94.75
05/08/15 the stock soars to new highs in reaction to earnings and a couple of upgrades.
05/07/15 DATA delivered better than expected earnings and raises guidance above Wall Street expectations
04/27/15 triggered @ $100.00
Remember, this is a higher-risk trade. Consider small positions to limit risk.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 109.00
Play Entered on: 04/27/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/26/15


iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF - EWI - close: 15.55

Comments:
06/14/15: The Italian market held up better than its German rival. The EWI found support in the $15.20 region three days in a row before finally rebounding.

The Greek situation remains our biggest risk. The next two or three weeks is probably the make or break point for Greece and this trade.

No new positions at this time.

FYI: (previous comments) If Greece ends up leaving the Eurozone or defaults on its debt it will generate significant market volatility in Europe. I would expect EWI to hit our stop if we do see a Greek exit.

Trade Description: April 5, 2015:
Italy could be on the brink of an economic turnaround. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Italy could escape from its chronic economic fatigue. The country's economic growth has been slowing down for years with growth falling from +2% in the 1980s to +1.4% in the 1990s to just +0.6% in the 2000s. The country has averaged -0.5% growth since 2010.

The situation appears to be changing. Markit's manufacturing PMI data for March hit 53.3, an 11-month high. Numbers above 50.0 suggest growth. UniCredit is forecasting Italian GDP growth of +0.2% in Q1 2015, which would snap the country out of its three-year recession.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has upgraded their forecast on Italy for 2015 and 2016. They now see growth of +0.6% in 2015 and +1.3% in 2016.

The combination of lower oil prices and a weaker euro to boost exports should boost European economic growth. Plus, the European Central Bank (ECB) just launched a 60 billion euro QE program in March 2015 that will last at least through September 2016 or longer if they don't hit their 2% inflation target.

Investors know that QE helped fuel a multi-year rally in the U.S. stock market and they are expecting a similar reaction in the European stock markets.

The EWI could be a way to play it. This is an ETF that mimics the MSCI Italy 25/50 index. Underlying stocks are traded on the Milan stock exchange. It's one of the most liquid ETFs focused on Italy.

Technically the EWI appears to have formed an inverse (bullish version) of a head-and-shoulders pattern. It's also on the verge of breaking out past its simple 200-dma. Tonight I am suggesting investors wait for the EWI to close above $15.25 and then buy calls the next morning.

Warning: The biggest risk is probably a Greek exit from the Eurozone. Negative headlines that suggest the Greek might exit could generate a lot of volatility in the EWI.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 07, 2015 - entry price on EWI @ 15.31, option @ 2.35
symbol: EWI170120C15 2017 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $1.40/2.40

06/07/15 Caution: The EWI appears to have formed a bearish double top. Conservative investors may want to exit early now!
05/17/15 new stop @ 14.70
05/03/15 new stop @ 14.40
04/07/15 trade begins. EWI opens at $15.31
04/06/15 EWI closed @ 15.29, above our trigger of $15.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 14.70
Play Entered on: 04/07/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/05/15


Facebook, Inc. - FB - close: 81.53

Comments:
06/14/15: It was disappointing to see shares of FB fail at resistance near $83.00 for the second week in a row. Lack of follow through on the prior week's rally is worrisome but traders did buy the dip on Tuesday and is building a new bullish trend of higher lows.

There has been plenty of rumor that FB might try and buy Twitter (TWTR) now that TWTR's CEO has left. Another potential suitor is Google. I haven't really heard anyone with a compelling argument about how TWTR would be beneficial to FB other than buying it as a defensive move to maintain FB's position as the dominant social media platform.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: March 22, 2015:
Facebook probably needs no introduction. It's the largest social media platform on the planet. As of December 31st, 2014 the company reported 1.19 billion monthly active users and 890 million daily active users. If FB were a country that probably puts them as the third most populous country on the planet (behind India and China).

This past week the company announced a new mobile payment service through FB's messenger app. The new service will compete with similar programs through PayPal, Apple Pay, and Google Wallet.

The announcement combined with a broad market rally helped fuel a +7% gain in FB's stock last week. FB's market cap has risen past $230 billion making it the tenth largest company in the S&P 500.

Growth has been phenomenal. According to IBD, FB's Q4 earnings were up +69% form a year ago. Revenues were up +49%. Wall Street is expecting FB's profit to rise +12% in 2015 and +32% in 2016.

Technically shares of FB have broken out from a very significant consolidation pattern. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $96.00 target. I think it will go higher. After a five-day run we do not want to chase it here. I'm suggesting a buy-the-dip entry trigger at $82.00 with a stop loss at $74.75.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 01, 2015 - entry price on FB @ 81.00, option @ 4.92
symbol: FB160115C90 2016 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $3.30/3.45

04/23/15 Q1 earnings report
04/01/15 triggered @ 81.00
03/29/15 move the buy-the-dip trigger from $82.00 down to $81.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 74.75
Play Entered on: 04/01/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/22/15


FireEye Inc. - FEYE - close: 51.80

Comments:
06/14/15: FEYE maintained its recent gains and actually extended the current rally to four up weeks in a row. Shares look poised to breakout past short-term resistance near $52.30 if the market would cooperate.

Currently our stop loss is pretty wide at $43.85. More conservative investors may want to use a higher stop.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 31, 2015:
The cyber attack on media giant Sony last year was headline news for weeks. It was a major warning bell for corporations around the world to spend more on cyber security. Today it still seems like every week we hear about some high-profile cyber attack. Online criminals and saboteurs are growing more sophisticated and that's fueling corporate demand for high-tech defenses.

The company describes itself as, "FireEye has invented a purpose-built, virtual machine-based security platform that provides real-time threat protection to enterprises and governments worldwide against the next generation of cyber attacks. These highly sophisticated cyber attacks easily circumvent traditional signature-based defenses, such as next-generation firewalls, IPS, anti-virus, and gateways. The FireEye Threat Prevention Platform provides real-time, dynamic threat protection without the use of signatures to protect an organization across the primary threat vectors and across the different stages of an attack life cycle. The core of the FireEye platform is a virtual execution engine, complemented by dynamic threat intelligence, to identify and block cyber attacks in real time. FireEye has over 3,100 customers across 67 countries, including over 200 of the Fortune 500."

The stock was a real high flyer in late 2013 and into 2014. Shares began to fade in early 2014 and then really got crushed when FEYE issued an earnings warning in May 2014. FEYE spent the rest of 2014 consolidating sideways in a very wide $25-40 trading range.

This year FEYE's stock has seen a reversal of fortunes. Suddenly shares are soaring and up more than +45% thanks to better than expected earnings results. FEYE's reported its 2014 Q4 results on February 11th. Earnings improved from a loss of 50 cents a year ago to a loss of 38 cents in the fourth quarter, which was eleven cents better than expected. Revenues soared a whopping +149% to $143 million, which was above expectations.

Management guided 2015 earnings and revenues essentially in-line with consensus. The company is forecasting revenues in the $605-625 million range. FEYE expects a 2015 loss of $1.80 to $1.90 per share. Gross margins are expected to be in the 71-75 percent range.

Analysts have expressed concern with the surge in FEYE's spending but management said they are spending in-line with the company's growth. FEYE CEO Dave DeWalt said FEYE saw its growth double in 2014 and is up tenfold in the last three years.

The trend of improving results continued in the first quarter of 2015. FEYE reported earnings on April 30th. Wall Street was expecting a loss of ($0.51) a share on revenues of $120.5 million. FEYE delivered a loss of ($0.48) per share. Revenues surged +69.5% to $125.4 million. Guidance was in-line with their prior forecast.

The results were good enough that multiple analysts firms have raised their price target on FEYE in the last month. Jim Cramer talks about cyber security stocks on his CNBC show last week. I don't watch Cramer's show but he essentially said that cyber security stocks like FEYE could be great long-term investments. He's probably right. Hacking attacks on corporations have been getting worse every year. They are not going away. It's a constant arms race between hackers versus security specialists. Cyber security is going to be a long-term need for every corporation big or small.

Meanwhile FEYE has seen great success with its cyber security subscription services. This is great for the company since they get recurring revenues and not a one-time sale. Management also believes they have a ton of opportunity overseas. Most of their sales are in the U.S. but cyber security is a global need.

Technically the stock has been showing relative strength the last couple of weeks. FEYE appears to have broken out from its recent pennant-shaped consolidation pattern over the last three months. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $61 target.

Tonight I am suggesting we wait for FEYE to close above $47.25 and buy calls the next day. Please note I am setting an entry range to prevent buying a big spike. Wait for FEYE to close inside the $47.25-48.50 range. Then buy calls the next morning. Keep in mind that FEYE can be a volatile stock. Traders may want to consider this a slightly more aggressive trade. Consider smaller positions to limit risk.

- Suggested Positions -
JUN 02, 2015 - entry price on FEYE @ 47.40, option @ 3.90
symbol: FEYE160115C55 2016 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $5.50/6.00

06/07/15 new stop @ 43.85
06/02/15 Trade begins. FEYE opens at $47.40
06/01/15 Triggered. FEYE closed @ $47.26, inside our $47.25-48.50 entry zone.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 43.85
Play Entered on: 06/02/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/31/15


Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 117.66

Comments:
06/14/15: The major biotech ETFs posted declines for the week. GILD managed to ignore its industry weakness and the stock rallied to new all-time highs. Friday's dip pared its gain for the week down to $3.70.

Broken resistance near $115.00 should offer some support. Tonight we are raising the stop loss up to $109.75. More conservative investors may want to use a higher stop loss.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 3, 2015:
GILD seems to be everyone's favorite biotech stock. I only hear bullish opinions about the future of the company, and for good reason. They have some pretty amazing treatments with products for HIV/AIDS, liver diseases, oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, and more. GILD has essentially revolutionized how we treat major diseases like HIV and Hepatitis C.

According to the company website, "Gilead Sciences, Inc. is a research-based biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes innovative medicines in areas of unmet medical need. We strive to transform and simplify care for people with life-threatening illnesses around the world. Gilead's portfolio of products and pipeline of investigational drugs includes treatments for HIV/AIDS, liver diseases, cancer and inflammation, and serious respiratory and cardiovascular conditions."

Last year (2014) everyone has been raving over GILD's hepatitis C treatment called Sovaldi. Hepatitis C is a form of viral hepatitis that causes chronic inflammation of the liver. About 185 million people currently suffer with hepatitis C. Previously the most common treatment for hepatitis C had serious side effects and was less than 50% successful. GILD changed that with their Sovaldi drug that not only treats the symptoms but actually cures the patient. The company has drawn some negative publicity over the cost since GILD charges $84,000 for a 12-week course of Sovaldi in the United States. The fact that 80% to 90% of patients who take Sovaldi are cured is a major milestone.

The Financial Times noted that before Sovaldi the impact of hepatitis C in the U.S. took a heavy toll on the healthcare system. The disease can lead to liver failure and cancer, both of which cost significantly more than Sovaldi's $84,000 price target. Hepatitis C is the leading cause for liver transplants in the U.S., which can cost a minimum of $145,000. One consulting firm estimated that the annual cost of hepatitis C to the U.S. healthcare system was going to surge from $30 billion to $85 billion in the next twenty years. Sovaldi has the potential to change. that.

The company is a cash machine. Their Q2 2014 revenues soared +136%. Q3 revenues were up +117%. Q4 2014 sales were +134%. They also announced a $15 billion stock buyback program.

GILD's most recent earnings report was their 2015 Q1 announcement on April 30th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $2.32 per share on revenues of $6.89 billion. GILD delivered $2.94 per share with revenues rising +51.9% to $7.59 billion. Management then raised their 2015 sales forecast from $26-27 billion to $28-29 billion.

Technically shares of GILD have been consolidating sideways under a trend of lower highs for months. The last half of April appears to have produced a bullish breakout but GILD still has resistance in the $106 area. Tonight I am suggesting we wait for GILD to close above $106.50 and then buy calls the next morning.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 15, 2015 - entry price on GILD @ 109.05, option @ 7.75
symbol: GILD160115C115 2016 JAN $115 call - current bid/ask $11.10/11.20

06/14/15 new stop @ 109.75
06/07/15 new stop @ 106.50
05/31/15 new stop @ 104.00
05/15/15 Trade begins. GILD opens at $109.05
05/14/15 Triggered. GILD closed @ 108.74, above our trigger of $106.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 109.75
Play Entered on: 05/15/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/03/15


iShares US Home Construction ETF - ITB - close: 26.90

Comments:
06/14/15: The ITB is only up 25 cents for the week but it looks a lot healthier today than it did a week ago. Traders bought the dip near $26.00 on Tuesday and shares rebounded. There is still short-term resistance near $27.10 and its 50-dma so I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

This week we're going to get more data on the residential real estate market. If it's positive it could give the ITB a boost.

Earlier Comments: January 11, 2015:
The ITB is an exchange traded fund that mimics the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index. The top 12 holdings are DHI, LEN, PHM, TOL, NVR, HD, TPH, LOW, RYL, SHW, KBH and MTH.

This index has been stuck in a trading range for years. That looks like it's about to change. Have you looked at a chart of the 10-year bond yield lately? Bond yields are going lower. That's going to pressure mortgage rates lower and that's bullish for home sales. This past week saw 30-year mortgage rates dip below 3.6%. That's a 19-month low.

If that wasn't enough of a tailwind President Obama wants to help. On January 7th the White House announced plans to reduce the government mortgage insurance premiums in an effort to boost home ownership. Another positive for the homebuilders is the U.S. Federal Reserve. We just had two fed governors come out last week saying they think the Fed should hold off on raising rates. The longer the Fed waits to start raising rates the better it will be for homebuilders.

Currently the ITB appears to be breaking out past major resistance and closed at multi-year highs. I'd like to see a little bit more follow through. Tonight I'm suggesting we wait for the ITB to close above $27.00 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $23.95.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 11, 2015 - entry price on ITB @ 27.09, option @ 1.70
symbol: ITB160115C30 2016 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $0.55/0.85

05/31/15 the ITB is not performing well. Investors may want to consider an early exit.
03/01/15 new stop @ $25.45
02/11/15 trade begins. ITB opens at $27.09
02/10/15 ITB closes at $27.10, above our trigger at $27.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: ITB @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 25.45
Play Entered on: 02/11/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/11/15



Level 3 Communications - LVLT - close: 54.75

Comments:
06/14/15: As a LEAPS trader we need patience but I am starting to run out with LVLT. Shares have been drifting sideways in a very narrow range for the last five weeks in a row. The stock is virtually unchanged for the past week.

Readers may want to raise their stop toward last Tuesday's low near $53.80. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: December 28, 2014:
LVLT is a communication services company. Their marketing material describes LVLT as "Level 3 Communications, Inc. is a Fortune 500 company that provides local, national and global communications services to enterprise, government and carrier customers. Level 3's comprehensive portfolio of secure, managed solutions includes fiber and infrastructure solutions; IP-based voice and data communications; wide-area Ethernet services; video and content distribution; data center and cloud-based solutions. Level 3 serves customers in more than 500 markets in over 60 countries over a global services platform anchored by owned fiber networks on three continents and connected by extensive undersea facilities."

They just recently completed a merger with TW Telecom. Earnings have been improving. LVLT has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates the last three quarters in a row. Technically shares have been outperforming the broader market. The NASDAQ composite is up +15% in 2014 while LVLT is up +50%. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target at $75.00.

Currently shares of LVLT are hovering just below key resistance at the $50.00 mark. I am suggesting we wait for LVLT to close above $50.50 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $45.45.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 04, 2015 - entry price on LVLT @ 54.71, option @ 3.90
symbol:LVLT160115C60 2016 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $2.45/2.70

06/07/15 new stop @ 52.75
05/10/15 new stop @ 51.45
04/29/15 Better than expected earnings
04/12/15 Caution! LVLT looks weak. A breakdown under $53.00 probably portends a drop to support at $50.00
03/04/15 trade begins. LVLT opens at $54.71
03/03/15 Triggered. LVLT closed at $54.90, above our trigger of $54.50
02/22/15 Strategy update: Wait for LVLT to close above $54.50, then buy calls the next morning with a new stop at $49.45. Adjust the option strike to 2016 Jan $60 call
02/08/15 Adjust entry point strategy: Buy calls on a dip at $50.75 with a stop loss at $46.25. Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: LVLT @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 52.75
Play Entered on: 03/04/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/28/14


MasterCard Inc. - MA - close: 93.77

Comments:
06/14/15: Friday was a disappointing end to an up week for MA. Shares have been churning sideways in the $91-94.50 zone for the last four weeks in a row. Thursday's rally looked like a bullish breakout from this trading range but there was no follow through on Friday.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 3, 2015:
We are adding MA back to the watch list. Here's our recent watch list play description from April:

Do you have a credit card? How about a debit card? Odds are you do. About 70% of Americans have a credit card and many have more than one. Inside the United States there are over 500 million credit cards between American Express, MA, and Visa. There's more than 1.12 billion globally (not counting the U.S.). There's also another 572 million MA or Visa debit cards in the U.S. (MasterCard has more than 144 million). Not counting America there are more than 1.2 billion debit cards around the world.

Now what if you could charge a small percentage for consumers using their plastic every time they make a purchase? That's MA's business model. As of 2013 their market share of global transactions (credit or debit) was about 27%. They are the second biggest credit and debit card company behind Visa (V). According to the company, "MasterCard (MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world's fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard's products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone."

MA has been delivering steady growth. They reported their Q3 results on October 30th with earnings up +19% from a year ago to $0.87 a share. That beat estimates. Revenues were up +12.8% to $2.5 billion, also above expectations. The bullish trend continued when MA reported its 2014 Q4 results on January 30th. Earnings per share soared +32% from a year ago to $0.69 and revenues grew +13.6% to $2.42 billion. Both metrics were above Wall Street expectations.

The company did warn that the surge in the U.S. dollar was impacting results but they still see strong single-digit revenue growth for 2015. They reaffirmed +20% earnings growth.

Meanwhile one of MA's biggest rivals, American Express (AXP), is not having a good year. AXP lost its exclusive deal with Costco (COST) last month. This deal generated 20% of AXP's loans and about 10% of their annual card growth. AXP is also losing its partnership with JetBlue (JBLU). AXP's losses will likely be MA's and Visa's gain.

Recently MA announced it had signed a 10-year deal with Citigroup. Not only is Citigroup one of the biggest banks on the planet they are the largest credit card issuer in the world. The press release states "Citi will begin aligning the company's consumer proprietary credit and debit portfolios to the MasterCard network in 2015." One analyst has already opined that the deal should provide a "decent tailwind for EPS growth" (for MA). Speaking of opinions, a couple of analysts at Nomura believe that MA is cheap at current valuations and could be seen as safe haven investment given their steady earnings growth.

"Despite a mixed global economy, we delivered solid results for the quarter and for the full year in 2014," said Ajay Banga, president and CEO, MasterCard. "This year is off to a good start with several new wins, as well as renewals of some important customer agreements, with more in the pipeline. Looking ahead, we will continue to be at the forefront of our industry by driving payment innovation with solutions such as MasterPass, and by increasing electronic payments usage globally as demonstrated by our significant expanded acceptance footprint across Africa."

Shares of MA look like a potential trade again. The company recently reported earnings on April 29th. The beat estimates on the bottom line with a profit of $0.89 per share. Revenues were only up +2.7% to $2.23 billion, which was below expectations. Part of the challenge were currency headwinds.

Wall Street seems to think that MA will do well in spite of the tough business environment. The spike higher on April 22nd was news that the country of China was going to open up their market to foreign companies. Previously companies like MA and Visa could only do business in China by partnering with a domestic firm (China UnionPay). Now the Chinese government is opening up the bank card-clearing market to foreigners. This is huge. The Chinese market for this business was $6.8 trillion in transactions last year. Now MA gets a chance to compete for its share of this business.

Shares of MA still have resistance near $93.00. We want to see MA close above $93.25 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $88.00.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 11, 2015 - entry price on MA @ 93.48, option @ 5.95
symbol: MA160115C95 2016 JAN $95 call - current bid/ask $5.35/5.55

05/11/15 trade begins. MA opens at $93.48
05/08/15 triggered with a close @ $93.51 (above $93.25)
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: MA @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 88.00
Play Entered on: 05/11/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/03/15


Nike, Inc. - NKE - close: 103.78

Comments:
06/14/15: The stock market's rally on Wednesday and Thursday launched NKE from support near $101 and its 50-dma toward resistance near $105 and its May highs. There was no follow through on Friday so NKE remains in this trading range.

In other news NKE has committed to a $1 billion eight-year contract to make uniforms for the NBA after Adidas decided to walk away after their contract runs out in 2017. NKE will become the exclusive oncourt uniform and apparel provider of the NBA, WNBA, and the NBA D-league.

Meanwhile the U.S. is investigating NKE's involvement in Brazilian soccer for any potential wrongdoing. This is fallout from the recent FIFA scandal where authorities cracked down on corruption charges within the soccer organization. Evidently the U.S. is looking into millions of dollar of "marketing fees" that NKE paid back in 1996. Thus far this investigation has not had much impact on NKE's stock price but it makes me nervous.

No new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: March 29, 2015:
In Greek mythology Nike is the winged goddess of victory. It's an appropriate brand name for the American athletic wear giant. Nike is the 800-pound gorilla in the industry with annual sales of more than $30 billion.

If you're not familiar with the company, "NIKE, Inc., based near Beaverton, Oregon, is the world’s leading designer, marketer and distributor of authentic athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories for a wide variety of sports and fitness activities. Wholly-owned NIKE, Inc. subsidiaries include Converse Inc., which designs, markets and distributes athletic lifestyle footwear, apparel and accessories, and Hurley International LLC, which designs, markets and distributes surf and youth lifestyle footwear, apparel and accessories."

The company's most recent earnings report was March 19th, after the closing bell. NKE reported its Q3 2015 results. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.84 a share on revenues of $7.62 billion. NKE delivered a profit of +0.89 a share or +16% from a year ago. Revenues were up +7% to $7.46 billion. However, if you back out the currency headwinds, their revenues were up +13%.

The company reported sales growth across every geographical region. Their gross margins improved 140 basis points to 45.9 percent. Management said their online sales are soaring. Nike.com saw its revenues jump +42% last quarter.

The current quarter is NKE's 2015 Q4 (March-July) and the company said orders for Q4 in North America are up +15%, which is above analysts' estimates of +11.6%. Orders from China are up +11%, also above estimates. In the company's earnings release NKE said, "As of the end of the quarter, worldwide futures orders for NIKE Brand athletic footwear and apparel scheduled for delivery from March 2015 through July 2015 were 2 percent higher than orders reported for the same period last year. Excluding currency changes, reported orders would have increased 11 percent."

One big concern is the U.S. dollar. Sales in Europe were up +21% but when you factor in euro weakness and dollar strength that sales growth drops to +10%. The strength in the U.S. dollar is a major headwind but after NKE's Q3 results Wall Street feels that the company is managing the currency impact very well. The company is forecasting low double digit sales growth in the current quarter.

Wall Street applauded the results and shares of NKE gapped open higher on March 20th to hit all-time highs. There was a parade of bullish analyst comments. Several firms raised their price target on NKE. Here's a brief list of new price target: $106, $110, $115, $116.00. The point & figure chart is more optimistic as it is forecasting at $125.00 target.

Shares of NKE have seen some profit taking, which isn't a surprise considering the market's recent decline. However, now that NKE has filled the gap, traders jumped in to buy the dip. The stock looks poised to breakout past round-number resistance at $100.00 (again). Tonight I am suggesting investors wait for NIKE to close above $101.00 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $94.45.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 11, 2015 - entry price on NKE @ 102.42, option @ 4.20
symbol: NKE160115C110 2016 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $3.95/4.15

06/07/15 new stop @ 97.85
05/31/15 NKE down last week on rumors it might be involved in the FIFA scandal
05/11/15 trade begins. NKE opens at $102.42
05/08/15 Triggered with a close @ $102.44 (above 102.00)
05/03/15 move the stop loss from 95.75 to 97.45
04/12/15 Strategy update: adjust the trigger to a close above $102.00 and the stop loss to $95.75 (from a close above $101.00 and a stop at $94.45)
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: NKE @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 97.85
Play Entered on: 05/11/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/29/15


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 52.63

Comments:
06/14/15: Traders bought the dip in SBUX near its bullish trend line of higher lows. Shares bounced to a new all-time high. The stock is up five weeks in a row.

The breakout past resistance near $52.00 is bullish. While I would be tempted to buy calls here I'm worried SBUX is short-term overbought.

Trade Description: April 26, 2015:
SBUX shares are soaring to new all-time highs.

The world seems to have an insatiable appetite for coffee. Starbucks is more than happy to help fill that need. The first Starbucks opened in Seattle back in 1971. Today they are a global brand with locations in 66 countries. SBUX operates more than 21,000 retail stores with more than 300,000 workers.

A few years ago Business Insider published some facts on SBUX. The average SBUX customer stops by six times a month. The really loyal, top 20% of customers, come in 16 times a month. There are nearly 90,000 potential drink combinations at your local Starbucks. The company spends more money on healthcare for its employees than it does on coffee beans.

The company's earnings results were only mediocre most of 2014 year. You can see the results in SBUX's long-term chart below. After incredible gains in 2013 SBUX has essentially consolidated sideways in 2014. The good news is that looks the consolidation is over.

Five-Year Plan

Late last year SBUX announced their five-year plan to increase profitability. Here's an excerpt from a company press release:

"The seismic shift in consumer behavior underway presents tremendous opportunity for businesses the world over that are prepared and positioned to seize it," Schultz said (Howard Schultz is the Founder, Chairman, President, and CEO of Starbucks). "Over the next five years, Starbucks will continue to lean into this new era by innovating in transformational ways across coffee, tea and retail, elevating our customer and partner experiences, continuing to extend our leadership position in digital and mobile technologies, and unlocking new markets, channels and formats around the world. Investing in our coffee, our people and the communities we serve will remain at our core as we continue to redefine the role and responsibility of a public company in today's disruptive global consumer, economic and retail environments."

"Starbucks business, operations and growth trajectory around the world have never been stronger, and we are more confident than ever in our ability to continue to drive significant growth and meet our long term financial targets," said Troy Alstead, Starbucks chief operating officer. "We have more customers visiting more stores more frequently, both in the U.S. and around the world, than at any time in our history. And we expect both the number of customers visiting our stores and the amount they spend with us to accelerate in the years ahead. With a robust pipeline of mobile commerce innovations that will drive transactions and unprecedented speed of service, Starbucks is ushering in a new era of customer convenience. We believe the runway of opportunity for Starbucks inside and outside of our stores is both vast and unmatched by any other retailer on the planet."

The company believes they can grow revenues from $16 billion in FY2014 to almost $30 billion by FY2019. To do that they will expand deeper into regions like China, Japan, India, and Brazil. SBUX expects to nearly double its stores in China to over 3,000 locations in the next five years

They're also working hard on their mobile ordering technology to speed up the experience so customers don't have to wait in line so long at their busiest locations. This will also include a delivery service.

Part of the five-year plan is a new marketing campaign called Starbucks Evening experience. The company wants to be the "third place" between home and work. After 4:00 p.m. they will start offering alcohol, mainly wine and beer, in addition to new tapas-like smaller plates.

The company recently launched its first ever Starbucks Reserve Roastery and Tasting Room in Seattle, near their iconic first retail store. The new roastery is supposed to be the ultimate coffee lovers experience. CEO Schultz said they will eventually open up about 100 of these Starbucks Reserve locations.

SBUX is having a pretty good 2015 so far with the stock up +26%, outperforming the broader market. A lot of this gain was thanks to a post-earnings pops. SBUX reported its Q1 2015 results on January 22nd. Adjusted earnings, backing out one-time charges, were $0.80 a share. That's in-line with estimates. Revenues were up +13.3% to $4.8 billion, also in-line with estimates. It was a very strong holiday period for SBUX thanks in part to astonishing gift card sales. The amount of money loaded onto SBUX gift cards during the holidays surged +17% to a record $1.6 billion. One out of every seven Americans received a SBUX gift card. The company also saw significant growth overseas with its China and Asia-Pacific business soaring +85% to sales of $495 million. Their mobile transactions have reached seven million transactions a week. Investors applauded the news anyway and sent SBUX soaring to new all-time highs the next day.

That whole scenario just happened again on Friday with the company delivering exceptional growth. SBUX reported its Q2 (2015) on April 23rd. Earnings of $0.33 a share were in-line with estimates. Revenues were up +17.8% to $4.56 billion, slightly above expectations. It was their strongest growth in four years. Customers are responding well to new drink options and an updated food menu. They're also developing new delivery options, mobile pay options, and alcoholic drinks available at select locations.

Worldwide same-store sales grew +7%. This was significantly above estimates. It also marked the 21st consecutive quarter where SBUX's comparable store sales were +5% or more.

The company issued mixed guidance. The stronger dollar is having an impact. They see fiscal 2015 results in the $1.55-1.57 range. That compares to Wall Street estimates for $1.57 per share. However, the company's revenue estimates are more optimistic. They're forecasting +16-18% sales growth into the $19.1-19.4 billion zone compares to analysts' estimates of $19.1 billion.

The stock market applauded SBUX's results and shares popped to new highs. We do not want to chase it. Shares will likely fill the gap from Friday morning. Tonight I am suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger at $50.00. More nimble traders may want to consider a trigger closer to $49.70 instead.

- Suggested Positions -
APR 28, 2015 - entry price on SBUX @ 50.00, option @ 1.59
symbol:SBUX160115C55 2016 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $2.40/2.45

06/07/15 new stop @ 49.25
05/31/15 new stop @ 48.25
04/28/15 triggered @ 50.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: SBUX @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 49.25
Play Entered on: 04/28/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/26/15


Textron Inc. - TXT - close: 45.96

Comments:
06/14/15: The market's big bounce on Wednesday launched TXT from its bullish trend of higher lows and back into the middle of its rising channel.

Last week's rebound snapped a three-week trend of losses but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: February 15, 2015:
TXT is in the industrial goods sector. They deal mostly in the aerospace industry. According to the company, "Textron Inc. is a multi-industry company that leverages its global network of aircraft, defense, industrial and finance businesses to provide customers with innovative solutions and services. Textron is known around the world for its powerful brands such as Bell Helicopter, Cessna, Beechcraft, Hawker, Jacobsen, Kautex, Lycoming, E-Z-GO, Greenlee, and Textron Systems."

The earnings picture last year was mixed. Better than expected results and bullish guidance helped power a big rally last October. Their most recent earnings report was January 28th. TXT's earnings of $0.76 a share were up +26% from a year ago but 1 cent worse than Wall Street estimates. Revenues were up +16.8% to $4.1 billion, also below estimates.

It's interesting how TXT missed Wall Street's earnings estimates on both the top and bottom line and management lowered their guidance for all of 2015. Yet the stock did not sell off. Normally an earnings miss or weak guidance would spark significant selling. Instead investors just calmly bought the dip and now TXT is breaking out to new multi-year highs.

If bad news like that can't shake the stock lower then the path of least resistance is definitely higher. The last couple of months look like a significant consolidation pattern and now TXT has produced a bullish breakout past resistance in the $44.00-44.50 zone. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target at $67.00.

Tonight I am suggesting small bullish positions if TXT can close above $45.10. Wait for shares to close above this level and then buy calls the next morning.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 25, 2015 - entry price on TXT @ 45.30, option @ 3.00
symbol: TXT160115C50 2016 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $1.51/1.89

06/07/15 new stop @ 42.90
05/03/15 new stop @ 42.40
04/12/15 new stop @ 41.85
02/25/15 trade begins. TXT opens at $45.30
02/24/15 TXT closed @ $45.33, above our trigger of $45.10
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: TXT @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 42.90
Play Entered on: 02/25/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/15/15




CLOSED Plays


Ashland, Inc. - ASH - close: 126.50

Comments:
06/14/15: Last weekend we decided to drop ASH for lack of movement. Shares continued to churn sideways. The short-term trend of lower highs is still in play. ASH looks poised to test support near $125.00 soon.

Our play was closed on Monday, June 8th.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 12, 2015 - entry price on ASH @ 127.49, option @ 4.00
symbol: ASH160115C140 2016 JAN $140 call - exit $2.10 (-47.5%)

06/08/15 planned exit
06/07/15 Prepare to exit on Monday (June 8th)
05/12/15 Trade begins. ASH gaps lower at $127.49
05/11/15 Triggered. ASH closed at $131.52, above our trigger of 131.25
05/10/15 Adjust entry trigger to a close above $131.25 (was 130.75)
04/26/15 Do not open positions if ASH gaps open above $132.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 124.75
Play Entered on: 05/12/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/12/15


iShares MSCI Germany - EWG - close: 29.20

Comments:
06/14/15: Some of the European markets experienced significant volatility as the Greek debt crisis continues to drag on. The EWG pierce support near $28.50 and its 200-dma on Tuesday. Our stop loss was hit at $28.40.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 23, 2015 - entry price on EWG @ 30.24, option @ 1.95
symbol: EWG160115C30 2016 JAN $30 call - exit $0.75 (-61.5%)

06/09/15 stopped out @ 28.40
06/07/15 It's not looking good for Greece and European stocks are falling
05/10/15 new stop @ 28.40
03/23/15 Trade begins. EWG opens at $30.24
03/20/15 EWG closed @ $30.26, above our suggested entry: a close above $30.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 28.40
Play Entered on: 03/23/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/22/15


SolarCity Corp. - SCTY - close: 55.15

Comments:
06/14/15: It was another ugly week for SCTY. Actually it wasn't just SCTY. Solar energy stocks as a group continued to plunge before bouncing midweek. The bad news for SCTY investors is that the stock didn't bounce very high and looks poised to keep falling after notching its third weekly loss in a row.

Our trade was stopped out on June 8th at $57.40.

- Suggested Positions -
MAY 15, 2015 - entry price on SCTY @ 62.62, option @ 5.40
symbol:SCTY160115C70 2016 JAN $70 call - exit $2.86 (-47.0%)

06/08/15 stopped out @ 57.40
06/07/15 SCTY is testing support near its 50-dma. If shares don't bounce here we'll most likely be stopped out
05/31/15 Caution! SCTY looks weak and poised to breakdown under $60
05/15/15 trade begins. SCTY opens at $62.62
05/14/15 triggered. SCTY closed @ $62.72, above our trigger of $62.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: SCTY @ TBD
Current Stop loss: 57.40
Play Entered on: 05/15/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/10/15