Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  3:51:58 PM
GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 158 +3.85% ... I do see a 3-box reversal higher here, but will also note that last reversal came to the spread-triple-bottom of $176, then reversed lower. Recent "sell signal" was a double-bottom at $162 and this might be first place to look for resistance near-term.

May help trader short or long-term assess risk/reward near-term and try to think of what may unfold.

I don't want to be accused of "rear view mirror driving," but trader that may have been trading the bond YIELD / MSFT scenario that didn't see YIELD break to lows today, may have stopped out of MSFT when it broke yesterday's high. That would have been what a short-term bear in MSFT may have done.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  3:45:49 PM
Some MSFT bears "freaking out" a bit.... I'm thinking perhaps they over leveraged as I don't even see a simple little 3-box reversal yet. Link

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  3:42:25 PM
Readers Write: "I am sitting here waiting for an entry point. I am also keeping an eye on the 18 million dollar purchase of the SPX March 1150 puts last Friday by someone with a lot more money than me.

Suddenly it struck me that I feel like the Ferry Master who ran the ferry in the movie Outlaw Jose Wales. The Ferry Master had ferried Jose Wales and his wounded partner across the river to escape Captain Red Legs and his men. As soon as Jose Wales disembarked from the ferry, Captain Red Legs showed up on the other side.

The Ferry Master quickly returned to the other river bank and picked up Captain Red Legs while Jose Wales sat on the other side resting. As the ferry loaded approached mid stream with Captain Red Legs and his men crowded aboard, they noticed Jose Wales still quietly sitting on the opposite river bank. Jose Wales stoic pose confused all who were on the ferry and the Ferry Master remarked “What in the [heck] is he doin?

Well, I feel as confused as the Ferry Master when I watch the market move higher and the eat into the 18 million dollar play the guy made on Friday. The guy who bought the puts either knows something, or isn’t paying attention to his account. Are you as confused as I am? [B]"

Didn't you love it when Josey Wales (Clint Eastwood) calmly waited for his chance to thwart the adversary by shooting their ferry loose to the Missouri River currents using his Sharps .45-70 govt? Classic!

As for the volume of Mar 1150 puts last Friday, I saw huge volumes sold and bought along with what looked to possibly be some false trades. This is only a trade filter to use when all else aligns, and perhaps the shorted/sold (bullish) puts were from a broker or institution front-running buy programs.

More importantly, big pros in this business have simple methods of hedging loss on such options plays unknown to most retail traders. When they're right they make a ton of money. When wrong, they still make real good money on the short option side.

Hence, index option block trades make a good trade filter but some nuances exist to be aware of.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  3:40:35 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) when a trade goes against me so soon after initiated, never looking to double down at this point. I think resistance near $63 and calling it quits at $64, which would be doubl-top buy signal on p/f chart. As such, only time I'd "double down" and buy more of put and round to full position is if I can get some type of "inside day" or something to get me to put more money at risk.

200-day up at $64.47 and 50-day MA rolling at $65. Both may serve as technical resistance in future. Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  3:35:02 PM
Micosoft (MSFT) $59.80 +3.13% .... tons of e-mail. Please read this update, which is from Friday. If you're looking for stop levels, then this will help you! Link

As you can see... so far, 10-year YIELD has not broken it's retracement support and MSFT is bounceing from support. If subscriber's don't like the heat to $63, then next couple of levels I see are 02/02/02 high of $60.36 or retracement of $61.36.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  3:09:56 PM
Big burst out of the mid-day coils for sure... long term charts turning bullish and upside plays should get the nod from here. I'll personally buy all dips that emerge later this week IF weekly/daily chart signals remain in bullish shape ahead.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  3:00:55 PM
Indexes finally broke free of midday congestion and are making the customary 2:00pm (and forward) directional move. I'll personally watch this one pass with no interest or concern for tagging along. When chart conditions align for high-odds play once again, I'll be in prevailing trend direction with the right amount of capital.

Don't know when nor which way that will be right now, be we'll see it align and unfold in due time!

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:58:05 PM
Biotech (BTK.X) 486.49 -0.22% ... have clawed their way back as broader-market bullishness prevails. Lots of work to be done to get this group moving, but ability to rally back from -2.5% loss may be something that was needed for rally to hold through the week.

Was thinking this morning.... if biotechs don't get a move on, then rally for NASDAQ may be short-lived.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:44:40 PM
Awesome subscribers! Subscriber noting that Dorsey/Wright showing that Tranportation is "bear alert" at 63.15% and rather defensive from higher level.

Perhaps this goes with thoughts on not averaging down in a CNF June 35 call. Would take reading of 70% to get back into "bull confirmed" and any break in bullishness above 74% could see bullishness build to 1997 levels of 90%?

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:39:28 PM
Important news in the wings? Subscriber wondering if there's some type of important news coming?

I'd say Wednesday's Greenspan testimony in front of Congress is "news in the wings." Some believe that near-term economic data will swing his testimony. With today's stronger than expected existing home sales number stronger than expected, then first card dealt was an "ace" and could have Mr. Greenspan upbeat in testimony.

Tomorrow we should get consumer confidence.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:35:20 PM
PMCS It can be days like today that bears are thankful they shorted/put weak stocks like a PMCS that haven't "caught fire." Often times gives the bear time to think, lower stops, just in case broader market/sector bullishness gets overdone.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:33:28 PM
PMC Sierra (PMCS) $16.02 +0.12% ... stock really lagging the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) $536 +5.34%. Trader still short/put PMCS from earlier alert on bearish traingle perhaps locking in 1/2 position on bearish trades, just in case sector gets too bullish and "tail of the snake" breaks free. Link

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  2:31:53 PM
Traders with a longer term view than one or two sessions should note that the S&P indexes and NDX are trying to turn bullish in weekly/daily chart time frames as mentioned earlier this morning. The Dow is already moving higher in bullish chart signal fashion from its last trip near 9,800 level.

Looks like the next bear-market rally is struggling to find footing and bias is higher unless something emerges to kick the legs out from under it once again.

Remember, we are in the strong midst of a bear market right now until clearly broken, which hasn't happened in two full calendar years now. Upside play attempts from oversold should be given less time to work and greater consideration for caution than downside plays near resistance using long term charts to trade.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:30:12 PM
APA negativity always looking for something negative that goes against price action. April Crude Oil futures (cl02j) $20.65 -1.99% and March Nat. Gas Futures (ng02h) $2.31 -5.47% not all that bullish today so need to see improvement along the way for APA bulls.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:26:59 PM
Apache (APA) $52.70 +2.24% .... subscriber noting 01:00 Update and wondering if APA is good play considering market history bullish for Oil and Natural Gas Indexes, and APA produces both oil and natural gas, and stock recently gave spread-triple-top Link at $52?

Hmmm ... so much bullishness and that silly looking reverse head/shoulder pattern. I can't find too many reasons to be bearish can you?

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  2:17:25 PM
Rockwell Collins $22.86 -0.6% .... calculation of bullish count needs to be done in two parts.

One is those X's that are in the $0.50 box area from $13.50 -$20. That's 14 X's so ((14*3)*0.50) = 21

Then we count the X's from $21-23 in the $1 box scale and get 3 X's thus, ((3*3)*1) = 9

Then add the 21 + 9 from calculations and add it to the $13.50 (base of that column of X) to get $43.50

Just remember the "meaningful" price movement theory of point and figure charting and the $0.50 box scale versus the $1 box scale. Link

As ridiculous as $43.50 seems, it was also ridiculous to think the bearish vertical count on Enron to $3 was realistic. Sometimes you just never know.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  1:20:27 PM
My short play attempt got stopped for miniscule loss and I'm flat for the day unless S&P breaks below 1096.00 before the close. I have zero interest in the upside unless/until intraday chart signals go oversold and bounce from there. I also have no interest in downside plays unless SPX 1096 is taken out to break sideways chop at 1100 level today.

A "nothing" session where avoiding loss is far more important than gambling for gains!

  Mark Phillips   2/25/02,  1:13:14 PM
Biotechs More weakness in the sector today with bitg losses from the likes of HGSI (-14%), VRTX (-7%), CELG (-5%), and the list goes on. It seems that the catalyst for the weakness today is a Thomas Weisel Partners downgrade of HGSI to Market Perform from Buy due to the firms expectations that one of HGSI's lead drugs has a low chance of becoming a significant revenue generator.

This has the BTK index trading down in the $475 area again. Recall from Eric's recent comments that he would be getting interested in the BBH (Biotech HOLDR) again from the bullish side when the BTK got back into the $450-475 area...and here we are.

I'm not ready to play the BBH from the long side quite yet, but it is starting to look interesting again. I'd like to see another bounce from the $115 area before getting my feet wet. Thomas Weisel Partners downgrades to MKT PERFORM from Buy based on view that one of co's lead drugs (mirostipen) has a low chance of becoming a significant revenue generator. Believes concerns about the drug will remain over HGSI's share price in the near term.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  12:46:54 PM
For short-term plays I entered short 1/2 position at S&P 1100.00 and then the other 1/2 at 1101.75 when the break above 1102.00 failed to hold. Current stop is at 1102.00 which would b.e. the second 1/2 and kick out miniscule loss on the first 1/2 capital played today.

If this entry dies at the stop, I'll most likely sit out the remainder as nothing but noise exists in the indexes right now. I've watched the S&P 1100 level get chopped to pieces all morning and chart signals are mixed across all time frames. Good day for doing little or nothing with indexes and sectors.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  12:34:29 PM
Schlumberger (SLB) $59.17 +3.17% ... oil service stock getting a boost higher today. This too was one pointed out as "spread-triple-top" on Friday at $57. Short-term traders getting some pop on these patterns. Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  12:26:49 PM
Lottery Play! in Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL) $23.19 +0.82% ... defense sector has been "hot" recently and this is one stock I think overlooked. Was spun off in July of last year and stock got hammered. Now near where listed on NYSE and I like these "newer issues" that get back to their listing price. No overhead supply above $23.88.

The April $25's (COLDE) are offered $0.80. Point/figure chart is bullish, with vertical count of $43.50. Link

NEVER overleverage on Lottery plays, but suitable for subscribers that have stayed disciplined and booked some profits from other trades and account doing good. Only small amount of capital and looking for 500% type gains and willing to risk the entire investment. Thus, NO OVERLEVERAGING!

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  12:19:47 PM
PACCAR (PCAR) should also mention current vertical count is bullish to $81. Link

May also make some bullish scenario from GM's higher guidance this morning? Sector action very important and good to have some bullish news coming from a big auto-maker.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  12:14:44 PM
Alcan (AL) $40.33 +1.66% ... for example, we pointed this one out before the spread-quad-top at $39. This one was from a morning upgrade by some brokerage firm that seemed to make sense with what we were seeing in copper prices. The upgrade was based on the belief of AL making some good strides in productivity and they had just implemented a bunch of productions cost increases to help productivity that had been a drag on earnings. Firm thought combined higher aluminum prices and soon to decline Cap-ex spending would have stock bullish. Point/figure chart gave bullishness at $39. Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  12:09:22 PM
Is there anyway to scan for patterns? Unfortunately not. Only way to find them perhaps is to look at www.stockcharts.com and their p/f patterns, but these are patterns that were already triggered. Link

The other alternative is to look at some charts. Get those annual subscription book out that you got with your annual renewal and identify some potential patterns, then set some alerts. We try and point out some that we see developing ahead of time too.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  12:05:49 PM
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) $69.91 +2.34% ... subscriber doing some work over the weekend and found a "potential" triple-top at $69. Stock traded it today and looks strong. Link

I have stock in the "autos & parts" group. According to Dorsey/Wright this group is "bull confirmed" at 72%. This is "overbought" status, but trader can trade bullish PCAR. Would have stop at $64.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  12:00:10 PM
Numerous readers write to point out that current levels in the market are resistance, time to go short is now. That's a fine individual decision and very well may catch a short-term top. I personally would try a 1/2 position short right here and another if the indexes broke down below current intraday congestive noise, but that's not for everyone.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  11:57:00 AM
Deere (DE) $47.82 +1.89 ... Male deer have horns. Common term is "bucks." I like the April $50's (DEDJ) for $1.30 for aggressive bulls.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  11:51:35 AM
Stock to watch SanDisk (SNDK) $14.60 +1.51% ... every now and then I'll see a chart pattern, then hear something that peaks my interest.

When getting dressed this morning I had towel stuck in my eary, but had radio on. Heard something on financial talk radio about digital cameras and how (I think he said 17%) of households currently had digital cameras.

I've got one and all the little disks are made by SanDisk (flash memory). Add to that, I bought a new laptop and had to buy one of their little flash card readers in order to get the pictures downloaded to the computer.

Big triangle forming and thinking bullish, but needs to trade at $16.50. Check out the p/f chart. Link

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  11:49:29 AM
All intraday 60/30 min chart signals are trapped in overbought extreme and look weak from here. Price actin has failed a few tests to break above early session highs. I'll try downside S&P plays when the SPX breaks below today's congestion, probably on a break below 1096.00 SPX (cash index) as a general point of reference.

OEX, SPX or DJX puts would all work just about the same on any break as all charts are similar. No huge move is expected and could be risky with W/D time-frame charts in oversold extreme so players beware accordingly!

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  11:41:45 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $58.65 +1.15% ... thoughts haven't changed. Will take a trade at $63 to change my thoughts.

Short-term? ... yes stock could rally to retracement resistance of $61.36. Retracement support as discussed in great detail along with 10-Year YIELD is at $57.57 for MSFT. Link

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  11:36:03 AM
All weekly/daily chart stochastic values are on the cusp of turning bullish reversals up from oversold extreme, but it's very early. The last time we saw this was two weeks ago when markets failed at the last recent highs.

Oscillators are best used to call price moves WITH a prevailing trend (if any) instead of against. We are firmly entrenched in a bear market right now and upside play signals are more likely to fail than downside signals. Therefore, waiting to take upside plays when any upside move has clearly begun works far better than trying to buy the very bottom of any turn.

This applies to traders with plans of holding plays longer than one or two sessions. Intraday charts are pegged in overbought and I would only test the upside if/when long-term charts are bullish AND intraday charts reach oversold extreme and reverse in bullish fashion from there.

Traders who complain that this is all too confusing are free to simply enter at will & take chances from there. Many of us who swore off doing that forever already know how that ends up over time!

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  11:32:40 AM
Existing homes subscriber pointing out that you don't need a CAT to construct an existing home sales.

I made correction, but maybe I shouldn't have. In Beverly Hills, CA, we often see somebody buy a house there, level it to the ground, then build a new house on the same lot.

Subscriber said he was getting ready to do that with recent puts he bought on Storage Tech (STK) lottery play! (grin).

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  11:23:13 AM
CNF Inc. (CNF) $30.82 +1.34% ... subscriber asking if he should average down in June 35 calls.

I'm not a big proponent of averageing down in any trade, unless I established 1/2 position and then thought potential for pullback to more attractive level.

I'm still bullish on CNF, and Dow Transports (TRAN) are trying to break free of that downward trend dating back to May 1999. TRAN trading 2,767 +1.52% and looking like sector to remain bullish in.

So... I'd average down if I bought just 1/2 position in CNF, but if subscriber bought full position to begin with, then let her ride.

CNF Chart Link

Dow Transport Chart needs a trade at $2,850 on $50 box and that may also be place to watch. If it trades $2,850, then trader may round to full position in CNF. Trying to get the sector on the right foot as it still rather range-bound on $50 box. Link

  Mark Phillips   2/25/02,  11:14:07 AM
Subscriber asking for current thoughts on Eastman Kodak (EK)...LEAPS readers will recall that I've been bearish on this stock lately due to the deteriorating fundamental picture and it is currently listed on our Watch List with an entry target of $30-31. Well, here it sits right in that area. Subscriber wanting to know why we haven't taken an entry on that one yet. Simply put, the stock just hasn't shown the weakness we're looking for...Yet.

In fact, given the recent strength in the stock, I'm inclined to hold my fire until after the weekly Stochastic tops out in overbought territory and begins to roll from there. While it could occur near current price levels, I wouldn't be surprised now to see it work back into the $32-33 area before the bulls run out of steam. It could even go high enough to fill that gap from late October.

Remember that a price target is just an expected action point that must be confirmed by corresponding action in the oscillators before we take action. For now, EK is in the bulls' control -- but I don't expect it to last. Wait for that weekly oscillator before taking action -- it makes risk much easier to manage.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  10:44:50 AM
I expect to scale into S&P downside plays if/when all 60/30 min chart signals turn bearish ahead. What price levels those might be are not clear right now. The top may be in place already (intraday) or considerably higher from here.

I'll totally ignore price levels and wait for price action to turn decidedly bearish and attempt entry right then. That action will miss the exact turn by several index points but I'm not interested in tips of market turns, just high-odds chunks from the middle of any potential move.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  10:40:59 AM
One of the most popular questions I get from readers is always which direction the next big market move will be. I guess the answer these days is, who says there will be any directional moves at all?

Chart signals and patterns are mixed and all over the map right now across various indexes and sectors. This suggests the markets will probably remain in a big, sideways trading range bouncing up & down like we saw last week.

One key to surviving and then profiting under those conditions is to buy support and sell resistance. Breakouts commonly fail after a quick trap-fake. Then be sure to exit the play at pre-defined loss or modest gains as they occur.

Traders playing both calls & puts last week who held too long let profits turn to loss, which frustrates the bejabbers out of our lil' human emotions. Then we get mad, double down and try to get even with the market. By gosh, we'll teach that market a lesson!

Precisely the point from which the market runs us over, buries our trading account and proves to us who is mightiest of all in this game. Ever been there yourself? Eventually we won't let it happen again, but painful lessons indeed most susceptible to during sideways, choppy markets.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:40:36 AM
Didn't see this until today I turned the page in my calendar from Stock Trader's Almanac... and what do I find?

Bullish March sectors are Airlines (XAL.X), Natural Gas (XNG.X), Oil (OIX.X) and Forest/Paper (FPP.X).

Bearish March sectors .... ugh! Biotech (BTK.X).

Will try and cover this for 01:00 Update

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:25:31 AM
Good observation by Mark at 10:15 ... BRCM is the "tail of the snake" and should be monitored. For bulls best chances, we like to avoid the tail, until we see head really moving forward and thus give some energy or motion to help the tail pull free.

Once the head gets moving, then the stocks in the tail have a chance to move higher and follow those in the head.

The reason we "smart bulls" like to trade in the head is just in case there's something wrong that is "stock specific" at the tail. You know what usually comes out the tail end of a snake. (grin)

That's right! A snake sheds it's skin from the head and the skin sheds toward the tail end.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:21:40 AM
Dow Industrials 10,075 +1.10% ... getting upside here. This is level ABOVE 02/14/01 high and now sets stage for potential challenge of post 09/11 high to 10,300. Today's trade at $10,050 was BULLISH TRIANGLE Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:18:48 AM
Existing Home Sales I had this number scheduled for release tomorrow morning. However, today's 16.2% jump is 6.04 million pace, which is much stronger than expected of 5.19 million rate and setting a new month record.

  Mark Phillips   2/25/02,  10:15:17 AM
I think it is interesting that Jeff should mention shares of BRCM this morning. This is one that is garnering my attention again this morning. As Jeff pointed out, the stock has achieved its bearish count on the PnF Chart Link and is continuing to drift lower this morning, even with all the indices in the green. Heck, even the SOX is trading nearly 2% to the upside, but no bid for BRCM.

The stock continues to show relative weakness in contrast to its resilience up until the first of the year. $30-31 area looks like meaningful support, and this will be the real test. If stock holds this level, with oscillators bottoming across all time frames, it could set us up for a solid rally.

However, breaking below $30 will make the stock vulnerable to the $20 level and a potential retest of the September lows. Not a place to be wagering your lunch money in my opinion. Short side is hard to get excited about with the oscillators already buried -- a relief rally could come at any time.

But I'm not thrilled about trying to game the long side right here either due to the stock's recent relative weakness. That weakness could very easily result in more price declines over the near term. Maybe Jim had it nailed in the Editor's Plays this weekend...wait for a breakdown below support and then play the downside. While that may be the best play currently, I think I'd rather wait for a better chart setup or look for a more favorable target right now.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:09:05 AM
Purrrrrr Caterpillar (CAT) $54.85 +4.11% ... need heavy equipment to move the earth to build houses. I have New Home Sales scheduled for release on Wednesday and consensus is for number near 939,000.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:07:52 AM
Existing Home Sales +16.2% in January and this is rather big upside surprise

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:02:47 AM
Meeeeeow! Or shoud we say GRRRRROWWWL! We thought Caterpillar (CAT) $54.44 +3.34% gave a powerful buy signal on Friday. Link

here's today's chart Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  10:00:51 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) $10,039 +0.71% .... technicals here have Dow right at its 200-day moving average. If bears have conviction (personally, I think they're more active in the NASDAQ) then look for resistance here. Yes, there are a couple of NASDAQ tech stocks in the Dow, but not enough to keep this group in check. Link

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  9:57:30 AM
Goodyear Tire (GT) $25.49 +1.39% ... if GM is selling more cars, then those cars need some tires! This is something we mentioned regarding GT back near the $20 level. Stock looks strong and bullish! Link

I still like this one long for longer-term, 1/2 position for now, then add on potential break of bearish resistance. Current vertical count is bullish to $38.50. ** I think stockchart.com p/f chart is wrong.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  9:50:11 AM
Gold Silver Index (XAU.X) $63.84 -1.29% ... looking shortable/puttable here. Friday's rally came right to the upper end of our regression channel and looks lower. Break of Wednesday's low or $62.60 could see decline to risking 50-day MA of $60.00. Just looks like it may have run out of steam near-term.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  9:46:42 AM
Morgan Stanley Hich Tech 35 $427.04 +1.3% ... notable rebound here from retracement support?

I have retracement from 04/19/02 close of $640 to 09/21/01 close of $361. If $361 is 0% retracement, then current "bounce" is coming at 19.1% retracement of $414.80. For aggressive, bull, could play for bounce, and tight stop under Friday's low of $412.

Or use this observation with the larget cap technology stocks.

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  9:46:08 AM
Green screens seven minutes into the open session. Will be interesting to see if the latest rally attempt can stick longer than part of one session at a time. Intraday 60/30 min chart signals are nearing overbought zones but could stay pinned up there for hours or days... no law says the next move is right back down!

Testing downside plays (or any direction) always & forever mandates proper account balance management: no trying to play "catch up" on previous losses by risking bigger and bigger amounts of money to do so. Methodical gains and minimal losses are key to long-term success.

  Mark Phillips   2/25/02,  9:44:19 AM
Great morning all!

I can't tell you what a welcome change it is to NOT begin my day staring at the "Blue Screen of Death", followed by the first of several mandatory reboot cycles.

Needless to say, I'm looking forward to using this newfound stability to actually allow some meaningful commentary in this window going forward.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  9:42:28 AM
Tyco Intl. (TYC) $28.30 +2.90% ... Tyco reporting that U.S. District court, District of New Hampshire, has granted Tyco's motion to dismiss all of the claims asserted in shareholder suits brought against the company and certain of its officers and directors under the federal securities laws. The allegations in the suits were based on criticisms of Tyco's disclosures and accounting practices.

  Jeff Bailey   2/25/02,  9:34:34 AM
Excellent observation, great question Subscriber making note that some stocks like BRCM, QLCG, SUNW have reached their bearish vertical counts. Is this a sign that we're nearing a bottom?

It could be. What "worries" me about thinking that, is that Microsoft (MSFT) $57.99 is not close to its bearish count of $47.

Perhaps this is why I had identified MSFT as a decent looking short on Thursday evening, with the thinking that this could be the stock that acts like the sledge hammer that drives the NASDAQ into submission on the final leg lower.

Of course, stocks don't always reach their bearish vertical counts. On the other hand.... some stocks may exceed their vertical bearish counts.

For now, NASDAQ-100 bullish % is "bear confirmed".

Do you see how a stop on MSFT at $63 Link may correlate with a potential reversal in the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % Link

  Austin Passamonte   2/25/02,  9:08:30 AM
Great Morning!

Pre-market futures are flat as we look to begin the week on a quiet note and build momentum from there. Which way? Not so clear right now. Short term I'll be looking for put plays if/when charts setup as depicted in the weekend Market Wrap. We'll see if longer-term weekly/daily chart signals turn decidedly bullish again AND manage to push upward thru resistance in sustained fashion soon.


Market Monitor Archives