New Watch List Entries

FTR - Frontier Telecom

KMB - Kimberly-Clark

SIRI - SIRIUS XM Radio


Active Watch List Candidates

CCL - Carnival Corp.

DE - Deere & Co.

GE - General Electric

GLD - Gold ETF

JPM - JPMorgan Chase


Dropped Watch List Entries

JOY graduated to our play list. I have removed AMED as a candidate.



New Watch List Candidates:


Frontier Comm. - FTR - close: 4.92

Company Info

FTR is a U.S. telecom company. After a painful plunge from $9.50 in earl 2011 the stock bottomed near $3.00 back in May 2012. Since then FTR has slowly been working its way higher and consolidating under resistance. Well now shares are challenging significant resistance at $5.00 and its simple 300-dma.

Friday saw a spike to $5.15. I am suggesting we buy calls after FTR closes above $5.20. Wait for FTR to close above our trigger and buy calls the next day with a stop at $4.65. Our long-term target is $6.90. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $5.20 (stop 4.65)

BUY the 2014 Jan $5 call (FTR1418a5) current ask $0.55

Chart of FTR:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Kimberly-Clark - KMB - close: 85.78

Company Info

KMB might be considered a defensive play. Shares are in the consumer goods sector. The company makes all manner of personal care products like diapers, baby wipes, facial tissue, paper towels, etc. The stock is currently yielding 3.5%. Traders bought the dip twice near $82.00 and KMB looks poised to challenge its 2012 highs. I suspect the stock will breakout. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $105 target.

I am suggesting we wait for KMB to close over $86.25 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $83.45. Our target is $99.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $86.25 (stop 83.45)

BUY the 2014 Jan $90 call (KMB1418a90) current ask $3.70

Chart of KMB:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


SIRIUS XM Radio - SIRI - close: 2.59

Company Info

Not to be confused with Apple's digital assistant, Siri, this stock (SIRI) is the satellite radio company. Sirius and XM radio battled it out for a few years before finally merging. The stock has been a dog for years but it has been working its way higher. Traders recently bought the dip at its rising 50-dma and now SIRI is poised to breakout past resistance near $2.60.

I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade because SIRI can be so volatile. The August high was $2.64. I am suggesting we wait for SIRI to close over $2.65 and then open bullish positions the next day.

Please note, in addition to the LEAPS option listed I am also listing buying the stock since SIRI is a low dollar stock and about the price of some of the options we trade.

Our long-term target is $3.90.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $2.65 (stop 2.29)

BUY the 2014 Jan $3.00 call (SIRI1418a3) current ask $0.33

- or -

BUY the stock SIRI

Chart of SIRI:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Amedisys Inc. - AMED - close: 13.82

Comments:
09/29/12: AMED has faded farther and farther away from resistance near the $16.00 level. The breakdown under what should have been support near $14.00 and its 50-dma and 200-ema is a potential sell signal.

I am removing AMED as a candidate.

Trade did not open.

09/29/12 removed from the watch list
09/15/12 strategy change: wait for AMED to close over $16.10, then buy calls the next day. Use the March 2013 $16 call. Raise the stop to $13.90. Move the exit target to $19.90.

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/08/12


Carnival Corp. - CCL - close: 37.39

Comments:
09/29/12: CCL reported earnings this past week. The company beat estimates but then ruined the news by guiding lower. We have been expecting a pullback. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

I am suggesting we open small bullish positions on a dip at $35.25 with a stop at $32.75.

Our long-term target is $42.00. FYI: The point and figure chart is bullish with a $48 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $35.25 (stop loss @ 32.75) *Small Positions*

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (CCL1418a40)

09/22/12 earnings are due on Sep. 25th. We are adjusting our entry trigger to $35.25 and our stop loss to $32.75
09/15/12 move the trigger to $36.00 and the stop to $33.75

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/08/12


Deere & Co. - DE - close: 82.47

Comments:
09/29/12: DE is holding up pretty well, especially considering how its rival CAT issued an earnings warning last week. I am still expecting DE to dip but I'm not sure $80 will hold as support.

We will adjust our buy-the-dip trigger to $79.00 and move our stop loss down to $74.90. We want to keep our position size small. Our long-term target is $94.00.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $79.00 (stop loss 74.90)

BUY the 2014 Jan $90 call (DE1418a90)

09/29/12 adjust our entry point to buy a dip at $79.00, adjust the stop loss to $74.90

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/15/12


General Electric - GE - close: 22.71

Comments:
09/29/12: GE managed to shrug off the market's widespread weakness and the stock rallied to another new multi-year high. We still don't want to chase it here. Right now the plan is to wait for a correction and buy a dip.

I am listing a buy-the-dip entry point at $21.50 with a stop loss at $19.75. Our long-term target is $27.50.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $21.50 (stop 19.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $25 call (GE1418a25)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 171.89

Comments:
09/29/12: The U.S. dollar has been rebounding higher, which may be slowing the rally in gold this past week. The GLD has been churning sideways. I am still expecting a correction before it moves higher.

Currently I am suggesting we buy calls on a dip at $165.50. Plan to exit the 2013 calls at $174.50. Exit the 2014 calls in the $185-200 range.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $165.50 (stop loss @ 159.00)

BUY the 2013 Jan $175 call (GLD1319a175)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $200 call (GLD1418a200)

09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


JPMorgan Chase - JPM - close: 40.48

Comments:
09/29/12: Traders bought the dip near $40.00 this past week. JPM ended the week with a 40-cent loss. It's possible the $40 level will hold but I suspect we will see JPM spike lower and we want to be ready to buy the dip.

I am suggesting we buy calls on a dip at $38.50 with a stop loss at $35.75. Our long-term target is $45.00.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $38.50 (stop 35.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $45 call (JPM1418a45)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12