Editor's Note:

The stock market's widespread plunge last week played havoc with our active play list. Several stocks were stopped out as the selling pressure intensified.

We did see HD, PPC, and STZ all graduate from our watch list to our play list but HD was stopped out by week's end.


Closed Plays


HD, MSFT, NOC, OA, PEP, RCL, RHT, SWHC, and TRV were stopped out.



Play Updates


Adobe System Inc. - ADBE - close: $89.17

Comments:
01/17/16: It was another rough week for the stock market but ADBE managed to post a gain. Shares spent most of last week consolidating sideways in the $88-92 zone. The market's plunge on Friday pushed ADBE to gap down at $86.84 but that was the low of the day. The stock pared its loss to -0.7% on the session and back above short-term support at $88.00.

We are leaving our stop loss unchanged at $85.75.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: October 11, 2015:
Back in the old days you used to buy software in a store, bring it home, and install it on to your personal computer. You paid for it. It was your copy to use forever - a perpetual license. Today the business model has changed, especially at ADBE. Nowadays you download the software from the internet to your computer and pay for it on a monthly, subscription basis.

If you're not familiar with ADBE here's a brief company description: "Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. Content built and optimized with Adobe products is everywhere you look - from websites, video games, and smartphones to televisions, tablets, and beyond. Adobe Creative Cloud software offers the most innovative tools for creating digital media, while Adobe Marketing Cloud delivers groundbreaking solutions for data-driven marketing. Our leadership in these two emerging categories, Digital Media and Digital Marketing, provides our customers with a real competitive advantage, positioning Adobe for continued growth well into the future. As one of the largest software companies in the world, Adobe achieved revenue of more than US$4 billion in 2013."

The company's Q1 earnings report was March 17th. Results were $0.44 a share, which was five cents better than expected. Revenues were up +10.9% to $1.11 billion, also above expectations. The company continues to see success with their subscription model and added 517,000 new creative cloud subscriptions, a +28% improvement from a year ago.

Q2 results came out on June 16th. ADBE beat the bottom line with earnings of $0.48 a share (3 cents above estimates). Revenues were up +8.8% to $1.16 billion, which was in-line with expectations. Management lowered their Q3 and 2015 guidance. This sparked a one-day sell-off that traders quickly used to buy the dip.

The company delivered a similar performance in its fiscal Q3. ADBE reported on September 17th. They beat estimates by four cents. Revenues improved +21% from a year ago to $1.22 billion, slightly ahead of estimates. Yet management lowered their Q4 estimate again. The stock gapped down the next day and then rallied.

This past week ADBE lowered their guidance yet again. This time they adjusted their fiscal 2016 numbers below estimates. What happened? Wall Street defends the stock and shares see a one-day decline. There seems to be a trend of investors buying bad news. It's probably because these are all short-term issues for ADBE and a good chunk of the problem is foreign currency headwinds. ADBE is still forecasting double-digit percentage gains for most of its businesses through 2018. Revenues growth is forecasted to grow +20% while earnings are forecasted to grow +30% over the next few years.

Technically ADBE is still in a long-term up trend in spite of some volatile moves in the last few months. Shares are only a few points away from new all-time highs. The peak is $87.25 set in August this year. Tonight I am suggesting we wait for ADBE to close in the $87.50-89.00 range and buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $77.85.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 19, 2015 - entry price on ADBE @ 88.15, option @ 6.80
symbol: ADBE170120C100 2017 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $6.50/6.80

12/11/15 shares garner several upgrades
12/10/15 ADBE reports Q4 earnings above estimates
11/29/15 new stop @ 85.75
11/22/15 new stop @ 84.75
11/08/15 new stop @ 81.75
10/19/15: Trade begins.
10/16/15: Triggered. ADBE @ $88.67, in the $87.50-89.00 entry range
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 85.75
Play Entered on: 10/19/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/11/15


Kimberly-Clark - KMB - close: 125.36

Comments:
01/17/16: KMB weathered the market's storm relatively well. Shares eked out a fractional gain for the week. The $124.00 area remains short-term support. However, if the market continues to sink we could see KMB drop to the next level of support near $122.50 and its 50-dma (currently $122.95).

Currently our stop is at $119.40. More conservative investors may want to raise their stop loss closer to $122 instead. No new positions at this time.

FYI: KMB has earnings coming up on January 25th.

Trade Description: December 6, 2015:
There are not many public companies that have been around as long as KMB. The company has a history going back more than 140 years. It looks like investors are still bullish on it with KMB trading near all-time highs.

KMB is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company, "Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and its well-known global brands are an indispensable part of life for people in more than 175 countries. Every day, nearly a quarter of the world's population trust K-C's brands and the solutions they provide to enhance their health, hygiene and well-being. With brands such as Kleenex, Scott, Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex and Depend, Kimberly-Clark holds No. 1 or No. 2 share positions in 80 countries."

The company has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates the last three quarters in a row. A stronger labor market in the U.S. combined with lower gasoline prices should be a tailwind for consumer spending in the globe's biggest economy. Meanwhile KMB is pursuing high-growth opportunities in emerging markets.

Technically the stock has been trading sideways in the $117.00-123.00 zone the last seven weeks. The recent bounce near the bottom of its trading range might suggest a bullish breakout soon. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $163 target. Tonight I am suggesting investors wait for KMB to close above $123.00 and then buy calls the next morning with an initial stop loss at $116.95.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 16, 2015 - entry price on KMB @ 124.75, option @ 7.50
symbol: KMB170120C130 2017 JAN $130 call - current bid/ask $7.00/7.70

12/27/15 new stop @ 119.40
12/16/15 Trade begins. KMB opens at $124.75
12/15/15 Triggered with KMB @ $124.44, above our $123.00 trigger
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 119.40
Play Entered on: 12/16/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/06/15


Pilgrim's Pride Corp - PPC - close: 21.85

Comments:
01/17/16: PPC is a new trade. We added it to the watch list last weekend. The plan was to buy calls if shares traded at $23.55 (intraday trigger). The stock broke out past short-term resistance on Monday (Jan. 11th) and hit our entry point. The rally continued and PPC was hitting five-month highs by Wednesday. Then shares reversed sharply on Thursday and Friday.

Friday's decline in PPC was pretty ugly (-5%) thanks to the combination of the market's widespread plunge and headlines that there is a new outbreak of avian flu. All the stocks of chicken producers were hammered on Friday as this story broke. Avian flu is responsible for the destruction of millions of birds last year as producers try to limit the damage by eliminating entire flocks to prevent the spread of the disease. Another outbreak could definitely be bad news. Fortunately shares of PPC found support right where it was supposed near its 50-dma and the $21.00-21.25 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. The bird-flu story just hit on Friday. Wait and see how PPC performs this week and we will re-evaluate next weekend.

Trade Description: January 10, 2016:
PPC is an aggressive, technical trade. Shares had a terrible 2015 but it looks like all the bad news is priced in.

PPC is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company, "For over six decades, Pilgrim's has produced healthy, high-quality food products that go into some of the world's finest recipes. Working with approximately over 4,000 family farms throughout the U.S. and Mexico, we are dedicated to providing these wholesome, high-quality products at a great value. As the second-largest chicken producer in the world Pilgrim's has the capacity to process more than 34 million birds per week for a total of more than over 7 billion pounds of live chicken annually. With corporate headquarters located in Greeley, Colorado, we have operations in 12 U.S. states as well as in Mexico and Puerto Rico. We are committed to the 35,000 plus team members who work with us to provide products to foodservice, retail and frozen entree customers. The company's primary distribution is through retailers, foodservice distributors and restaurants as well as through the export of chicken products to customers all over the world. Pilgrim's Pride is a part of the JBS USA family. JBS S.A., the world's largest protein company, owns 75.5% of our outstanding common stock."

PPC's most recent earnings report was October 28th. The company delivered their Q3 results and missed estimates. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $0.69 a share on revenues of $2.17 billion. PPC missed both estimates with earnings of $0.58 a share. Revenues fell -6.9% to $2.11 billion.

The industry as a whole has been suffering from the widespread avian flu last year that forced business owners to destroy millions of birds. PPC is also facing serious competition from a handful of competitors. Management is actively seeking ways to reduce their costs and make their business more competitive and their financial results more stable.

It looks like investors might believe the worst is behind it for PPC. Their Q3 earnings came out on October 28th and the stock plunged to new two-year lows on October 29th. That proved to be the low for the year. Investors have since been buying the dips. It is important to note that there is still a large camp of traders who are bearish on PPC. The most recent data listed short interest at 56% of the 59.0 million share float. That much bearishness can work against them. If PPC continues to rally the stock could see a short squeeze.

The intermediate trend is up and the point & figure chart is bullish with a $33 target. PPC managed to ignore the market's sell-off on Thursday and Friday last week. The stock actually broke through resistance on Friday. Tonight I am suggesting small bullish positions if PPC can trade at $23.55. This is an intraday trigger. We will start with a stop loss at $20.65.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 11, 2016 - entry price on PPC @ 23.55, option @ 3.00
symbol: PPC170120C25 2017 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $1.70/4.00

01/11/16 triggered at $23.55
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart of PPC:

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 20.65
Play Entered on: 01/11/16
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/10/16



Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 58.00

Comments:
01/17/16: I've got good news and bad news with our SBUX trade. The good news is that shares displayed relative strength and actually managed a gain for the week, outperforming the rest of the market. The bad news is that the midweek rally failed at resistance near $60.00 and its trend of lower highs. Odds are good SBUX will retest short-term support near $56.00 and its 200-dma soon.

No new positions at this time. SBUX has earnings coming up soon on January 21st.

Trade Description: September 20, 2015:
It's time to bring SBUX back to the LEAPStrader newsletter.

Here is an updated trade description on SBUX:

The world seems to have an insatiable appetite for coffee. Starbucks is more than happy to help fill that need. The first Starbucks opened in Seattle back in 1971. Today they are a global brand with locations in 66 countries. SBUX operates more than 21,000 retail stores with more than 300,000 workers.

A few years ago Business Insider published some facts on SBUX. The average SBUX customer stops by six times a month. The really loyal, top 20% of customers, come in 16 times a month. There are nearly 90,000 potential drink combinations at your local Starbucks. The company spends more money on healthcare for its employees than it does on coffee beans.

The company's earnings results were only mediocre most of 2014 year. You can see the results in SBUX's long-term chart below. After incredible gains in 2013 SBUX has essentially consolidated sideways in 2014. SBUX broke out of that sideways funk after it reported earnings in January 2015.

Five-Year Plan

In late 2014 SBUX announced their five-year plan to increase profitability. Here's an excerpt from a company press release:

"The seismic shift in consumer behavior underway presents tremendous opportunity for businesses the world over that are prepared and positioned to seize it," Schultz said (Howard Schultz is the Founder, Chairman, President, and CEO of Starbucks). "Over the next five years, Starbucks will continue to lean into this new era by innovating in transformational ways across coffee, tea and retail, elevating our customer and partner experiences, continuing to extend our leadership position in digital and mobile technologies, and unlocking new markets, channels and formats around the world. Investing in our coffee, our people and the communities we serve will remain at our core as we continue to redefine the role and responsibility of a public company in today's disruptive global consumer, economic and retail environments."

"Starbucks business, operations and growth trajectory around the world have never been stronger, and we are more confident than ever in our ability to continue to drive significant growth and meet our long term financial targets," said Troy Alstead, Starbucks chief operating officer. "We have more customers visiting more stores more frequently, both in the U.S. and around the world, than at any time in our history. And we expect both the number of customers visiting our stores and the amount they spend with us to accelerate in the years ahead. With a robust pipeline of mobile commerce innovations that will drive transactions and unprecedented speed of service, Starbucks is ushering in a new era of customer convenience. We believe the runway of opportunity for Starbucks inside and outside of our stores is both vast and unmatched by any other retailer on the planet."

The company believes they can grow revenues from $16 billion in FY2014 to almost $30 billion by FY2019. To do that they will expand deeper into regions like China, Japan, India, and Brazil. SBUX expects to nearly double its stores in China to over 3,000 locations in the next five years

They're also working hard on their mobile ordering technology to speed up the experience so customers don't have to wait in line so long at their busiest locations. This will also include a delivery service.

Part of the five-year plan is a new marketing campaign called Starbucks Evening experience. The company wants to be the "third place" between home and work. After 4:00 p.m. they will start offering alcohol, mainly wine and beer, in addition to new tapas-like smaller plates.

The company recently launched its first ever Starbucks Reserve Roastery and Tasting Room in Seattle, near their iconic first retail store. The new roastery is supposed to be the ultimate coffee lovers experience. CEO Schultz said they will eventually open up about 100 of these Starbucks Reserve locations.

SBUX continues to serve up strong earnings and revenue growth too. The fourth quarter of 2014 saw a huge jump in SBUX gift cards. One out of every seven Americans received a SBUX gift card. SBUX has been reporting very strong overseas sales growth and consistently healthy same-store sales growth globally.

Shares were very steady performers for much of 2015 and then during the market's correction in late August the stock just collapsed. It was shocking to see SBUX erase six month's worth of gains in just a few days. Of course it bounced back almost as fast. Tonight I want to use SBUX's volatility to our advantage. If the market declines over the next couple of weeks SBUX might be unfairly punished. The $50-52 area should be support. We want to use a buy-the-dip trigger at $52.00.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 12, 2015 - entry price on SBUX @ 60.35, option @ 3.91*
symbol: SBUX170120C70 2017 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $2.11/2.27

*adjusted cost for the short-term put (Nov. $57.50)

11/22/15 new stop loss @ 54.95
11/21/15 short-term November put has expired
10/29/15 SBUX reported Q4 earnings
10/28/15 buy the Nov. $57.50 put, cost $0.61
10/25/15 prepare to buy short-term puts on Wednesday (Oct. 28th)
10/12/15 Trade begins. SBUX opens @ $60.35
10/09/15 SBUX closed at $60.07, above our suggested entry of a close above $60.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 54.95
Play Entered on: 10/12/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/20/15


Constellation Brands - STZ - close: 142.75

Comments:
01/17/16: STZ has graduated from our watch list to our active play list. We added STZ to the watch list last weekend with a buy-the-dip trigger at $145.00. If I had know the market was going to crash again I would have been more aggressive and used a lower trigger price.

Friday's performance was interesting. STZ gapped down at the open like many stocks. Yet shares bounced near Thursday's intraday. The stock rallied only to fail near round-number resistance at $145.00. The bullish up trend remains intact.

Nimble traders may want to try and buy calls on a dip near support in the $140.00-141.00 area. I am suggesting less nimble investors wait for STZ to close above $145.25 before initiating new bullish positions.

Please note that I am adjusting our stop loss down to $138.25 so it's just below the January 4th low. The market has been volatile and I'd hate to get stopped out on just an intraday dip.

Trade Description: January 10, 2016:
New Year's was just a few days ago and many people were thinking hard about their new year's resolutions. For most folks it's a desire to be healthier. Instead of working hard for six-pack abs you may want to just stop by the store for a six pack of whatever STZ is selling. This company appears to be running at full speed and the stock shows it.

STZ is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company, "Constellation Brands is a leading international producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, New Zealand and Italy. In 2014, Constellation was one of the top performing stocks in the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index. Constellation is the number three beer company in the U.S. with high-end, iconic imported brands including Corona Extra, Corona Light, Modelo Especial, Negra Modelo and Pacifico. Constellation is also the world's leader in premium wine, selling great brands that people love including Robert Mondavi, Clos du Bois, Kim Crawford, Rex Goliath, Mark West, Franciscan Estate, Ruffino and Jackson-Triggs. The company's premium spirits brands include SVEDKA Vodka and Black Velvet Canadian Whisky... Based in Victor, N.Y., the company believes that industry leadership involves a commitment to brand-building, our trade partners, the environment, our investors and to consumers around the world who choose our products when celebrating big moments or enjoying quiet ones. Founded in 1945, Constellation has grown to become a significant player in the beverage alcohol industry with more than 100 brands in its portfolio, sales in approximately 100 countries, about 40 facilities and approximately 7,700 talented employees."

STZ has been killing it on the earnings front. They have beaten earnings the last three quarters in a row. Management has raised their guidance the last three quarters in a row. Their most recent earnings report was last week on January 7th. Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.30 a share on revenues of $1.62 billion. STZ beat estimates with a profit of $1.42 a shares. Revenues were up +6.4% to $1.64 billion. Strong beer sales has helped fuel double-digit shipment increases. The company announced they were building another brewery and raised their guidance again.

This bullish outlook sparked a couple of new price target upgrades ($174 and $185). The stock soared to new highs and broke through key resistance near the $145.00 level. The market's current decline, should it continue, will likely pull STZ back toward $145.00, which should be new support. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls on a dip at $145.00. We'll start with a stop loss at $139.45. More conservative investors may want to wait and see if STZ dips closer to the $140-142 area as an alternative entry point.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 11, 2016 - entry price on STZ @ 145.00, option @ 7.90
symbol: STZ170120C165 2017 JAN $165 call - current bid/ask $4.80/6.90

01/17/16 adjust stop loss lower from $139.45 to $138.25
01/11/16 triggered @ $145.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart of STZ:

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 138.25
Play Entered on: 01/11/16
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/10/16


Tyson Foods, Inc. - TSN - close $51.49

Comments:
01/17/16: TSN was on track to post a gain for the week at Thursday's close. That all changed on Friday when a news story broke about a flock of turkeys in Indiana catching the avian flu. All of the publicly traded poultry producers saw their stocks crushed on Friday. TSN actually held up better than its peers only losing -2.6%. TSN issued a press release stating that they do not have any poultry production in the affected area.

Shares reacted to the news story with a plunge toward round-number support at $50.00 and its simple 50-dma (about $50.30). TSN managed to trim its losses by the closing bell but the intraday action still looks bearish.

No new positions at this time.

FYI: TSN has earnings coming up on February 5th, before the opening bell.

Trade Description: October 25, 2015
TSN's beef business has struggled as a prolonged drought has hurt the cattle business. Yet TSN is seeing strong improvement in their chicken and prepared foods businesses.

TSN is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company, "Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), with headquarters in Springdale, Arkansas, is one of the world's largest food companies with leading brands such as Tyson®, Jimmy Dean®, Hillshire Farm ®, Sara Lee®, Ball Park®, Wright®, Aidells® and State Fair®. It's a recognized market leader in chicken, beef and pork as well as prepared foods, including bacon, breakfast sausage, turkey, lunchmeat, hot dogs, pizza crusts and toppings, tortillas and desserts. The company supplies retail and foodservice customers throughout the United States and approximately 130 countries.

Tyson Foods was founded in 1935 by John W. Tyson, whose family has continued to lead the business with his son, Don Tyson, guiding the company for many years and grandson, John H. Tyson, serving as the current chairman of the board of directors. The company currently has approximately 113,000 Team Members employed at more than 400 facilities and offices in the United States and around the world. Through its Core Values, Code of Conduct and Team Member Bill of Rights, Tyson Foods strives to operate with integrity and trust and is committed to creating value for its shareholders, customers and Team Members. The company also strives to be faith-friendly, provide a safe work environment and serve as stewards of the animals, land and environment entrusted to it."

After big gains in 2013 the stock ran out of steam. Shares have been consolidating sideways for more than a year and a half. That's probably because the earnings picture has been cloudy. The company has struggled to meet estimates and management has guided lower in recent quarters. That changed recently in September when TSN raised their 2016 guidance. The company should see +9% earnings growth in 2015 but earnings are expected to grow +21% in 2016.

Technically the bullish breakout in TSN this month is significant. The $44-45 zone has been major resistance for months. The current rally has generated a bullish buy signal on the point & figure chart, which is now forecasting at $63.00 target.

Tonight I am suggesting a little patience. Wait for a pullback in TSN. We are listing a buy-the-dip trigger to launch bullish positions at $45.50.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 26, 2015 - entry price on TSN @ 45.50, option @ 4.00
symbol: TSN170120C50 2017 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $4.10/7.50

12/21/15 Exit half of call position. Option bid $7.00 (+75%)
12/20/15 Plan on selling half of our call position on Monday, Dec. 21st to lock in a partial gain
12/13/15 new stop @ 49.45
12/06/15 new stop @ 45.75, readers may want to take some money off the table. Our option is already up +60%.
11/29/15 new stop loss @ 44.75
11/23/15 TSN reports earnings. The stock rallies
11/22/15 TSN could be volatile following its earnings report
10/26/15 triggered on a dip at $45.50
10/25/15 added to the watch list
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 49.45
Play Entered on: 10/26/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/25/15


CLOSED Plays


The Home Depot - HD - close: 119.23

Comments:
01/17/16: The market volatility was too much for our new HD trade. Last week we added HD to the watch list with a plan to buy calls on a dip near support at $120.00. Our trigger was hit on Thursday at $120.25. The $118.00-120.00 zone looked like significant support so we put our stop loss at $117.45. Sadly the market's plunge on Friday sparked a gap down in HD and shares opened at $117.12, closing our new play.

I would keep HD on your radar screen. A close above $121.50 might be an alternative entry point for bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 14, 2016 - entry price on HD @ 120.25, option @ 5.42
symbol: HD170120C135 2017 JAN $135 call - exit $4.45 (-17.9%)

01/15/16 stopped out on gap down @ 117.12, stop was $117.45
01/14/16 triggered @ $120.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 117.45
Play Entered on: 01/14/16
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/10/16


Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 50.99

Comments:
01/17/16: The market's plunge last week finally pushed MSFT below the top of its October 2015 gap higher. We were stopped out on Monday at $51.95.

MSFT was volatile midweek with a rally back toward $54.00, new resistance, and a plunge back to new two-month lows. Shares were testing technical support at the 100-dma on Friday. The $48.00 level should be support for MSFT. I would keep MSFT on your radar screen for a dip or bounce near $48 as another bullish entry point. We are re-adding to the watch list tonight with that strategy.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 08, 2015 - entry price on MSFT @ 55.05, option @ 3.20
symbol: MSFT170120C60 2017 JAN $60 call - exit $2.06 (-35.6%)

01/11/16 stopped out @ 51.95
12/08/15 triggered @ 55.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 51.95
Play Entered on: 12/08/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/06/15


Northrop Grumman - NOC - close: 184.21

Comments:
01/17/16: NOC is another victim of last week's market sell-off. Shares broke support on Thursday and hit our stop loss at $184.35. Traders bought the dip on Friday near the next level of support at $180.

Our play is closed but I would keep NOC on your radar screen. If the sell-off continues I'd look for an entry point in the $172-176 area. If NOC rebounds then you may want to wait for a new closing high.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 30, 2015 - entry price on NOC @ 191.40, option @ 6.30
symbol: NOC170120C220 2017 JAN $220 call - exit $4.30 (-31.7%)

01/14/16 stopped out @ $184.35
12/30/15 Trade begins. NOC opens at $191.40
12/29/15 NOC closed at $191.48, inside our $191.00-193.00 entry range
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 184.35
Play Entered on: 12/30/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/27/15


Orbital ATK, Inc. - OA - close: $85.66

Comments:
01/17/16: OA is another defense stock that was swept up in the market's sell-off late last week. Friday's market plunge pushed OA to new three-week lows. Shares broke down below its 50-dma and the $85.00 level. Our stop was hit at $84.75.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 23, 2015 - entry price on OA @ 82.00, option @ 6.60*
symbol: OA160520C85 2016 MAY $85 call - exit $6.80 (+3.0%)

*adjusted for cost of Nov. $75 put ($1.10)

01/15/16 stopped out
01/10/16 new stop @ 84.75
01/03/16 new stop @ 82.75
12/06/15 new stop @ 79.45
11/21/15 short-term put has expired ($0.00)
11/01/15 new stop @ 76.40
10/26/15 Cost on the Nov. $75 put was $1.10
10/26/15 Buy the November $75 put at the opening bell
10/25/15 new stop loss @ 72.45
10/23/15 Trade begins. OA opens at $82.00
10/22/15 triggered. OA closes at $81.33, in the $81.00-83.00 entry range.
10/18/15 Adjust the option strike from 2016 Feb. $85 call to the 2016 May $85 call
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 84.75
Play Entered on: 10/23/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/08/15


Pepisco, Inc. - PEP - close: 93.93

Comments:
01/17/16: The market's decline last week slowly pressured shares of PEP lower. By Wednesday it was breaking down under its 200-dma. Friday's market drop sparked a big gap down in PEP and shares opened at $93.95. That was below our stop loss at $94.75 and immediately closed our play.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 23, 2015 - entry price on PEP @ 103.32, option @ 4.00
symbol: PEP170120C110 2017 JAN $110 call - exit $1.44 (-64.0%)

01/15/16 stopped out on gap down at $93.95
11/08/15 new stop @ 94.75
10/23/15 Trade begins. PEP @ $103.32
10/22/15 Triggered. PEP @ $103.08, above our $101.00 trigger
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 94.75
Play Entered on: 10/23/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/18/15


Royal Caribbean Cruises - RCL - close: 82.92

Comments:
01/17/16: The bearish reversal in shares of RCL has been severe. The stock has just collapsed in the last two weeks. The last three days has been exceptionally harsh. RCL broke down below support on Wednesday and hit our stop loss at $89.00.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 28, 2015 - entry price on RCL @ 90.00, option @ 6.30
symbol: RCL170120C110 2017 JAN $110 call - exit $4.57 (-27.5%)

01/13/16 stopped out at $89.00
01/10/16 RCL was crushed last week with a -9% drop in profit taking
12/13/15 RCL endured the market's decline relatively well
11/22/15 Caution - RCL did not perform well last week
11/01/15 new stop @ $89.00
10/23/15 RCL delivered better than expected earnings and raised full year 2015 guidance.
10/11/15 new stop @ 84.75
09/28/15 triggered @ $90.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 89.00
Play Entered on: 09/28/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/20/15


Red Hat, Inc. - RHT - close: 73.57

Comments:
01/17/16: It was only a few weeks ago that RHT was hitting all-time highs following better than expected earnings news. Unfortunately the rally peaked in the last couple of days of 2015. The profit taking has been merciless. Last week saw RHT breakdown under key support and hit our stop loss at $76.90.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 30, 2015 - entry price on RHT @ 83.56, option @ 5.00
symbol: RHT170120C100 2017 JAN $100 call - exit $2.55 (-49.0%)

01/13/16 stopped out
01/10/16 adjust stop loss to $76.90
12/30/15 Trade begins. RHT opens at $83.56
12/29/15 Triggered. RHT closed at $83.53, inside our $83.00-84.00 entry range
12/17/15 RHT reports better than expected earnings
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 76.90
Play Entered on: 12/30/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/29/15


Smith & Wesson Holding - SWHC - close: 20.55

Comments:
01/17/16: Investors have been selling just about everything, especially their winners. The rush to lock in profits has been rough on shares of SWHC. The stock has retreated from multi-year highs near $26 back toward round-number support at $20.00. Our stop loss was hit last week at $20.90.

The fundamental story for SWHC has not changed. Odds are good this is a temporary, knee-jerk reaction lower to the market's widespread decline. I would definitely keep SWHC on your radar screen. If shares dip toward support in the $18-19 zone and bounce it could be another bullish entry point.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 25, 2015 - entry price on SWHC @ 18.70, option @ 2.90
symbol: SWHC170120C20 2017 JAN $20 call - exit $4.10 (+41.4%)

01/13/16 stopped out
01/10/16 new stop @ 20.90
12/13/15 new stop @ 19.75
12/08/15 SWHC beats earnings estimates and raised guidance
11/25/15 trade begins. SWHC opens at $18.70
11/24/15 triggered. SWHC closed @ $18.65, above our $18.40 trigger
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 20.90
Play Entered on: 11/25/15
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/08/15


The Travelers Companies, Inc. - TRV - close: 105.10

Comments:
01/17/16: It looked like our TRV might survive last week's storm in the stock market. The stock was consolidating sideways in the $106-108 zone for most of the week. Unfortunately the stock gapped down on Friday morning at $103.28. That was below our stop loss at $104.65 and immediately closed our play.

- Suggested Positions -
JAN 04, 2016 - entry price on TRV @ 110.50, option @ 5.20
symbol: TRV170120C120 2017 JAN $120 call - exit $2.80 (-46.2%)

01/15/16 stopped out on gap down at $103.28, stop was $104.65
01/04/16 triggered on buy-the-dip entry at $110.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart

Current Target: To Be Determined
Current Stop loss: 104.65
Play Entered on: 01/04/16
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/03/16