New Watch List Entries

ASML - ASML Holdings

HFC - HollyFrontier

NS - NuStar Energy


Active Watch List Candidates

AEM - Agnico Eagle Mines

EBAY - eBay Inc.

MA - MasterCard

MPC - Marathon Petroleum

PFE - Pfizer Inc.

UPS - United Parcel Service


Dropped Watch List Entries

KMB and NKE have been removed.



New Watch List Candidates:


ASML Holdings - ASML - close: 92.39

Company Info

ASML is in the technology sector. The company, based in the Netherlands, makes semiconductor processing equipment. The stock has lagged the broader semiconductor index but shares are bouncing off their long-term bullish up trend and could try to catch up. The point & figure chart has recently turned bullish and forecasts a $110 price target (that could grow higher).

There are some concerns that expectations are currently too optimistic for the chip equipment companies. One of ASML's rivals, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), recently lowered its capacity over growth concerns.

I am suggesting small bullish positions on ASML if shares can close above $95.25. If triggered our long-term target is $119.50.

Breakout trigger: Wait for ASML to close above $95.25
then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $89.00.

BUY the 2015 Jan $100 call (ASML1517a100) current ask $6.00

- or -

BUY the 2016 Jan $105 call (ASML1615a105) current ask $10.00

Remember, small positions to limit risk!

Chart of ASML:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/23/14


HollyFrontier Corp. - HFC - close: 49.05

Company Info

HFC is in the basic materials sector. The company is an oil refiner and produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and similar products. The company's latest earnings report was bullish with HFC beating estimates on both the top and bottom line. Many investors believe that HFC will continue to benefit from the WTI/Brent oil spread, which is even wider for HFC since its refineries sit so close to some of the shale-oil formations currently being drilled in the U.S.

Shares of HFC are currently hovering just below resistance near the $50.00 level. The stock has seen some intraday spikes into the $50.50-50.75 area. I am suggesting we wait for HFC to close above $50.50 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $47.40. Our target is $59.50. More aggressive investors may want to aim higher since the point & figure chart is forecasting at $65 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for HFC to close above $50.50
then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $47.40.

BUY the 2015 Jan $55 call (HFC1517a55) current ask $2.90

Chart of HFC:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/23/14


NuStar Energy - NS - close: 53.78

Company Info

NS is in the basic materials sector. The company is part of the oil storage and pipeline industry. Shares have spent a good chunk of the last four months consolidating sideways after a big rally from its 2013 lows. Now shares are on the move again and look poised to break out past key resistance at the $55.00 level. If the market turns more volatile NS could benefit from investors seeking safety in high-dividend plays. NS currently offers an 8% dividend.

I am suggesting investors buy calls if NS can close above $55.25. If triggered our target is $64.50. More aggressive investors with a longer time frame may want to aim higher since the point & figure chart is targeting an $87 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for NS to close above $55.25
then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $51.75.

BUY the 2015 Jan $55 call (NS1517a55) current ask $3.10

Chart of NS:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/23/14


Active Watch List Candidates:



Agnico Eagle Mines - AEM - close: 32.36

Comments:
03/23/14: Gold prices reversed sharply last week. If this pullback continues it could pull below support in the $30-32 area and we may end up removing AEM as a candidate. Currently we are on the sidelines waiting for a breakout higher.

I am suggesting investors wait for AEM to close above $35.50 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $31.75. If triggered our long-term target is $48.50. Currently the point & figure chart is bullish with a $46 target.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $35.50
then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $31.75

BUY the 2015 Jan $40 call (AEM1517a40)

- or -

BUY the 2016 Jan $45 call (AEM1615a45)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/16/14


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 56.96

Comments:
03/23/14: EBAY managed a small gain for the week but the action was bearish with shares falling under a bearish pattern of lower highs. We are waiting for a breakout higher.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we wait for EBAY to close above $60.25 and buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $54.75. If triggered our long-term target is the $70 - $80 range. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $74 target. Our $79 target might be a little too optimistic if you're buying the 2015 calls but a move $70 would still be profitable.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $60.25
then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $54.75

BUY the 2015 Jan $65 call (EBAY1517a65)

- or -

BUY the 2016 Jan $70 call (EBAY1615a70)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/14


Kimberly Clark Corp. - KMB - close: 110.16

Comments:
03/23/14: KMB continues to struggle with resistance near the $111-112 zone. I am growing concerned that KMB may not move fast enough for us. Tonight we are removing KMB as a watch list candidate.

Trade did not open.

03/23/14 removed from the watch list. suggested entry was a close above $112.00

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/23/14


Mastercard Inc. - MA - close: 75.99

Comments:
03/23/14: MA looked like it was finally building up enough steam to breakout past resistance near $80.00. Then shares reversed hard on Friday after news hit that a "U.S. appeals court upheld the Federal Reserve's controversial rules for debt card 'swipe fees' on Friday, reversing a lower court's decision to throw them out" (source: Reuters). Federal regulators ruled back in 2011 that the cap on swipe fees would be 21 cents per transaction.

Friday's drop could be a one-day, knee-jerk type of reaction so I'm not ready to give up on MA just yet but Friday's decline has created a bearish reversal pattern at resistance.

Earlier Comments:
The stock recently held a 10-for-1 stock split on January 21st, 2014. During the market's January sell-off MA corrected from $85 to $72.50. The bounce has stalled beneath resistance in the $78-80 zone but the point & figure chart is still bullish with a $89.00 target.

I am suggesting investors wait for MA to close above $80.00 and buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $74.75. Our long-term target is $99.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for MA to close above $80.00
then buy calls the next morning with a stop at $74.75.

BUY the 2015 Jan $85 call (MA1517a85)

- or -

BUY the 2016 Jan $90 call (MA1615a90)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/14


Marathon Petroleum - MPC - close: 90.69

Comments:
03/23/14: MPC suffered some profit taking last week. More aggressive investors might be tempted to buy calls on this dip to potential round-number support at $90.00.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting investors wait for MPC to close above $95.00 and then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $89.65. It is possible that the $100.00 mark could be round-number resistance but we are setting our long-term target at $115.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $95.00
then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $89.65

BUY the 2015 Jan $100 call (MPC1517a100)

- or -

BUY the 2016 Jan $110 call (MPC1615a110)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/16/14


Nike, Inc. - NKE - close: 75.21

Comments:
03/23/14: Shares of NKE weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a -5.1% plunge and a breakdown below its simple 50-dma on Friday. Now you know why I suggested investors wait until after we see the market's reaction to NKE's earnings report before initiating positions.

NKE actually beat Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line. Unfortunately during the conference call NKE management warned that currency fluctuations would negatively impact results in 2014 and they warned that China would be weaker than expected.

It seems unlikely that NKE will meet our entry point requirement with a close above $81.00 any time soon and we don't want to buy a dip at current levels so we're removing NKE as a candidate.

Trade did not open.

03/23/14 removed from the watch list, suggested entry was a close above $81.00

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/16/14


Pfizer Inc. - PFE - close: 32.18

Comments:
03/23/14: Trading in PFE has been a bit rocky the last couple of weeks but the overall trend is still higher. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

Currently I am suggesting investors wait for PFE to close above $33.00 and then buy calls the next morning.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is the $38-40 zone. I prefer the 2016 calls but I'm listing both the 2015s and 2016s.

Breakout trigger: Wait for PFE to close above $33.00
then buy calls the next morning with a stop at $29.75.

BUY the 2015 Jan $35 call (PFE1517a35)

- or -

BUY the 2016 Jan $35 call (PFE1615a35)

03/09/14 adjust the entry trigger to a close above $33.00 (instead of $32.75)
03/05/14 PFE closed @ 32.75 but not above $32.75, no trade.

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/02/14


United Parcel Service - UPS - close: 96.86

Comments:
03/23/14: UPS spent last week consolidating sideways in the $96-98 zone. The CEO of FedEx (FDX) just said last week that this winter was the worst winter ever for his company. They've suffered 20 storms so far and the delays, the overtime, the snow removal and deicing, and extra effort due to adverse weather has cost them $125 million. UPS is likely in the same boat but the stocks for both companies didn't move much. The results of a bad winter may already be priced into these stocks.

We are still waiting for a breakout higher. I am suggesting investors wait for UPS to close above $100.25 then buy calls the next day with a stop at $94.75. Our long-term target is the $115-120 zone.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $100.25
then buy calls the next day with a stop loss at $94.75

BUY the 2015 Jan $105 call (UPS1517a105)

- or -

BUY the 2016 Jan $110 call (UPS1615a110)

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/09/14