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  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:01:58 PM
Compaq Computer (CPQ) $10.42 -0.28% ... Any more thoughts on shorting CPQ?

Nope... no "new toughts" since Thursday's at 10:44:36 of $10.46. Link

Will note that today's trading was "inside" that of Thursday's. With a stop moved down just above today's high of $10.63, short-term trader is squeezing down his/her stop to help reduce risk in the trade. Stock just "range-traded" today and bear wants a break tomorrow of Thursday's low for a sign of weakness. Link

Also in Thursday's market monitor at 11:36 made note of 60-minute chart interval and 200-pd MA as place for put a stop. That served as resistance near the end of the session and would need to hold for short-term trader. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:40:41 PM
Documentum (DCTM) $24.61 -3.3% ... Hi Jeff, Referencing your MM after-market note on DCTM convertible notes, could you enlighten us as to what this might mean? I'm still a little confused about how to determine whether or not this could be a negative for the stock. The ADLAC play obviously reflected a negative concern, but I'm not sure how to properly evaluate DCTM and thought this would be a good example for you to teach upon. Thanks for the great work you do. My market knowledge has increased an order of magnitude under your tutelage.

I'm still checking the news wires to try and see what the "pricing" was at. So far, DCTM not saying what they're pricing the convertible at. Link

As stated before, secondarys can be bullish or bearish, and you need to be careful if shorting without the "leverage" of the convertible. First thing we need to find out is what "price" the convertible is convertible at (not yet determined). Will most likely be above today's close or somewhere close.

One think I will note is that stock is in bullish trend prior to offering, so not thinking too much as short or bear. Adelphia was in a more bearish trend when it did its convertible, thus perhaps a reason to think bearish and that stock might be shorted to hedge the convertible.

Once we get price that conversion can take place, we then need to know what kind of "dividend" YIELD will be attached to the convertible. If YIELD is rather low (I can get safety in a 5-year Treasury at 4.83%) then I must begin to weigh the risk/reward of a corporate convertible. Let's face it. General Electric (NYSE:GE) convertibles are probably "more sound" perhaps than a Documentum (DCTM) convertible.

What we will do is simply mark today's closing price on DCTM in our "trader's logbook" (remember, we didn't play ADLAC short/put until well after convertible was placed) and make note of the close as a benchmark price. $100 million isn't that big of an offering, but will also take some notes that tonight's upside revenue announcement of $50 million for the quarter may leave little room in the future for any type of revenue shortfall as the company still operates in the red as prior first-quarter loss estimate among consensus is for loss of 10-cents a share.

We really need to find out conversion price and YIELD of the dividend if any.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:06:08 PM
Banc of America Healthcare Conference also begins tomorrow and runs through Thursday. Tomorrow's presenters are CBST, KVA, BEC, CYH, IDPH, ATRX, COO, OCA, GILD, AGN, GB, AHS, AFFX, IPXL, AOT, HCA, MEDI, COB, HCR, WLP, MEDX, BRL, BOL, AHG, ITMN, ELN, EYE, BEV, EXEL, KOSP, ABMD, ADVP, VRTX, TEVA, ANSI, DGX, NPSP, FHRX, IVC, TRI, IMGN, AAII, BMET, CMX, ADRX, HSIC, UHS, MYGN, OMI, HCP.

If a stock you're following is on the list, then you never know just what might happen at some of these conferences or what might be said.

Here's a link to the BofA site for entire list of presenters. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:00:05 PM
The Storage Networking World Conference starts tomorrow. Among others scheduled to present are BRCD, MSFT, IBM, HWP. May partially explain some of the bids found in the storage specific stocks today.

Not a bad looking seminar. Tomorrow, attend a "primer" from 10-12:00, then go golfing from 01:00-06:00 with Storage Tech (STK)! Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  5:17:57 PM
Documentum (DCTM) $24.61 -3.3% ... after announcing convertible offering (see 05:06) company pre-announces that Q1 revenues will be about $50 million, exceeding consensus revenue estimates of $48.5 million. Stock seeing some action at $23.60 (-4% from close) in after-hours trading.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  5:11:27 PM
Luminex (LMNX) $11.44 -8.91% ... Company warning for Q1 (March); sees revenues in the range of $2.2 to $2.7 million versus current consensus estimate of $4.7 million; expects diluted loss per share in the range of $0.20-$0.23 versus consensus for net loss of $0.18. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  5:06:53 PM
Documentum (DCTM) $24.61 -3.3% ... Company announces it intends to offer $100 million of senior convertible notes for sale ($115 million if an option for an additional $15 million is exercised in full), subject to market and other conditions. The notes will be offered to qualified institutional buyers under rule 144A. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  4:07:50 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 608 +2% ... looking around at things. Will note a downward trend from the 01/31/01 high of 763 attached to 05/22/01 rally of 710.78 has extension of that trend recently acting like support of pullbacks.

I've seen and noted similar technicals in the HMO.X and RXH.X. Though different types of sectors, technicals keep showing up. Once these downward trends have been broken to upside and retest of these trend has been make, the upward moves seems to come after some period of consolidation.

I think what may be taking place is that bears simply get more aggressive with closing out some bearish trades.

I begin to think the 615 level from the 03/18/02 high may be near-term bullish action point. Strong short-term moves seem to come from a test of the downward trend, then a relative high being taken out to the upside. Almost as if a bear is saying "Look, I'm willing to play short on hopes that index gets back below old downward trend, but if she doesn't and breaks the relative high to upside, that is my covering point for short."

To help with this observation, pull up the HMO.X and take downward trend from 02/12/01 high of 502, attach to 05/02/01 high of 483. Note extension of downard trend served as support on 12/12/01 and that time. Then when relative high of 450 was broken to upside, off to the races and now trades 512.94 at today's close. If memory serves correct, was rather bullish shares of Oxford Health (NYSE:OHP) $41.62 near the $34 level back then.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  4:00:08 PM
Novellus (NVLS) with VIX rather low at 20.12 right now, not a bad time to consider a May "strangle" in Novellus (NVLS).

The May $55 calls (NLQEK) offered $3.80 and the May $50 puts (NLQQJ) offered $2.75 may be appropriate strangle trade. Should stock break recent range of $50-$55 could make sharp move in direction of the break.

Strangles and straddles are "favorite" option strategy when volatility low and premiums not jacked up that much. Buy some time for "best" opportunity to try and take advantage of future volatility.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  3:54:45 PM
Novellus (NVLS) $53.63 -1% ... may be a stock for bulls to watch for potential trade at $55, which would be triple-top. Should the "leader" Applied Materials (AMAT) $55.31 +1.93% continue to trade bullish, then expecting NVLS to follow.

NVLS on the break higher at $55.

I'm calling AMAT "the leader" because it is the biggest revenue generator in the semi-equipment sector.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  3:36:41 PM
Emulex (EMLX) $34.76 +5.58% ... in 03:00 Update mention technicals here. Stock breaking out of downward regression today. Target for bulls is 50-day just ahead at $37.23 or retracement at $40.89.

Stock tested bullish support and held at $29. Today's trade at $34 gets stock back on a "buy signal" and turns vertical count bullish to $43. Link

Short-term traders can play long here with tight stop under retracement support of $33.42. One of few "tech" I find somewhat attractive at current levels for bulls.

  Leigh Stevens   4/1/02,  3:04:57 PM
INDEX/SECTOR UPDATE: RTH. Austin, who is on vacation this week, discussed the Retail Holding trust stock (Symbol: RTH) in the Index Wrap on 3/28 & 3/29. Updating on this sector, the retail stocks got hit today based on a Merrill Lynch report that was bearish on select retailers.

Austin suggested an ideal entry would be one more touch of the bottom support trendline ("the red line"), per the report at Link

The opening weakness took RTH to under the that support trendline, so no buy was warranted. Those long should consider bailing out on a rebound over the next 1-2 sessions, especially on a move back up 99.00, which would close the downside chart gap which begins below 99.00 -- a bearish gap being a blank area (no trading took place there) between a low of one session and the high of the next or VICE-VERSA, a bullish upside gap that is a space between one session's high and the next session low.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  2:55:40 PM
International Paper (IP) $42.30 -1.65% ... was bullish this stock late last week near current levels. Was reviewing some notes from IP and see I wrote down that company had mentioned over a year ago when Natural Gas prices were higher that cost of Natural Gas was drag on earings. This is fundamental of course, but taking some notes from over a year ago when Nat. Gas was above $5.00.

With Nat. Gas finding a bid again, may be something that MARKET knows about higher Nat. Gas prices longer-term. Could snug up a tight stop und IP just below today's low, or last week's low of $41.20.

P/F chart of IP still quite bullish with first sign of trouble down at $37. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  2:47:19 PM
NASDAQ-100 Trust (QQQ) $36.47 +1.08% hasn't been an easy short in past several sessions. Compares to Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH), a bear in the Q's at least has a bearish vertical count to work with and a downward trend. Even here you're risking a move to $40 on the p/f chart, but a bearish trend nonetheless.

May note that QQQ up 1.08% here while SMH up 2%. What would I rather be short if I had too? QQQ is my answer.

Hmmmm... relative strength chart also confirms that QQQ versus SMH shows QQQ is weak. Would read "sell signal, column of O's" Link

Will make special note that relative strength doesn't tell us anything about direction, but it does tell us or at least guide us where strength lies. Always try and short weakness and buy strength whenever possible.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  2:35:46 PM
Jeff, The semiconductor sector is doing well again today. I've been looking for a good spot to short SMH at and was wondering what you think of doing that at current levels? I'm still trying to learn how to read point and figure charts but I still don't have a handle on it. Thanks again for your time and advice.

Hmmmm.... semiconductors are the "strongest" sector perhaps of broader technology. This makes it rather "tough" sector to try and short. Heck... I've been looking for a pullback in AMAT to get long at $48 for a couple of weeks. Remember that work we did with the 3% box size chart?

There's some things in that type of AMAT strength that give hint this group just has too much bullish sponsorship right now and perhaps a bear is better off looking elsewhere right now. Trying to "pick a top" is tough and I'd prefer to look for some type of rally to short after some meaningful weakness.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  1:26:04 PM
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) $43.02 -3% ... I have little else to add to this one. Stock has achieved bearish vertical count of $42 so ready to lock in gains for bears. Will note that this morning's low of $40.56 pretty close to that found on 10/30/01 of $40.35.

Risk/reward tought to ascertain from here. I have retracement from $71.68 to $13.93, which has 50% at $48.81 (right in here). Bear now risks a rally to 38.2% retracement and rolling 200-day MA of $49.62, while downside to target of $35.99 at 61.8% retracement still in play. From this retracement, current risk/reward about 50/50 so I'd be ready to lock in gain with very tight stop.

I will use the p/f bearish vertical counts as an "excuse" to take a profit from a bearish trade, but very hesitant to use the bearish counts to establish new bullish positions (unless feeling very bullish the stock/sector/market).

With NASDAQ Composite still below its 200-day and 50-day MA's, not that confident in 4-lettered stocks right now.

  Leigh Stevens   4/1/02,  12:54:11 PM
QQQ's Daily high indicating currently at 37.77 is a BAD TICK, that should be corrected - correct intraday high at this moment appears to be 36.17, based on the tick data and intraday charts. Sometimes a tick will be corrected but an incorrect value in the OHLC data will remain, until the exchange refreshes it.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  12:47:07 PM
May Natural Gas (ng02k) $3.51 +6.9% ... on the move today. Will set alert at $3.60, which would be bold move higher for this contract and also be keeping a close eye on potential bullish trade in Hanover Compressor (NYSE:HC) $18.10 +0.61% for action point at $18.50.

For option trader "just starting out" in options trading, I like a May $17.50 call in HC (HCEW) should stock trade the $18.50 level. Target would be for the stock to trade near $23 to lock in a gain.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  12:04:25 PM
SonicWALL (SNWL) (grin) $12.25 -6.25% ... triple-bottom sell today at $12.50. Bearish vertical count of $10.50 Link

Darn it! Pretty close to bearish count. Maybe we shold just monitor this one.

Ask myself... "is this a bear trap at $12.50 on triple-bottom?" May be good observation to help guide a short/put trader in CheckPoint (CHKP) if it does trade its triple-bottom at $27.

Thinking SNWL is "tail of the snake" and if weakness continues and stock tanks to bearish count and no "bear trap" then CHKP better short perhaps.

Notice more bearish MACD and similarity in this group of the technicals. Lots of MACD rolling and crossing below signals. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  11:58:54 AM
Internet Security (ISSX) $21.85 -4.37% ... looks like a stock we'd be rather bearish on. Rally to bearish resistance "first test of bearish resistance can be painful for the bulls" and current vertical count of $11. Link

Good tie-in with bearish count perhaps from RSAS as far as "extreme bearish" vertical count.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  11:55:58 AM
RSA Security (RSAS) $7.40 -17.7% ... missed that spread-triple at $14. Bearish count is $3.50. Link

Observation that there may be some downside to others based on vertical count. RSAS has moved a long way to the bearish, so looking for others perhaps with more downside to bearish counts.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  11:52:23 AM
Check Point Software (CHKP) .... may also note some comments from SG Cowen regarding RSA Security (NASDAQ:RSAS) $7.41 -17.6% and earnings warning there. Cowen mentions CHKP, ISSX, SNWL, ENTU, NET and VRSN as other potential victims.

If memory serves me correctly, we were bearish not too long ago on ISSX.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  11:40:52 AM
Check Point Software (CHKP) $28.99 -4.63% .. Not sure if you meade this call last thursday or another member of OI but it is working. Where is resistance and how far do we ride this one?

Yes, mentioned this one on Thursday as potential short/put near the close. One subscriber reminded me that this is Israeli-based and most likely having negative impact right now.

I have retracecement from $48.37 to $20.70, which has 50% at $34.53, 61.8% at $31.27 (close to bearish thoughts) and 80.9% at $25.98 (bearish target).

P/F chart "says it all" at $27 Link . Stock hasn't traded $27 for some time, dating clear back to October (after red A). If she does, bearish count would be .... $15. I'm not sure what impact Middle-east tensions would have longer-term, but market seems nervous about it.

Would move stop for short down to break-even here and let her rip. Depending on subscribers account and "need for profit" would be aggressive with stop over time (move it down each day).

Those that have some gains and doing better in their account and give a little more room with stop above 61.8% retracement of $31.27. Market makers should be defensive here and looking to firm up some bids near the $26 level of retracement. If order flow is heavy to the sell side, then market maker has to assess risk to $20.70. MACD is negative on daily so still bearish. Link

  Leigh Stevens   4/1/02,  11:22:01 AM
Market Outlook: On the most active list, Nasdaq biggies, Cisco (CSCO) & Sun Micro (SUNW) both have been tracing out apparent bottoms. CSCO needs to clear the 17.50-17.60 level, then close above $18, to suggest potential upside to the $20 area, which is key resistance. Stock looks like its in a trading range between 14-15, on the downside and 20, maybe 22, on the upside. SUNW looks like there is enough buying interest to take it up toward key overhead resistance in the $10 area. Looks like a trading range between $8 area on downside, $12 on the upside -- close over 10 is needed to get there of course. Some key "bellwether" type Nasdaq stocks struggling to form bottoms. This is likely to be a lengthy process however as the better part of this year may be base building, before we get into a sustained bull market upswing again.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:55:32 AM
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $65.09 +0.21% ... good bullish candidate for "strong stock on pullback" should we see technical weakness in Dow Industrials. Would like JNJ on pullback near $60-$61. Link

Relative strength for JNJ is bullish vs. Dow Indu. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:52:10 AM
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $22.36 -3% ... is a short/put candidate among Dow componets. Getting close to bearish resisance on p/f chart Link , but looks to be turning lower on bar chart Link .

Relative strength vs. Dow Indu is weak Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:47:36 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,298 -1% .... after giving triple-top at 9,950 and then bullish triangle at 10,050, has seen some weakness with trade at 10,450. Current vertical count is bearish to 9,900. Perhaps ties in nicely with bullish support trend at 9,950. Link

Would be looking to hedge some Dow components if long should Dow Indu trade the 10,250 level and give another sell signal.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:41:14 AM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 930 -2.52% ... sector weakness today after Merrill Lynch bearish on select retailers. Individual stocks seeing weekness are TOY -4.8%, CC -4.3%, ROST -3.9%, ANF -3.6%

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:37:21 AM
Siera Pacific Resources (SRP) $8.40 -44% ... stock gapped down to news that Nevada Commission has disallowed recovery of $437 million of Nevada Power's requested $922 million in deferred energy costs, deeming some power purchases imprudent. In a pre-market note, Merrill Lynch says it is stunned by the severely punitive order. Merrill downgrading SRP to "neautral" from near-term "buy." Cuts FY02 est to $1.30 from $1.65 and FY03 to $1.35 from $1.75. Believes ensuing S&P downgrade of co's debt to below investment grade puts SRP's solvency at risk.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:33:05 AM
Intl. Game Technology (IGT) $61.21 -1.82% ... keeping an eye on this name as potential short/put candidate. According to Dorsey/Wright and Associates, "Gaming" sector close to reversing into "bearl alert" status.

I've lost my "feed" from www.stockcharts.com so can't show charts in market monitor right now. Trade at $60 for IGT would be double-bottom and turn vertical count bearish to $49. Bullish support still below at $47. Thinking that $58 is sign of "real trouble" and noting that 200-day MA is rolling at $58.42.

  Leigh Stevens   4/1/02,  10:29:13 AM
Support & Resistance - Indexes: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) > Near resistance = top of hourly chart gap at 1440; next resistance at 1460 - a close is needed over this area to achieve a bullish breakout and suggest a next up "leg" - don't hold your breath for this in the near-term; near support 1420-1423; 1422 is 62% retracement; if this area gives way, we may be looking at an eventual "round trip" back to the 1360, or even to the 1330 area, the starting points of the late-Feb./early-March rally. Key will be 1420 area as potential support.

QQQ > Key near support = 35.50; next lower support looks like 35, then 33.80-34.00. 33.60 looks like an area to buy, if reached. Absent that, stay on short side or stay away; near resistance > 36.00, then 36.75; major resistance at 38. Close over 36.50-36.75 is needed to get something going on the upside.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  10:14:12 AM
ISM came in at 55.7% for February, which was better than consensus estimates of 54.6%. February's reading marked the first time in 18 months that the index showed the region's manufacturing economy expanding.

The new orders index continued to show strength, rising to 65.3% from 62.8% which is good news for manufacturing sector.

In other economic news, construction spending rose 1.1% in February, better than the 0.6% consensus.

  Leigh Stevens   4/1/02,  10:13:17 AM
Support & Resistance - Indexes: DJIA (INDU) > near support - 10,320, then 10,280; 10,200 area looks like best support; near reistance > 10,400; 10,475 is toughest current resistance, in area of prior hourly lows when DJIA built its recent top.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:55:25 AM
Stellent (STEL) $8.56 -10% ... Stock down after reducing Q4 revenue forecasts to a range of $14 to $15 million versus consensus of $26.9 million. STEL cited unanticipated delays in IT spending decisions. Link

Vertical count is bearish to $8.50, so stock has achieved that objective here this morning.

Pacific Crest cautions that content management vendors such as Documentume (DCTM) $24.22 -4.8% and FileNET (FILE) $16.17 -5.37% could be pressured by Stellent (STEL).

  Leigh Stevens   4/1/02,  9:54:42 AM
Support & Resistances - Indexes: S&P 500 (SPX) > Near support - 1138-1140; next support, 1130-1132; 1120-1125 is most significant chart support; 1124 is a 50% retracement of the last big upswing (2/22-3/19). SPX resistance > 1148-1150. 1150 must be overcome to suggest a next up "leg"; OEX > Near support = 570-572, at the prior lows and in area of the 50-day moving average; next likely lower support looks like 565; near resistance at 583, at the 200-day moving avg.; close over 580 is needed to get a decent rally going; everything looks lower into tomorrow. Don't FOOL around with the long side at this juncture. No FOOLISH portfolio managers to bail you out with their buying unlike last week.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:49:27 AM
Freddie Mac (FRE) $63.58 +0.33% ... Company announces that its 2001 financial information statement includes new in-depth disclosures about the use of derivatives, risk-counterparties, and other risk management practices. Specifically (and this is likely due in part the the February Wall Street Journal article critique of its derivative disclosure), the document shows that as of the end of 2001, the simultaneous default by all of FRE's over-the-counter deriviative conterparties would result in a loss of just $69 million, which is less that one week's worth of total 2001 earnings.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:44:25 AM
Hanover Compressor (HC) $18.19 +1.11% ... stock opens rather "quiet" and gives us a chance to set alert at $18.50, which would be triple-top. This will be early action point. Again... since stock is still below trend, will only be looking 1/2 position to begin with. Relative strength improving, but want to play it a little safe. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:40:51 AM
Adelphia Communications (ADLAC) $12.81 -14% ... stock getting hit hard to downside at open. Now working off retracement of $32.94 to $5.03. Stop for Jan $20 puts (OFYMD) now goes just above 61.8% retracement of $15.69. Next target of retracement is 80.9% at $10.36. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:34:10 AM
Energy both Light, Sweet Crude (cl02k) $26.98 +2.54% and Natural Gas (ng02k) $3.33 +1.58 higher this morning as tensions rise in Middle-east.

Will be watching Hanover Compressor (NYSE:HC) $17.99 closely this morning as described late Thursday evening as a way to play the natural gas price rise. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:29:58 AM
Amkor Technology (AMKR) $22.31 ... only three trades have taken place in pre-market, but one early trade was for 313,100 shares at $22.31. Stock made a move higher on Thursday to new relative highs. On March 21, Bears Sterns upgraded AMKR to "buy" from "attractive" with price target of $35 saying that the company should be among the first and fastest company's in semi-equipment to recover due to 1) gains due to geographical expansion (China and Japan) 2) share gains, 3) a more rapid outsourcing, 4) gains to newer and more expensive packaging types, and 5) recapturing pricing lost during downturn. Link

  Leigh Stevens   4/1/02,  9:29:21 AM
It's showtime! ON THIS DAY in 1987, Steve Newman became the first man to walk solo around the world. No foolin’! The 15,000-mile trek took him four years and untold pairs of shoes to complete. Steve's chief complaint: his tired "dogs". In honor of this momentus event, take a hot dog to lunch.

Market Update: Based on the selling that is showing up this am, looks like the S&P 500 (SPX) has failed at minor resistance at Thursday's intraday high in the 1148 area, which is a return to prior hourly lows (previous support, once broken, "becomes" resistance) - next stop looks like 1140.

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:21:49 AM
Digital River (DRIV) $14.81 ... stock really getting hit hard to downside at $8.90 (-39%) following earning's warning. DB Alex Brown downgrades to "buy" from "strong buy" and lowers price target to $13 from $26. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/1/02,  9:16:31 AM
Happy April Fool's Day! Stock futures are lower this morning and have been edging lower as the opening bell approaches.


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