New Watch List Entries

HFC - HollyFrontier Corp

SBUX - Starbucks Corp

VMC - Vulcan Materials Co


Active Watch List Candidates

ADBE - Adobe Systems

GLD - Gold ETF

M - Macy's Inc.

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises

SWN - Southwestern Energy


Dropped Watch List Entries

EXPE and FSLR graduated to the active play list.



New Watch List Candidates:


HollyFrontier - HFC - close: 45.33

Company Info

The $40.00 level was major resistance for this oil refining stock. The stock is now trading at all-time highs. Recent action would suggest momentum has stalled and HFC might see a correction. We want to be ready to buy a dip.

I am suggesting we buy calls when HFC dips to $42.00. We'll start with a stop loss at $39.40. Our long-term target is $49.75.

FYI: HFC has a dividend coming up. The stock should begin trading ex-dividend on Dec. 6th. The dividend should only be about 20 cents.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $42.00 (stop loss @ 39.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $50 call (1418a50) current ask $4.80

Chart of HFC:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 51.87

Company Info

It has taken several months but SBUX has finally recovered from the major bearish breakdown back in July 2012. Now shares are testing resistance near $52.00 and its simple 200-dma. A breakout here could signal the next leg higher.

I am suggesting we wait for a close over $52.50 and then buy calls the next day. If triggered we'll start with a stop loss at $47.75. Our initial target is the all-time high at $62.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $52.50 (stop 47.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $60 call (SBUX1418a60) current ask $3.15

Chart of SBUX:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


Vulcan Materials Co. - VMC - close: 52.84

Company Info

VMC is in the industrial goods sector. The company makes building materials like asphalt and concrete. The stock spent more than two months consolidating sideways under resistance at $50.00. Shares managed a bullish breakout past this level a couple of days ago. We want to buy a dip.

I am suggesting we open bullish positions on a dip at $50.25. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $46.40. Our long-term target is $64.00 although I would expect some resistance at $60.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish and is forecasting at $70 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $50.25 (stop loss 46.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $55 call (VMC1418a55) current ask $6.90

Chart of VMC:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 34.61

Comments:
12/01/12: The bounce in ADBE is accelerating. Shares surged toward resistance in the $34.50-35.00 zone. Kudos to anyone who bought the bounce when I suggested it two weeks ago. Now ADBE is on the verge of a bullish breakout.

I am suggesting we wait for ADBE to close over $35.25 and then buy calls the next day. Our long-term target is $44.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $35.25 (stop @ 32.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (ADBE1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 166.05

Comments:
12/01/12: Gold prices took an unexpected plunge on Wednesday morning. There didn't seem to be any good explanations for the sell-off and so far the bounce is failing. I suspect shares of the GLD are headed back to the $162.00 level again. Currently we have a buy-the-dip trigger at $160.00 but readers may want to consider buying a bounce at $162.00 if we see one.

Plan to exit the 2013 June calls at $174.50. Exit the 2014 calls in the $185-200 range.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $160.00 (stop loss @ 154.40)

BUY the 2013 June $175 call (GLD1322a175)

- or -

BUY the 2014 Jan $200 call (GLD1418a200)

11/03/12 Adjust the entry trigger down to $160.00 and the stop to $154.40
10/27/12 adjust the entry trigger to $162.00 and the stop to $154.90
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $163.00, stop to $157.75
adjust the 2013 call from Jan. $175 to June $175
09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 38.70

Comments:
12/01/12: Ouch! What happened to Macy's? Did the stock just get crushed with a Black Friday hangover? Shares plunged on Monday and then sold off again on Thursday thanks to disappointing same-store sales. M blamed the disappointment on Hurricane Sandy. Now shares of Macy's are back to support near $38 and its rising 100-dma and 200-dma. We are still on the sidelines.

I am suggesting we wait for M to close over $42.25 and then buy calls the next day. Our long-term target is $54.50.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close over $42.25 (stop 37.90)

BUY the 2014 Jan $50 call (M1418a50)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


Royal Caribbean Cruises - RCL - close: 35.25

Comments:
12/01/12: Hmm... RCL is still inching higher. I am starting to think that we may want to buy calls on a breakout past resistance near $35.00 (which would mean now!). However, I'm not ready to switch strategies just yet.

Currently our plan is to buy a dip at $32.25 but that may not happen any time soon. Our long-term target is $39.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $57 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $32.25 (stop loss @ 29.25)

BUY the 2014 Jan $35 call (RCL1418a35)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


Southwestern Energy - SWN - close: 34.71

Comments:
12/01/12: SWN underperformed this past week with a multi-day pullback. This could have been a reflection of the sell-off in natural gas prices. Shares of SWN remain inside its consolidation range for now.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we wait for SWN to close over $37.00 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $33.40. Our long-term target is $44.00. The Point & Figure chart for SWN is bullish with a long-term $51 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $37.00 (stop 33.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $40 call (SWN1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12