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Dropped Entries

None


New Watch List Entries
AAPL
Apple Computer
FLS Flowserv
PCP Precision Cost Parts
Other companies I seriously considered but passed on:
PCX, TEX, WLT, SPW, FCL, EMN, COG, ATI

Current Watch List

HP - Helmerich & Payne

Company Info:

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. is primarily engaged in contract drilling of oil and gas wells for others. The contract drilling business accounts for almost all of the Company's operating revenues. It is also engaged in the ownership, development and operation of commercial real estate. It is organized into two separate operating entities: contract drilling and real estate. The Company's contract drilling business consists of three business segments: U.S. land drilling, offshore platform drilling and international drilling. The Company's U.S. land drilling is conducted primarily in Oklahoma, California, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, New Mexico, and North Dakota, and offshore from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, California, Trinidad and Equatorial Guinea. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2007, the Company's international land segment operated in seven international locations: Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia, Tunisia and Chile.

Breakout trigger: dropped

Breakdown trigger: $50

Buy 2010 $60 LEAP Call LQB-AL

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HES - Hess Corp

Company Info:

Hess Corporation (Hess) is a global integrated energy company that operates in two segments: Exploration and Production (E&P) and Marketing and Refining (M&R). The E&P segment explores for, develops, produces, purchases, transports and sells crude oil and natural gas. These exploration and production activities take place principally in Algeria, Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Denmark, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Indonesia, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Russia, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States. The M&R segment manufactures, purchases, transports, trades and markets refined petroleum products, natural gas and electricity. As of December 31, 2007, the Company owned a 50% interest in a refinery joint venture in the United States Virgin Islands, and another refining facility, terminals and retail gasoline stations located on the East Coast of the United States.

Breakdown trigger: $90 ** New trigger **

Buy 2010 $100 LEAP Call WHS-AT
Sell 2010 $90 LEAP Put WHS-MR

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VLO - Valero

Company Info:

Valero Energy Corporation (Valero) owns and operates 17 refineries located in the United States, Canada and Aruba that produce conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants and other refined products. The Companys principal products include conventional and California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasolines, reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB), ultra-low-sulfur diesel, and oxygenates and other gasoline blendstocks. Valero also produces a substantial slate of middle distillates, jet fuel, and petrochemicals, in addition to lube oils and asphalt. Valero markets branded and unbranded refined products on a wholesale basis in the United States and Canada through a bulk and rack marketing network. It also sells refined products through a network of approximately 5,800 retail and wholesale branded outlets. Effective July 1, 2007, the Company completed the sale of the Lima, Ohio refinery to Husky Energy Inc.

Breakdown trigger: $32 *** New trigger ***

Buy 2010 $40 LEAP Call YPY-AH

Breakout trigger: dropped

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USO - US Oil Fund

I am targeting worst case here with crude falling to $100. That would take the USO to $80 and very strong support. This is a hail Mary play where we could do very good if triggered but odds of getting triggered are slim.

Company Info:

United States Oil Fund, LP (USOF) is a commodity pool that issues limited partnership interests or units that may be purchased and sold on the American Stock Exchange (the AMEX). The Company invests in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil and other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), International Currency Exchange (ICE) Futures or other United States and foreign exchanges (collectively, Oil Futures Contracts). It holds interests in other oil-related investments such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward oil contracts, and oil-based over-the-counter transactions. As of December 31, 2007, USOF held 4,754 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX and 300 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures. The Company operates under full management control of its sole General Partner, Victoria Bay Asset Management, LLC (the General Partner).

I am not using LEAPS because I view this as a short-term trade.

Breakdown trigger: $82

Buy DEC $90 Call UNA-AL

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AAPL - Apple Computer

Despite my comments in the RIMM play description I think Apple is primed to explode when Best Buy begins selling the iPhone. This is a great entry into the mass market and 986 Best Buy stores and it will all happen in about three weeks.

Company Info:

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, portable digital music players, and mobile communication devices and sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions. The Company sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, and third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, the Company sells a variety of third-party Macintosh (Mac), iPod and iPhone compatible products, including application software, printers, storage devices, speakers, headphones, and various other accessories and peripherals through its online and retail stores. The Company sells to education, consumer, creative professional, business and government customers.

I am using shorter-term calls rather than LEAPS because of the extreme premium for LEAPS of $35 or more. If you have the money to play you can buy the $150 call and sell the $200 put for a net debit of about $5 and a move to $225-$250 as many analysts expect would be very profitable. The risk is 2:1 because a falling stock price increases your short put premium while your long call premium shrinks. You lose on both sides. However, if Apple rises you win big on both sides. It would not be a play for timid traders.

Breakout trigger: $182

Buy Jan 2009 $200 Call APV-AT

Breakdown trigger: $165

Buy Jan 2009 $190 Call APV-AR

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FLS - Flowserv

I am going to keep running this play until we get it right. Outstanding earnings, rising backlogs, no end in sight for the drilling sector.

Company Info:

Flowserve Corporation (Flowserve) is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The Company develops and manufactures precision-engineered flow control equipment, such as pumps, valves and seals, for critical service applications. Flowserve offers a range of aftermarket equipment services, such as installation, advanced diagnostics, repair and retrofitting. The Company sells its products and services to more than 10,000 companies, including engineering and construction firms, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors and end users. The Company operates through three business segments: Flowserve Pump Division (FPD) for engineered pumps, industrial pumps and related services; Flow Control Division (FCD) for engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services, and Flow Solutions Division (FSD) for precision mechanical seals and related products and services

Breakdown trigger: $120

Buy Jan 2009 $140 Call FLS-AH

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PCP - Precision Cast Parts

Similar to Flowserve but different. PCP appears to have made a bottom at $92 and a break over $104 would be strong.

Company Info:

Precision Castparts Corp. is a manufacturer of complex metal components and products, provides investment castings, forgings and fasteners/fastener systems for critical aerospace and industrial gas turbine (IGT) applications. The Company also provides investment castings and forgings for general industrial, automotive, armament, medical and other applications; nickel alloys and product forms, as well as cobalt alloys, for the aerospace, chemical processing, oil and gas, pollution control and other industries; fasteners for automotive and general industrial markets; specialty alloys, waxes and metal processing solutions for the investment casting industry; refiner plates, screen cylinders and other products for the pulp and paper industry; metal-injection-molded and ThixoFormed parts for automotive and other markets; low-pressure sewer systems; gas monitoring systems for the power generation industry, and metalworking tools for the fastener market and other applications.

Breakdown trigger: $93

Buy Jan 2010 $120 LEAP Call YAM-AD

Breakout trigger: $105

Buy Jan 2010 $120 LEAP Call YAM-AD
 

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