Despite the market drop the stocks on the watch list are rising. I had to add another upside entry for JACK. I would bet we are triggered on Nvidia this week and even Bristol-Myers has stopped declining.
New Watch List Entry:
No New Watch List Entries
Stocks Dropped from Watch List:
No Watch List Drops
Active Watch List Play Descriptions:
BMY - Bristol-Myers Squib - Company Profile
BMY shares held at $55 all week and could be preparing for a rebound. Just in case I added an upside entry trigger at $57.50 using the $60 LEAP Call.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers chemically-synthesized drugs or small molecule, and biologic in various therapeutic areas, including virology comprising human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV); oncology; immunoscience; cardiovascular; and neuroscience. Its products include Baraclude for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection; Daklinza and Sunvepra for the treatment of hepatitis C virus infection; Reyataz and Sustiva for the treatment of HIV; Empliciti, a humanized monoclonal antibody for the treatment of multiple myeloma; Erbitux, an IgG1 monoclonal antibody that targets and blocks the epidermal growth factor receptor; Opdivo, a fully human monoclonal antibody for non-small cell lung cancer, renal cell cancer, and melanoma; Sprycel, a multi-targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor for the treatment of adults with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia; Yervoy, a monoclonal antibody for the treatment of patients with metastatic melanoma; Abilify, an antipsychotic agent for adult patients with schizophrenia, bipolar mania disorder, and major depressive disorder; Orencia to treat rheumatoid arthritis; and Eliquis, an oral factor Xa inhibitor targeted at stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation, and the prevention and treatment of venous thromboembolic disorders. Its products pipeline includes Beclabuvir, a non-nucleoside NS5B inhibitor that is in regulatory review for the treatment of HCV; BMS-663068, an investigational compound that is being studied in HIV-1; and Prostvac, a Phase III prostate-specific antigen to treat asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.
BMY is NOT a one-drug company. On August 5th, the stock fell from $75 to $62 on news a clinical trial on Opdivo for lung cancer without chemotherapy had ended without the desired results. More than $20 billion in market cap was erased from the stock because of one trial on a drug that is already successful in lung cancer with chemotherapy and in treating renal cell cancer.
This was not a case where all the patients in the trial died. It was simply a trial that did not work. Specifically this particular trial was hoping to prove the drug would be successful in patients with more than 5% of the PD-L1 protein in the tumors and had not received chemotherapy. This is a very broad trial. They hoped to be able to avoid the expensive chemotherapy process and the very painful side effects. It did not work in that application BUT it has already been approved for use with chemotherapy. The competitor drug from Merck, Keytruda, was tested in a smaller subset of patients with more than 50% of the PD-L1 protein. If BMY had copied that trial for Opdivo, the drug may have worked.
Bristol-Myers has a very strong portfolio of cancer drugs, HIV drugs, etc. Revenue is NOT going to change because the drug had never been prescribed for this specific patient demographic. Nothing changed financially for BMY. They had hoped a successful test would have added billions to annual revenue several years into the future but that was just wishful thinking.
There is an existing Phase 3 trial with Opdivo in conjunction with the drug Yervoy for PF-L1 positive patients. If that trial is successful, the Checkmate-026 trial will be immediately forgotten.
BMY is a good company. There is no material reason for a $20 billion market cap haircut. I have change the recommendation to buy a dip to strong support at $50. The decline is continuing and any further market weakness could give us a great entry point.
DIP Entry: With a BMY trade at $51.00
Buy Jan 2018 $55 LEAP Call, estimated to be $4.15. Initial stop loss $44.85
UPSIDE Entry: With a BMY trade at $57.50
Buy Jan 2018 $60 LEAP Call, estimated to be $5.15. Initial stop loss $44.85
JACK - Jack in the Box - Company Profile
We were stopped out of JACK on the big market crash on September 9th. I put it back into the watch list with a potential entry point at $91. Unfortunately, it rebounded all week to close just under $100 again. I modified the dip entry trigger to $93 and I added an upside trigger at $101.50.
KeyBanc reiterated a buy and raised the price target from $100 to $110.
Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants and Qdoba Mexican Eats fast-casual restaurants primarily in the United States. As of August 10, 2016, it operated and franchised approximately 2,250 Jack in the Box restaurants in 21 states and Guam; and approximately 600 Qdoba Mexican Eats restaurants in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada. The company was founded in 1951.
Jack shares are up 29% year to date after the company reported Q2 earnings of $1.07 that beat estimates by 20 cents. Revenue rose +2.6% to $368.9 million. Same store sales rose 1.1% and the average check rose 3.5%.
They will end 2016 with an additional 20 Jack in the Box stores and 50-60 new Qdoba locations. The company is refranchising many of its stores and believes it can raise earnings by 65-78 cents through cost reductions achieved by shifting company owned stored to new franchisees. Management expects same store sales o rise 2.5% to 3.5% for Jack stores and 4% to 5% for Qdoba stores.
Earnings Nov 21st.
Shares rallied to $99 and the 2015 high on the Q2 earnings. They held at that level for four weeks. The market crash on Sept 9th pushed the shares down to $96. I am targeting a new entry at $91.
JACK does not have LEAPS so I am using the March $100 call, which is the longest dated option series available.
With a JACK trade at $93.
Buy March $100 call, estimated at $5.25, No initial stop loss.
Short March $110 call, estimated at $1.90, No initial stop loss.
With a JACK trade at $101.50
Buy March $110 call, estimated at $5.50, No initial stop loss.
Short March $120 call, estimated at $1.95, No initial stop loss.
NVDA - Nvidia - Company Profile
Nvidia shares are refusing to decline to our target entry point of $56. If they do not decline soon we could see some anxious traders jump the gun and start buying is at the current level. I added a new entry trigger for a breakout entry. It would not be my preferred position but we cannot always get what we want.
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a visual computing company worldwide. It operates in two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor. The GPU segment offers processors, which include GeForce for PC gaming; Quadro for design professionals working in computer-aided design, video editing, special effects, and other creative applications; Tesla for deep learning, accelerated computing, and general purpose computing; and GRID for cloud-based streaming on gaming devices. The Tegra Processor segment provides processors that integrate a computer onto a single chip under the Tegra brand name; DRIVE automotive computers, which offer supercomputing capabilities; and tablet and portable devices for mobile gaming under the SHIELD name. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, system builders, motherboard manufacturers, add-in board manufacturers, and retailers/distributors.
Q1 earnings rose 46% to 33 cents and beat earnings by a penny. They hiked full year revenue guidance as well as the current quarter. Tor Q2 they raised the forecast to $1.35 billion that was above analyst estimates at $1.28 billion. Gaming revenue was up 17% to $687 million but all areas of effort saw significant gains. They recently released a new graphics card that is twice as fast and 40% cheaper than the card it is replacing.
Nvidia's Graphics Processing Units or GPUs have become more than just video chips. They have become supercomputing processors and can be packaged in large groups to parallel process monster datasets and computations that would have taken weeks with conventional chips. They are truly revolutionizing the processor industry.
The focus on Artificial Intelligence or AI, a lot of companies like Google and Amazon are turning to GPUs to handle the monster amounts of data they collect every day. Facebook already uses Nvidia M40 GPU accelerators to power its Big Sur machine learning computers. Those NVIDIA GPUs were specifically designes to train deep neural networks for enterprise data centers, and the company says they are 10-20 times faster than other network computers. Nvidia said their GPD powered machine learning computers can help train networks new things in just a few hours that would take days or weeks with less powerful systems.
The new P100 GPU is 12 times faster than the prior version and can provide more performance than "several hundred computer nodes" and up to eight P100s can be interconnected to provide previously unheard of computing power. The chips in the GPUs contain more than 15.3 billion transistors each and the largest chip ever built at 16 nanometer technology. That is twice as many as on Intel's biggest chips. The P100 delivers more than 10 teraflops of performance. One teraflop can process one trillion floating-point instructions per second and the P100 can do 10 teraflops or 10 trillion calculations per second.
The COSMOS weather forecasting application runs faster on the P100 than the 27 servers, running twin multicore processors each that were previously tasked with the project. Intel makes commodity processors for the millions of PCs and servers in the world. Nvidia is light years ahead of Intel in technology. Nvidia's data center revenue increased 63% in Q1.
Q2 earnings were a blowout and shares rocketed to a new high. We closed the prior position at $63.11 and I am putting a $56 entry trigger of this Watch List recommendation. We may never get triggered but it we do it should be a winning position.
With a NVDA trade at $57
Buy Jan 2018 $60 LEAP Call, estimated price $8.00, no initial stop loss
Sell short Jan 2018 $80 LEAP Call, estimated price $5.00, no initial stop loss.
Estimated net debit $3.
Breakout entry point.
With a NVDA trade at $63.50
Buy Jan 2018 $70 LEAP Call, currently $8.35, no initial stop loss.
Sell short Jan 2018 $90 LEAP Call, currently $3.00, no initial stop loss.
Net estimated debit $5.35.
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