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  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  7:26:40 PM
Qualcomm (QCOM) $35.03 -5.98% ... hi jeff can you up date me on qcom its looks good for put in p/f chart ?

Yes, does look bearish. Stock trades below trend and current vertical count is bearish to $25. Watch Verizon's (VZ) earnings and comments tomorrow morning, but QCOM looks defensive here (as does most that is telecom related). Link

On bar chart, watch that MACD and signal. Cross back below signal just under the zero level could have stock testing the lows. Some telecom stocks have gotten flushed on breaks to new lows. Stay disciplined with any put buying and as always DON'T OVERLEVERAGE! Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  7:18:15 PM
CRA is down sharply today, currently at 17.654 down 1.72. Any idea what's going on?

Stock was downgraded today to "mkt perform" from "buy" at Friedman Billings and there was also news that Celera would move its discovery-systems business to its sister unit, Applied Biosystems (ABI). Analysts say the move wasn't a "big surprise" to Wall Street, but it does raise some questions about Celera's revenue in the near term. The move will allow Celear to focus exclusively on therapeutic drug discovery and development.

P/F chart of CRA has been bearish as recent break at $19 was triple-bottom sell signal. Link . With a bearish vertical count of $8.00, stock doesn't look very strong.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  6:26:00 PM
Subscriber QUESTION: "Leigh, Any comments on the Russell 2000? It looks like it has pulled back to it's lower, upward trend line."

RESPONSE: RUT has topped out in 520 area twice before in prior 15 months, before recent highs in this region, and may be again.

RUT has pulled back to its recent weekly up trendline -- it's on this trendline today. This last rally has peaked on less relative strength as the weekly RSI and Stochastics indicators did not go as high as the rally that topped out at lower levels in early Jan. -- well, the 13-week RSI did go slightly higher, just not by much; ie, on recent 517 weekly close versus prior wkly top close of 499 in week of 1/4. RUT could be making another top. Every media talking head has been saying how the small and mid-cap stocks are outperforming, outperforming, outperforming. But, any one investment theme will not last indefinitely.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  5:49:07 PM
Subscriber QUESTION: "Hi Leigh, Just been noticing and thinking on your market monitor update about the OEX calulation. I'm trying to figure out and noticed when OEX is more bearish looking than the SPX. I recall reading that the OEX was more oversold then the SPX. What is making OEX turn weaker?"

What I relate the relative strength of the 500 versus the 100 S&P stocks, is that the mid cap stocks have been outperforming the overall market. The OEX (S&P 100) is the biggest companies. The S&P 500 of course are all sizable companies --but within the 500, there are many of lesser size, (medium size or "mid cap", middle capitalization).

A number of these "second tier" companies within the S&P 500, have been performing better -- in general, their valuations are not as high and it appears they can grow their earnings more than the biggies of the S&P 100 list. These stocks are not as large as the first tier in terms of capitalization and some of them are more dominate in a niche or specialized market.

The biggest companies count for more in a capitalization-weighted index like the S&P. On the other hand, a group of 50-100 stocks even though smaller companies, when holding up better or even advancing, have an influence in the index of which they are part. So, the 500 gets a boost on the way up and a brake on the way down.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  5:17:15 PM
Subscriber QUESTION: "It has been refreshing reading your writeups since you joined OIN. 1.) I would like to ask when do you use different settings for stochastics. I think you use (21,3,3) while Austin used (10,5,3) & (5,3,3). I do intraday trade and swing trade from 2 to 5 days. What settings do you think would be more reliable for me and why? Please advise. 2. In addition, are there symbols that I can track Advance/Decline numbers for NYSE & NASDAQ using Qcharts?"

RESPONSE: 1.) "3" relates to the SLOW stochastic smoothing factors and this is standard formula so disregard the 3. What does vary is "length" or number of periods. 5 as length for hourly charts is too short for trading the 2-3 day swings. 10 is better. Try 13 and 21 for hourly charts. On shorter intraday time frames try 8 (or 10), 13 or 21 and see how they perform. (8, 13 & 21 are fibonacci numbers.) 21 is about right for trading the 2-3-5 day price swings, duration I also like to trade.

2.)Advance-decline figures: QC:ADVDEC.NQ for Nasdaq Composite and QC:ADVDEX.NY for the NYSE

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  4:34:13 PM
Corning Inc. (GLW) $7.00 -5.6% ... company reports in line loss of $0.10 a share versus year-ago profit of $0.29. Revenues declined 53% to $898 million (consensus $919.2 million). For Q2, company sees sales of $900-$925 million (consensus $944 million) and a net loss similar to Q1 (consensus for loss of $0.09 a share). Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  4:29:56 PM
Mandalay Resort (MBG) $34.99 +0.51% ... company says it expects Q1 results to exceed $0.70 a share, which would be well above Multex consensus for $0.50 a share. MBG noted that visitor volumes in Las Vegas have rebounded since the start of its fiscal year, and that its REVPAR comparisons at its five resorts combined have begun to turn positive in April, ahead of prior expectations and many competitors. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:58:36 PM
Oooo, ow! We had profiled VZ as put/short near $46 and stock getting "whacked" again today at new 52-weeker of $40.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:57:26 PM
Tomorrow morning earnings include AWE, DD, G, ROM, IGT, LMT, PEP, PHA and VZ.

Can VZ make another telecom to give some less than spectacular guidance?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:55:52 PM
After the bell earnings from ALTR, EDS, GLW, IMNX, LH and LPNT along with many others.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:53:52 PM
Airborne Freight (ABF) $18.31 -0.7% ... announces that Costco (COST) $41.32 -2.68% has chosen ABF to provide ground delivery service throughout the US, primarily for the return of merchandise from any of its 284 warehouse stores to hundreds of vendors around the country. Deal is a multi-year contract for $20 million per year, which significantly expands ABF's 16-year relationship with COST.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:49:18 PM
Celestica (CLS) $31.74 -2.03% ... still an OEM with some telecom exposure I think has downside left. Link

Fellow stock Flextronics (FLEX) Link could be leading the way.

CLS looks more "over extended," thus I'd be more bearish there.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  3:45:59 PM
SECTORS > Healthcare Index ($HMO.X) stocks are still attracting some buying. The stong get stronger, the weak, weaker. HMO is trading around 587. Someone asked me if there any target that I get off the charts. A "measured move" ojective would be to around 660. A measured move objective assumes that a second "leg" in a sector or an index will (at least) equal the first major move. HMO begin the current move in early-2000 from 209 area, and the move ran to 500 a year later, for a gain of 291 pts. There was a correction and pullback over several months to around 368. If the current leg is (at least) equal to the first, a measured move objective is to 659. This measurement would suggest that HMO still has some upside potential but the move is now nearly straight up - remind you of anything? Guess that tech wreck thinking has reminded me all those Nasdaq charts at the top. This view makes me nervous mostly when I don't own this sector from a much lower level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:44:33 PM
Hi, are you still bearish on CIEN. I'm thinking of buying that Oct.5 put before closing as I could potentially sell tomorrow with a nice profit on say 40 contracts. Any thoughts??

I gave my thought at 12:13:22 .... "grrrrowwwl." Just DON'T OVERLEVERAGE, set an alert at $3.55 and let her rip.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:34:20 PM
I see KKD is falling down again today. You or Eric profiled it last week as a buy. I was just wondering what you thoughts are today.

I know that I mentioned KKD as a potential "squeeze" candidate back on 04/12 or 04/15 near $41. With stock at $35.82, I have retracement from $45.86 to $25.05 and this has it sitting right on 50% retracement and where stock has found support in past.

Tough trade here as I think bears are probably sitting some bids at current levels as stock did rally from this level to $44 back in March. Stock has been very tough to "call" and point/figure still rather bullish above trend and vertical count of $67. As such, I'm going to avoid any type of trade, other than a straddle/strangle at this point.Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  3:27:58 PM
What are your thoughts about holding CAH over earnings which come out tomorrow morning before the bell? I have May 70 calls which are up about 70%, including in & out commissions but my Bollinger chart still shows at top.

That's a toughy as I do like the stock "bullish" longer-term. Nice gain going so far and might think a trader with 5 or more calls simply sells 60% of them before earnings (May expiration) and hangs on to the rest over earnings and looks for upside guidance.

Right now, I think a May options trader has to make the "account management call" as to hold/sell. I'm never willing to give back too much of a 70% gains if I can help it.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  3:22:36 PM
I mentioned that volume was running a bit ahead of Friday, but mostly cause of Worldcom (WCOM) trading 226 million shares -- hard to believe they have that many shares outstanding. Ericsson (ERICY) has traded 67 million shares. Otherwise, today would be on the light side, volume wise. Negative earnings announcements have taken it down, as far as fundamentals, only some decent earnings, looks like it could bouy the market. A buyers strike except for those doing bargain hunting. Someone has to buy for all those sellers! Lucent (LU) is in the green column again, as the buyers have got it back above $5. Only a couple stocks trading up at least 3% on any kind of volume - Applied Digital Solutions (ADSX) and Micron (MU). While Sun Micro (SUNW) is taking another significant hit today (-5%). If you look at the most acitves, the theme is that they are mostly tech, in another tech wreck day.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  3:01:22 PM
SECTORS - Only sectors in green today, and just barely, are precious metals ($XAU.X & $GPX.X) and Utilities ($UTY.X). On gold, $307 has been significant resistance on bullion but MidEast and oil threats seems to be keeping seller away. Oil and the dollar have been firm today - nothing dramatic, but holding up. There are a few Dow stocks still in the green column, but nothing like the percentage losses in the red. Only United Technology (UTX) is up more than a percentage point currently

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  2:54:11 PM
Index Update: All - All indices, except for the DJX, are now oversold on a short-term basis. The 100 stock averages, S&P 100 (OEX) & Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are within another shot down of their prior lows of week before last (4/11). SPX and the Composite, reflecting the broder markets there, are further off the bottom, but of course still drifting lower -- volume is running a bit ahead of Friday on both Nasdaq and NYSE, although Friday was light. I doubt we will see a bounce today. When we've had the market down on earnings disappointments, markdowns of sales and revenue estimates and layoff announcements, the negative effect has persisted all day. If the next day had no major negatives on the earnings front and the indices were oversold, the market has been able to rebound some. No big economic reports until Wed., when we get Durable goods and new home sales, as well as the Fed Beige book report.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  2:28:21 PM
American Intl. Group (AIG) $70.04 -1.05% ... stock recovering from session lows of $67.49. After observing "considerable short selling in the stock," AIG has asked the SEC and NYSE to investigate the activity. (see 11:06:18) and 11:00 AM EST intraday update. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  2:23:09 PM
KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $63.67 -2% ... is another semi-equipment we've been using to monitor AMAT and even NVLS. KLAC sitting right on 50-day MA and this has been moving average of support for this stock. Any break of pattern from recent holding of this MA to downside would be alert of potential weakness for semi-equipment in my book. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  2:20:14 PM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $25.67 -3% ... stock broke to "downside" of "inside day today and looks like she wants to test that rising 50-day MA at $24.99. Back prior to 2:1 split, I had profiled short for short-term trader and stock firmed at $50 ($25 in today's action). As such, would hold off on any "longs" at this point.

Will also note that Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) is sitting right on upward trend on bar chart again. Good point to just observe and not necessarily trade at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  2:14:28 PM
Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) looks like a player in the May $580's. See 150 contracts traded in both the puts (CZYQP) and calls (CZYEP). It's not a straddle as the 570's would have been the play. Thinking trader sold the 580 calls and bought the $580 puts? Never sure, but that looks to be the trade with short-term action.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  2:03:38 PM
Service Corporation (SRV) $4.00 +11.11% ... short-term bull from Friday may want to take 1/2 position off the table here. Stock has been stuck at $4.00 and market looking a bet defensive. As such, willing to part with decent little gain in short-time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  2:00:47 PM
Combined Telecom Index (IXTCX) 152.99 -7.3% ... getting downside alert here at new 52-week low. Looks defensive. With "fitted" retracement set at $261.02 to $86.58, this would have 50% at $173.80 (recent resistance) 61.8% $153.21 (support now broken) and 80.9% at $119.89 as bear's target. Look for telecom weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  1:46:00 PM
increase in USAP this am? up over $2 thanks

Universal Stainless & Alloy (USAP) $15.15 +17.6%... I see no news that would be driving stock today. I do see that they are expected to report earnings tomorrow (April 23). Company did give a conference call "preview" on April 9th. Link

Logical geuss is that somebody liked what they heard from that call as stock has been on a tear since. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  1:37:14 PM
KB Home (NYSE:KBH) $48.10 +3.61% ... will note here that p/f chart gave "bullish triangle" at $46 back on 04/08/02. Link

It too has achieved/exceeded bullish vertical count dating back to November (red C) of $47.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  1:35:39 PM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $27.90 +2.23% .... looked at p/f chart and see that stock did achieve a bullish vertical count from last November (red B) of $25.50. As such, looks like a lot of buying to drive that column of X from $16.50 to $27.00. Worth a shot on a break above $28 as stocks can always exceed their bullish counts, but investors stop certainly under the $23 level, which would be a double-bottom sell signal. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  1:30:01 PM
Short-term traders May want to keep an eye on Toll Brother (NYSE:TOL) $27.95, on a break above $28.05. Link

Will note that KB Home (KBH) popped from similar technicals on break to new high. Link

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  1:17:40 PM
Index Update: QQQ - I seem to have forgotten to update the Q's as far as today -- in my Index Trader summary from yesterday, i suggested that trade under 33.50 would put the Q's back into its prior downtrend channel. Depending on how the downtrend channel is drawn, current daily low could be resting on this line. Not that it matters much, as QQQ appears headed back to a re-test of the prior low at 33. This looks like the key area. Hourly stochatic is now at a fully oversold reading. That and a bus ticket will get you on the bus! However, given the oversold situation and IF prices stablize and turn up from at or above 33 level, I think shortcovering and taking some profits on puts and speculating on the long side, is an appropriate trade strategy. My most recent end of day Index wrap up was titled "TECH WRECK" and that seems quite appropriate today!

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  12:42:27 PM
"Leigh: On my Q charts, when I change my stoch. to 21 for hourly chart all my time frames show 21, what Im I doing wrong????"

RESPONSE: If you right click on a stochastics study and in "preferences", set "length" to 21, when you put in a next symbol or change time frames (e.g., from hourly to daily) for that same chart window, the stochastics will remain at 21 until you change it again. However, the change you made will not change the stochastics setting in a DIFFERENT chart window. To have for example, "21" stochastic setting on an hourly chart, "14" on a daily chart, and something else on a weekly chart, you need to set up 3 different chart windows and set these different lengths in each different chart window.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  12:22:02 PM
Index Update: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) - Low so far today is at top of prior downtrend channel, at least the way I construct it (this can vary some depending on how you draw the trendlines) -- anyway, first area of support based on this trendline coincides with intraday low in 1341-1342 area. This line extends lower over next few hours of trading; support I highlighted in my most recent Index Trader update at Link was 1345, blown away on weakness this AM. Best technical support looks like area of previous lows in 1325 area. However, as I said in my weekend summary, the key to defining the area where we might have the next upside trading opportunity, I figured as when we next saw hourly stochastic oversold. This has happended in current hour at the longer setting (21) I use for hourly charts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  12:13:22 PM
Ciena (CIEN) $8.05 -6.82% ... stock down after debt has been placed under review by Moody's for possible downgrade. The review was prompted by the "collapse" in demand for Ciena's next generation optical networking products, combined with the overall uncertainty that has engulfed the market for telecommunications equipment and the company's prospect for recovery.

growwwwwwl.... those October $5 puts (EUQVA) $0.45 look appetizing.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  11:51:09 AM
Index Update: Nasdaq - I seem to be running a bit slow this morning, whcih may have something to do with this seminar I taught and participated in all weekend - never did get caught up on my sleep and even a double expresso is not quite got me up to speed. So, in slow motion, let me continue.

Nasdaq Composite (COMP) - Near support is at today's intraday low (so far) at 1759-1760 area; next, at 1740-1741; best support looks to be well lower, in 1730-1733 area. Interestingly, today's low "filled in" the upside chart gap stemming from the sharply higher Tuesday open; Near resistance > 1795 area, at high end of downside price gap that occurred based on the lower opening. A downside chart gap tends to become resistance, at least for a while; the reverse is true for support implied by an upside price gap --a daily chart gap being a space that shows up on a chart, either when a low is above the prior day's high or when a high is below the prior day's low.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  11:33:23 AM
Index Update: DXJ - The Dow presents a weaker picture than the S&P, in that DXJ never broke out above the hourly downtrend channel dating from the 3/19 peak. Near support > 101.50; then, 100.50-100.7 - my most recent Index Trader summary highlights 100.50-101 as an area to buy -- that is, both an area to exit puts and to buy calls. The hourly stochastic is showing downward momentum, but has some ways to go before it will reach and oversold reading, at least on my 21 (hour) setting; Of course, with length set to as low as 5, its a different story, as on a 5-hour basis, DJX is close to a very short-term oversold, which is why there may be some signs of stablization around today's lows. I think we may see DJX heading still lower, later today.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  11:10:28 AM
Index Updates: SPX - S&P 500 index gapped slightly lower on the hourly chart and is now trading back down at the top of the previous downtrend channel. SPX looks like it will move lower along this line, as the hourly stochastic heads down toward an oversold reading. Near support > 1112, at today's low then, at 1110, where I suggested exiting puts and buying calls (4/21 Index Trader); Near resistance > 1119-1120; S&P 100 (OEX) Very similiar pattern to SPX, as OES is also back to top end of prior downtrend channel, which now appears to ba acting as a "line" of support; Near support > 551-551.50, where I suggested as a buying area or place to take profits on puts and buy calls; next lower support is 547-548; Near resistance > 558; then, 561-562.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  11:06:18 AM
American Intl. Group (AIG) $68.81 -2.79% ... stock trading lower on trading floor rumor of an SEC investigation. Rumor has not been confirmed, although it should be noted that on February 21, the company was served a subpoena in relation to an investigation into PNC's bookkeeping. Link

I see "bearish triangle" in AIG and would be defensive with the stock if long.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  10:46:28 AM
The North American Telecoms Index ($XTC.X) and the Combined Telecom Sector Index ($IXTC.X) are off sharply this morning -- the combined sector is down the most (-10 at 154.90 or -6.1%), with the narrower NA sector, down 4.4% or -25.9 at 554. I highlighted XTC last week in Sector Trader, as by 4/11, the index was at the low end of a broad multimonth downtrend channel -- from this area, there was a substantial rebound last week. To keep today's decline in perspective, XTC is still above its prior closing low at 537.7. I suggested playing this sector by buying Level 3 Communications (LVLT) stock or the June 5 Calls. So far today LVLT is holding its own, off just 1.5%. Big losers in the XTC No. American Telecom sector are of course WorldCom (WCOM) down 29% on a big gap lower; MCIT (WorldCom Inc-mci Group Comm) -12%, Qwest(Q), off 7%; Sprint (FON), also down 7%; AT&T (T), minus 6.6% and Nextel (NXTL), off 5%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:44:19 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $19.25 -3.79% ... is a stock I thing very good for a $20 Straddle. Buy the June $20 calls (SWQFD) $1.85 and the June $20 puts (SWQRD) $2.25 for a June Straddle, or set out on either side at the June 22.50 call and June $17.50 put for strangle. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:40:40 AM
Oh Great Hunter, Could it or does it mean anything special that $DJT, $CYC and $XAL had inside days on Friday? Are we getting ready for the indexes to move out of the trading ranges possibly?

I sure think so. I think some every good trades exist for Straddle/Strangle traders in here right now. Not only on some of the indexes but stocks too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:32:59 AM
Hmmmmm... May Copper futures (hg02k) are higher at $0.7445 +1.56%. Most likely needs to see a move above $0.75/lb to have PD firming.

As such, tough call here on PD, but more patient bull in PD may try selling covered call in between bid/offer of options.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:29:42 AM
Phelps Dodge (PD) $37.73 -3.87% .... Getting downside alert here at 50% retracement of $37.76. I had profiled as bullish with tight stop under $38.75 in past. If still looking to hold longer-term, would suggest selling a covered call on stock here. Lower end of regression at/near $36.50 level from here.

More "defensive" covered call would be the May $35 (PDEG) bid $3.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:23:55 AM
Seven Seas Petroleum (AMEX:SEV) $3.75 +24.17% ... is oil/gas stock mentioned late Friday night. Opened at $3.25 and really shot higher here. Don't chase and only for Aggressive Bulls

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:16:07 AM
SAP Aktiengesell (SAP) $33.85 -4.13% ... stock finally opens for trading after earlier "Solly" downgrade.

Those subscribers that continue to hold the May expiration now know that current support found just above $32 and the now flat 200-day MA. Link

Open interest for May on call side is at the $40's (1,605) while put side open interest is at $30's (1,512).

Will be watching/monitoring Kronos (KRON) $40.31 -1.54% and PeopleSoft (PSFT) $23.30 -0.72% when/if SAP tests 200-day MA again at the $32.71 level. Need PSFT and KRON to be breaking lower to help drag SAP lower. If not the case, then plan to close out SAP put trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:05:40 AM
Service Corp Intl (SRV) $4.05 +12% ... as outlined Friday (we've lost the archive again) I would now raise stop to break-even in trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  10:02:16 AM
Service Corp Intl. (SRV) $3.94 +9.72% ... is Aggressive bulls only stock profiled Friday and getting a nice little bounce this morning. As mentioned Friday, first "hurdle" for bulls is the $3.97-$4.00 level on way to our trading target of $4.50 (mid-point of downward regression).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:58:53 AM
Juniper Networks (JNPR) $11.01 -8.58% ... stock gaps lower at open and trades as low at $10.76 early as company's major customer is WorldCom (WCOM) and some fear that capex cutbacks could put pressure on JNPR as supplier of fiber equipment to WCOM.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:57:03 AM
Deutche Bank saying in pre-market note that they believe there could be more negative catalysts in the next 30-60 days for Merrill Lynch (MER) and the brokerage group. During Friday's conference call, firm says that e-mails published by the NY Attorney General were damaging and could lead to stricter oversight of several firms; expects significant private litigation and believes that other firms under investigation may seek an industry-wide settlement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:50:48 AM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $14.75 -3.4% ... stock breaking below upward trend on bar chart from the September lows. In Friday's PI wrap, I thought bears should be looking short CISCO as one of the few "telecom equipment" stocks still trading above $5.00 and that may have other market bears doing some "head hunting" here. Link

CSCO isn't "pure play" in telecom equipment like LU or NT, but close enough for a hungry bear to play the "cuts in capex spending" card that most telecom service have to do in order to drive some type of gain to the bottom line.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:45:11 AM
SBC Communications (SBC) $31.61 -3.39% ... "Fitted" retracement from $47.34 to $25.54 looks to be in play. 61.8% at $34.48 served as resistance and has 80.9% at $30.51 looking to be bear target near-term. Bearish vertical count from p/f chart is $26 and this too would tie in nicely with 100% retracement from "fitted" at $26.54.

Bear with previously profiled 1/2 position probably sits tight here, then if rally should take place back near $34, could then round to full. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:40:51 AM
Telecom sectors under a great deal of selling pressure this mornings. Combined Telecom (IXTCX) -6.17%, N. Amer. Telecom (XTC.X) -4.7%, Wireless (YLS.X) -5.32% and Fiber Optice (FOP.X) -4.5% all showing weakness and leading sector loser list in early going.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:31:20 AM
Check Point Software (CHKP) $19.14 -4.44% ... getting alert here as stocks sinks to new 52-week low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:28:13 AM
McKesson (MCK) $38.74 .... Link Salomon Smith Barney upgrades to "buy" from "outperform" based on the belief that the drug distribution biz should outperform expectations in the near-term, as well as expectations that the company's valuations will catch up to peers CAH Link and ABC Link ; raises price target to $50 from $46.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  9:25:47 AM
Big story on stocks this morning is more expected weakness in telecom stocks, as WorldCom (WCOM) is off sharply; this wonderful event is from an earnings warning from the compnay. We've got a LOT of earnings due this week of course. Ericsson (ERICY), in this sector, is off sharply in Europe. Ratings cuts predictably also occurring. Doesn't anyone talk anymore?!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/22/02,  9:22:07 AM
Lucent (LU) $4.29 .... reports Q2 loss of $0.14, 3-cents better than Multex consensus of ($0.17). Revenues rose 1.5% year/year to $4.52 billion versus the $3.61 billion consensus. For Q3, company sees a modest sequential improvement on the bottom-line. Company is reluctant to provide guidance due to market uncertainty.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/22/02,  9:18:57 AM
It's showtime! Hope it's not more of the same this week when the market closes about where it opened. We're due slightly lower, as the S&P futures are off about 5 pts. DJ futures are down 37 and NAS futures are off about 20 right now.

 
 

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