New Watch List Entries

MU - Micron Technology

TM - Toyota Motor Corp


Active Watch List Candidates

AAPL - Apple Inc.

BAC - Bank of America

CELG - Celgene Corp.

GD - General Dynamics

GS - Goldman Sachs

IP - International Paper


Dropped Watch List Entries

RTN has graduated to our active play list.

DIS has been moved to new plays.



New Watch List Candidates:

Micron Technology - MU - close: 35.95

Company Info

MU is in the technology sector. The company is part of the semiconductor industry. They make memory chips. According to a company press release, "Micron Technology, Inc., is a global leader in advanced semiconductor systems. Micron's broad portfolio of high-performance memory technologies—including DRAM, NAND and NOR Flash—is the basis for solid state drives, modules, multichip packages and other system solutions. Backed by more than 35 years of technology leadership, Micron's memory solutions enable the world's most innovative computing, consumer, enterprise storage, networking, mobile, embedded and automotive applications."

The semiconductor space has been a strong performer this year with the SOX semiconductor index up +20% in 2014. That outperforms the NASDAQ's +14.7% and the S&P 500's +11.8% gain. MU is beating all of them with a +65.2% rally in 2014.

The company has been beating Wall Street's earnings and revenue estimates all year long. Their most recent report was MU's Q4 results that came out in September. Analysts expected a profit of $0.81 on revenues of $4.15 billion. MU delivered $0.82 as revenues soared +48.7% to $4.23 billion.

Management then raised their Q1 revenue guidance into the $4.45-4.70 billion range, which was above analysts' estimates. They also announced at $1 billion stock buy back program. Following its results and the buy back news the stock has seen several price target upgrades. Many brokers have price targets in the low to mid $40s. One firm has a $60 target.

Technically shares look very bullish with a breakout past major resistance in the $35.00 area. More aggressive investors may want to buy calls now. After a sharp two-week rally I am hoping for a little pullback. Broken resistance at $35.00 should be new support. We will set a buy-the-dip trigger at $35.10.

Buy-the-dip trigger at $35.10, stop loss @ 29.40

BUY the 2016 Jan $40 call (MU160115c40) current ask $4.10

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart of MU:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/30/14


Toyota Motor Corp. - TM - close: 123.13

Company Info

TM is considered part of the consumer goods sector. The company is a major automotive manufacturer. Headquartered in Japan, TM was founded back in the 1930s. The company now has sales around the globe.

The company led the industry in greener cars with their Prius model of electric-gasoline hybrids. Now they're leading the industry again with a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. TM unveiled the Mirai, which means "future" in Japanese, as is the first zero-emission vehicle for consumers. The vehicle will go from 0 to 60 MPH in 9 seconds. It has a range of 400-430 miles. The only emission is water vapor.

The Mirai will not be a big seller to start. TM only expects to sell a few hundred units next year. The challenge is the infrastructure so consumers can refuel the hydrogen fuelcell. It will take a few years to really catch on but they're going to get help from various government agencies. The state of California is one example. California hopes to have 1.5 million zero-emission cars on the road by 2025.

I'm not suggesting bullish positions on TM for the Mirai. Hydrogen fuelcell vehicles are not even a drop in the bucket for the global auto market. What should capture investor attentions is the combination of TM's strong sales combined with a central bank stimulus efforts.

TM has already seen strong sales this year. They reported their first half results on November 5th. TM beat estimates and raised their revenue guidance. Falling gas prices boosted sales of SUVs. TM is also seeing sharp growth in China. This past October TM saw their sales in China soar +27% from a year ago. That is on top of a +26% increase in September and a +9% jump in August. New estimates suggest TM is poised to outsell most of its rivals in the U.S. in November too, including big competitors like General Motors, Ford, and Nissan.

TM's secret weapon could be the currency devaluation by the Bank of Japan. The Japanese government is desperate to jump start their economy and avoid deflation. They have launched a massive QE program that is crushing the value of their currency. The yen ended the week at multi-year lows. This is an advantage for a company like TM who exports a lot of their product.

I do have to mention the risk of recall headlines. It seems that the big automakers are being super careful after seeing the Ford fiasco in the last couple of years. Now companies are recalling vehicles all the time. Right now the entire industry is dealing with a defective Takata airbag recall. The top ten automakers all use Takata airbags so it's something that will affect everyone. There is always the risk of another company-specific recall that could hurt TM.

Technically shares of TM have been showing strength and outperforming many of its peers. Shares have actually broken out past resistance near its 2014 July and early November highs. I would be tempted to buy calls now. However, I'd like to see a little more follow through. Tonight I am suggesting we wait for TM to close above $124.00 and then buy calls the next day.

I will warn investors that the prior highs near $135 and $138 could be potential resistance but the point & figure chart is very bullish and forecasting a long-term target of $160.00.

Breakout trigger: Wait for a close above $124.00
Then buy calls the next morning with a stop at $114.75.

BUY the 2016 Jan $130 call (TM160115c130) current ask $6.55

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Chart of TM:

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/30/14


Active Watch List Candidates:



Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 118.93

Comments:
11/30/14: It may be wishful thinking that we might buy a dip in shares of AAPL. The stock has been exceptionally strong from the October low. AAPL is now up six weeks in a row and up about $25.00.

We didn't want to chase AAPL at $108 and we definitely do not want to chase it at $119. Tonight we will raise our buy-the-dip entry trigger from $108.00 to $111.00. I'm leaving the stop loss at $98.90.

Earlier Comments: November 2, 2014:
Love it or hate it AAPL always has Wall Street's attention. It has a cult-like following. The company's success has turned AAPL's stock into the biggest big cap in the U.S. markets with a current valuation of more than $633 billion.

The company is involved in multiple industries from hardware, software, and media but it's best known for its consumer electronics. The iPod helped perpetuate the digital music revolution. The iPhone, according to AAPL, is the best smartphone in the world. The iPad helped bring the tablet PC to the mass market. The company makes waves in every industry they touch with a very distinctive brand (iOS, iWork, iLife, iMessage, iCloud, iTunes, etc.) and they've done an amazing job at building an Apple-branded ecosystem. Now they're getting into the electronic payments business with Apple Pay.

The company's latest earnings report was super strong. AAPL reported its Q4 (calendar Q3) results on October 20th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.31 a share on revenues of $39.84 billion. The company delivered a profit f $1.42 a share with revenues up +12.4% to $42.12 billion. The EPS number was a +20% improvement from a year ago. Gross margins were up +1% from a year ago to 38%. International sales were 60% of the company's revenues.

AAPL's iPhone sales exceeded estimates at 39.27 million in the quarter and up nearly 16% from a year ago. The only soft spot in their ecosystem seems to be iPad sales, which have declined several quarters in a row. The company hopes to rejuvenate its tablet sales with a refresh of the iPad models. More importantly AAPL management raised their Q1 (calendar Q4) guidance as they expect revenues in the $63.5-66.5 billion in the quarter. Recent news would suggest that AAPL might deliver an incredible 50 million iPhone 6s in 2014. That's not counting their new iPhone 6+.

The better than expected results and bullish guidance sent the stock to new highs. The rally has created a quadruple top breakout buy signal on its point & figure chart that is currently forecasting at $133 target. Yet we do not want to chase AAPL here. The stock is up $12 from its October low. We do want to be ready if shares see a pullback.

Tonight I am suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger to buy calls at $103.50 with a stop loss at $98.90.

Buy-the-dip trigger @ $111.00, stop loss @ 98.90

BUY the 2016 Jan. $120 call (AAPL160115c120)

11/30/14 raise the buy-the-dip entry trigger to $111.00
11/16/14 raise the buy-the-dip entry trigger to $108.00
Adjust the strike price to the 2016 Jan $120 call.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/02/14


Bank of America - BAC - close: $17.04

Comments:
11/30/14: It was a quiet week for shares of BAC. That's actually two weeks in a row that BAC hasn't moved much. The big picture hasn't changed. We are still on the sidelines and want to see BAC close above $17.55.

Earlier Comments: November 09, 2014:
BAC is one of the biggest banks on the planet. They provide banking services to individuals, small business, big business, institutions, and governments. They have over 5,000 locations and over 16,000 ATMs.

The company's most recent earnings report was October 15th. They managed to beat Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line with a loss of only $0.01 per share on revenues of $21.43 billion. The loss was due to a $5.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, part of the larger, record-breaking $16.7 billion settlement over the mortgage scandal dating back to Countrywide and the financial crisis of the last decade. BAC actually made $168 million for the quarter and that's including the huge $5 billion settlement payment but when you account for the $238 million it paid in dividends the final profit number was negative (-$0.01).

Legal issues have been a black cloud for the banking industry for years and a shadow over BAC but following the $16.7 billion settlement with the DoJ the worst is probably behind it for the big bank. While the industry may still see volatile headlines about future fiascos BAC management has been building up their litigation reserves to handle it.

Banking stocks as a group should help lead the market higher as the U.S. economy continues to improve. When the Federal Reserve finally starts raising interest rates next year it should also be another tailwind for the banks.

Tonight I am suggesting we wait for BAC to close above $17.55 and buy calls the next morning with a stop loss at $15.35. More conservative investors may want to wait for BAC to close above previous resistance at $18.00 as an alternative entry point.

trigger: Wait for BAC to close above $17.55 and then buy calls the next morning with a stop at $15.35.

BUY the 2016 Jan $20 call (BAC160115c20)

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/09/14


Celgene Corp. - CELG - close: 113.69

Comments:
11/30/14: Biotech stocks have been back in rally mode the last couple of weeks. CELG's bullish breakout past the $110.00 level could be used as an entry point for more aggressive investors. I'd rather not chase it here. We will raise our buy-the-dip entry point from $97.50 to $102.50. However, we are willing to adjust it if we see CELG pullback and find support near $109-110.

Earlier Comments: November 2, 2014:
We previously had CELG on our LEAPStrader newsletter but got stopped out during the market's extreme volatility and correction in the first half of October. The bullish story on CELG has not changed. We'd like to reopen bullish positions again. However, CELG is extremely short-term overbought. The biotechs have been showing major relative strength and soaring to new highs. I'm suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger at $100.00 with a stop loss at $94.90.

I am listing our previous play description below with an update on its most recent earnings report.

(Earlier play description)
If you're looking for opportunity it's hard to beat some of the biotech names. CELG is one of the strongest. According to their press release, "Celgene Corporation, headquartered in Summit, New Jersey, is an integrated global biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through gene and protein regulation."

What makes CELG so attractive is the company's pipeline. Developing drugs is an expensive business. A lot of older firms are buying other companies for their pipeline. Meanwhile CELG is developing a very strong pipeline. You can view the company's current progress on this webpage.

CELG is also growing earnings. The company's Q2 report was July 24th. Wall Street was looking for a profit of 89 cents a share on revenues of $1.84 billion. CELG beat estimates with a profit of 90 cents and revenues rising +17.1% to $1.87 billion. Earnings per share are up +18% from a year ago. Management raised their guidance for 2014. Wall Street was a little disappointed with the guidance because analysts are more optimistic.

The latest earnings report was October 23rd. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.94 on revenues of $1.95 billion. CELG beat estimates with $0.97 as revenues grew +18.4% to $1.98 billion. Management then raised their EPS and revenue guidance above Wall Street's estimates.

Multiple firms raised their price target on CELG following the Q3 results and the P&F chart is now forecasting at $157 target. We do not want to buy calls here. Wait for a pullback.

Buy-the-dip trigger @ $102.50, stop loss @ 89.00

BUY the 2016 Jan. $120 call (CELG160115c120)

11/30/14 raise the buy-the-dip trigger from $97.50 to $102.50
11/16/14 Adjust the buy-the-dip trigger from $100.00 to $97.50. Move the stop loss from $94.75 to $89.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/02/14


General Dynamics - GD - close: 145.36

Comments:
11/30/14: GD is little changed on the week. Shares spent the last few days churning sideways in the $144-146 zone. GD is now up six weeks in a row but upward momentum might be stalling. We are waiting for a correction with a buy-the-dip at $132.00 but I'm open to raising that trigger if we see GD pullback and then bounce.

Earlier Comments: November 2, 2014:
GD is another really strong stock that we got stopped out of during the sharp market pullback in the first half of October. Since then shares of GD have not only recovered but have sprinted to new highs.

GD is considered part of the industrial goods sector. The company is a huge aerospace and defense company. They have four significant segments: aerospace, combat systems, information systems, and marine systems (ships and submarines). The defense industry in the U.S. has been saddled with significant budget cuts due to the 2011 sequestration deal that will shave $500 billion from U.S. defense spending from 2012 through 2021. The industry has managed to thrive in spite of these budget cuts.

GD has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates five quarters in a row. The company is also seeing margin improvement. Their Q2 report was on July 23rd and it not only beat analysts' estimates but management raised their EPS and revenue guidance for 2014. Multiple analysts raised their price target on GD following this announcement.

We see a similar trend with the latest earnings report on October 22nd. GD reported their Q3 results with a profit of $2.05 per share. That beat analysts' estimates by 14 cents. Margins continued to improve, up 50 basis points from the same quarter a year ago. GD's backlog of orders soared +56% to $74.4 billion in the quarter. Management then raised their 2014 earnings guidance above Wall Street's estimate (again).

The stock has been in rocket-mode with shares in a non-stop rally from $115 to $140. We do not want to buy calls here. GD is very short-term overbought. Tonight I am suggesting patience and a buy-the-dip trigger at $132.00 with a stop loss at $124.75.

Buy-the-dip trigger @ $132.00, stop loss @ 124.75

BUY the 2016 Jan. $140 call (GD160115c140)

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/02/14


The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - GS - close: $188.41

Comments:
11/30/14: The momentum in GS has definitely stalled with the stock drifting flat to down over the last three weeks. We have been looking for a dip to $185.00. Yet given GS' relative weakness we may want to aim lower. Tonight we'll move the buy-the-dip trigger to $182.00.

Earlier Comments: October 26, 2014:
Goldman is in the financial sector. They are considered part of the national investment brokerage industry. Goldman was founded in the year 1869 and is headquartered in New York. The company provides investment banking and management services to corporations, other financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth individuals. The lion share of their business is institutional client services where GS makes markets in fixed income, equities, currencies, and commodities.

The company's recent earnings report was strong. GS announced its Q3 results on October 16th. As of the first nine months of 2014 their revenues were up $1.4 billion above the same period a year ago. Management has managed to boost profits by reducing costs. A strong mergers and acquisitions market in 2014 has helped drive GS' results as the company is gaining market share.

Looking at their recent results Wall Street expected a profit of $3.21 per share on revenues of $7.8 billion for the quarter. GS delivered $4.57 per shares, a +59% increase from a year ago. Revenues soared +25% to $8.4 billion. GS saw $20 billion in net inflows bumping client assets to $1.15 trillion.

The company does have a habit of crushing analysts' earnings estimates so the market wasn't that surprised. The stock actually sank on these results but the initial weakness is over and GS is rebounding.

The stock experienced a -10% correction from its early October high to the mid October low. The recent breakout past resistance near $180 and all of its key moving averages is encouraging. I would be tempted to buy calls right now. However, I suspect the market might see some mild profit taking after last week's big rally.

Tonight I am suggesting a buy-the-dip entry point at $180.50 with a stop loss at $174.50. Our long-term target is the $220-230 zone.

Buy-a-dip at $182.00 with a stop at $174.50

BUY the 2016 Jan $200 call (GS160115c200)

11/30/14 move the buy-the-dip trigger to $182.00
11/09/14 adjust buy-the-dip trigger from $183.50 to $185.00
11/02/14 adjust buy-the-dip trigger from $180.50 to $183.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/26/14


International Paper - IP - close: $53.82

Comments:
11/30/14: IP is relatively unchanged for the week. The stock has found new overhead resistance at its simple 10-dma, which is short-term bearish. That's okay for us since we want to see a pullback into the $50-51 area.

Earlier Comments: November 16, 2014:
IP is part of the consumer goods sector. According to a company press release "International Paper (IP) is a global leader in packaging and paper with manufacturing operations in North America, Europe, Latin America, Russia, Asia and North Africa. Its businesses include industrial and consumer packaging and uncoated papers. Headquartered in Memphis, Tenn., the company employs approximately 65,000 people and is strategically located in more than 24 countries serving customers worldwide. International Paper net sales for 2013 were $29 billion (which included our now divested xpedx business)."

The company has been facing a lot of headwinds this year but they still managed to beat Wall Street's earnings estimates three quarters in a row. Their most recent earnings report was November 4th. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.89 per share on revenues of $6.0 billion. IP reported a profit of $0.95 with revenues beating estimates at $6.05 billion.

The company saw significant improvements in its operating profits in all three categories: industrial packaging, printing papers, and consumer packaging. Management expects a surge in packaging orders in the fourth quarter.

Wall Street loves the company's focus on delivering value to shareholders. IP is almost done with their $1.5 billion stock buyback program they announced in September 2013. They also raised their dividend 14% from $1.40 to $1.60. This is IP's third consecutive fourth quarter double-digit dividend increase. The stock now sports a 3.0% yield.

IP's CEO said they were looking seriously at converting part of their business into a master-limited partnership (MLP). This would be another shareholder friendly step as MLPs do not pay federal tax if the return most of their cash to shareholders.

The stock's current rally has produced a buy signal on the point & figure chart with a long-term target at $73.00. This month has seen shares of IP break out to new multi-year highs.

IP is currently up five weeks in a row. We do not want to chase it here. Instead we'd like to buy long-term calls on a dip. The prior highs in the $51 area should offer some support. Tonight I'm suggesting a buy-the-dip trigger at $51.00 with a stop loss at $47.90.

Buy-a-dip @ $51.00, start with a stop at $47.90

BUY the 2016 Jan $55 call (IP160115c55)

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/16/14