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The historical crude cycle is slowly heading into a September climax baring any major hurricane damage. It is time to take our last shot at adding any new energy plays.

I am putting a breakout target of $38.50 on UPL as it refuses to go down and appears to be coiling for a breakout. UPL is heavy into natural gas and gas broke out to a new high on Friday.

I added NOV after hearing about the strength of heir business on CNBC. HOV controls 50% of the market for construction of drilling rigs. With the BHI rig count up +178 for the month and +378 year over year, drilling rigs are in very short supply. NOV announced very strong earnings on Friday and then sold off on the news. If it recovers to a new high I want to own it.

Dropped Entries


New Watch List Entries
National Oilwell Varco

Current Watch List

UPL - $38.34 Ultra Petroleum

** Breakdown Target $36.50 **
** Breakout Target $38.75 **

Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. During the year ended December 31, 2004, it owns interests in approximately 166,974 gross (92,997 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 260 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 241 gross productive wells in this area and is operator of 41.5% of the 241 gross wells. Through Pendaries Petroleum Ltd., it is active in oil and gas exploration and development in Bohai Bay, China. The Company also owns interests in 15,518 gross (14,652 net) acres in Pennsylvania, as well as interest in approximately 720 gross (320 net) acres and interests in three productive wells in Texas.

Breakdown Target
BUY 2007 $37.50 LEAP Call OZH-AU

Breakout Target
BUY 2007 $40.00 LEAP Call OZH-AH


TLM $46.44 Talisman Energy

** Breakout target - None **
** Breakdown target $43.50 **

Company info:

Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman) is an independent international upstream oil and gas company whose main business activities include exploration, development, production, transporting and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Company's operations, during the year ended December 31, 2004, were conducted principally in four geographic segments: North America, the North Sea, Southeast Asia and Algeria. The Trinidad Angostura project began production in January 2005. Exploration is being advanced in other areas outside the principal geographic segments, including Alaska, Colombia, Qatar and Peru. During 2004, total production averaged 438 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and the Company exited the year producing 452 mboe/d in December. In 2004, the Company drilled 641 successful wells.

Breakdown Target
BUY Jan 2006 $45 CALL TLM-AI


HP - $57.55 Helmerich Payne

** Breakdown Target $54.00 **

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. is primarily engaged in contract drilling of oil and gas wells for others. It is also engaged in the ownership, development and operation of commercial real estate. The Company is organized into two separate operating entities: contract drilling and real estate. The Company's contract drilling business is composed of three business segments: United States land drilling, United States offshore platform drilling and international drilling. The Company's United States land drilling is conducted primarily in Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, and Louisiana, and offshore from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and California. The Company also operated in eight international locations during the fiscal year ended September 30, 2004: Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea, Chad and Hungary. In addition, the Company is providing drilling consulting services for one customer in Russia. Its real estate investments are located in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Breakdown Target
BUY JAN 2006 $60 CALL HP-CL currently $4.70
(no leaps)


NOV - $57.44 National Oilwell Varco

** Breakdown Target $54.00 **
** Breakout Target $59.50 **

National-Oilwell Varco Inc., formerly National-Oilwell, Inc. designs, manufactures and sells systems, components and products used in oil and gas drilling and production, as well as distributes products and provides services to the exploration and production segment of the oil and gas industry. The Company's Products and Technology segment designs and manufactures complete land drilling and workover rigs, as well as drilling-related systems on offshore rigs. Non-capital revenue sources within its Products and Technology segment include drilling motors and specialized downhole tools that are sold or rented, spare parts and service on the large installed base of its equipment, expendable parts for mud pumps and other equipment and smaller downhole, progressive cavity and transfer pumps. Company's Distribution Services segment provides maintenance, repair and operating supplies and spare parts to drill site and production locations throughout North America and to offshore contractors.

Breakdown Target
BUY JAN 2006 $60 CALL NOV-BL currently $5.10
(no leaps)

Breakdown Target
BUY JAN 2006 $60 CALL NOV-BL currently $5.10 (same)

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