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  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  4:37:33 PM
Subscriber QUESTION: " CSCO not really moving either direction - resting. Do you like BRCM ahead of Wednesday? it too is resting today. "

RESPONSE: Well, Cisco Systems (CSCO) is 'resting' but that "rest" is above the high end of a sizable gap -- based on today's close, there has been a 20% jump from the 13.08 close last week, before the gap event. If a stock holds a 20% gain it may not be moving but it's sure far from doing nothing. BRCM (Broadcom Corp) appears to be consolidating above $25. Stock has retraced more than 75% of its Sept - Feb. advance. Tempting to think that stock might retest lows made in the 18-19 area. However, stock has held low end of its downtrend channel and a bullish RSI/price divergence has set up, plus stock is oversold. Rally potential perhaps back up to 31.70 area which is likely going to be tough resistance -- at low end of trading range from late-Feb. to late-April.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  4:25:42 PM
Pivot Trade Wrap (What is this?) Link

The day began with an upgrade to AMAT by Goldman Sachs. They cited "signs of accelerating tech spending" as the reason to raise estimates above consensus. This powered KLAC, NVLS and the rest of the group. This sets up two scenarios. If AMAT has good news you could make the case that the news is now priced in. If the news is bad then the reaction to the downside could equal the Cisco reaction to the upside last week.

The indexes all stopped right at resistance. Dow 10100, S&P 1075 and Nasdaq 1650. Failure to move over these levels could indicate the chip rally may have run its course. Several readers mentioned that bears were probably scared to short the rally in case we had another Cisco type event. This could easily be true. The volume was very light with the NYSE barely hitting 1B and the Nasdaq holding near 1.4 billion. The TRIN and the VIX both crashed on the strong market gains.

IBM posted a +2.50 gain ahead of its analyst meeting on Wednesday. IBM could be the spoiler to any good AMAT news but that is sheer speculation.

The SPX short signal at 1064.50, which was not triggered this afternoon, is cancelled.
We will pick a new SPX entry point on Tuesday. Normally we will not want to open a position in the first 30 min of trading even if our triggers are hit. The reason of course is the tendency for big reversals during the morning volatility period. See you at 9:15 !

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  4:02:45 PM
Index Update: COMP - Faltering a bit still shy of key resistance in 1660 area. 5-hour stochastic is on a downside sell signal, so beware. If 1660 area is seen and if it's a defection (resistance) point, I would look to be a seller in Nasdaq indices on short-term trading basis. NDX is at or just under its upper trendline resistance in 1250 area, where I would be seller/put buyer. QQQ is at or just under trendline resistance in 31 area - I favor selling this area, with tight stops at 31.50. Would look to re-short in 32 area if the Q's can manage to get above 31.5 - doubt however, that QQQ can get above 31. This is still a "technical" rally so its legs are not big, as there is not any solid bullish fundamental outlook on tech.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  4:00:42 PM
Overture Services (OVER) $17.10 +0.52% ... stock sure didn't rally much today and hints out of favor near-term. Bear short from current levels should be ok and waiting on a collapse.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  3:53:16 PM
Pivot Trade Signals
The Pivot Trade model is going into the close flat unless a major breakdown in the SPX occurs and our 1064.50 trigger is hit. I doubt it! The QQQ trade was disappointing. The trigger was 30.40 and it hit 30.38 for several ticks to trigger the signal. I set both the open trigger to close to the prior lows and then set the stop loss too close to the prior highs. I still think $30.40 is the correct entry point for the short but we will edge it down slightly tomorrow. The Dow stopped dead on resistance at 10100 and the S&P at 1075. This may indicate that the chip rally has run out of steam until after AMAT announces after the bell on Tuesday. Either way Tuesday/Wednesday should be exciting.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  3:46:56 PM
Index Update: DJX - finally broke out above its hourly downtrend channel, and (again) is back above its 21-day moving average - putting DJX back into an uptrend. DJX now also has punched above the upper resistance boundary of the WEEKLY downtrend channel - also significant technically as longer-term uptrend may be reasserting itself. In one way the fact that DJX didn't break below its 200-day moving average recently was already suggesting that up trend was intact. Next important moving average resistance test is at 102.7 at 50-day average.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  3:42:16 PM
QQQ $30.95 +4.7% ... short-term bulls that averaged up at $30.61 (from 02:06:58) .... I'd sell Friday's bullish position from $29.68 and hold the $30.61 overnight, stop $30.35.

Bulls only holding the $29.68 entry from Friday can hold overnight, can once again look for gap tomorrow ahead of AMAT earnings, but keep stop at $30.35, which was profiled at 02:06:58.

Looks like the "day after Mother's Day" will extend itself to up 12 of last 14 and "Monday before expiration" extends to up 11 of last 12. Good trade into Friday's close for the bulls, don't let it slip away!

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  3:33:41 PM
Index Update: OEX - broke out of minor flag consolidation also and projects higher, especially if it can clear resistance at 535. Next resistance comes in around 540. Those long OEX calls from lower levels, bought today as a short-term trade, take the money and run if 540 is seen.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  3:33:04 PM
Server down - Yes, technology has its limits. One of the servers at our webfarm died as we moved into the last hour of trading. Rest assured when these things happen everyone springs into action but sometimes the problem requires a real person to actually touch a real server and it can't be done in seconds over cyberspace. Technology is then constrained by stop lights and speed limits and other mundane considerations. We thank you for your patience when these outages occur.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  3:30:56 PM
Index Update: SPX - broke out again to upside after consolidating in a bull flag. Target now projects to 1082, but there is resistance at 1080 at the hourly down trendline. Those still holding SPX calls on my suggestion from 1060 area, with stop at 1066.5, suggest taking profits at 1080 if reached.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  3:12:47 PM
Pivot Trade Exit Point Alert
The QQQ short was stopped out at 15:09 when it traded at the stop at $30.85. That was the high of the day and over the previous high of $30.82. Evidently I did not set the stop high enough at only three cents over the high. $31.00 would probably have been better. We will definitely have another chance here before the week is out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  2:46:55 PM
Cablevision (CVC) $19.74 -11.8% ... stock dropping in last hour on rumors of convertible deal, but have not seen any mentione of potential convertible.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  2:33:38 PM
Correction in today's 01:00 EST Update, I mistakenly wrote that bears might be a little edgy into "tonight's" earnings from AMAT.

AMAT reports earnings tomorrow night after the close of trading. Consensus among analysts are looking for the company to earn $0.02 a share.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  2:23:57 PM
Index Update - SPX: - my shorter stochastic model, measuring only 5 periods (hours, in this case) is now up to the high end of the scale, registering overbought. This is something some bullish traders won't ignore, as the recent history of rallies, is that they have tended to fall apart when any degree of overbought is seen. The chart pattern continues look ok so far. I didn't mention hourly resistance at 1070 on my 12:19 update, as near resistance, but it is an area that SPX must get through to get up to 1080, where I see next resistance. If we start to drop below recent hourly lows in 1067 area, this suggests that a downside correction is setting up. On the plus side, the Arms Index (TRIN) is not showing any extreme in selling - last at .65 on NYSE and .50 on Nasdaq.

Trading update: Call purchases on my suggestion to get long SPX on a move above 1060, take profits now or set stops at 1066.5

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  2:21:45 PM
Pivot Trade Signals
I really want to raise the trigger on the SPX short to the 1067 area but everytime I look at it there is just too much uncertanity between 1065 and 1067. Aggressive traders might consider the 1067 (1066.75) level as an entry point but the official trigger will remain 1064.50.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  2:21:08 PM
Pivot Trade Signals
We have our first lower low of the afternoon at 13:51 on the S&P and our first lower high at 14:08. Could it be that the bulls are getting nervous as well?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  2:11:42 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $52.33 +4.49% ... strong bounce in last 10-minute from rising 50-pd MA on 5-minute chart. QQQ bull wants MSFT to hold the $52.00 level with 50-pd MA rising at $51.97.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  2:11:20 PM
Pivot Trade Signals
A reader pointed out that the bears may be reluctant to strongly short this rally in front of the AMAT earnings tomorrow because of the Cisco reaction last week. If AMAT said something positive the explosion could be as strong or stronger than the Cisco disaster. This could be provoking shorts to cover today and that is holding the markets up this afternoon. We will sit and watch patiently and see what happens.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  2:06:58 PM
QQQ $30.55 +3.38% .... recent hourly lows were $30.38, just above our stop of $30.35. QQQ trying to get back above the 50-pd MA on 5-minute interval of $30.60. If it can, then aggressive bull can come in with another shot at long, stop entire position of $30.35 and look for bullish action into the close.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  1:51:09 PM
Pivot Trade Entry Point Alert
The QQQ short was triggered at 13:45 when the QQQ traded below $30.40. Our stop loss on this trade will be $30.85 until further notice.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  1:48:58 PM
Pivot Trade Exit Point Alert
The SPX long was stopped out at 13:44 when it broke through the new stop at 1068.25. The SPX short signal remains at 1064.50.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  1:46:03 PM
Pivot Trade Entry Point Alert
The Nasdaq is easing off its high and I want to enter a trade signal for the QQQ based on the relative intraday support at 30.40. Should the QQQ trade below 30.40 I am recommending a short position. AMAT, one of the reaons for the Nasdaq rally today is trading weaker as well. This alert may never be triggered if strength reappears but we will be ready if something changes.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  1:45:21 PM
Pivot Trade Entry Point Alert
I am raising the entry point for the SPX short to 1064.50. The markets are showing additional afternoon weakness and I want to tighten up this trigger to take advantage of any drop.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  1:39:48 PM
Pivot Trade Exit Point Alert
The lack of follow through over the last hour is causing me concern. I am raising the stop loss on the SPX short to 1068.25 just above our entry point of 1068. If we trade up from here we will follow it up with a trailing stop but I want to err on the side of caution.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  1:26:28 PM
Pivot Trade Signals
The markets are still moving sideways with slight upward bias but 10100/1650/1075 are still looming above us. The Nasdaq is holding up exceptionally well on the chip company upgrades. The challenge here remains demand. When AMAT releases earnings on Tuesday after the close this entire bounce could disappear in an instant or double the following day. Bears will likely short this bounce in anticipation of negative news just like bulls bought the dip expecting positive news. The gains so far today are very fragile as we have seen from the drop at 12:35. Keep those stops tight!

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  1:18:54 PM
Subscriber QUESTION: "When you look at gaps do you use the close from the prior day or the high of the prior day? I thought it was the close and my broker uses the high."

RESPONSE: Upside chart gaps are measured from the TOP of the bar - the High in this case (hourly, daily, weekly, etc.) to the BOTTOM (Low) of the following bar that has created a price gap. Conversely, on downside gaps, we measure from the Low, to the High of next bar that created a gap; e.g., Sun Micro (SUNW) has a gap on the daily chart from the low of 8.03 on 4/30 to the High of 5/1 at 7.59, creating a gap from 7.59 - 8.03.

Your broker can do it any way he wants to, but using the close is not the standard definition for defining chart gaps. Unfortunately, in technical analysis, there is a lot of misconceptions on what these terms mean, even though it is easy to check a source book to find out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  12:53:38 PM
QQQ $30.55 +3.34% ... falling back below its 200-pd MA on 5-minute chart. On the alert here, profit stop firm at $30.35. 50-pd on the rise at $30.30.

MSFT $52.18 +4.27%... found support at its 200-pd MA on 5-minute chart at $52.00 and may provide support to QQQ on further bounce.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  12:48:44 PM
Subscriber QUESTION: "On CSCO, 15.80-15.90 holding on minor consolidation - you still feel we fill the gap down there?"

RESPONSE: I wait and watch on chart gaps. I don't expect anything usually except that upside gaps tend to act as support areas. If none of the gap is filled in as with Cisco, through this morning, this is the most bullish. Gap is from 5/7 high at 13.50 to 5/8 low at 15.15. Interestingly, lows of Friday and today are -- 15.15!

If a gap is partially or completely "filled in", with prices then rebounding, this is also bullish action. As long as the low end of the gap is not filled in, subsequent price action after the gap event suggests that there will be no lower lows for the correction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  12:47:04 PM
Intl. Business Machines (IBM) $81.36 +2.10% ... Friday's was an "inside day" and today's trade at $80.51 came to the upside. Not a bad little bullish trade for short-term trader with stop under Friday's low of $79.25 into analyst meeting. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  12:44:45 PM
IBM in the balance IBM $81.57 +2.37% could be very "key stock" for MARKET near-term. Analyst meeting on Wednesday could be pivotal for Dow Industrials and their ability to break out of current 10,150 to 9,800 range. Break to upside of 10,150 could have the bears coming unraveled. With bearish vertical count of 9,800, bears have come close to achieving that target 3-times, but unable to do so. Link

May have to price out an IBM $80 straddle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  12:32:14 PM
Jeff, could you give your assessment on Cubic Corp. (AMEX:CUB) $31.81 +5.19%?

Stock breaks to yet another 52-week high. Where were we at $17.50? If long, you're doing well. Stock exceeded bullish vertical count of $26 dating back to November 2000. Too tough to assess further risk/reward. Link and would simply snug a stop under the 50-day MA from bar chart at $23.71 if long the stock.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  12:31:08 PM
Index Update: Support & Resistances - COMP Resistance levels > 1643, then 1655 area; above this, 1665; Support > 1615; NDX - Resistance > 1240 area, then at 1252, at hourly downtrend line; QQQ - first resistance as indicated previously, at 31, at hourly downtrend line; above 31, next resistance > 31.9-32

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  12:21:20 PM
QQQ ($30.65) & MSFT ($52.26) both have traded back a bit and both sitting right on their 200-pd MA's from 5-minute chart (see 11:00 Intraday Update). Both QQQ and MSFT broke ABOVE this 200-pd MA after 11:00 update and "resistance broken is looked upon for support." Bulls want to see some near-term consolidation here or kick higher.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  12:19:18 PM
Index Update: Support & Resistance levels - SPX near resistance > 1080; support > 1058-1060; OEX near resistance > 535; support > 525-526; DJX near resistance > 101, then, 101.4-101.5; support > 100

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  12:14:29 PM
Notice that CNF is up over $33.25 today. Still holding June 35 Calls. Did round out/down to full position a while back. What do you read from the charts?

CNF $33.37 +6.61% ... is trucking transport that has been stuck between $30-$34 for past couple months. Link

Not sure of new cost basis in your trade, but should be break-even to positive. I do like today's bounce in Dow Transports ($TRAN) from 200-day MA. For CNF trade to work out from here, really need to see group catch some fire above the 50-day. Link

I do observe the trucking and Air package group have traded strong RELATIVE to the Air passenger stocks, which were weighing on the TRAN.

6% jump is pretty big for CNF on single day. To build, will have to see crude oil decline and take some fuel price worries away from group.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  12:12:10 PM
Index Update: SPX, OEX, DJX, COMP & NDX - Upside move has created crossover type buy signal on my longer 21-hour stochastic model --although its not my favorite "signal", as it didn't occur from a fully oversold level. The short-term 5-hour stochastic, a much quicker trigger, is already nearing a short-term overbought area. This suggests that when indexes hit first resistances overhead, they may set back. QQQ has not broken out to the upside yet and is a definite laggard here. Looks like there are plenty of sellers around in the Q's holding it down. Near-term breakout point is 31.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  11:51:16 AM
Pivot Trade Signals
The Dow is slowing as it nears resistance at 10100 and the lunch time lull begins. A move over 10100 would be bullish and cause more short covering but a roll over at 10100 would strengthen that resistance. Even stronger resistance is just below 10150. Nasdaq resistance is at 1650. This rally has a tough road ahead but we need to remember, "trade what the market gives us, not what we think it should be doing."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  11:47:11 AM
QQQ $30.74 +4% ... raising stop further from Friday's entry to $30.35 from this morning's $29.95 (see 10:14:21).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  11:43:51 AM
QQQ $30.74 +4% ... bold move above its 200-pd MA from 5-minute chart (see 11:00 Update). Now rolling to 30-minute chart to find 200-pd MA at $31.12. This 200-pd on time frame served as resistance late Wednesday before decline on Thursday morning.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  11:30:45 AM
Pivot Trade Entry Point Alert
We were triggered on the Long SPX signal at 11:26 when the SPX traded at the high of the day of 1068.17 for a couple of ticks. I want to keep a tight stop on this due to the weak follow through. I will make the stop 1064 since that has been just under the lows for the last hour.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  11:29:28 AM
Cisco (CSCO) $15.68 +1.68% .... key level here. This comes right at the 50-pd MA on daily chart and near-term resistance. Also right at extension of old upward trend on daily chart from 09/27/01 low attached to 02/27/02 low. Link

With CSCO's gains lagging the QQQ's +3.61%, would think CSCO bids here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  11:00:38 AM
Pivot Trade Entry Point Alert
The Dow/S&P are easing off their highs and I want to enter a trade signal based on the relative intraday support. Should that support be broken we want to be short until the bottom is found. The strongest intraday support for the S&P was between 10:15-10:30 at 1062.50. Based on the failed resistance at 1067 we want to target a short position should the S&P trade below 1062. This gives us a breakout signal at 1068 and a breakdown signal at 1062. The OEX range for a downside break would be 526 and 9980 on the Dow/DJX.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  10:35:31 AM
Index Update: S&P - SPX and OEX have both broken out above their down trendlines, so technical buy indication I spoke about is confirmed by this further bullish action.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  10:33:32 AM
Pivot Trade Entry Point Alert
Don't fight the trend! If the market is going to rally we will be glad to go along for the ride. The first level of resistance at 1063 has been broken and 1067 is next. If we trade through that level we should go long the SPX. The signal will be a trade above 1068. The same range on the OEX would be a trade over 530.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  10:32:23 AM
Index Update: Nas Composite (COMP) - continuing with the look at the upside chart gaps of last week, recent hourly lows dug down into about half the gap area. The susequent rebound from 1600 area, with the the chart gap "resisting" being filled in completely, is bullish action so far. If 1600 is retested again and holds support, this would be a confirming signal for a bottom. NDX, at recent hourly lows in 1185-1186 area, has also left some of the chart gap from last week unfilled, which is bullish -- suggesting that buyers are there on a retreat in this index to the area wheere Cisco news cause the original jump last week. QQQ low at 29.5, was both in a support area, but left a little bit of last week's gap unfilled -- between 29.35 and 29.50. Main thing with this gap stuff, is the possibility that indexes will NOT take out their prior lows. Stay tuned on that!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  10:30:03 AM
NASDAQ-100 Breadth further positive with 87 up and 13 down.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  10:18:00 AM
Index Update: DJX - Broken out above its hourly down trendline accompanied by a bullish crossover on the shorter 5-hour stochastic. Longer stochastic model I use (21) is not in an oversold area. Would prefer getting long if this one was oversold too, but off we go anyway.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  10:14:21 AM
QQQ $30.24 +2.3% ... short-term trader turns to 5-minute interval. Downward trend from 05/09 high now being tested. Needs strength above $30.35 to set stage for test of 200-pd ($30.74) on this 5-minute time frame.

Raising stop to profitability from $29.49 to $29.95.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  10:11:10 AM
Index Update: S&P - SPX has "filled in" its hourly chart gap from last week. Rebound that has followed this event is positive for a bottom. OEX, even more interesting action re hourly chart gap -- OEX did not fill in its upside gap, as it came right down to top of it at today's low, then has rebounded -- this is bullish type action also.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  10:10:26 AM
Pivot Trade Signals
The Dow/S&P are breaking out to new intraday highs. I reported earlier that resistance on the S&P is around 1063 to 1067. Because of this I would hesitate opening a new long play until we see if those levels blunt this rally. The first test at 1063 is only 2 points away for the S&P.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  10:08:00 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $50.70 +1.3% ... best levels of the session here. Prudential defending the stock saying it is skeptical about the Financial Times article this morning stating that MSFT faces much harsher antitrust action in the EU than it does in the US; while the company does face potentially serious penalties in Europe, Pru doesn't give this a high probability given the "truly extraordinary" amount of spin-doctoring and press manipulation being carried on by both sides.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  10:03:39 AM
NASDAQ-100 Breadth poistive with 70 up 30 down.

Gainers have IMCL +5.3%, BEAS +4.3%, CYTC +4.2%, ADLAE +3.91%, NXTL +3.08%.

Losers have WCOM -5.7%, ESRX, -2.9%, CHTR -2.9%, CPWR -2.5%, BRCD -2.15%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  10:01:14 AM
Dow Breadth positive with 22 up and 8 down.

Loser is Eastman Kodak (EK) -4.3%, T -1.5%.

Gainers are SBC +2.79%, INTC +2.18%, HPQ +1.7%, MCD +1.14%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  9:55:37 AM
QQQ $29.97 +1.35% ... spiking to best levels of the session here. Just announced is that U.S. and Russia have agreed to a treaty that would reduce nuclear stockpiles to a range of 1700-2200 warheads from approx. 6000. President Bush is due to travel to Russia to sign the treaty in Moscow later this month at a summit with Russian President Putin.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  9:47:53 AM
Pivot Trade Signals
The Friday end of day lows for the Dow/S&P are in danger of failing which would be a negative signal. The Dow low was 9922, Nasdaq 1599, OEX 522 (already penetrated) and SPX 1054. These should provide at least a temporary bounce but a failure could generate a new trade signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  9:47:39 AM
Hanover Compressor (HC) $14.71 -10% .... if long the underlying stock, would write the May $15 calls (HCEC) for longer-term investor, or cut the stock from the account. Link

Had profiled HC as bullish at $18.50, but the bearish resistance too strong and perhaps today's earnings announcement is why. Trade at $16 puts stock back on a sell signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  9:46:13 AM
Lands End (NYSE:LE) $61.75 +21% .... if long the stock or calls, would be a seller today on news of Sears (S) offer to buy. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  9:42:06 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $49.87 -0.29% .... one of the stocks in the NASDAQ-100 recently generating a buy signal that contributes to the turn higher in the bullish %. Thursday's brief trade at $55 was most likely instigated by market makers to trigger some bearish stops. As mentioned in the past, two bearish vertical counts hinted at a range of $47-$44. I'm monitoring stock rather close here. One of the better bullish risk/reward trades for institutions on the long side near-term. Vertical count is currently bullish to $68. A trade at $48 would have stock back on a sell signal. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  9:40:08 AM
Pivot Trade Signals
The initial impulse here is to jump in with a short as all the indexes weaken but we are still experiencing the morning volatility and we can easily go either way. Patience is a virtue best practiced for a few more minutes.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  9:35:13 AM
ON THIS DAY in 1846 the U.S. declared war on Mexico after fighting has already started. Wow, hard to belive that we fought with our friends, but worst was yet to come when North fought South. On this day in 1861, England declared its neutrality in our Civil War - they had enough of getting on the wrong side of their former colonies. In honor of this day, take a Brit to lunch at a Mexican restaurant. I would say, or, take a Mexican-American friend to a British restaurant, but I don't think you'll find one - how about a Pub instead? Have a pint and some Beef Wellington.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  9:32:04 AM
Pivot Trade Signals
Short term resistance for the indexes are as listed below. This will give an indication of where any opening bounce could fail.

SPX 1063 1067
QQQ 30.00 30.50
OEX 527.50 529.50
SPX 1063 1067
Nasdaq 1615 1635
DOW 10005 10030

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  9:26:58 AM
NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) still "bull alert" and added 1 stock to a buy signal on Friday. Link

It was Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) $59.10 that gave the buy signal. Link Personally, I don't like the way ERTS trades, so I don't attempt to trade it. Too choppy.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  9:25:10 AM
Index update: SPX I took a stab at peering into what today might bring and had in my index wrap (yesterday at Link )to "buy SPX calls in the 1040-1038 area, or on a move above 1060 if there is an upside reversal before 1040 is reached, especially if the reversal was from a double bottom around 1048. Risk 5 points from entry, with an objective to 1075." We'll see. Had to call this market until we see index action unfold intraday. Stay tuned.

 
 
  Jim Brown   5/13/02,  9:19:10 AM
Pivot Trade Signals (What is this?) Link
The futures are positive and it appears on the surface that we will open higher. Considering the S&P closed exactly in the middle of strong support between 1052-1057 this is not surprising. Also the TRIN closed at a very bullish 2.62 indicating an oversold bounce was due. The key question is whether this is simply an oversold bounce which will give us another entry point for a short play or is this a continuation of the bullish sentiment from Wednesday.

Time will tell but on Friday 24 of the 25 most active issues on the NYSE were down. Some in double digit percentages. This extremely negative sentiment has not disappeared but the pressure may need to be relieved before any support breaking selling can occur.

We will watch the open and wait for the morning volatility to ease before setting up the trade signals for today.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   5/13/02,  9:19:08 AM
It's showtime! We're due a bit higher this morning based on index futures. Bonds are under some pressure - lots of Government red ink this year, means lots of supply coming on the market. No blow up in the mid east this weekend, which is a positive backdrop. WSJ "What's News" reports that Greenspan suggested that the economy may be able to grow faster than productivity figures of the late-'90's indicate, as companies start to benefit from the past decade's investment binge.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  9:14:51 AM
QQQ $29.56 .... aggressive bulls from late Friday (03:57:55) at $29.68 looking good this morning and getting the "pop" at the open we were looking for. Will start with a stop at $29.49 and look to sell strength at $32.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   5/13/02,  9:11:17 AM
Good Mornin! Stock futures higher with S&P 500 +5.4 points, NASDAQ-100 +15.00 and Dow +50.00

 
 

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