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  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:37:57 PM
Hmmmm.... Priceline.com (PCLN) $4.83 +0.83% ... "Cutting commissions to travel agents"... P/F chart of PCLN shows bearish vertical count of $0.00. Link

January $5 puts (VZJMA) offered $1.45. Risk capital only, but may be a "tax-loss sell" into the end of the year. I don't know if they would be impacted by Jetblue actions or other airlines. If subscriber has better knowledge of PCLN business or impact, then perhaps an idea. For me, "risk capital" only, but p/f chart bearish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:27:53 PM
Jetblue (JBLU) $45.60 +3.2% ... announces it will now longer pay commissions to travel agents on travel sold throughout the U.S., in an effort to keep cost structure as low as possible. (Begins tomorrow)

So much for "two-week's notice"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:17:57 PM
Furniture Brands (FBN) $39.00 unchanged. Reported Q1 earnings of $0.58 per share, 6-cents better than consensus of $0.52. Revenues rose 25.3% year/year to $634.4 million versus $599.8 million consensus. Gave guidance for Q2 (June) of $0.53-$0.57 (consensus $0.54).

Point/figure charts makes you wonder. Link as bullish vertical count is $90.50 and first sign of trouble is trade at $34.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  6:34:59 PM
S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) still "bear alert" as larger capitalized S&P components show continued internal deterioration with 61% of stocks still showing a buy signal, but 39% on sell signals. Traffic light has been flashing yellow since 72% reversal. A reading of 52% currently needed to turn "bear confirmed." Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  6:31:23 PM
S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) reversed into "bear alert" status and currently reads 66.6%. Link . Traffic light flashiing yellow here and make the observation that "big tech" in the NASDAQ-100 pulling things lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  6:27:45 PM
NASDAQ-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) today's action has indicator back in bull correction status at 37%. Link This has the traffic light flashing yellow. A reading of 34% would have index "bear confirmed."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  5:52:03 PM
Symantec (SYMC) $34.65 -1.64% ... Internet security software company has stock trading higher at $37.50 after reporting Q4 pro forma EPS of $0.41 a share, beating estimates by 6-cents. Revenues also higher at $310.8 million versus consensus of $289.6 million. On conference call, guiding higher for Q1 (June) revenues to $280-$290 million versus Multex consensus of $279 million. Affirming Q1 EPS estimate of $0.32. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  5:41:08 PM
Retek (RETK) $21.91 -0.74% ... bearish trader in "software" group may want to note p/f technicals here. Stock gave "triple-bottom sell" in early April at $25. On Monday, trade at $23 broke bullish support and triggered "bearish triangle pattern." Very bearish supply/demand picture here. Vertical count bearish to $16 hints of some downside left. Link

Stock does not trade with options.

Bar chart has upward trend from September lows, attached to 02/21/02 pullback of $17.29 extending to $20 right now. May see some defenders at that level. MACD on Daily Interval trending lower and slipping back below zero level. Link

Trader might want to watch stock for rally near $23 as entry. Note Symantec (SYMC) reported earnings that beat expectations after the bell, so might get a "pop" in some software stocks in the morning. If they "pop" to resistance or overhead supply levels, look for entry points.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  4:31:47 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: Airline Index ($XAL.X)- Rebounding today (close: 97.24) on a Merrill Lynch upgrade of some key airline stocks (they believe in a cylical earnings recovery), appears to be too little too late, judging by the technical picture for XAL -- now bearish -- not unlike the Cylical Index ($CYC.X). The other day, XAL broke below its Nov-Feb-Apr up trendline, which also took it under its 50 and 200-day MA's. Doubt that XAL will regain its uptrend line and a return to it could be the kiss of death - to regain its uptrend XAL needs to get north of 101. A rally to this area looks like a sell via playing some airline puts. Southwest Airlines (LUV), which has been bouncing around the low end of a broad uptrend channel, looks in danger of falling below this $18 support - if so, support at 17-17.25 is critial. I suggested Sep 20 LUV Calls at a buck or under (at.95) Tough to make a buck on the long side these days!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  4:06:38 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,030 -0.58% ... traded the 10,050 level into the close and that puts an "O" in the 10,050 box and gives "triple-bottom" sell signal. Bearish count is 9,800 and good target for straddle trader. Break is to the downside so more bearish here. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  4:01:53 PM
"Up, then down, then up, then down" was market action. Has straddle/strangle trader feeling the "swings of uncertainty" and feeling something is about to break. Short interest building and somebody's going to give in.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:58:46 PM
After the bell earnings CTXS, FDRY, ISIL, LSI, SYMC, AFFR, CHIR, CYTC, FFIV, HLIT, TKLC, VRTX.

Then tomorrow morning ALA, AIG, ABC, BMY, CCMP, CVX, DCX, HOT, TYC, VIA, WCOM.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  3:58:03 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: Cyclical Index (CYC) - Last at 559.6, with investors appearing to decide that the cyclical group outlook is not as rosy as reflected by recent price levels of the stocks in this sector. What to do? Adjust prices of course! -- mark em down!! CYC is retreating and, in a first bearish omen, pierced its 50-day moving average a couple of days ago -- today, the move is accelerating to the downside. Looks like CYC will test a support zone beginning around 559, extending down to 552. 552 looks like key support, the area where CYC topped in early-Jan.- what was resistance "becomes" support on the way back down. I had suggested buying Alcoa (AA) May 40 calls, now at 35, as a way to play this sector - back when it looked like cyclicals, after a pullback, were going to keep going up. I'll stay with the calls as they aren't worth selling, but the stock pattern is bearish -- key test of support would be in $33 area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:48:53 PM
Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 559 -1% ... getting downside alert here at $560. This is my "key" sector for "economic" bullishness. While 1% loss not good, better than beating technology getting right now. Regardless, looks defensive and if $557 were to be broken, could see sharp fall off to retracement at 541. Multiply by 3 and you get most technology sectors is my thinking.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:46:37 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $53.09 -1.64% ... with retracement from $73.59 to $41.50, will note stock looks ready to close below 61.8% retracement of $53.76. Stock hasn't done this since late September before break to the 80.9% retracement level of $47.63. Software under pressure and big names looking weak.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:43:09 PM
Oracle (ORCL) $10.65 -4.22% ... noting technical weakness here on break to relative low. Now faces potential test of 52-week lows of September at $10.16. Further sign of weakness in sector "bellwether" and may have further pressure from bears in sector on stocks that broke down, then rallied recently on light volume. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:38:18 PM
Volume brisk in the home builders today... in order of volume DHI, CTX, PHM, LEN, TOL, RYL, KBH, BZH, SPF, CMH. Noting DHI-RYL all showing 1 million plus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:35:39 PM
Defense stocks see bid on further comments from the chief of weapons buyer at the Pentagon who confirmed they plan to increase margin rates; traders note that group had found bid yesterday and DFX.X bid right to 200.00 level of psychological resistance. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:32:20 PM
Overture Services (OVER) $25.63 +6.91% ... stock spiked as high as $28.50 within last 30-minutes on BIG volume. Traders looking for news on the AOL deal which expires today. It is unclear if someone thought they had an early read on the news or what took place. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:28:19 PM
GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) $134 -1.99% ... yesterday broke to relative low, hung around this morning but starting to see further declines here. Lower end of regression along with retracement support at $130.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:26:01 PM
Treasury Watch 10-year YIELD finished at session low with YIELD of 5.095%. Bond traders cite the 2-year auction went well and buyers were plenty, short covering in the 10-year also mentioned.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  3:23:09 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: Semiconductor Index (SOX) - Well, that didn't take long!, as the SOX slipped BELOW the early-April lows at 548-548, which as I wrote about not TOO many hours ago (2!), suggests the beginning of a new down leg. There is a "line" of support, formed by numerous lows over Nov.-Jan.-Feb. at 497-498 - this area looks like it'll be re-tested. Investors decided that the economy is not recovering as fast as hoped and tech is going to do less well than say, consumer non-durables like PG and KO. Needless to say, I am stepping away from thoughts of playing the SOX calls for a short-term bounce. Better to play the PUTS, but the SOX premiums are too rich for my blood. Instead, play the downside in SOX-member stocks like Micron (MU), KLA Tencor (KLAC), Teradyne (TER), Applied Materials (AMAT) or Intel (INTC). Among the biggies, only Texas Instruments (TXN) is holding up some here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:22:40 PM
Novellus (NVLS) $47.84 -3.4% ... has stock giving up its 50-day MA. This is something we wanted to mention note from past observations. Looks weak here.

Short or bear notes a stronger sector of technology looking weak, but this builds hunger in the weaker sector. If the bulls are dumping their winners, most likely not going to be buying the weak ones anytime soon. The weak names are the place to concentrate, not those that have found buyers in recent months.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  3:19:34 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 533.12 -3.97 ... really turned south when I was writing the 03:00 Update. Sliced the 550 support level like knife through butter and now violates the 200-day MA. Very defensive looking here. Not sure if "Beige book" has something to do with this or not.

Look for technical/psychological support at $500. Link

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  3:03:24 PM
Index Update: Well, that didn't last long! That being the little fledgling rally this AM - now going, into the final hour, the indices are back into their hourly downtrend channels, with the longer range hourly stochastic model I use (length: 21), now all reversed back to bearish downside crossovers. Fed Beige Book report readers have noted concern by FED on strength of economic recovery. Only the COMP got briefly above my near term bullish pivot point for today (1740), but couldn't manage to sustain this minor rebound. Moreover, SPX, OEX, COMP, NDX, QQQ are trading again under the lows of last week. DJX looks like it is headed there in the final hour. Path of least resistance is sill down. Art the Cashin reports no real buyer motivation on the floor.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:26:33 PM
Cisco (CSCO) stock trades $14.50 +3.49% as AMCC sinks to session low. As such (per 09:00 commentary/analysis) have feeling based on observation that CSCO still a stock to be looking short. Will find "favor" on near-term bullish comments as institutions will "love" the stock, but I'm not seeing same type of bullishness from AMCC that is dependent on CSCO for business showing any type of strength.

60-minute chart of CSCO shows 50-pd MA up at $15.12 and monitor that for resistance. Working up a good entry point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:21:39 PM
Beige Book ... I have not read, but seeing some briefs that it cited widespread economic improvement, but concerns about the STRENGTH of the recovery.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:17:19 PM
May explain previous observation in Kronos (KRON) weakness from earlier downside alert at 01:36.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:16:04 PM
VeriSign (VRSN) $18.09 -16% ... also defensive in software. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:14:25 PM
Citrix Systems (CTXS) $12.85 -9.31% ... stock turning defensive here. Downgrade to "hold" from "strong buy" at UBS. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:13:00 PM
Trader's benchmarks have the Dow Indu +38 points, SPX +2.95 points, NASDAQ Comp +1.06 points, QQQ -0.11 point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:10:40 PM
Beige Book report just released. This is not a "number" per say, but observations made about various sectors/regions of the economy. Traders are alert to its release, but now begins the time for analysts and economists to begin reading through the report. Sometimes market action will be responsive to certain highlights in the report. Be alert!

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  2:09:57 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: Internet Index (INX) - Amazon (AMZN) is the big mover (16.49) in this sector today. Stock rebounded 4/11 from low end of its daily (chart) uptrend channel at 12.52. Now AMZN looks headed up to high end of that channel, which intersects around 18.5 currently. However, there is another key area, just overhead in 17.00-17.70, where the stock topped out in Apr-May-July of last year. Late-March peak was 16.9. A close above 17.5 has the stock looking positive, but an upside objective then is not that far above this. Over the coming month, AMZN looks like it could reach 20, but once in that area, its likely there is a lot of supply; i.e, holders of the stock who are likely to be willing sellers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  2:07:40 PM
Natural Gas The American Gas Association reports that U.S. Natural Gas inventories rose 60 bcf in the latest week; the estimate was for a withdrawal of 0-10 bcf. May Nat. Gas futures (ng02k) -2.25% at $3.51/btu

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  1:58:47 PM
QUALCOMM (QCOM) $33.28 +3.19% ... stock has bounced back from session lows of $31.29. Trader short/put the stock monitoring the N. American Telecom Index (XTC.X) at 573 +2.58% on rally back to downward trend from bar chart after break to upside of "inside day" in the XTC.X. This may actually have some bears in the sector doing some covering near-term. Link

Combined Telecom (IXTCX) has exhibited weaker technicals than XTC.X as IXTCX pattern of lower lows and lower highs obvious.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  1:52:53 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: Semiconductor Index (SOX): - SOX has been unable to hold its up trendline dating from the Sept. bottom -- however, yesterday's, and today's intraday low has nevertheless kept above the early-month lows in 548-548 area. This keeps some hope alive for a rebound ahead. BTW, close below this area, would suggest beginning of a new down leg. I had suggested in Sector Trader, a possible purchase of the May 650 calls (SOW EJ), which at the time, just after a huge (4/16) 1-day SOX run up, were quite expensive, but have gotten back down to earlier levels around 2.40. The June 640 calls have changed hands today around 16.5, down from a peak of 65 on 3/8 when SOX closed at 638 - volatility anyone?!. Still like the call play, if SOX does hold those prior lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  1:36:48 PM
Kronos (KRON) $39.36 -2% ... getting alert to downside here that we set yesterday. Stock still edging lower on mid-point of our regression channel, but break much below could see decline to short-term traders target near $36.50. Link

See yesterday's MM at 02:16:25 Link

Tip! you can press the "ctrl" and "F" keys at the same time to open up a FIND function. Then type in the symbol or word you want to search for in the browser and it will take you there.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  1:34:23 PM
Treasury Watch Things may now get interesting in the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) from a technical perspective. Previously we showed this YIELD on a daily chart and place an upward regression channel on it. As time has passed, YIELD now at 5.136% and sitting right on the base of this lower YIELD trend. Technicians monitor closely to see if MARKET votes on a direction.

While this chart doesn't have the regression on it, Link you can perhaps see how a sharp jump higher in YIELD (selling in the bond) could have MACD turning around, while a sharp break lower in YIELD (buying in the bond) could be interpreted as a defensive move and have MACD "spilling" lower.

A move lower in YIELD could find weakness in stocks and and Dow Industrials (INDU) index trader then ties in with his/her point/figure chart.

A move higher in YIELD could find bids being put under stocks, and then explains relentless support in the Dow Indu above the 10,500 level.

Trader gets the feeling something is about to give, thus recent session's mentioning of good straddle/strangle trade in the DJX.X.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  1:22:53 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: Internet Index ($INX.X) - Recently, thought a trading play on calls on a represenative stock in this sector looked interesting based on INX having retreated to low end of its broad downtrend channel around 98. A good-sized trading bounce looked possible. Yesterday's INX look closed under the lower channel line, but today's bounce back has it back in channel -- possible bear trap reversal bottom? - ie, new low for a move followed by an immediate rebound. Maybe, time will tell if a rally gets going based on more than just Amazon - more on AMZN in a sec. Call play highlighted in Sector Trader at Link was Juniper May 15 (JUX EC)calls, today trading at .05 -- they were recently as high as .80. The May 12.5's (JUX EV) are .25. Stock has held an emerging up trendline dating from its early-March low.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  1:06:37 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: Oil Services (OSX) - Speaking of possible tops, daily highs since 3/20 keep hitting the same levels at 104-105. This sector may be forming a top. An upside penetration of this level is needed to achieve a bullish breakout and suggest a new up leg. This trading pattern probably has something to do with the chart picture for crude oil now trading at 26.29, as nearby crude futures have not been able to climb back to the prior highs in the $28 area. Looks to me like there is another down leg coming in crude oil prices. Sector play on oil service stocks by shorting or buying puts on those that appear they might be topping or at top end of a range, looks interesting: e.g., Haliburton (HAL), Nabors Industries (NBR), Schlumberger (SLB), Smith International (SII), and Global Industries (GLBL).

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  12:43:12 PM
SECTOR UPDATE: XAU (Gold & Silver Index) at 75.09, has clearly achieved technical break out and is no longer showing a double top. I threw in the towel on XAU puts, on yesterday's opening -- after Mon. close that exceeded prior closing high at 72.33. While the per ounce price of gold, based on the nearby futures contract, has not exceeded ITS possible double top in the $307-309 area, the mining stocks, etc. are still climbing, suggesting that this sector is looking ahead at production cutbacks or other supply-related fundamentals. Demand is holding up in U.S., less so in the slow global economy. Beside the obvious MidEast political tenderbox and rising oil prices, what else gives is not clear. Less mining and central bank gold sales seems to be key. Mainly, I argue with the tape at my peril. I suggested the put play, based on possible double top -- once that was negated, my reasons for the bearish play went away.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  12:32:00 PM
Index Update - pivot points: To recap and put all the near Index resistance points in one place, the following are pivotal -- trade above the level suggests possibility of further upside -- below the level, the index is still trading within downtrend channel or below some key resistance. SPX - 1110; OEX - 550; DJX - 101.7-102; COMP - 1740; NDX - 1340; QQQ - 34.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  12:23:14 PM
Semiconductor Equipment P/F charts

Here are some equipment stocks and their associated technicals based on p/f charting.

AMAT Link trades above trend and bullish vertical count is $40. To bullish trend, risk/reward from $26 is $6/$14

VSEA Link trades above trend and bullish vertical count is $70. To bullish trend, risk/reward from $49 is $10/$21.

NVLS Link trades above trend. BEARISH vertical count is to $39. However, a trade back above $55 would have bullish count of $67. To bullish trend, risk/reward from $50 is $2/$17 for bullish trade.

KLAC Link trades above bullish trend and bullish vertical count is $74. To bullish trend, risk/reward from $64 is roughly $3/$10

Interesting thoughts here perhaps. Very good risk/reward trades at hand in NVLS and KLAC, but slightly weaker technicals. May then have us thinking that if equipment is going to be strong going forward, then institutions should be bidding NVLS and KLAC here. If they begin breaking down further and giving sell signals after a break in trend, then trader in AMAT and VSEA observe deterioration in semi-equipment and get more defensive.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  12:22:02 PM
Index Update: - They're back! Minor rally is hanging on after faltering earlier, especially COMP. Initial rally was arrested right around time that new March Durable Goods orders was reported - at a drop of -.6%, a disappointment to traders. As mentioned earlier on the Monitor, expectations were for a slightly plus number. There was a fall off in orders for cars, computers and telecom. This was a negative, as it confirms that there is yet no tangible sign of a pickup in business spending yet (re computer orders). Defense spending -- surprise! -- helped keep the new Orders number from falling more than it did. Of course, the Market would rather see PC purchases over cruise missles - the former helps productivity and has more of a business ripple effect. When are they going to take out those checkbooks? While business spending is not a huge part of GDP, it is the segment that could get the economy humming.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  12:08:22 PM
Good Morning Jeff I've been looking at VSEA. Would greatly appreciate your insite on this stock.

Good morning to you too! Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates (NASDAQ:VSEA) $48.80 +7.27% .... I "like the name" as we've mentioned before that "semi-equipment" looks to be the strongest sub-sector of technology.

Some similar bullishness in VSEA technicals as those we've been noting in Applied Materials (AMAT). For VSEA we find longer-term bullish vertical count of $70. Note how stock seems to "reverse" itself from the pullback right near upper ends of past consolidation? Link

To be truthful, I like the pattern in VSEA, but to also tell the trugh, I've never heard of them. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but think about this.

"pretend" you know just enough to be dangerous in the stock market. Some guy tells you that Applied Materials (AMAT) $26.14 and Varian Semiconductor (VSEA) $48.76 are both bullish looking stocks with similar % upside and downside. Which would you buy?

Funny, but there have been some study's that a $26 stock will often time find more buyers than a $47 stock, simply due to price. If you think company's split their stocks 2:1 just for the heck of it, you're wrong. They do it to be able to attract the little guy. While you and I know that a stocks price has no impact on whether or not we buy (because we trade equally weighted $ amounts per our trading discipline, so do institutions) there are a lot of MARKET participants that don't.

Don't get me wrong on VSEA, but if I were only to buy 1 semiconductor equipment stock right now, it would be the sector giant, trading for roughly $26. We do take note of the bullishness in VSEA. If you've done some research and see a new product that looks to have "superior" future potential than an AMAT offering, I won't talk you out of it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  11:20:00 AM
Medtronic (MDT) $45.66 -0.3% ... good point of observation here. Stock has been "oscillating" back and forth from 200-day MA. One of these days, instituttions are going to "make up their mind" on this stock and a technical level is going to be "pegged" and then rejected. I think to the upside in MDT. Link

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  10:44:13 AM
Index levels to watch: Nasdaq - KEY to the Composite (COMP)over next few hours, is whether hourly lows in 1724 area will hold. Bulls have to lift the COMP back above 1740 to get some upside MO going. 1760 is next resistance; low end of hourly downtrend channel, is down in 1670 area. Path of least resistance still looks to be DOWN. Nasdaq 100 (NDX)had a minor bounce in the first hour that lasted as long as the Bears could get out of their caves this morning. Resistance > 1340, then a struggle up to 1360 which will be tough to surmount; Support > recent hourly lows at 1316 ??? MAYBE -- trend is still down, so looking at low end of downtrend channel & 1270 area is a possible way lower target. QQQ - 34-34.5 looks like serious resistance; near support > 32.50-32.70; then, 31.50 area, if the Q's continue lower within its current hourly downtrend channel.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:39:07 AM
TRW accepts Northrop's proposal to open their books for review, however TRW (NYSE:TRW) $54.78 -0.09%, rejected Northop's (NYSE:NOC) $117.00 -0.3% two other proposals to create an independent committee to review the bid and that the board do everything possible to create shareholder value.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:31:02 AM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 98.61 +3.31% ... getting a bounce today after holding just above an old downward trend dating back to 01/08/01 high, then attached to 08/01/01 high, has extension of that trend serving as support last couple of months.

200-day MA still trending lower and XAL.X seems to want to gravitate near this longer-term MA. DIVERGENCE away from the MA could trigger markets. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:25:07 AM
Securities Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) 475.89 -1.38% ... key technicals here have XBD.X sitting right on a trying-to-round higher 200-day MA. Break back below would be more defensive. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:22:02 AM
CA seeing trades below $18.95, this is break below "inside day". Bears shorting here, stop above yesterday's high, targeting $16.50. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:18:45 AM
Computer Assoc. (CA) $18.95 ... looks like a short coming in at $18.97 and looking for some up ticks. Showing some size of 40K, now 24.7K at $18.97. Bids are backing off, would be looking short here.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  10:18:01 AM
Index Levels to watch: DJX - NOT LOOOKING TOOO GOOOOD HERE, as the buying interest appears to have faded faster than you can say SELL! The 100.5-100.7 area looks pretty key as it has marked recent hourly lows. Of course, 10,000 on the Dow is seen as being key psychological support. If 100 is taken out on DJX, well, look out below. Right now 100 is at the low end of the hourly downtrend price channel, so the funds may defend this area for a time. Time will tell. 99 looks like a next stop if fear & loathing continues in the blue chip sector. 96 is key major support, implied by the Feb. low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:15:20 AM
Computer Assoc. (CA) $18.99 -0.21% ... last night we mentioned that Wall Street Journal article on NYSE short interest had CA as one of the stocks. Did some technical work last night. I like the stock short/put on break of yesterday's low (inside day) and target the $16.25 level near-term.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:07:14 AM
QCOM I like the July $30 puts (AAWSF) $2.85 for bearish traders.

As discussed in recent session, p/f chart is bearish and vertical count hints at $25. Telecom is weak and recent action has bears rather aggressive in the group.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:05:49 AM
QAULCOMM (QCOM) $31.62 -1.79% ... stock giving back all of early morning gains and breaking below yesterday's low. Stock looks defensive. Trader talk is the Bear Stearns just made cautious comments; advising to sell into rally.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  10:02:30 AM
New Home Sales for March come in -3.1% to 878K, which was slightly weaker than the 884K consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:51:53 AM
Ryland Group (RYL) $107.90 ... stock unchanged after reporting earnings of $1.83 a share, handily beating estimates that ranged from $1.10-$1.30 a share. Company raised earnings guidance by $0.75 a share to $10.25 for full year EPS.

As pointed out yesterday, technicals have stock trading right at upper band of regression and may find technical resistance at current levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:47:44 AM
Phelps Dodge (PD) $37.25 +1.27% ... reports earnings loss of $0.56 a share, which was better than consensus looking for loss of $1.02. The world's largest copper producer said results were hurt by soft copper demand.

Technicals have Phelps (PD) trading just above lower end of upward regression. A break much below the $35.50 level would be violation back below a trying to round out 200-day MA.

As in Freeport McMoran's (FCX) earnings report, demand does not seem present in the industrial metal complex, yet firming prices in the futures contracts looks to be that of lesser production levels.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  9:45:26 AM
Index Update: - Levels to watch: SPX - SPX needs to hold at or above 1099-1100 to get something going. 1099.41 was intraday low of last week (4/15). Support below this area, looks like 1090, at low end of hourly downtrend channel. Near resistance > 1110; then, about 10 pts higher, at 1120. So far, this little bounce is underwhelming! OEX would need to climb above 545-546 to get something going here -- but a move above 550 is a better indication that there are some folks out there willing to put some money to work and do a little bargain basement shopping. I highlighted 534 last night on my Index Trader summary at Link as a next potential downside target, at the low end of the hourly downtrend channel.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:37:12 AM
Synthetic hedge trader most likely buying AMCC here at $7.03 and selling short CSCO $14.24. (per 09:00 commentary).

Note... a "hedge" is based on $ value, not number of shares.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:29:49 AM
Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) While only 30 stocks are part of this indicator, the 53.3% level of bullishness is also "mid field" and traders will note February's low level was 50% when Dow reached low of 9,600, then shot higher over 1.5 month period to $10,600. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:26:56 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) key technicals for traders to be monitoring... Trade at $10,050 could be trigger point for further selling, while $10,400 could see sharp move higher. If you're a straddle/strangle options trader, very good trades to be had here I believe. Link

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  9:26:42 AM
Index Update: Since we got down into some technical support areas yesterday and the indexes are oversold on a short-term basis, we could get a rally going today if there are no more tech wrecks or other earnings disasters. There are some key economic reports due so all eyes turn to the government. March durable goods orders are expected to rise slighty -- up .1 percent. March new home sales are talked about as being between 800-900,000, closer to 900K actually. The Fed Beige Book report will be out on economic conditions. How dull, maybe they should start putting it out in a bright red or some other cheerful color -- well, maybe NOT red -- how about green? for an improving economy.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:23:16 AM
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $11.78 ... stock ticking higher at $12.16 after Merrill Lynch upgrades to "near-term buy" from "neutral" after the company reported better than expected results; firm fundamentally favors XMSR over SIRI and believes that a ratings differentiation is warranted. Merrill places $15 "fair value" price on XMSR.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:18:16 AM
Gaming stocks CIBC downgrading some gaming stocks in HET $50.09 Link , AGY $39.34 Link and PENN $37.65 Link to "buy" from "strong buy" based on valuation.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   4/24/02,  9:16:50 AM
It's Showtime! Today's pre-opening buzz is much about Amazon's (AMZN)results announced last night, when the company indicated it had sharply narrowed its losses from the year-ago quarter. Amazon also guided its current year revenue estimates higher. 1 cemt a share loss versus 21 cents a year ago and a quarterly sales jump of 21 percent caught the attention of market participants who has been busy shedding tech and net stocks over the past couple of weeks. The Amazon news has led to the starling idea that there are some net companies, besides Yahoo and E-Bay, that could actually make some money doing what they do in front of all those eyeballs. Myself, I love Amazon, especially those better prices and free shipping, at least at X-mas time and on orders over 99 bucks.

Nasdaq futures are trading up about 10, S&P up by 1-2 pts. and DJ futures are trading 20+ higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/02,  9:13:08 AM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $14.01 ... ticking higher in pre-market at $14.25 after Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein upgrades to "hold" from "sell" due to valuation; firm believes current price of $14 discounts concerns over risk to valuation from managements perrenial optimism as well as concerns that the recovery in the enterprise market would not be sufficient for CSCO to reach its goals. Dresdner leaves price target at $13.

 
 

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