New Watch List Entries

BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway

F - Ford Motor Co.

TIVO - TiVo Inc.


Active Watch List Candidates

CDE - Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp

CVX - Chevron Corp

MCD - McDonald's Corp

NVDA - NVIDIA Corp


Dropped Watch List Entries

NTES graduated to the play list.



New Watch List Candidates:


Berkshire Hathaway (B shares) - BRK.B - close: 78.29

Company Info

On a short-term basis Warren Buffett's Berkshire looks bearish with Wednesday's reversal lower. Yet bigger picture the trend is bullish. I am suggesting we launch small bullish positions if BRK.B can close over $80.75. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $77.25. Our long-term target is the $94-98 range.

Breakout trigger:
Wait for a close over $80.75, buy calls the next day.

(Small Positions) use a stop loss at $77.25.

BUY the 2013 Jan $85 call (BRKB1319A85)

Chart of BRK.B:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/03/12


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: $12.72

Company Info

Vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to rise to 14 million in 2012. That's a big improvement over last year. I suspect Ford will be a big winner if the sales pace continues to improve. The stock has been consolidating sideways in the $12.00-13.00 zone the last six-week. A breakout higher can be used as an entry point.

I am suggesting we wait for Ford to close over $13.25 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $11.75. Our long-term target is $16.50.

Breakout trigger: Wait for Ford to close over $13.25, buy calls the next day.

BUY the 2013 Jan $12.50 call (F1319A12.5)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $15 call (F1418A15)

Chart of F:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/03/12


TiVo Inc. - TIVO - close: 11.64

Company Info

On a short-term basis TIVO looks like a buy right now. The stock is bouncing off prior resistance and what is new support near $11.00. I would be tempted to buy calls now with a stop loss just under the $11.00 level. However, I am more concerned about a correction in the major indices so instead of buying this bounce I am suggesting we wait for a breakout.

The early February rally stalled near $12.25. I am suggesting we wait for TIVO to close over $12.25 and then buy calls the next day. We'll use a stop loss at $10.90. Our long-term target is $16.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term $18.50 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for TIVO to close over $12.25, buy calls the next day. Stop loss at $10.90.

BUY the 2013 Jan $12.50 call (TIVO1319A12.5)

Chart of TIVO:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/03/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. - CDE - close: 27.57

Comments:
03/03/12 update: It was a volatile week for precious metals and the mining stocks. Early last week gold and silver were soaring but the both reversed hard on Wednesday following Bernanke's comments and a bounce in the dollar. CDE saw its big rally on Tuesday reverse. It was a close call but CDE did not meet our entry requirements, which was a close over $30.25 so our trade is not open yet.

Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a dip near the $26.50 lows with a tight stop. I am suggesting we still wait for a breakout higher. We are adjusting our trigger from a close over $30.25 to $30.50.

If our trade is opened we'll start with a stop loss at $27.25. Our long-term target is $37.00.

Breakout trigger:
Wait for a close over $30.50 and buy calls the next day.

BUY the 2013 Jan $35 call (CDE1319A35)

03/03/12 adjusted trigger to close over $30.50

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/25/12


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 109.61

Comments:
03/03/12 update: CVX managed a gain for the week but the action on Wednesday looks like a bearish reversal pattern. If the market corrects then CVX could drop toward the $105 area.

I don't see any changes from my prior comments. The early 2012 high was $110.99. I am suggesting we wait for CVX to close over $111.00 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $105.75 (under the 50-dma). Our long-term target is $125.00. FYI: the Point & Figure chart for CVX is bullish with a $133 target.

Breakout trigger:
Wait for CVX to close over $111.00 and buy calls the next day.

BUY the 2013 Jan $120 call (CVX1319A120)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $120 call (CVX1418A120

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/25/12


McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close: 99.50

Comments:
03/03/12 update: It's about six weeks old but the neutral pattern of higher lows and lower highs continues. Normally we would expect the prevailing trend to resume. In this case the prevailing trend is up. However, the market is overbought and due for a pullback so we are waiting for a correction.

Right now the plan is to buy calls on a dip at $95.50. Nimble traders may want to focus on the simple 100-dma instead.

Our long-term target is $108.00.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $95.50, stop 89.50

BUY the 2013 Jan $100 call (MCD1319A100)

12/24/11 adjusted entry point to $95.50, stop loss to $89.50
12/17/11 adjusted entry point to $91.50, stop loss to $87.25
11/26/11 adjusted stop loss to $86.45

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 15.38

Comments:
03/03/12 update: The correction in NVDA seems to have found support near the 200-ema. That might be wishful thinking. We are still on the sidelines. It looks like NVDA has produced a very big base over the last eight months but we want to wait for a breakout.

The plan is to wait for NVDA to close over $17.05 before we initiate positions the next day with a stop loss at $15.40. Our long-term target is $21.75.

Wait for a close over: $17.05, buy calls the next day.
stop loss @ 15.40.

BUY the 2013 Jan $20 call (NVDA1319A20)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/18/12