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Being Patient

I am impatiently waiting for this January rally to implode or at least for oil prices to implode so we can start targeting some oil positions for March. The various political tensions I outlined in the commentary above seem never ending and while oil prices are not going higher they are not going lower either.

Entering positions in non-energy sectors ahead of earnings could be catastrophic. We have never held over earnings at Option Investor and I really do not want to start now.

I don't want to hold over energy earnings either unless I have a substantial cushion. Energy earnings for Q4 are expected to be in the +46% range despite the price fluctuations we experienced. I am wondering if we could see something less than that given the various factors at work. That could produce a negative surprise if everyone is expecting energy to pull the S&P out of the fire once again.

Unfortunately, January is simply not a good time to be going long anything and we are already short the transports and housing sector. I know everyone gets bored with no new plays on the watch list but putting a play on the list with a target $15 away from the current price is also a stretch of the imagination. I have a couple like that but I don't want to embarrass myself putting them on the list until they get a little closer to reality.

Keep the faith and lets see how the first week of earnings plays out.
 

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