For the second consecutive week UPL came close to our trigger point but not close enough. UPL closed at a new all time high of $36.51 on Friday after rebounding from a dip to $32.70 on Monday. It appears we are not supposed to have that stock in our portfolio. I am going to raise the entry point but not chase it higher.
Amerada Hess and Sunoco are two other recurring headaches. I keep hoping both decline enough to provide a reasonable entry but they both continue to set new highs. SUN did decline to $118 but options were still outrageous. I figured it would take one more hit to $114 to flush the optimism but those hopes were dashed when it rallied +5.06 on Friday to $123.41 and a new high.
AHC was even worse with a rebound from $110.50 to $118.90 and a new all time high. Both of these stocks are high dollar and have high options for a reason. FYI, I am not going to add them at these levels but I do intend to trade them on the next dip.
As we near the potential fall demand season I hesitate to add anymore energy
plays unless we get another substantial dip. I am going to adjust the entries on
the remaining watch list entries with a trailing stop concept.
Current Watch List
UPL - $36.51 Ultra Petroleum
** Breakdown Target $34.00 **
Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. During the year ended December 31, 2004, it owns interests in approximately 166,974 gross (92,997 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 260 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 241 gross productive wells in this area and is operator of 41.5% of the 241 gross wells. Through Pendaries Petroleum Ltd., it is active in oil and gas exploration and development in Bohai Bay, China. The Company also owns interests in 15,518 gross (14,652 net) acres in Pennsylvania, as well as interest in approximately 720 gross (320 net) acres and interests in three productive wells in Texas.
BP - $65.95 BP, PLC
** Breakdown Target $64.00 **
BP PLC. produces & markets crude oil & petroleum products worldwide. It is involved in exploration and field development throughout the world and is engaged in the manufacture and sale of petroleum-based chemical products. For the 3 months ended 3/31/05, revenues rose 15% to $81.01B. Net income rose 34% to $6.60B. Results reflect increased sales from all the business segments, higher marketing & refining margins and inventory gains
TLM $41.87 Talisman Energy
** Breakout target - None **
Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman) is an independent international upstream oil and gas company whose main business activities include exploration, development, production, transporting and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Company's operations, during the year ended December 31, 2004, were conducted principally in four geographic segments: North America, the North Sea, Southeast Asia and Algeria. The Trinidad Angostura project began production in January 2005. Exploration is being advanced in other areas outside the principal geographic segments, including Alaska, Colombia, Qatar and Peru. During 2004, total production averaged 438 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and the Company exited the year producing 452 mboe/d in December. In 2004, the Company drilled 641 successful wells.