New Watch List Entries

EXPE - Expedia

M - Macy's Inc.


Active Watch List Candidates

ADBE - Adobe Systems

FSLR - First Solar Inc.

GLD - Gold ETF

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises

SWN - Southwestern Energy


Dropped Watch List Entries

MSI - moved to new plays.

NOK and VLO graduated to our play list.



New Watch List Candidates:


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 60.59

Company Info

EXPE seems to be firing on all cylinders. The recent earnings report (late October) was better than expected. The company seems to be gaining market share and continues to see strong revenue growth. The stock weathered the market's November sell-off pretty well. Now shares are testing resistance near $60 and are poised to hit new highs.

I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

The recent high was $61.38. I am suggesting we wait for EXPE to close over $61.50 and then buy calls the next day. If triggered we'll start with a stop loss at $54.40. Our long-term target is $79.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $61.50 (stop 54.40)

*Small Positions*

BUY the 2014 Jan $75 call (EXPE1418a75) current ask $5.70

Chart of EXPE:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 41.73

Company Info

Macy's recent earnings report was somewhat disappointing as management lowered their Q4 guidance. Yet investors bought the dip at M's bullish trend of higher lows and its 200-dma. Now the stock is poised to breakout to new multi-year highs.

The $42.00 level is resistance. I am suggesting we wait for M to close over $42.25 and then buy calls the next day. Our long-term target is $54.50.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $42.25 (stop 37.90)

BUY the 2014 Jan $50 call (M1418a50) current ask $1.97

Chart of M:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 33.40

Comments:
11/24/12: ADBE is bouncing as expected. The rally past its 50-dma is technically bullish. Yet it could be a while before the stock pushes past resistance near $35.00. I am suggesting we wait for ADBE to close over $35.25 and then buy calls the next day. Our long-term target is $44.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $35.25 (stop @ 32.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (ADBE1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 24.45

Comments:
11/24/12: FSLR has made some progress as it continues to bounce from its 50-dma. We are still waiting for a breakout through resistance.

I am suggesting we wait for FSLR to close above $26.00 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $21.90. Our long-term target is $39.75.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $26.00 (stop @ 21.90)

BUY the 2014 Jan $30 call (FSLR1418a30)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 169.61

Comments:
11/24/12: I am honestly starting to wonder if we missed our entry point in the GLD. Gold saw a sharp spike lower in early November and since then it has been working its way higher. Friday's rally past its 50-dma is technically bullish but I don't want to chase it here. We'll see how things fare over the next couple of weeks. If the situation in Europe worsens it could push the dollar higher and that would weigh on gold.

At the moment our entry point is to buy a dip at $160.00.

Plan to exit the 2013 June calls at $174.50. Exit the 2014 calls in the $185-200 range.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $160.00 (stop loss @ 154.40)

BUY the 2013 June $175 call (GLD1322a175)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $200 call (GLD1418a200)

11/03/12 Adjust the entry trigger down to $160.00 and the stop to $154.40
10/27/12 adjust the entry trigger to $162.00 and the stop to $154.90
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $163.00, stop to $157.75
adjust the 2013 call from Jan. $175 to June $175
09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


Royal Caribbean Cruises - RCL - close: 34.93

Comments:
11/24/12: RCL was showing relative strength on Friday with a +3.1% gain. The stock looks poised to breakout past resistance near $35.00 soon. More aggressive traders may want to consider a close above $35.00 as an alternative entry point.

Currently our plan is to buy a dip at $32.25 but that may not happen any time soon. Our long-term target is $39.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $57 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $32.25 (stop loss @ 29.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $35 call (RCL1418a35)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


Southwestern Energy - SWN - close: 36.60

Comments:
11/24/12: SWN is up two weeks in a row. The stock looks poised to breakout from its multi-month trading range. Our entry point could be hit soon.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we wait for SWN to close over $37.00 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $33.40. Our long-term target is $44.00. The Point & Figure chart for SWN is bullish with a long-term $51 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $37.00 (stop 33.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (SWN1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12