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  Jeff Bailey   4/6/02,  3:26:38 AM
Fantastic! Subscriber writes back... Jeff... just saw your post on the mm. FYI, CBOE site shows that 360 contracts of calls as well as puts of the April $570 strike were traded

Aha!... I thought about checking the puts, but I would have had to tear myself further away from deep analysis in the CYC.X chart and market wrap for PI.

somebody may be playing a straddle and just looking for volatility with the VIX.X down so low.

Makes sense technically. CYC.X came right into upward trend yesterday and bounced higher today. Right at the 50-day MA too.

Trader probably looking for some type of move from that trend. If she breaks lower, then "crush" if she rebounds from trend, then groups been strong and who knows what could happen above 600 when all overhead supply is gone.

Good research from a subscriber.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  10:03:19 PM
Interesting Index Trade 360 contracts were traded in the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) at the April $570 call (CZYDN) at $8.00.

May be interesting in that it came just after the CYC.X tested a rising 50-day MA and upward trend on its bar chart. Link

Either the buyer of the call thinks $578 or better by April expiration. Or the seller of the call thinks lid at $570-$578 and lower.

If we see violation of Thursday's lows (560) then we perhaps get feel that "institutional bet" and winner was to the downside.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:20:14 PM
I can't let this one go without mentioning

I was reviewing a market wrap I wrote for PI on March 12th when I mentioned that Nortel (NT) looked a little "toppy" at $5.65. The comments were in relation to where that stock was trading in relation to Lucent (LU) as LU had just come within 10-cents of testing an all-time low. Since that time, both NT and LU have violated those lows.

What hit me tonight was just previous to those comments, I had profiled a Bullish play in Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR) the day before. When NT's debt was downgraded that night (MARCH 12) I immediately advised bulls to snug up a stop in the marginally profitable bullish trade in JNPR as it closed that night at $13.57 and had traded an "inside day."

Since then, both NT and LU broke their 52-week lows and not by "just a little either." What I find compelling is a put play in Juniper (JNPR) in the April $10's (JUXPB) offered $0.30. 10 contracts might be appropriate which would put the trader at RISK OF $300.00 + Commission , but I think any type of "burp" from Juniper before earnings are scheduled for release on April 11th (after the close) or any comments in a conference call after earnings about a slow outlook, could have the stock trading the 52-week lows near $9 or lower.

Look at these three telecom-equipment networkers and see if you see the scenario.

LU breaks 52-week and September 18 lows on 03/13/02 Link

NT breaks 52-week and Sept. 21 lows on 03/19/02 Link

JNPR has not broken 52-week lows of $8.90 set on 09/27/02 (not yet anyway). Link

Maybe it is just me, but NT seems to have followed LU lower. Is it a coincidence that NT, LU and JNPR all three found past 52-week lows in mid-to-late September. But so far, only NT and LU have violated their lows? Is business that much better at JNPR? It may be worth $300 to find out.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  4:33:10 PM
Retek (RETK) $25.64 +10.70 ... sources saying that company may indeed be doing OK. Revenue model is subscription based and may be doing well despite other sector weakness.

see 02:29:19 comments

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  4:24:23 PM
Coca Cola (KO) $52.18 +0.3% ... Am long KO at 51.12 SL at 48.40. Any thoughts when to move stop up

Shorter-term trader should probably snug a stop just under the $51.50 level. No sense risking to $48.50, in the current market environment.

Could easily take a retracement from $42.37 low and "fit" the 50% at the 09/05/01 close of $50.46 (this lines up nicely 2-more times at that level) and get a 61.8% retracement at $52.36 (just at current levels) and 50% at $50.46.

A short-term trader wants to challenge the stock with a tight stop, otherwise assess risk to $50.46 or $48.55.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  2:52:44 PM
Oakley Inc. (OO) $17.73 +2.78% ... day trader still playing the stock should at least move a stop up under the 50-pd MA on the 5-minute interval chart which is now at $17.60. This would result in small profit but loss for day trader should not be experienced.

Yesterday at 03:33 Link we thought stock might rally into the $17.50-$18.00 range short-term. Today's high of $17.90 pretty close and that too may have been a short-term accumulation point for an institution looking at nipping away at a bullish position.

Day trader does well to lock in gain if they don't like to hold over weekend.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  2:45:27 PM
Cummins (CUM) trade the scenario.... per subscriber's comments of 01:01:23.

A trader that "believes" or at least takes into consideration those comments could do this to perhaps reflect that observation.

Pretend this is a dirty trick by the market, and that Cummins (CUM) that makes a lot of diesel engines for the big rigs, isn't really going to see any pickup in business.

Take a retracement bracket from the low close of $29.31, then fit the 50% retracement right where the stock broke major horizontal resistance at $40 and shot like a projectile higher out of a cannon. The "result" would be 61.8% at $42.43, 80.9% at $46.38 and 100% up at $50.33.

The thinking for a bull that is long the stock from previous commentary then snugs a stop under Wednesday's low of $45.35, which would also be just below the 80.9% level.

This allows us to pretend that "smart money" still thinks something bullish for CUM at this point and allows trader to play the bullishness.

Then if all market participants agree earlier subscriber comments and has been to bullish on the future for the transports, then the stop as outlined should be a short-term protector.

Devil's advocate of course is saying, the poor bear that was shorting at $40 has to be wondering what gives?

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  2:35:23 PM
Cummins Inc. (CUM) $47.58 +1.23% ... previously mentioned this one in commentary and subscriber notes new 52-weeker toay at $48 (by 2 cents). Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  2:33:19 PM
Dow Breadth positive with 19 up and 11 down. Gainers are MMM +6.56%, AA +3%, CAT +3.9%, DIS +3.45%.

Weakness today in BA -2%, IBM -2%, SBC -1.62%

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  2:29:19 PM
Retek Inc. (RETK) $26.22 +13.21% ... I've taken retracement from $40.72 to $11.80. This looks to match levels traded in recent months.

What it gives me is 19.1% at $17.23, which is relative low on 02/21/02, 61.8% at $29.67 on 03/11/02, which looks a bit like a "bull trap" on the chart. 38.2% is $22.84 and this is level where stock stopped near last night's close. Now 50% right here at $26.26.

I'm thinking of waiting until Monday, or watch the stock here, but if I could get a "pop" near the $29, level, the look at short-term April $30 put and want stock to drop quickly back to 50% retracement of current levels or better yet, right back to "BA's" upgrade and 38.2% retracement of $22.84.

Using p/f chart and longer-term upward trend at this point to advise caution and not overleverage in a bearish trade.

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  2:22:12 PM
Market Update - DJIA: The only index or average worth talking about in terms of where the action is. DJIA popped back up from the low at the downtrend line that the average broke out above yesterday. The rebound has encouraged the bulls as it makes it look like the DJIA can again challange intraday highs at 10335. Support was seen again on the approach to the 10,200 area -- a close ABOVE 10,260 is above minor resistance. Next higher resistance is 10,375; then, 10,500.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  2:20:55 PM
Retek (RETK) $26.03 +12.39% ... getting a boost from Banc of Americ upgrade fromLink

Stock looks "neutral" to me. Still in upward trend, but recent triple-bottom sell at $25 has vertical count bearish to $16.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  2:11:14 PM
Cardinal Health (CAH) $67.83 -3.21% ... only "negative" news I see from old wires is March 12 "rumor" that company may be a bidder for Caremark (NYSE:CMX) $19.50 +1.98%.

Lots of subscribers wondering why the weakness today. All I can think is that maybe somebody thinks that "merger Monday" may have an announcement coming?

Here's the chart of Caremark (CMX) Link

If CAH buying, it doesn't seem to look like they would be buying a stock/company that is out of favor and has a lot of problems.

I'd be more concerned if they were "buying" Bristol Myers (BMY) Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  1:01:23 PM
Sources not confirmed, but a subscriber's note Jeff, I am in the financing of this type of business (trucking transportation). I have yet to see and uptick in this business. The first thing that starts to happen when business improves is that the trucking companies start to replace their older units. I have yet to see this happen. That is probably why Paccar got downgraded a little while back.

I think we profiled this one as bullish back at the $69 level and quad-top. Snug a stop to break-even and stick with the trend, but if she breaks and subscriber is on the ball, then more defensive for Paccar (NASDAQ:PCAR). Food for thought at least.Link

Bull in transports is thinking... "hey, the guy still has a job!" The markets tend to trade the future. Maybe things are just about to turn for the positive?

Lay out your scenarios, bullish and bearish, then listen to the charts. What does the market seem to think. Where is it placing its bets?

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  12:55:03 PM
MARKET UPDATE - Dow (INDU): MMM up enuf to give the Dow average a 40 point boost, has not been ENUF without more help from the gang. The rally fadded when the drag from IBM , Intel, Boeing (tech & manufacturing, etc) started dragging the DJIA south. Levels now are UNDER the key 10,260 Dow level -- what I saw yesterday in my Option Investor wrap up from yesterday. By the way, the cyclicals that have been leaders look like they may have topped. Can my lower Dow target of 10,100 be next?

Market mavens are watching 10,200 as they always look at the even "hundred" levels. But I don't see support in this area so much as at lower levels.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:51:27 PM
Jeff, did you notice that TNX was lower before the open yet the stock futures were up. My thoughts were that people were selling into the rally to put back into bonds.

We've got a great group of subscribers, and some smart ones too that are watching treasury YIELDS. This is why I mentioned YIELD being lower this morning (see 09:20) and thought for traders selling into the weekend and being a bit defensive toward stocks.

Subscribers are really putting these relationships together and working hard, getting results.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:42:50 PM
OEX On Wednesday, I profiled the OEX as bearish on the break of Leigh's 570 support level. Looking good now and 550 looks like good potential. Link

Bar chart looking more bearish and 50-day MA looks like good resistance trend for bears. Little help from MACD as it has crossed below zero and trending lower. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:38:36 PM
Hmmmm. The 09:20 comments from prior to market open may have saved some bulls from getting suckered in at the open.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:37:28 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 562.16 ... just looked at the 5-minute chart. Little bugger rallied right to Leigh's past level of support of $570 and got whacked hard didn't she? Now losing Wednesday's lows.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:35:22 PM
Hey Jeff, Read ur comments on CMOS. It just broke a P&F quad top, what stops you from being more bullish on CMOS (sector?)? Just curious, what am I missing?

Here's the p/f chart Link

I'll speak my mind. First thing is this, and I'm not trying to be a smart a@@. It has 4-letters in the stock symbol and its technology. Anything with 4-letters in the symbol to me says NASDAQ at this point, so the radar screen is flashing the potential for some "incoming missiles" at this point.

According to Dorsey/Wright, the stock is classified as a "semiconductor" stock. The semiconductor sector's bullish percent just reversed into a column of O's at 54% and is now bear confirmed.

Yes, CMOS did trade a quad-top, is a strong stock, but now in a weakening sector. Too great a chance at this point that the stock "head of the snake" turns back a bit as the "guts" or internals from the bullish percent signal weakness. Can become a classic "bull trap."

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:25:30 PM
Day trader's note Most successful day traders don't try and fight the market trend on an intraday basis, at least not for very long.

Again... day-trader's only... would be looking to tighten up a stop on Oakley (OO) $17.54 +1.68% just under the 5-minute chart support of $17.50.

The longer-term swing-trader, investor leans over, pets the dog, and goes to get a cup of coffee.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:18:06 PM
Jeff: Let your subscriber's know that AskResearch has free real-time intraday charts on most indexes.

We've got a great bunch of subscriber's don't we!

here's the QQQ's on a 5-minute interval. How's she doing at the 50-pd MA? Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:12:47 PM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $16.31 -3.37% is the "easy" target for bears. Mentioned this as short from 04/02/02 (see 10:14 then 02:12). Near-term support still at the $15.92 level. Upward trend from bar chart is target at $15.

The p/f guys are trading the trend. Trade at $15.50 would get back on a sell signal and have count turning bearish to $13.50. Link

"First test of bearish trend can be painful for the bulls"

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:05:53 PM
Networking, not working as NWX.X 227 -4.63% breaks the lows and trigger's triple-bottom on $5 box. 52-week lows now in play. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  12:00:06 PM
Cardinal Health (CAH) $69.07 -1.39%. I have yet to see a trade at $69.00, which would be a 3-box reversal.

If you were a bear that had been shorting CAH at $67, what's your opinion on CAH? How weak is she? What are you thinking of doing here at $69.07? Hoping for a pullback to $67 so you can cover? Or are you going to be sitting some bids at the 200-day MA? Link

We don't "have" to be long or short CAH. But if you had to, would you rather be long $72 or short $67? Only you can answer that. For me, I'd rather be long at $72 and with the current trend than short $67 and the trend against me.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  11:54:17 AM
I'm wondering why CAH has been weak lately while the .HMO index is hitting highs?

Excellent question. My thoughts are that CAH is a "stage 2" stock. It's not a "leader" and technically, it is a "mid-pack" HMO that is just starting to get out of a base.

Subscribers that have been with us for a couple of months may remember my bullishness in Oxford Health (OHP) the day after it gapped higher on very strong volume from a base near $33. OHP has done little other than go up and up and up, but has since found some resistance right at the "rolled up" retracement we did once again not long ago at $42.26 (retracement low of $23.05, fitted 38.2% to the $30.88 tops, then result gave $42.26).

I don't think this is the top for OHP, I think we're about $30 still to go longer-term and why I originally profiled August calls.

This has me thinking that CAH is just getting started, but from a "later-stage" as bullishness builds in the group and a stock that we could present on a longer-term basis and that new bulls to the group that have seen the OHP, UNH, THC and other get away could play CAH out of a base.

What could happen? Could we see some institutions perhaps sell some partial positions in their biggest gainers, but still be so bullish the group that they rotate some cash to the CAHs of the sector?

Institutions aren't unlike dogs. They'll stick with a sector/stock that treats them right, much like a dog will show loyalty to an owner that treats them well.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  11:42:58 AM
Credence Systems (CMOS) $22.50 +1.3% ... I replied your message , pls. reply ASAP. I bought Strike 25 Put May , when it was around 20 on $ 5.4 , 10 contracts. what do you advise?

I've placed a regression channel on the stock from the 10/02/01 lows against the 12/21/01 highs. This has lower regression channel at $17.74 and upper at $25.50 with mid-point at Wednesday's low of $21.

If I take retracement from $25.84 to $11.26, I get very good "fit" with how the stock has been traded. Right now 80.9% retracement is at $23.05 and stock edged above that earlier in the morning. This has 61.8% retracement at 20.27% and 50% at $18.55.

This is a trade put on by an options trader that did't seem to have a plan in place should the stock move against the trade. Either that or over leveraged and is very nervous about the move higher. I can't stress enough how important it is to have a plan in place before running a trade. The next thing that happens is your trying to get some help via e-mail from a guy that get about 200 e-mails per day.

May advice for a put trader that bit off more than they could chew is to place a stop above today's high, then should the stock work back down to $20.27, get the position to a more reasonable comfort level with your account.

Then review things. What can you do different in the future that you can be comfortable in the trade.

My advice for options traders is to only risk in an option what you can afford to lose. I don't like to use stops on option trade, but then I don't overleverage or risk more than I can afford to lose.

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  11:40:25 AM
ON THIS DAY in 1806, Mr. Isaac Quintard of Stanfield, CT patented the cider mill. Have a glass of cider today if it's Fall where you are. Absent that have a BUD -- it's FRIDAY! You don't have to think about the market at least for tomorrow, the famous day of the "honeydo" list making and taking.

MARKET FRIDAY: Clearly we had a two tiered market again today. The tech heavy Nasdaq can't get going as the DJIA rules the day.

NDX would be up less except that they were buying Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel Corp. (INTC), as Dow stocks. DJIA stocks are mainstream economy and fund managers want to own em. When you don't know where to go, you go to your regular players. The guys that won't get knocked out of the box, by someone inventing a techo gizmo. Hey, we have to have scotch tape!

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  10:55:42 AM
Hi Jeff, The links to your StockChart bar charts will only display daily intervals, not intraday intervals, to the "Free" users. Apparently one must subscribe to basic membership ($9 month) in order to get intraday charts.

Shoot! I didn't realize that. I did have another subscriber wondering why he was getting a daily interval. Yes, this makes sense then. I did pay the annual fee so I could get a few extras. I didn't realize that you couldn't see the 5, 10 and 60-minute pictures.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  10:39:55 AM
Jeff, would you consider a covered call for oakley. Looking at Aug 17.50 or 20.00 calls. Premium looks good.

(grin)... yes they do look a little "expensive" and I was thinking the same, thus part of my thinking for comments for an options guy to leg in here if option biased and more limited capital. Thus perhaps my liking the underlying stock a bit more right now.

I'd try and let OO run a bit if I could, then get the "jack" on the options a little higher still if things work out. I think it may be a bit early today to be selling August, but if you're willing to lock in $17.50 +$2.50 bid ($20) I won't tell a trader that it's bad to buy $17.35 at the open, and sell a potential 15% gain for two-months work. I've seen some tech bull traders work a lot harder for a lot less in recent months.

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  10:35:19 AM
Market Update: NY Financial Index (Symbol: $NF.X): - an index to watch as it is a good bellwether or "confirming" index for the S&P and DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). This index is breaking out and looks like this sector will have another. Trading around 616 right now, I get objectives to as high as 660 area. Long banks, insurance, brokers, etc, appears favorable in the coming few weeks, before the summer doldrums. Make money, buy money.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  10:34:02 AM
Jeff, Do you suggest any options on OO?

Yes, and I have in past. Spring/summer is what I expect to show seasonal strong earnings (sunglasses in the spring/summer) and earnings bump up. Next quarterly release is May 15th, so I would prefer trader buy some time in the August $17.50 (OOHW). The May's will expire on May 17th and are an option also, but if company reports blockbuster (I don't know that they will" then the August may allow more of a move higher and might also allow for more "anticipation" for next quarterly earnings if the May numbers are strong.

My thinking at least.

Decent strategy is to buy 1/2 position of the August, then add if May numbers/guidance strong.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  10:18:00 AM
Oakley (OO) $17.30 ... 60-minute chart shows first "hurdle" is going to be the 50-pd MA. Link and that might correlate with MACD on this timeframe getting near the zero level. If she can get above there, then short-term potential to $18.

Even shorter-term day-trader's view is the 5-minute interval. check out the 50-pd here. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  10:11:58 AM
Brookline Bancorp (BRKL) $20.91 +20.86% ... Friedman Billings Ramsey upgrades to "buy" from "accumulate" after the company announces plans to convert Mutual Holding to a capital stock corporation. Firm raises price target to $21 from $19. Link

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  10:03:12 AM
Market Update: MSFT (Microsoft): - Holding key supprot at 56.30 area, which is the 62% retracement. As MSFT goes, so goes NDX & the Q's. At a minimum, it's unlikely that a strong rally will develop in the techs without Microsoft, which accounts for a good-sized chunk of the capitalization-weighted Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index.

What these technicals give hint to is that a trader that bought April calls, most likely needs to be selling some strength near-term.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  10:02:03 AM
HMO Index (HMO.X) 520.56 +1.23% ... new 52-weeker here. I have a regression channel on this from the September lows, which has upper end of regression near 530 level. That correlates wonderfully with the work we did in our "rolled up" retracement from $370 to $567, which has 61.8% at 492 and 80.9% just above at 529.75.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:59:12 AM
S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) still bull confirmed at 73%, and would take a reading of 72% to get back into O's. What a difference the "lack of tech" has on things isn't it? Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:55:04 AM
NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) continues to show internal weakening, losing a net of 2 stocks to sell signals yesterday. Has seen the internal weakenin g after achievieng "overbought" level of 70%. Link

At then end of Monday's session, reading was 55% bullish.

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  9:51:57 AM
MARKET UPDATE - QQQ: Q's are on the move, rallying from the low end of the hrly downtrend price channel -- resistance at the upper end of the same channel now comes into play, at 35.75-36.00. This looks like the area to SELL if the Q's begin to falter in this area.

As always, if there is a move that pierces through resistance, then, on a subsequent pullback (if any), this area becomes establised by one to a few lows as support, the event suggests a bullish QQQ breakout. Conversely, lower channel support stands at 34 - if broken, next target is late Feb. - early Mch. lows at 33.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:46:24 AM
Western Digital (WDC) $6.83 +3.48% ... I like this one for longer-term options trader. Mentioned in the market monitor late Wednesday after better than expected earnings. Leg into with strength and start out small. Bullish count is up in the high teens.

"easy" stop at $5.00, lets say $4.90. Link Decent longer-term option would be the October $7.50 (WDCJU) $0.95.

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  9:42:16 AM
MARKET UPDATE: DJIA (INDU) easily moved above resistance at 10,260 - the key now will be whether pullbacks to this area, if any, establish this area as support also.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:42:03 AM
Most active out of the gate BRCD +1.48%, MIEC +6.77%, XOMA -41%, SUNW +0.97%, WCOM +1.23%

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:40:02 AM
Oakley (OO) $17.35 +0.57% ... I like this one for the bulls at $17.35. Trader's stop just below at $16.40. Mentioned this one in yesterday's late session.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:37:52 AM
Verisign (VSN) $24.20 ... stock edging up at $24.60 after USB Piper Jaffray says that field checks indicate that VRNS's Illuminet subsidiary has won Cingular Wireless as a customer for wireless SMS interoperability solutions; together with the recently announced contract with PCS, Illuminent should now be supporting SMS interoperability at 2 of the largest US wireless service providers, expects meaningful SMS revenues to begin in 2003, and while firm does not see these contracts as incremental to forecasts, these wins provide additional visibility to 2003. Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:33:46 AM
May Crude futures (cl02k) $26.73 +0.56% ... Sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to Israel has calmed prices amid hopes that possible supply disruptions could be avoided. However, calls from Iran to suspend exports has lifted prices in London.

  Leigh Stevens   4/5/02,  9:32:05 AM
It's Showtime! The market liked the growth in non-farm payrolls, +8,000 above expectations. Dow opening will put it above key resistance at 10,260, as highlighted last night at Link

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:27:17 AM
Federated Dept. Stores (FD) $38.40 ... upgraded at Prudential to "buy" from "hold" with a price target of $47. Pru saying valuation is at the low end of its 5-year historical range and trades at a 18% discount to MAY's multiple, yet both company's are expected to have similar earnings growth in 2002 of 14%-15%. Also, inventory productivity measures, EBITDA margins, and balance sheet ratios are expected to improve in 2002. Link

The supply/demand picture for FD is mixed. The stock does trade above trend, so longer-term bullish. The recent sell signal at $37.00 has a bull assessing potential longer-term risk to a vertical count of $29. Therefor, a trader can use the bar chart and the 200-day MA as support as an entry point, tight stop at $36.75, which would protect from a break of Tuesday's low.

  Jeff Bailey   4/5/02,  9:20:17 AM
Good Morning! stock futures look to be digesting this morning's jobless rate data that came in at 5.7% with mixed emotions.

Look for a lot of analysis and different views as February's number was revised lower, while March's job adds were a little stronger than expected. All told, the 5.7% jobless rate is a little higher than the 5.6% rate economists had expected.

Stock futures are at their best levels of the session and the markets look to open in positive territory as S&P futures are up 4.80 at 1,130.50 and just above fair value.

Treasuries are higher this morning with the benchmark 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) at 5.214%, which is right at yesterday's low YIELD level.

We may see a more "defensive" posture from the market as the weekend approaches with many traders not wanting to be "too long" going into the weekend. With tensions where they are in the Middle East, traders will often try to get things "flat" in their accounts or at levels where they're comfortable with the over-the-weekend risk. "Flat" can still mean a trader is long a number of his/her favorite stocks that are trading strong, while short an equally weighted dollar amount of their favorite "weak" stocks that still have some room to downward price targets.


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