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Back Up The Truck

Well, maybe fill it with gas and sweep out the truck because we are not quite ready to fill it up. The drop in oil prices produced some appealing opportunities at $64 but I am still expecting a further drop to something in the $60 or very high $50 range. Since I am not psychic I don't want to bet the farm on the possibility of a continued drop and be 100% wrong. To prevent this I am going to load up the watch list with opportunities and put breakout triggers on some and breakdown triggers on all.

I watch about 100 energy stocks on a daily basis and about half of that list failed to show any life at Friday's close when oil rallied from $64 to $65.37 in the last hour. That was a substantial bounce and only a few energy stocks followed it higher.

I believe this means there is still some profit taking ahead and I love bargain shopping.

I am adding several refiners, HOC, GI and SUN due to the Valero comment that they could make another acquisition. One of them could be that acquisition. I was going to add Tesoro but further research showed that they bought refinery assets and retail locations from Valero as late as 2002 so they are probably not a target. The TSO CEO said last week that Tesoro was in acquisition mode itself but that targets were pricey and scarce.

I am raising the targets on the drillers after an upgrade on Friday and a new South American deal sent DO and RIG flying higher after being right on the edge of the hoped for breakdown.

Don't be alarmed about the number of entries on the watch list because we will not hit them all. As time passes I will prune it but I want to get all the major targets lined up in case we do get that sub $60 dip on oil.

ACS did not budge all week and remains over $62. Because of the crack in oil prices I am removing it from the list.
 

Dropped Entries
ACS $63.27 Computer Services

New Watch List Entries

Current Watch List

DO - $82.17 - Diamond Offshore Drilling

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. engages principally in the contract drilling of offshore oil and gas wells. As of December 31, 2004, the Company had a fleet of 45 offshore rigs consisting of 30 semisubmersibles, 14 jack-ups and one drillship. Diamond offers a range of services worldwide in various markets, including the deep water, harsh environment, conventional semisubmersible and the jack-up market. Its principal markets for its offshore contract drilling services are the Gulf of Mexico, including the United States and offshore Mexico, Europe, principally the United Kingdom and Norway, South America, Africa and Australia/Southeast Asia. From time to time, its fleet operates in various other markets worldwide. Diamond provides offshore drilling services to a customer base that includes private and independent oil and gas companies and government-owned oil companies.

Breakdown target $75.00
Buy 2007 $80 LEAP VCT-AP

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RIG - $80.65 - Transocean Inc

Transocean Inc., formerly known as Sonat Offshore Drilling Inc., is an international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells, related equipment and work crews, primarily on a dayrate basis, to drill oil and gas wells. The Company operates with a particular focus on deepwater and harsh environment drilling services. The Company also provides additional services, including management of third-party well service activities. The Company's Transocean drilling segment consists of drillships, semisubmersibles, jackups and other drilling rigs.

Breakdown target $75.00
Buy 2007 $80 LEAP VOI-AP

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COP - $62.48 - Conoco Phillips

ConocoPhillips is an integrated energy company. The Company's business is organized into six operating segments. The Exploration and Production segment primarily explores for, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids on a worldwide basis. The Midstream segment gathers and processes natural gas produced by ConocoPhillips and others, and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids. The Refining and Marketing segment purchases, refines, markets and transports crude oil and petroleum products. The LUKOIL Investment segment consists of the Company's equity investment in LUKOIL, an international, integrated oil and gas company. The Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. The Emerging Businesses segment encompasses the development of new businesses, including new technologies related to natural gas conversion into clean fuels and related products, technology solutions, power generation and emerging technologies.

Breakdown target $60.00
Buy 2007 $65 LEAP OJP-AM

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SU - $78.31 - Suncor Energy

Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor), formerly Suncor Inc., is a Canadian integrated energy company that explores for, acquires, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas, transports and refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products. Periodically, the Company also markets third-party petroleum products. Suncor also carries on energy trading activities focused principally on buying and selling futures contracts and other derivative instruments based on the commodities the Company produces. The Company has four principal operating business units: Oil Sands; Natural Gas; Energy Marketing and Refining, Canada, and Refining and Marketing, United States of America.

Breakdown target $72.00
Buy 2007 $80 LEAP OYX-AP

Breakout target $80.50
But 2007 $85 LEAP OYX-AQ

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CCJ - $69.97 - Cameco

This is my best single play in the list. Cameco just announced record earnings and raised their forecast for 2006 and beyond. They projected a +40% rise in revenue and a rise in margin from 23% to 28% for 2006. At the same time they announced a 2:1 split for Feb-23rd on the NYSE. They also raised the dividend to 32 cents from 24 cents payable on April 13th.

They also announced they were buying Zircatec for $108 million. Zircatec is a maker of nuclear fuel bundles for Canadian designed heavy water reactors. They said the acquisition would moderately boost 2006 earnings assuming no material changes in operations.

The combination of events including the purchase of Zircatec caused the stock to plunge from its all time high of $82.15 on Feb-1st to close at $69.97 on Friday Feb-3rd.

This is an extraordinary buying opportunity and I would be all over it except for the lack of any bounce from that $70 level. I am desperately hoping there is more selling to come. Ideally we could just wait for the split to enter the position but with all the talk about nuclear plants we could see a sharp jump at any time. CCJ has been very volatile recently with big intraday moves.

DO NOT LET THIS ONE GET AWAY. Be willing to pay more to get it if you have to! I would double up if we get a dip to support at $60.

Company Info:

Cameco Corporation is engaged in exploring, developing, mining and milling uranium ore to produce uranium concentrates. The Company is also a commercial converter of uranium concentrates (U3O8) to UF6 (uranium hexafluoride), as well as a supplier of services to convert uranium concentrates to UO2 (uranium dioxide). Cameco, through its subsidiaries, has a 31.6% limited partnership interest in Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates six nuclear reactors in Ontario, Canada. Cameco also owns 53% of Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX: CG), a growth-oriented gold mining and exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of gold properties in Central Asia, the former Soviet Union and other emerging markets.

Breakout target $72.50
Buy 2007 $80 LEAP ZBK-AP 1/2 position

Breakdown target $67.00
Buy 2007 $80 LEAP ZBK-AP 1/2 position

Breakdown target $60.00
Buy 2007 $80 LEAP ZBK-AP ADD another full position


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TS - $151.72 - Tenaris

Tenaris S.A. is a global manufacturer of seamless steel pipes for the oil and gas industry and a global supplier of seamless steel pipes for process and power plants and for industrial and automotive applications. It is also a regional supplier of welded steel pipes for oil and gas pipelines in South America. Tenaris focus on providing end-user customers a service that integrates manufacturing, procurement, distribution and on-time delivery of products throughout the world. Incorporated in Luxembourg, the Company has manufacturing facilities in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Romania and Venezuela. It also has a proprietary global service and distribution network in over 20 countries. Tenaris' customers include many of the world's major oil and gas companies, as well as a large number of engineering and industrial companies.


Breakdown target $135.00
Buy Sept $150 Call TSW-IJ 1/2 position

This is a wild card shot. If we do get the drop I would love to buy the option but the options are expensive!

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PBR - $88.63 - Petro Brasileiro

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (Petrobras) is a mixed-capital enterprise of which a majority of voting capital must be owned by the Brazilian Government. The Company is engaged in a range of oil and gas activities, which include segments such as exploration and production, refining, transportation and marketing, distribution, natural gas and power, international, and corporate. Besides the dominant market position in Brazil, Petrobras has oil and gas activities in international locations, with significant international operations in Latin America, the Gulf of Mexico and West of Africa. During the year ended December 31, 2004, the Company had estimated proved developed and undeveloped crude oil and natural gas reserves of approximately 11.82 billion barrels of oil equivalent in Brazil and other countries.

Breakdown target $80.00
Buy 2007 $90 LEAP Call VDW-AR

Breakout target $93.50
Buy 2007 $100 LEAP Call VDW-AT

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HAL - $77.37 - Halliburton

Halliburton is planning on spinning off KBR, its construction and engineering unit. This should produce a significant bounce in HAL stock. (KBR stands foe Kellogg, Brown and Root)

Halliburton Company is an oilfield services company, and a provider of engineering and construction services. The Company provides services, products, maintenance, engineering and construction to energy, industrial and governmental customers. Its six business segments are Production Optimization, Fluid Systems, Drilling and Formation Evaluation, Digital and Consulting Solutions, collectively the Energy Services Group, and Government and Infrastructure, and Energy and Chemicals, collectively known as KBR. In August 2004, the Company sold its surface well testing and sub-sea test tree operations to Power Well Service Holdings, LLC. In January 2005, the Company emerged out of the chapter 11 proceedings and can operate the businesses without Bankruptcy Court supervision.

Breakdown target $72.00
Buy 2007 $80 LEAP Call VHW-AP

Breakout target $79.00
Buy 2007 $85 LEAP Call VHW-AQ

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KMG - $104.39 - Kerr Mcgee

Kerr-McGee Corporation (Kerr-McGee) is an energy and inorganic chemical holding company whose consolidated subsidiaries, joint ventures and other affiliates (together, affiliates) have operations throughout the world. The Company's core businesses include exploration and production, and chemicals. Kerr-McGee's oil and gas exploration and production areas are onshore in the United States, in the Gulf of Mexico, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea and China. In addition, the Company has exploration programs in Alaska, Brazil, Morocco, Bahamas and Benin. Kerr-McGee affiliates engaged in chemical businesses produce and market inorganic industrial chemicals, lithium-metal-polymer batteries and heavy minerals. On June 25, 2004, the Company completed a merger with Westport Resources Corporation. On March 8, 2005, the Company annonced its decision to proceed with the proposal to pursue alternatives for the separation of the chemical business, including a spinoff or sale.


Breakdown target $96.00
Buy 2007 $110 LEAP Call OGM-AB

Breakout target $107.00
Buy 2007 $115 LEAP Call OGM-AC

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UPL - $66.50 - Ultra Petroleum

Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. During the year ended December 31, 2004, it owns interests in approximately 166,974 gross (92,997 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 260 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 241 gross productive wells in this area and is operator of 41.5% of the 241 gross wells. Through Pendaries Petroleum Ltd., it is active in oil and gas exploration and development in Bohai Bay, China. The Company also owns interests in 15,518 gross (14,652 net) acres in Pennsylvania, as well as interest in approximately 720 gross (320 net) acres and interests in three productive wells in Texas.


Breakdown target $62.00
Buy 2007 $70 LEAP Call OZH-AN

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HOC - $68.90 - Holly Corp

Holly Corporation (Holly) is an independent petroleum refiner that produces and distributes high-value light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel. As of December 31, 2004, the Company, through its principal subsidiaries, operated and managed three refineries located in Artesia and Lovington, New Mexico (operated as one refinery); Woods Cross, Utah (Woods Cross refinery), and Great Falls, Montana (Montana Refinery). Holly also holds ownership interests in Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (HEP), a limited-liability company that owns and operates pipeline and terminally ailing assets, as well as 70% interest in the Rio Grande Pipeline Company (Rio Grande). Rio Grande owns a 249-mile pipeline that transports liquid petroleum gases (LPGs) from West Texas to the Texas/Mexico border. During the year ended December 31, 2004, gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel (excluding volumes purchased for resale) represented 59%, 26% and 5%, respectively, of the refinery's sales volumes.

Breakdown target $64.00
Buy Sept $70 Call HOC-IN

Breakout target $71.00
Buy Sept $75 Call HOC-IO

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GI - $67.03 - Giant Industries

Giant Industries, Inc., through its subsidiary Giant Industries Arizona, Inc. and other subsidiaries, refines and sells petroleum products on the East Coast primarily in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina and in the Southwest primarily in New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado, with a concentration in the Four Corners area where these states meet. Phoenix Fuel Co., Inc., another subsidiary, distributes commercial wholesale petroleum products primarily in Arizona. The Company has three business units: retail group, which operates service stations including convenience stores or kiosks; Phoenix Fuel, a commercial wholesale petroleum products distributor selling diesel fuel, gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, motor oil, hydraulic oil, gear oil, cutting oil, grease and various chemicals and solvents, and refining group, which operates the Company's Ciniza and Bloomfield refineries in the Four Corners area of New Mexico and the Yorktown refinery in Virginia.

Breakdown target $60.00
Buy Sept $65 Call GI-IM

Breakout target $71.50
Buy Sept $75 Call GI-IO
 

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