New Watch List Entries

JNPR - Juniper Networks

URBN - Urban Outfitters


Active Watch List Candidates

C - Citigroup

GLD - Gold ETF

HFC - HollyFrontier Corp

KO - The Coca-Cola Co.

VMC - Vulcan Materials Co


Dropped Watch List Entries

Macy's (M) was removed.



New Watch List Candidates:


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 19.59

Company Info

Some of the networking stocks have been showing relative strength. JNPR extended its gains last week and is now up four weeks in a row. The stock broke through resistance at its 200-dma about two weeks ago. Now JNPR is challenging major resistance at the $20.00 mark. The P&F chart is already bullish and forecasting at $26 target.

I am suggesting we wait for JNPR to close above $20.25 and buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $18.75. Our target is $24.75.

Breakout trigger: Wait for JNPR to close above $20.25 (stop 18.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $25 call (JNPR1418a25) current ask $1.52

Chart of JNPR:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


Urban Outfitters - URBN - close: 38.60

Company Info

URBN was showing some relative strength this past week. The company reported in a regulatory filing that its same-store sales were coming in better than previously expected. This prompted some analysts to raise their price targets on the stock. We might be a little bit early here but URBN seems to be powering up for a breakout past major resistance in the $40-40.75 range.

I am suggesting we wait for URBN to close above $40.75 and then buy calls the next day. If triggered our long-term target is $48.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $40.75, (stop @ 37.85)

buy the 2014 Jan $45 call (URBN1418a45) current ask $3.30

Chart of URBN:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/15/12


Active Watch List Candidates:



Citigroup - C - close: 37.60

Comments:
12/15/12: Citigroup spent the week consolidating sideways and only losing four cents for the week. The relative strength is encouraging. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Citigroup is nearing resistance in the $38.00-38.50 zone. A breakout here would be a new 2012 high.

I am suggesting we wait for C to close above $38.50 and then buy calls the next day. Our long-term target is the $47.50-50.00 range.

Breakout trigger: wait for a close over $38.50 (stop 34.65)

BUY the 2014 Jan $45 call (C1418a45)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/12


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 164.13

Comments:
12/15/12: There was an odd disconnect between gold and the dollar this past week. Normally when the dollar declines it means gold rises. Yet this past week both the dollar and gold declined. I suspect this disconnect is temporary. We've been expecting gold and the GLD to decline. There is support near $160 and I suspect support near $160. I am looking for the GLD to dip toward its long-term trend line of higher lows (see chart below) as our entry point.

More aggressive traders could buy a dip near $162. I am suggesting we buy a dip at $160.00.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $160.00 (stop loss @ 154.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $200 call (GLD1418a200)

12/08/12 removed the 2013 call. Only use the 2014 call
11/03/12 Adjust the entry trigger down to $160.00 and the stop to $154.40
10/27/12 adjust the entry trigger to $162.00 and the stop to $154.90
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $163.00, stop to $157.75
adjust the 2013 call from Jan. $175 to June $175
09/15/12 adjust the trigger to $165.50, stop to $159.00.
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $164.00 (up from $162)

Chart of GLD:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/01/12


HollyFrontier - HFC - close: 46.60

Comments:
12/15/12: HFC continues to outperform. The stock rallied almost every day this past week. Friday saw a bullish breakout to new all-time, record highs. More aggressive traders may want to buy calls now on this breakout. I'm not ready to chase it just yet. We will adjust our buy-the-dip trigger higher to $43.00. If HFC can hold these gains then we'll reconsider adjusting our entry strategy again next week.

For now I am suggesting we buy calls when HFC dips to $43.00. We'll start with a stop loss at $39.75. Our long-term target is $49.75.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $43.00 (stop loss @ 39.75)

BUY the 2014 Jan $50 call (1418a50)

12/15/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $43.00, stop to 39.75

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


The Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 37.66

Comments:
12/15/12: KO is still consolidating sideways beneath resistance near $38.00 and its 100-dma and 150-dma.

I am suggesting we wait for KO to close above $38.25 and then buy calls the next day. If triggered our long-term target is $44.00.

Breakout trigger: wait for a close over $38.25 (stop 35.75)

BUY the 2014 $40 call (KO1418a40)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/08/12


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 38.07

Comments:
12/15/12: We are giving up on Macy's. The stock's bounce failed near resistance on Monday and Tuesday and shares are poised to breakdown under $38.00 soon. Short-term traders may actually want to consider bearish positions on a break below $38 and target the $35 area.

Our plan was to wait for M to close above $42.25 but it doesn't look like that's going to happen any time soon.

Trade did not open.

12/15/12 M is not working. removed from the newsletter.

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


Vulcan Materials Co. - VMC - close: 51.60

Comments:
12/15/12: VMC has been consolidating sideways but traders keep buying the dips near $51.00. More aggressive traders may want to buy calls now. I am looking for a dip toward $50.00.

I am suggesting we open bullish positions on a dip at $50.25. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $46.40. Our long-term target is $64.00 although I would expect some resistance at $60.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish and is forecasting at $70 target.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $50.25 (stop loss 46.40)

BUY the 2014 Jan $55 call (VMC1418a55)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12