New Watch List Entries

FSLR - First Solar Inc.

VLO - Valero Energy


Active Watch List Candidates

ADBE - Adobe Systems

GE - General Electric

GLD - Gold ETF

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises

SWN - Southwestern Energy


Dropped Watch List Entries

CNX and SCCO have graduated to the play list.
DE was removed.



New Watch List Candidates:


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 24.55

Company Info

Shares of solar energy stock FSLR actually managed a gain for the week. Traders bought the sell-off from Nov. 2nd and now FSLR is nearing resistance in the $25-26 zone. The stock has been consolidating in a bullish pattern for over two months. A breakout should herald the next leg higher.

I am suggesting we wait for FSLR to close above $26.00 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $21.90. Our long-term target is $39.75.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $26.00 (stop @ 21.90)

BUY the 2014 Jan $30 call (FSLR1418a30) current ask $4.90

Chart of FSLR:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


Valero Energy - VLO - close: 29.59

Company Info

VLO looks like it has found a bottom. Most of the market was selling off last week. Yet VLO was bouncing from support near $28 and its 100-dma. Shares look poised to breakout past resistance near $30.50 and its 50-dma.

I am suggesting we wait for VLO to close over $30.60 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $27.75. Our long-term target is $39.75.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $30.60 (stop @ 27.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $35 call (VLO1418a35) current ask $2.73

Chart of VLO:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 32.90

Comments:
11/10/12: Shares of ADBE were not immune to the market's widespread declines. The stock has reversed back toward short-term support near $33 and its 50-dma. We will give ADBE a couple of more weeks to recover. Right now we are waiting for a bullish breakout higher.

I am suggesting we wait for ADBE to close over $35.25 and then buy calls the next day. Our long-term target is $44.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $35.25 (stop @ 32.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (ADBE1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


Deere & Co. - DE - close: 84.29

Comments:
11/10/12: The stock market's current trend is down and DE is due to report earnings on November 21st. Considering the recent trend of earnings results and the market's reaction to earnings news there is a good chance that DE will move lower on the report. I am removing DE as a watch list candidate for now and we'll look at it again after its earnings report.

Trade did not open.

11/10/12 removed DE as a watch list candidate.
11/03/12 DE appears to have reversed, use a trigger @ 82.00
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $83.50, move the stop to $79.45, move the target to $97.50
09/29/12 adjust our entry point to buy a dip at $79.00, adjust the stop loss to $74.90

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/15/12


General Electric - GE - close: 21.00

Comments:
11/10/12: GE is breaking down past support near $21.00 as expected. Given the market's current trend I suspect GE will test its 200-dma near $20.20. We will move our buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.25 and adjust our stop loss to $19.25. Our long-term target is $27.50.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $20.25 (stop 19.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $25 call (GE1418a25)

11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 167.82

Comments:
11/10/12: Normally when the dollar rallies, commodities retreat. Yet this week we have seen both the dollar and gold rise together. I can't explain the rise in the dollar but gold is rising due to Obama's reelection. If Romney was elected he was planning to fire Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Now Bernanke can keep his position and the Fed's current QE programs will remain in effect, which should devalue the dollar, making gold more expensive.

Currently our buy-the-dip trigger is at $160.00 with a stop loss at $154.40.

Plan to exit the 2013 June calls at $174.50. Exit the 2014 calls in the $185-200 range.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $160.00 (stop loss @ 154.40)

BUY the 2013 Jun $175 call (GLD1322a175)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $200 call (GLD1418a200)

11/03/12 Adjust the entry trigger down to $160.00 and the stop to $154.40
10/27/12 adjust the entry trigger to $162.00 and the stop to $154.90
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $163.00, stop to $157.75
adjust the 2013 call from Jan. $175 to June $175
09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


Royal Caribbean Cruises - RCL - close: 34.44

Comments:
11/10/12: Shares of RCL have held up pretty well considering the market's decline this past week. We are still waiting for a correction lower.

I am suggesting we wait and buy calls on a dip at $32.25 with a stop loss at $29.25. Our long-term target is $39.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $57 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $32.25 (stop loss @ 29.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $35 call (RCL1418a35)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


Southwestern Energy - SWN - close: 34.20

Comments:
11/10/12: SWN has pulled back toward short-term support. If shares close under $33.50 we'll likely drop it as a candidate. We are waiting for a breakout past resistance.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we wait for SWN to close over $37.00 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $33.40. Our long-term target is $44.00. The Point & Figure chart for SWN is bullish with a long-term $51 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $37.00 (stop 33.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (SWN1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12