Current Watch List
UPL - Ultra Petroleum
$52.25, we got close and gas prices are still falling. Maintain the entry target.
This is an unbelievable opportunity in progress. For some reason UPL has fallen out of favor even though production is rising and they are the lowest cost producer in North America. Cash flow in Q1 increased +15% on a +42% increase in production to record levels. They closed 2007 with more than 10 TCF of gas reserves in Wyoming and Utah. They have a 17 year drilling program on those assets alone. They raised guidance for 2007 to 114 BCFE for a +24% increase over 2006. Estimates for 2008 are 135 BCFE and 160 BCFE for 2009. They added $250 million to a $1 billion share repurchase agreement on April 30th. This company is printing money but suddenly the stock has fallen out of favor with investors. I would love to be a buyer at $50. Falling gas prices may give us a chance.
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (Ultra) is an oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are primarily in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. As of December 31, 2006, Ultra owned interests in approximately 147,917 gross (79,566 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 230 square miles. The Company owns working interests in approximately 464 gross producing wells in this area and is an operator of 50% of the 464 gross wells. During the year ended December 31, 2006, domestic production was approximately 89.5% of the Company's total oil and natural gas production on a thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (Mcfe) basis and 99% of the Company's estimated net proved reserves were domestic on a Mcfe basis.
Breakdown target: $50
Buy Jan 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL
BHP - BHP Billiton
We were stopped on BHP for a nice profit and I want to re-enter the position using a longer LEAP on any further price declines.
BHP Billiton Limited is a diversified resources group. The Company has seven business units, or Customer Sector Groups: Petroleum, which explores for, produces, processes and markets hydrocarbons, including oil, gas and liquefied natural gas; Aluminium, which explores for and mines bauxite, and processes and markets aluminium and alumina; Base Metals, which explores for, mines, processes and markets copper, silver, zinc, lead, uranium and copper by-products, including gold and molybdenum; Carbon Steel Materials, which explores for, mines, processes and markets metallurgical coal, iron ore and manganese used in the production of carbon steel; Diamonds and Specialty Products, which explores for and mines diamonds and titanium minerals; Energy Coal, which explores for, mines, processes and markets energy coal for use in electricity generation, and Stainless Steel Materials, which explores for, mines, processes and markets nickel, which is used in the production of stainless steel.
Breakdown target: $55
Buy 2010 $70 LEAP Call LPH-AN
JEC - Jacobs Engineering Group
Jacobs has been on a very strong growth path and the recent market weakness has knocked it back into range. It has oil and gas exposure but it not an oil and gas company.
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. is a professional services firm that focuses on providing a range of technical, professional and construction services. It provides project services, which include engineering, design, architectural, and similar services; process, scientific, and systems consulting services; operations and maintenance services, and construction services, which include direct-hire construction and construction management services. It concentrates its services on selected industry groups and markets, including oil and gas exploration, production and refining; programs for various federal governments; pharmaceuticals and biotechnology; chemicals and polymers; buildings, which includes projects in the fields of healthcare and education, as well as civic, governmental and other buildings; infrastructure and technology and manufacturing. In April 2006, its Canadian subsidiary acquired Techna-West Engineering Limited. In October 2006, it acquired W.H. Linder & Associates, Inc.
Breakdown target: $55
Buy JAN 2008 $60 Call JEC-AL
NOV - National Oilwell Varco
This may be wishful thinking but a major drop in crude prices over the next several months could bring NOV back into range once again.
National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV) is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. The Company operates in three segments: Rig Technology, Petroleum Services & Supplies, and Distribution Services. The Rig Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells and services complete systems for the drilling, completion and servicing of oil and gas wells. The Petroleum Services & Supplies segment provides a variety of consumable goods and services used to drill, complete, remediate and workover oil and gas wells, service pipelines, flowlines and other oilfield tubular goods. The Distribution Services segment provides maintenance, repair and operating supplies, and spare parts. In March 2006, NOV acquired Soil Recovery A/S. In November 2006, it acquired Rolligon Ltd. In December 2006, it acquired 87% of NQL Energy Services Inc.
Breakdown target: $100
BUY FEB $110 Calls NOV-BB
VLO - Valero Energy
Looking to buy Valero cheap on the fall dip.
Valero Energy Corporation owns and operates 18 refineries located in the United States, Canada and Aruba that produce refined products, such as reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending, gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), CARB diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates (liquid hydrocarbon compounds containing oxygen). It also produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals and other refined products. It markets branded and unbranded refined products on a wholesale basis in the United States and Canada through a bulk and rack marketing network. It sells refined products through a network of approximately 5,800 retail and wholesale branded outlets in the United States, Canada and Aruba. During the year ended December 31, 2006, it sold all of its ownership interest in Valero GP Holdings, LLC. In July 2007, the Company sold its Lima, Ohio refinery to Husky Energy Inc.
Breakdown target: $55
BUY 2009 $70 LEAP Call VHB-AN (*** LEAP MAY CHANGE ***)
COP - Conoco Phillips
I hesitate to add Conoco because of its Russian LUKOIL exposure but the company is doing everything else right. Now that it is out of Venezuela it should be more aggressive with other opportunities.
ConocoPhillips (ConocoPhillips) is an international, integrated energy company. The Company's business is organized into six segments. Exploration and Production segment primarily explores for, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids on a worldwide basis. Midstream segment gathers, processes and markets natural gas produced by ConocoPhillips and others, and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids, primarily in the United States and Trinidad. Refining and Marketing segment purchases, refines, markets and transports crude oil and petroleum products, mainly in the United States, Europe and Asia. LUKOIL Investment segment consists of its equity investment in the ordinary shares of OAO LUKOIL (LUKOIL). The Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. Emerging Businesses segment includes the development of new technologies and businesses outside the Company's normal scope of operations.
Breakdown target: $70
Buy 2010 $80 LEAP Call YRO-AP