New Watch List Entries

MSI - Motorola Solutions

NOK - Nokia Corp.


Active Watch List Candidates

ADBE - Adobe Systems

FSLR - First Solar Inc.

GLD - Gold ETF

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises

SWN - Southwestern Energy

VLO - Valero Energy


Dropped Watch List Entries

GE graduated to the active trade list.



New Watch List Candidates:


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 52.89

Company Info

The market has been in a widespread decline. Bullish candidates are getting harder to find. MSI has not been immune to the market weakness but selling pressure has definitely been mild. Shares broke out past major resistance at $52.00 in early November and have since consolidated sideways in the $52-54 zone. More aggressive traders may want to go ahead and buy calls now on Friday's intraday bounce near $52. I am suggesting a more conservative approach. We will wait for MSI to close over $54.00 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $49.75. More conservative traders could put their stop higher, maybe closer to $52.00 instead. Our long-term target is $65.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish and is forecasting at $70 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for MSI to close over $54.00 (stop 49.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $60 call (MSI1418a60) current ask $2.72

Chart of MSI:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Nokia Corp. - NOK - close: 2.77

Company Info

NOKIA used to be the largest mobile phone maker in the world. Yet missteps navigating the current smartphone craze have let Samsung grow to be the larger phone maker. Believe it or not NOK made the first commercial "smart phone" but that was years and years ago before the term "smartphone" was so ubiquitous. It was eventually eclipsed by RIMM's BlackBerry and then the Apple iPhone and now Google's Android. It seemed that NOK could not get out of its own way as lighter, more nimble competitors stole the limelight. Now after years of stock market declines there is growing potential that NOK's stock has finally found a bottom.

At less than $3.00 a share and close to book value for the company all the bad news may be finally priced in. Currently NOK is consolidating sideways and it is coiling more tightly ready to breakout one way or the other. I am expecting it to break higher.

I am suggesting readers wait for NOK to close above $2.85 and open bullish positions the next morning. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $2.49. Our long-term target is $4.95 but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The stock is cheap enough that I am also listing buying the stock instead of an option as a trade.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $2.85 (stop @ 2.49)

BUY shares of NOK stock

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $3.00 call (NOK1418a3) current ask $0.65

Chart of NOK:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 32.65

Comments:
11/17/12: ADBE fell less than 30 cents for the week. The stock appears to be finding support near its trend of higher lows. Honestly, more aggressive traders may want to consider buying calls now and using a tight stop loss near the $32.00 level. The newsletter is going to stick to our original plan. I am suggesting we wait for ADBE to close over $35.25 and then buy calls the next day. Our long-term target is $44.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $35.25 (stop @ 32.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (ADBE1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 23.54

Comments:
11/17/12: FSLR rallied up toward resistance near $26.00 early in the week and reversed. Shares are now testing technical support at the 50-dma. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

I am suggesting we wait for FSLR to close above $26.00 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $21.90. Our long-term target is $39.75.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $26.00 (stop @ 21.90)

BUY the 2014 Jan $30 call (FSLR1418a30)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 165.88

Comments:
11/17/12: The U.S. dollar continues to inch higher and is now up four weeks in a row. That's putting pressure on gold prices and the GLD faded lower. I am still expecting a correction lower toward $160.00. There is no change from my prior comments.

Plan to exit the 2013 June calls at $174.50. Exit the 2014 calls in the $185-200 range.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $160.00 (stop loss @ 154.40)

BUY the 2013 Jun $175 call (GLD1322a175)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $200 call (GLD1418a200)

11/03/12 Adjust the entry trigger down to $160.00 and the stop to $154.40
10/27/12 adjust the entry trigger to $162.00 and the stop to $154.90
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $163.00, stop to $157.75
adjust the 2013 call from Jan. $175 to June $175
09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


Royal Caribbean Cruises - RCL - close: 33.09

Comments:
11/17/12: RCL is slowly pulling back from resistance near $35.00. Right now I am suggesting readers buy calls on a dip at $32.25. You could also wait for a dip to $32.00 or the 50-dma instead. Or as an alternative you could wait for a close over $35.00 as a bullish entry point. Our long-term target is $39.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $57 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $32.25 (stop loss @ 29.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $35 call (RCL1418a35)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


Southwestern Energy - SWN - close: 35.64

Comments:
11/17/12: SWN displayed relative strength this past week. Yet the stock continues to trade inside a neutral pattern of higher lows and lower highs. There is no change from my prior comments. We are waiting for a breakout past resistance.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we wait for SWN to close over $37.00 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $33.40. Our long-term target is $44.00. The Point & Figure chart for SWN is bullish with a long-term $51 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $37.00 (stop 33.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (SWN1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12


Valero Energy - VLO - close: 29.36

Comments:
11/17/12: It was a relatively quiet week for VLO with shares consolidating sideways under resistance at $30.00. With the market poised to bounce this Thanksgiving week we might see VLO meet our entry point requirement soon.

I am suggesting we wait for VLO to close over $30.60 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $27.75. Our long-term target is $39.75.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $30.60 (stop @ 27.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $35 call (VLO1418a35)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12