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Yes, UPL at $38 after missing our entry point two weeks ago. Dang it! I guess it is better to miss a strong one than catch a weak one like KWK last week. At least the loss on UPL is only lost gain rather than actual lost money.

As we enter the post earnings swoon I am going to keep the watch list very skinny. I am removing BP based on its recent comments and volatility. I am adding HP, SWN and SUN with breakdown targets only. I am not interested in buying the top at this point in the cycle.

SUN is a unique situation. They are currently $125 but have a 2:1 split scheduled for Monday. They also have earnings due out August 3rd on Wednesday. I want to take a chance and buy the $65 LEAP when it begins trading. I can't find it on any split calendar but the Sunoco press release specifically says it will begin trading at the new price on Monday.

http://www.sunocoinc.com/shareholder/divsplitdistf.htm

When it starts trading, BUY IT!
 

Dropped Entries
BP $65.99 BP, PLC

New Watch List Entries
HP
$57.10
Helmerich Payne
SWN $55.08 Southwestern Energy
SUN $125.60 Sunoco, Inc. (2:1 split scheduled for Monday)

Current Watch List

UPL - $37.87 Ultra Petroleum

** Breakdown Target $36.50 **
** Breakout Target - none **

Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. During the year ended December 31, 2004, it owns interests in approximately 166,974 gross (92,997 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 260 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 241 gross productive wells in this area and is operator of 41.5% of the 241 gross wells. Through Pendaries Petroleum Ltd., it is active in oil and gas exploration and development in Bohai Bay, China. The Company also owns interests in 15,518 gross (14,652 net) acres in Pennsylvania, as well as interest in approximately 720 gross (320 net) acres and interests in three productive wells in Texas.

Breakdown Target
BUY 2007 $37.50 LEAP Call OZH-AU

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TLM $43.70 Talisman Energy

** Breakout target - None **
** Breakdown target $41.50 **

Company info:

Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman) is an independent international upstream oil and gas company whose main business activities include exploration, development, production, transporting and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Company's operations, during the year ended December 31, 2004, were conducted principally in four geographic segments: North America, the North Sea, Southeast Asia and Algeria. The Trinidad Angostura project began production in January 2005. Exploration is being advanced in other areas outside the principal geographic segments, including Alaska, Colombia, Qatar and Peru. During 2004, total production averaged 438 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and the Company exited the year producing 452 mboe/d in December. In 2004, the Company drilled 641 successful wells.

Breakdown Target
BUY Jan 2006 $40 CALL TLM-AH

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HP - $57.10 Helmerich Payne

** Breakdown Target $54.00 **

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. is primarily engaged in contract drilling of oil and gas wells for others. It is also engaged in the ownership, development and operation of commercial real estate. The Company is organized into two separate operating entities: contract drilling and real estate. The Company's contract drilling business is composed of three business segments: United States land drilling, United States offshore platform drilling and international drilling. The Company's United States land drilling is conducted primarily in Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, and Louisiana, and offshore from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and California. The Company also operated in eight international locations during the fiscal year ended September 30, 2004: Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea, Chad and Hungary. In addition, the Company is providing drilling consulting services for one customer in Russia. Its real estate investments are located in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Breakdown Target
BUY JAN 2006 $60 CALL HP-CL currently $4.70
(no leaps)

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SUN - $125.60 Sunoco Inc. (2:1 Split scheduled for Monday)

Sunoco, Inc. operates through its subsidiaries as a petroleum refiner and marketer, and chemicals manufacturer with interests in logistics and cokemaking. Sunoco's petroleum refining and marketing operations include the manufacturing and marketing of a range of petroleum products, including fuels, lubricants and some petrochemicals. Sunoco's chemical operations consist of the manufacturing, distribution and marketing of commodity and intermediate petrochemicals. The Company's operations are organized into five business segments: refining and supply, retail marketing, chemicals, logistics and coke.

SUN has scheduled a 2:1 split as of Monday August 1st. Once it trades at the new price I want to enter the LEAP. Premiums should drop dramatically and new players enticed by the lower share price should appear.

BUY the $65 2007 LEAP when it begins trading on Monday.

No symbol yet. Look for the new symbol on CBOE on Monday.

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SWN - $55.08 Southwestern Energy

** Breakdown Target $53.50 **

Southwestern Energy Company is an integrated energy company primarily focused on natural gas. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, the Company is engaged in natural gas and oil exploration and production business. It operates principally in three segments: exploration and production, natural gas distribution and marketing. The Company's exploration and production activities are concentrated in Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma. It's wholly owned subsidiary, Arkansas Western Gas Company, referred to as Arkansas Western, operates integrated natural gas distribution systems in northern Arkansas. The Company provides marketing services in each of its core areas of operation through its gas-marketing subsidiary, Southwestern Energy Services Company.

Breakdown Target
BUY 2006 MARCH $60 CALL SWN-CL currently $6.40
 

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