New Watch List Entries


None, no new watch list candidates



Active Watch List Candidates

AIG - Amer. Intl. Group

BZH - Beazer Homes

DIS - Walt Disney

GM - General Motors

JNJ - Johnson & Johnson

K - Kellogg Co.

SBUX - Starbucks Corp.

UNP - Union Pacific

V - Visa

WDC - Western Digital Corp


Dropped Watch List Entries

JPM graduated to our active trade list.
I am removing HOV this evening.



New Watch List Candidates:


Editor's Note:

I looked at over 1,500 stocks this weekend. While I found a few that looked like they might have potential there was nothing that screamed "add me to the watch list now". That's probably because I have a bearish bias for the market and my bias could be getting in the way (see tonight's market commentary for details).

I am not adding any new watch list candidates or new trades tonight. I strongly suspect stocks could be lower a month from now.

I will point out that these four stocks seem to be bucking the trend: AMZN, MNST, NBL, and PRU. You may want to keep an eye on them.

AMZN A close over the January 2013 highs near $285.00 could be used as a bullish entry point. I would target the $325-350 zone.

MNST This can be a volatile stock. A close over $63.00 could be a bullish entry point if you're willing to endure the volatility. I would target the $75.00 region.

NBL This energy-sector stock has definitely been outperforming the energy sector. A close above $61.65 could be used as a bullish entry point. My long-term target would be the $70 area.

PRU This stock is in the financial sector and shares are trading at multi-year highs. A close above $73.50 could be a bullish entry point. I would target the $90 level.


Active Watch List Candidates:



American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 44.70

Comments:
06/30/13: AIG has filled the gap from early May and rebounded. The stock closed just below a few moving averages on Friday. Investors may want to consider buying calls if AIG can close above $46.50. The LEAPStrader newsletter is suggesting investors wait for a dip toward $40.00.

The plan is to buy calls on a dip at $40.00. Our long-term target is the $50 region.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $40.00, stop loss @ 36.35

BUY the 2014 Jan $45 call (AIG1418a45)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $50 call (AIG1517a50)

06/16/13 adjust entry strategy: move the buy-the-dip trigger to $40.00, from 38.50. Move the stop loss to $36.35 from 34.75.

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/01/13


Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 17.52

Comments:
06/30/13: It was a quiet week for BZH. The stock posted another loss and underperformed the homebuilder ETF, which rebounded. Right now our plan is to buy calls if BZH can close above $20.50 but we may consider buying calls if BZH can dip to what should be support near $14.00. Rising mortgage rates may continue to put pressure on homebuilders as investors worry about the impact on home sales.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting investors wait for BZH to close above $20.50 and then buy calls the next day. If triggered we will start with a stop loss at $18.45. Our long-term target is $26.00.

Please note that I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $20.50, stop $18.45

BUY the 2014 Jan $22 call (BZH1418a22)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $25 call (BZH1517a25)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/16/13


Walt Disney - DIS - close: 63.15

Comments:
06/30/13: DIS bounced from support near $62.00 but the rally failed at resistance near its 50-dma and its trend line of lower highs. Short-term traders may want to consider buying puts with a stop above Friday's high (target $60 or $58). Currently our plan to buy calls on a correction has not changed.

Earlier Comments:
More aggressive investors could jump in on a dip or a bounce near $60.00. The newsletter is suggesting readers use an entry trigger to buy calls on a dip at $57.00. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $53.75. Our long-term target is the $75-80 zone.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $57.00, stop @ 53.75

BUY the 2014 Jan $65 call (DIS1418a65)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $65 call (DIS1418a65)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/01/13


General Motors - GM - close: 33.31

Comments:
06/30/13: Shares of GM produced a pretty strong four-day bounce but I'm not convinced the correction is over. We are expecting a decline toward round-number support at $30.00.

Please note that I am adjusting our buy-the-dip trigger to $30.50.

Earlier Comments:
Currently I am suggesting investors use a buy-the-dip trigger at $30.00 to launch call positions on GM. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $27.75. Our long-term target is the $36-40 zone.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $30.50, stop @ 27.75

BUY the 2014 Jan $35 call (GM1418a35)

BUY the 2015 Jan $35 call (GM1517a35)

06/30/13 adjust buy-the-dip entry trigger to $30.50, from $30.00.

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/01/13


Hovnanian Enterprises - HOV - close: 5.61

Comments:
06/30/13: HOV closed virtually unchanged for the week. The oversold bounce already appears to be failing. I am removing HOV as a watch list candidate. The stock is unlikely to meet our entry point requirements any time soon. The plan was to buy calls (or the stock) when shares hit $6.61.

Trade did not open.

06/30/13 removed from the watch list

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/16/13


Johnson & Johnson - JNJ - close: 85.86

Comments:
06/30/13: Hmm... JNJ produced a pretty big bounce last week. Yet the rally appears to have failed near $88.00. If you look at the month of June shares of JNJ appear to be building a broadening top formation. I am not changing our strategy. We will wait for a deeper correction. See my earlier comments.

FYI: JNJ is due to report earnings on July 16th.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting buy calls on a dip at $77.50. If triggered we'll start with a stop loss at $74.45. Our long-term target is the $85-90 zone.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $77.50

BUY the 2014 Jan $80 call (JNJ1418a80)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $85 call (JNJ1517a85)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/23/13


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 64.23

Comments:
06/30/13: Kellogg delivered a meager bounce last week and was unable to breakthrough the trend of lower highs. There is no change from my earlier comments.

Earlier Comments:
This newsletter is suggesting investors wait for shares of K to close above $67.00 and then buy calls the next morning.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $67.00, stop loss $63.75.

BUY the 2015 Jan $75 call (K1517a75)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/16/13


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 65.51

Comments:
06/30/13: It looks like SBUX may have just formed a new lower high. Yet it's worth noting that SBUX remains inside a bullish channel. It will take a close below the simple 40-dma (or maybe the 50-dma) to really break the up trend. With the stock market looking weak we don't want to chase SBUX near its highs. We are waiting for a correction back toward support.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger at $60.25. If triggered we'll start with a stop loss at $55.65.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $60.25

BUY the 2014 Jan $65 call (SBUX1418a65)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $70 call (SBUX1517a70)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/23/13


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 154.28

Comments:
06/30/13: Hmm... thus far shares of UNP continue to trade within its bull-flag consolidation pattern. You can see how the trend of lower highs and lower lows line up. More aggressive investors may want to consider buying calls if UNP can close above $158.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting investors wait for UNP to close above $161.00 and then buy calls the next morning. If triggered we will start with a stop loss at $151.00. Our long-term target is $185.00 for the 2014 calls and $200 for the 2015 calls.

FYI: UNP is scheduled to report earnings on July 18th.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $161.00
stop loss @ 151.00

BUY the 2014 Jan $180 call (UNP1418a180)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $200 call (UNP1517a200)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/08/13


Visa Inc. - V - close: 182.75

Comments:
06/30/13: I am tempted to change our strategy. Visa delivered a nice bounce off its 50-dma and is challenging its all-time highs. However, the broader market looks weak. The next two months are not normally a bullish period for stocks. More aggressive investors may want to buy calls anyway if Visa can close above $186.00. For now we will stay with the buy-the-dip entry strategy.

Earlier Comments:
The newsletter is suggesting investors buy calls on a dip at $171.00. Our long-term target is $198.50.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $171.00, stop loss $164.50.

BUY the 2014 Jan $180 call (V1418A180)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $200 call (V1517A200)

06/16/13 I am adjusting the stop loss to $164.50 from 164.75.

Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/11/13


Western Digital Corp. - WDC - close: 62.09

Comments:
06/30/13: WDC produced a $5.00 bounce from its Monday, June 24th lows to its Thursday highs. Yet the rebound has stalled at new technical resistance at the simple 20-dma. I am not convinced the correction is over.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we wait and buy a dip at $55.00. The Point & Figure chart is currently forecasting a long-term target of $82.00. We'll start with a stop loss at $52.25.
If triggered our target to exit the 2014 calls is $65.
If triggered our target to exit the 2015 calls is $75 on WDC.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $55.00, stop loss @ 52.25

BUY the 2014 Jan $65 call (WDC1418a65)

- or -

BUY the 2015 Jan $70 call (WDC1517a70)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/18/13