New Watch List Entries

BIDU - Baidu Inc. (Baidu.com)

CHRW - CH Robinson Worldwide


Active Watch List Candidates

BUCY - Bucyrus Intl.

BVN - Compania de Minas Buenaventura

GLD - SPDR Gold ETF

MA - Mastercard Inc.

NTAP - NetApp, Inc.


Dropped Watch List Entries

CRM has been dropped.


New Watch List Candidates:

Baidu, Inc. (Baidu.com) - BIDU - close: 81.41 change: +2.21

I'm sure that many of you probably agree with me that shares of BIDU look grossly overbought and way too expensive (with a P/E of 107). However, we have to consider that BIDU is the major Internet search player in China, the world's fastest growing and eventually the largest Internet population on the planet. Shares took off like a rocker earlier this year when BIDU's main rival, Google Inc.(GOOG), announced legal troubles with the Chinese government. GOOG was ready to pull out of China due to the Chinese government's firewall and censorship restrictions they were placing on GOOG's operations. Many were surprised that GOOG appears to have capitulated to Chinese government demands and announced Beijing was going to renew their license to due business in China but that hasn't stopped the rally in BIDU.

After topping out in May, shares of BIDU have spent the last three months consolidating gains from the previous four months. Now the stock looks ready to breakout again. Aggressive traders may want to consider small bullish positions now. Currently shares of BIDU are trading under their all-time high of $82.29 from May (this would have been $820.00 pre-split, actual high was $716.67). Odds are good BIDU will breakout again. I am suggesting a trigger to buy (small) bullish positions if BIDU hits $83.50. If triggered we'll use a wide (aggressive) stop loss at $73.40. Our first long-term target is $99.50.

Company Info:
Baidu, Inc. is the leading Chinese language Internet search provider. As a technology-based media company, Baidu aims to provide the best way for people to find information. In addition to serving individual Internet search users, Baidu provides an effective platform for businesses to reach potential customers. Baidu's ADSs currently trade on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the symbol "BIDU". Each of Baidu's Class A ordinary shares is represented by 10 ADSs. (source: company press release or website)

Breakout trigger: $83.50

BUY the 2011 January $90 calls (BIDU1122A90) current ask $6.85

- or -

BUY the 2012 January $100 calls (BIDU1221A100) current ask $11.80

Chart of BIDU:


CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. - CHRW - close: 65.20 change: +0.57

Shares of transportation stock CHRW surged this past week on a much better than expected earnings report. The breakout over resistance near $62.00 could be a significant buy signal. There is still some long-term resistance near $67.50 but I suspect CHRW will retest the $62 level before making much progress. I am suggesting we use a trigger to buy call LEAPS on a dip at $62.25. If triggered we will use a stop loss at $57.75. Our first long-term target is $67.50. Our second, long-term target is $72.50.

Company Info:
Founded in 1905, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., is one of the largest non-asset based third party logistics companies in the world. C.H. Robinson is a global provider of multimodal transportation services and logistics solutions, currently serving over 35,000 customers through a network of 233 offices in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East. C.H. Robinson maintains one of the largest networks of motor carrier capacity in North America and works with over 47,000 transportation providers worldwide. (source: company press release or website)

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $62.25

NOTE: I prefer the 2012 calls!

BUY the 2011 January $65.00 calls (CHRW1122A65) current ask $4.30

- or -

BUY the 2012 January $70.00 calls (CHRW1221A70) current ask $5.30

Chart of CHRW:


Active Watch List Candidates:

Bucyrus Intl. - BUCY - close: 62.22 change: +1.42

I don't see any changes from my prior comments on BUCY. Traders did buy the dip near $59.00 this past week and the stock looks poised to rally higher. More aggressive traders may want to consider small bullish positions now or on a move over $63.00. I would rather not chase it. Instead I am suggesting readers wait for a dip back toward $56.00 as the $55.00 level should be support.

If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $49.50. Our first target is $69.00, which coincides with the bullish point & figure chart target. FYI: I prefer the 2012 call LEAPS but the 2011s should work.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $56.00

BUY the 2011 Jan $65 calls (BUCY1122A65)

- or -

BUY the 2012 Jan $70 calls (BUCY1221A70)

Chart of BUCY:


Compania de Minas Buenaventura - BVN - close: 38.32 change: -1.03

Shares of BVN continue to consolidate sideways. The pattern of lower highs and higher lows is normally neutral but odds favor a breakout in the direction of the preceding trend (this time the trend is up). Therefore I'm starting to think we may want to adjust our trigger to wait for a breakout over the $42.50 or $43.00 levels. For the moment we will keep our trigger at $35.00 but we want to keep positions very, very small as a breakdown from the current consolidation would be bearish. If triggered I'm upping our stop loss to $31.95.

If triggered at $35.00, our first target is $42.25. Our second, more aggressive target is $47.50.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $35.00

BUY the 2011 March $40 calls (BVN1119C40)

Chart of BVN:


Salesforce.com - CRM - close: 98.95 change: +1.16

I am giving up on CRM. The stock moved higher, which is what we expected, but shares never hit our entry point. I regret adjusting our trigger from $75 as we would have been triggered on the spike lower in May. While I am still bullish on CRM and expect it to trade higher short-term I do not want to chase it with a long-term bullish LEAP position. Short-term trades may want to aim for the $110 area.


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 115.49 change: +1.20

The correction in gold prices continued last week and the GLD dipped toward the $113.00 level. For the moment our play remains untriggered but I am very tempted to buy this bounce. The short-term trend is still down so I am adjusting our buy-the-dip entry point from $112.50 down to $112.00. However, I am adding another trigger to buy a move higher. If the GLD closes above $118.00 we want to initiate small bullish positions.

If triggered at $112.00 our stop loss is $106.90. If triggered above $118.00 our stop loss is $111.00. Our target is $140.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $112.00

- or - Buy calls on a close over $118.00

BUY the 2010 March $120 call (GLD 11C120.00)

- or -

BUY the 2012 Jan. $130 call (GLD 12A130.00)

Weekly Chart of GLD:


Mastercard Inc. - MA - close: 210.04 change: + 1.67

MA could see even more volatility this week as the company reports earnings on August 3rd. Wall Street expects a profit of $3.33 a share. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. If MA closes above $220 I'll drop it as a bearish candidate. For now the bearish H&S pattern is still in play. More conservative traders may want to wait for a close under $192.00 before initiating positions. I'm suggesting an intraday trigger at $192.00 to launch small bearish PUT LEAP positions. If triggered we'll use a wide stop loss at $213.00. Our first target is $161.00. FYI: MA is due to report earnings on August 3rd.

Break Down trigger: $192.00

I prefer the 2012 PUT LEAPS but the 2011 PUTS should also work well.

Keep your positions small. MA can be a very volatile stock!

BUY the 2011 Jan $180 PUT LEAPS (MA1122M180)

- or -

BUY the 2012 Jan $160 PUT LEAPS (MA1221M160)

Chart of MA:


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 42.30 change: -0.12

The rally in NTAP may be running out of steam. Shares peaked over the $44 level and faded. It looks like a potential top on the weekly chart. Longer-term the trend is still higher. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Wait for a correction. I'm suggesting a trigger at $38.50. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $34.75 (although we might want to put the stop under the 200-dma instead). If triggered our long-term target is $49.00. FYI: NTAP is due to report earnings on August 18th.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $38.50

BUY the 2011 Jan $40.00 calls (NTAP1122A40)

- or -

BUY the 2012 Jan $45.00 calls (NTAP1221A45)

Chart of NTAP: