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  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  10:24:56 PM
Swing Trade Game Plan - Click here: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  4:00:41 PM
The 3:15 PM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  3:57:02 PM
Affymetrix (AFFX) $19.84 +3.71% ... Level II had INCA as a solid seller at $19.61 most of the session, looks like he/she's gone and stock breaking out of consolidation on 60-minute chart. Looks higher to $21 near-term.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  3:53:18 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
The closing numbers for the last short signal were OEX 478.89, SPX 947.74, DIA 89.60, SPY 95.38, DJX 89.39, NDX 1032.16, Compx 1403.68, Emini 949.25. With the big drop to OEX 470 this morning and a 9 point OEX move I hope some of you closed out for a nice profit on the drop. This volatility is extremely tough to trade and like Jonathan said earlier, there is no such thing as a bad profit. With the recovery from both dips today I expect some bullish follow through tomorrow morning and there is no reason to risk holding overnight when indicators are not in your favor.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  3:48:52 PM
Buy Program at premium $+2.02

Dow +74, SPX +10.5, OEX +5.39, NDX +23,

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  3:48:46 PM
Looking at the economic calendar for the rest of the week, only Initial Claims for the week of August 17th remains on the docket (Scheduled for Thursday morning at 8:30). The Consensus is for a 385k number, down slightly from the prior week's release of 388,000. The 382k four-week average is just above the 17-month low reading; moreover, back-to-back rise in continued claims was only the third increase in 13 weeks. Event calendar looks light as well, while earnings that jump out at me include BKS, CIEN, LTD, MYGN, and SKO before the open on Thursday.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  3:46:54 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Close the open SHORT position now at OEX 478.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  3:46:29 PM
Volatile times, best to grab a profit whenever we have one--even though smaller than we had hoped for.

Well put, Denise. As Jim says, enter passively, exit aggressively. There's no such thing as a bad profit.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  3:46:13 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Just got back and it looks like we are exactly where we were when I left. Glad to see it was a flat and boring day! (grin) Shucks, only a 200 point swing on the Dow, I would have thought Jeff could have managed better than that. Guess I won't leave him in charge of the markets anymore.

Not knowing what drove the markets and hearing only scattered news reports I have no opinion going into the close. Being -100 points off the high and +100 points off the lows would seem to indicate the bull/bear battle was still in full swing and very close to a draw. I would give the edge to the bulls going into the close based on the rising up volume, strongly positive ticks and rising A/D line. The question now is do we close the short here at 479 where we entered or see if the 481 top holds again. I think I am going to vote to close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  3:45:12 PM
There's some chop developing on the COMPX below 1400, confusing the oscillators. The TRINQ is still very low at .30, and a closing reading at this level, which indicates an overbought COMPX, should have bulls at least a little uneasy for tomorrow. Well, I would be, for what it's worth. Breadth has deteriorated a bit, with 1,197M advancing shares to 226M declining, which is less than the 11:1 ratio we saw earlier.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  3:17:50 PM
Are you closing the shorted QQQ tonight or levae it for tomorrow?

It would have been stopped out the move to 1410. If you're still in the trade, I'd set a trailing stop on it and just let it ride. Support is at 1380, then 1355-60, but the COMPX is trying to bounce here, and again, a higher low would be quite bullish. Better to lower your stop and either get closed out or let it follow the QQQ down, depending on which way it goes for the rest of the session. If you're in back month contracts, you could set the trailing stop wider.

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  3:15:48 PM
Reader Question: I think I have a good play. Will you check out the SEBL Sep 10 call. Large volume today and I probably can pick em up for .50. Current price of SEBL is 9.45. Could do a syn on the 10 put for a credit spread. You opinion is appreciated.

Referring to a bull put spread.

buy sebl sep 10 SCQ IB ask .55

sel sebl sep 10 SGQ UB bis 1.05

thanks john

Response:John, looking at the option symbols in this trade, it appears you are trying to buy the Sep 10 call and sell the Sep 10 put. If you do this, you have synthetically purchased the stock at $10, and collected 0.55 (if you are able to buy the calls for 0.50). Therefore, you have done the equivalent of purchasing the stock for $9.45 (really no advantage with the stock trading $9.45).

A look at the current prices shows the Sept 10 call offered at $0.50 and the Sep 10 put bid at $1.15, with the stock trading $9.20. If you do this trade at these levels, you are still synthetically buying the stock at $10 and collecting 0.65, which is like buying the stock for $9.35 (or 0.15 higher than you could purchase it in the open market). These relationships, between calls and puts, are very finite, and market makers rarely let them get out of line to the point where you can take advantage of them in one single trade.

You referred to this as a bull put spread, however what you are really doing is buying a long combo, which is also bullish, as it replicates the long purchase of stock.

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  3:09:42 PM
With the bond market now closed, volatility should take center stage as indices look for guidance from each other. The September bond closed only 11 ticks lower at 109-23 (quoted in price, so lower price means higher yields), while the curve ended slightly steep - better bid in five years, defensive towards equities but not significant. Sectors outperforming include Networking, Biotech, Disk Drive, and Dow Transportation index.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  2:57:07 PM
Now could get out where I got in--but how do you think it is looking? that rally sure fell apart fast,huh? your last post indicates we are nearing overbought?

The shorter intraday 5(3) stochastics are now in oversold territory on the heels of this whipsaw blast downward. The 30 and 60 minute 5(3) have rolled over from overbought, the daily is trying to cross from overbought, and the weekly has entered overbought territory but is obviously still pointing north, and shows no sign of rolling over just yet. The TRINQ has made it up to .36, which is a lot less extreme than the .17 it was showing a few minutes ago. The COMPX made it down to 1392 but is now returning upward, currently 1395. Direction here is anybody's guess, but I'd watch the shorter stochastics as they begin to run north again. If this continues back up, we'll have a higher low which would be quite bullish here. However, the move to 1410 was perfect to flush out shorts before its reversal. The longer trend as implied by the 30, 60 and daily stochastics should be down, and there seems to be more risk in a bullish trade at these levels. I'd continue to watch 1400. Better to be stopped out and preserve your capital than to get trapped in a bad trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  2:36:11 PM
If you love it at .22, you must love it even more now that it's at .17. Pls comment. ML

Yes, exactly. I love it even more when all of the stochastics, from weekly to 1 minute, are at or approaching overbought. Add bad political and economic news and a perfect short setup is born. However, price is the only action, and one can't trade the TRINQ or the QQV on their own. Follow the indicators to place your trades, but be sure to set and respect stops. Ultimately, price will do what it wants, and the indicators will report what they see.

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  2:20:01 PM
Gold (XAU.X) did continue to weaken; however, the dollar failed to make a run higher as the afternoon approached. Interest also has seemed to dry up in the bond pits, with the 30-year bond only down 14 ticks at 109-20. Profiled earlier this morning, the Networking Index did manage to keep rallying - currently up 5.85 percent at 134.96.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  2:14:20 PM
We have 989M advancing shares to 87M declining and the TRINQ at .17. The COMPX has made it all the way to 1410, and that should have hit the stops of bears who took on new positions just under 1400. The QQV is down 1.07 to 39.74, and QQQ is currently trading at 25.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  2:01:36 PM
The 1:00 PM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  1:26:25 PM
Reader Question: Hi Steve,looking at the action in NEWP,even after warning last night, the stock is going baanana........any rational on this.......Should we use this crazy behavior as a short oppotunitie? Thank you for your valuable comments....

Response: Newport (NEWP) $19.09 (+0.84) This stock was in a rectangle formation from the middle of June until yesterday. The rectangle, which is approximately $3.00 (between $14 and $17) in height, would give a minimum objective of $20 on a breakout to the upside. The stock is already over $19, but an upside breakout from a pattern that was well defined for over 2 months looks bullish and I don't see it as a great short candidate.

One more note. I'm listening to president Bush describing new possibile military initiatives, and when asked about going to war with Iraq, he said "it didn't come up" in his meeting. If that's not a hint that were getting ready to attack, I don't know what is. (Excuse me if I sound like Mel Gibson in Conspiracy Theory).

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  1:22:43 PM
The September Bond (USU2) has been in a relatively tight range all day; however, the yield curve has gotten a tad "steeper" - which should cap any move higher for equities. The dollar is off its lows and might make a run back to the 107.50, while Gold issues continue to slowly drift lower. I would put more emphasis on the dollar than bonds at this point. Looking at 30-year yields, I would not be surprised to see yields remain near current levels and prepare traders for more volatility during the next few days.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  1:11:25 PM
That was exciting! Bulls and bears got nose-to-nose at the 1400 level, and bulls peeked out over the top. The struggle is certainly not over. There are currently 781M advancing COMPX shares to 103M declining. The TRINQ isn't even twitching at .23. Despite this, however, bond yields are up a little less on the day than earlier, but it doesn't detract from the bullishness of this strong push at resistance. Just keep your stops tight and we'll see how this pans out.

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  1:09:10 PM
Mercury Interactive $28.12 (+1.79) OI bullish Watch List candidate MERQ continuing its upward momentum after inside day yesterday. $30.09 would fill gap from June 12, and above is the 200-dma of $32.40 as resistance. This stock looks like a good long candidate. $27 created a triple top breakout on the PnF and $28 confirmed the move by getting us past a possible "bull trap."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  12:59:24 PM
Did any bears forget to breathe there?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  12:50:55 PM
Well, here we are back at the ceiling on the COMPX, currently 1395. The TRINQ hit .22 on that move, now .25. I used to cheerfully buy puts on any move in the TRINQ approaching this level, but this is a market for careful traders only. Bears can put on their shorts here, but with a tight stop right overhead on the other side of COMPX 1400. Allowing for the standard stop-flushing manipulation, stops around 1405 to 1410 would be appropriate, but the stop you set is a function of account management, which is personal to each of you. Less aggressive traders can sit it out, as cash is an excellent position in choppy markets like we've been seeing lately.

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  12:28:04 PM
I continue to believe the Dollar (DX00Y) will have a significant influence over equities in the near term. Currently at 107.14, this Index did test yesterday's low of 106.77 before turning higher. The index also traded above yesterday's high of 107.43 (today's intra day high of 107.64) and is currently above the mid-Bollinger line of 107.05. I do have a bullish slant towards the dollar; however, price action has kept the index in "no man's land"; therefore, one thing that is for certain is an increase in volatility. This should spill over to equities.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  12:17:15 PM
The TRINQ is getting buried again on this move up, currently .27. The QQV is down .05 on the day, and bond yields haven't moved much, still green on the day. The TICK.NQ is +117, and price is at 1392, headed back for the top of the range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  11:49:00 AM
5-year YIELD tested 50-pd MA on 60-minute chart. Stocks firmed from pullback. Equity bull would like to see a YIELD break above today's high YIELD of 3.349%. Link

10-year YIELD also testing similar 50-pd MA on 60-minute chart. Equity bulls want YIELD to hold, equity bear wants a YIELD break lower. Link

30-year YIELD edged below this 50-pd MA on 60-minue chart and stays there. May the the "technical" to look for DIVERGENCE from 50-pd MA near-term. Link

By using the three bonds on this time frame, can kind of keep score. 2 ABOVE and 1 BELOW has me leaning toward bullish side for equities. I like using "odd numbers" as lesser chance of a tie.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  11:48:27 AM
The 11:00 AM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  11:47:13 AM
Gold And Silver Index (XAU.X), lower by 1.68 percent at 61.93, did go underneath the relative low set on August 19th of 61.61 (intra-day low of 61.55) for a brief time. Is this a trap? Both the Dollar and Gold are lower, which is suspicious. Moreover, I am more inclined to see the Dollar rise and Gold fall; based on a better technical pattern. Therefore, if a trader decided to go long gold here - use a very tight stop.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  11:21:22 AM
Sure enough, that triangle on the 1 minute chart just failed, with price moving north to 1384. Beware 1 minute chart formations!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  11:16:34 AM
What's being drawn on the COMPX 1 minute chart could be construed by an overly hopeful, squinty-eyed bear as a descending triangle, which is a continuation pattern and should break south. Of course, formations come and go on the fickle 1 minute chart, and hope does not a good trader make. The TRINQ is at .60, which, while higher on the day, is still on bull turf. The QQV is up 1.68 on the day, and bond yields are up a little less than previously today. COMPX 1380 remains the magnet, and 1400 remains the top so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  11:04:30 AM
Inside Day What is it? and How it's traded. Can find an explanation in the Bailey's Basics section at this Link

Short-term traders only, or those swing-traders perhaps looking for some type of entry point for bullish or bearish trade entries.

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  11:04:14 AM
The Dollar is once again unable to break above the aforementioned bearish trend line which began back in February. Currently down fractionally at 107.29 and below its intra-day high of 107.64, it would make sense to expect more dollar-denominated selling (bonds, equities, etc.) in the near term. What else to watch? September Bond (USU2), down 17 ticks at 109-17 and seems to be trading "heavy" (read: significant overhang supply). Looking at the yield curve (in my opinion a better read on equities), the 5/10 year spread is basically flat; therefore, I will continue to focus on the dollar.

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  10:54:28 AM
Reader Question: Steven: Thanks for all your insight; recently ALK was included in the watch list as a probable SHORT if traded over $25; now trading over that price; any thoughts? specially with all the sector problems? Thanks Ernesto

Response: Alaska Air $24.99 (+0.49) I believe we were looking for a rollover below $25. The stock broke above $25, and is now on its way back down. Since $25 did not serve as resistance, I would wait on this one. The Airline Index (XAL.X) has remained in its tight descending channel since March, which is still bearish for the sector, but I'd want to watch ALK for weakness below this level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  10:50:47 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,819 -0.5% ... breaking BELOW "inside day" .... very much "mixed signals" from market this morning. Simply trader your "inside day" discipline and stick with plan.

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  10:45:43 AM
Reader Question: Steven, Fortunately I bought 5 puts on this yesterday. What would you say is a good downside target. I always seem to let my losers run too long and take my winners too quick. Marc

Response: Goldman Sachs (GS) $78.70 -1.81 Don't we all. It is human nature to wait for something to come back in your favor when you are down, and to lock in a gain when it is on the table. $77.00 was the previous resistance point to the upside, and could provide support on the way down, however $75.00 looks like the first sign of real support. If you initiated the position around $80 and it reaches $77.00, you may want to take partial profits. The 50-dma of $73.25 and previous support around $71.00 are additional "noise" on the chart that could give support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  10:41:29 AM
The COMPX is now at the lower end of its 1377 - 1400 range from yesterday, and, slightly ahead of schedule, QQQ bounced off the 25 level. The TRINQ at .49 shows that the buyers have not given up, and I expect another run to the top of the range. Note that the 5(3) stoch on the 60 minute bars rolled over midway along its run out of oversold. Not a good sign for the bulls, but the breadth indicator shows that they still want to try for that 1400 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  10:31:43 AM
The QQQ's opening gap has now been filled, as QQQ trades currently 25.16 and the TRINQ makes it up to .43. Everyone who went long QQQ today is underwater. 25 support remains the immediate target to watch.

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  10:30:19 AM
Profiled a few days prior, the Networking Index is in the process of recording its fourth consecutive gain. Currently up 3.85 percent at 132.16, this Index has used the 22 DMA as support (127.55) during trading on Wednesday and looks to test the 50 DMA at 142.60 in the near term. Possible downsides: Top of Bollinger Band is at 132, while 132.90 has proven solid resistance back in late-July. It would take a move back under the 22 DMA to reverse sentiment.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  10:27:04 AM
Love it when a game plan comes together..CSCO hit 15 the last 2 days and bang like a brick wall. Like Shaq ,rejected!! Those Sept. 15.00 c calls I sold on my csco stock in my acct look better all the time...I got .90 yesterday for my 1000 shares..Think I'll just let em sit there..Have a nice cushion so far..900.00 in premium ...looks to me we are going to need some heavy institutional buying to break that mark...What is your take Jonathan???

I can't comment on the actual position, but I will say that bears need to be careful today. While bond yields are coming down off their intraday highs, there's still selling to fuel potential buying in equities. As well, the Fed's $6B addition could fuel a pop. It will expire tomorrow and need to be replenished, but $6B is a lot of securities if that's where the money is headed. Make sure you have a stop on the position, and respect it if hit.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  10:22:54 AM
Good luck at the doc's, Jim. Actually, the Fed added $6B in overnight repos, so for Jeff to stay on top of the SPX, it might take all of our combined employee benefit plans AND interest free loans, and perhaps a mortgage on the departure twinkies and cokes. We'll attempt to coordinate our OIN open market ops in your absence.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  10:19:48 AM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) continues to fade lower intraday at 3.288% YIELD. Looking for some intra-day YIELD support on 60-minute chart at 50-pd MA of 3.27% if "inside day" bull. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  10:17:06 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I have a doctors appointment this morning that could be lengthy. This will be my last post for several hours. I am counting on you to keep the pressure on and don't let us get stopped out of this play. I think we have a decent entry as there was little positive news again today. Banks and brokers downgraded, techs downgraded, retail stocks under pressure. I did my part in organizing this mess now don't let any good news pop up to give the bulls real hope! If we get a rally email Jeff and have him short a 1000 contracts of S&P futures! That should stop it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  10:15:42 AM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) $78.90 -1.98% ... showing some sector weakness. Any "broker stocks" showing inside day break-downs?

Goldman Sachs (GS) $78.90 -1.9% .... breaking BELOW "inside day"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  10:13:13 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 355 +2.28% ... sector gainer today, but still struggling with resistance at 50-day MA. Perhaps has "inside day" bulls in sector in various stocks that are "semiconductor-related" very cautious. 80% of a stocks price movement (up/down) is sector association. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  10:09:49 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I corrected the stop loss on the SPX to 951 from 971 in the earlier post. That would be a little wider than I could stand. Thanks to J.K. for pointing out my error.

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  10:08:46 AM
Potash (POT): $59.96 (-0.07) OI put play POT has broken below $60 and this looks like a good point to initiate short positions. More conservative traders may want to wait for it to break below 50-dma of $59.10.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  10:07:34 AM
QQQ is 10 cents away from closing its opening gap as the COMPX prints lows of the day at 1388. The TRINQ has rocketed all the way up to .32 on this down move (big grin), and the QQV is 20 cents up on the day. With 1400 resistance looming right overhead and bears having unpleasant thoughts about the rare air directly above, this morning's excitement is far from over.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  10:05:27 AM
Treasury Watch I'm wathching 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 3.310% off higher YIELD of the session of 3.349%. As such, migh expect some of the upside "inside days" to fade a bit. No doubt, bulls need some selling in Treasuries to provide cash to continue to lift stocks.

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  10:01:06 AM
The dollar is once again nestled up against a bearish intermediate trend line which started back in February. This is roughly the 10th attempt at a breakthrough. Currently at 107.44, I would like to see a move to 108.25 for confirmation. Helping a possible breakthrough is the Gold Index (XAU.X) lower by 2.17 percent, which normally trades inversely to the dollar.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:57:38 AM
Anglogold (AU) $21.34 -3.4% ... break BELOW "inside day" ... was watching this stock closely yesterday as potential short/put. Looked like a seller at $22.11. Won't chase the gap lower here, but intra-day rally back near $22.11 may be entry point for short/put.

Bema Gold (BGO) $1.06 -3.63% is smaller gold stock we've monitored in the past to get feel for "aggressiveness" in sector. None here and breaking below "inside day". Hints that gold is going out of favor more and more each day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:54:32 AM
Inside day notes Interesting that NASDAQ Comp and NASDAQ-100 Index both broke ABOVE inside days, but NYSE Comp, Dow Indu and S&P 500 didn't.

Note here is that market makers involved in NASDAQ Comp and NASDAQ-100 stocks than NYSE, S&P and Dow Indu where specialists are involved. Be aware that market makers may be backing off some offers and may set up some traps from "inside day."

Be alert, and I would NOT overweight with a bunch of inside day trades (bullish or bearish) in NASDAQ listed stocks. Prefer to trade "true market" stocks that are listed on NYSE as lesser chance for market maker type "tricks."

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  9:54:28 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were triggered on the broad market short at 9:47:20 when the OEX traded below 479. SPX 946.34, DIA 89.45, SPY 95.05, DJX 89.41, NDX 1024.65, Compx 1395.57, Emini 946.00. The initial stop loss will be OEX 485. (SPX 951) Maybe we got this one early enough and high enough that we can stay short and not get jerked out by the next buy program that comes along.

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  9:51:03 AM
Goldman Sachs (GS) : $79.76 -0.75 I like this level as a short entry on GS, as the stock has broken below $80 with the sector downgrade, and a look at today's 1 minute chart shows that $80 may now act as resistance to the upside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:49:35 AM
That's enough inside day alerts but get the feeling there's some strength. Now will monitor the various stocks to get feel for further strength.

I confess I will usually never trade Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $10.43 +2.35% from the bullish side. Over the years, I've gotten a bad taste in my mouth from the stock and company's management (can't give accurate guidance to analysts, therefore, most institutions stay away from the stock). However, can be decent "pulse" stock for chips. Prefer to trade Intel (INTC) $19.23 +1.37%, which is also breaking above "inside day"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  9:49:28 AM
Thanks for all your comments regarding The Corinthian Geyser Formation. Seems I'm not alone out here.

The COMPX has charged up to 1400 resistance, burying the TRINQ at .21 on very heavy buying pressure. We are clearly in a "Bad news is good" market phase. The QQV is fluttering around flat on the day as option traders remain sceptical of the move, but bond yields are all comfortably in the green, and today is clearly different from yesterday. A break above the 1400 COMPX level will be very bullish, and the short covering alone could add jet fuel to the mix. For the meantime, though, the COMPX remains merely at the top of its trading range on a very overbought basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:45:22 AM
NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 1,397 +1.51% ... broader market average breaking above "inside day"

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  9:45:16 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's go SHORT the broader market at a trade below OEX 479. This would be a failure point of the morning rally.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:42:58 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $73.42 +0.94% ... break above two "inside days"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:42:41 AM
The 9:00 AM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:39:41 AM
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $10.53 +3.04% ... break above "inside day"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:37:34 AM
General Electric (GE) $32.77 +1.61% ... strong move above "inside day."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/21/02,  9:36:48 AM
IBM (IBM) $82.27 +1.26% ... strong move above "inside day."

 
 
  John Seckinger   8/21/02,  9:32:53 AM
Bonds lower this morning, with September 30-year down 11/32nd's to 109-23. This could be a result of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero mentioning that the economic recovery would move forward and the decline in stock prices would not hurt household spending. San Francisco Fed President Robert Parry also hit the newswire, saying that the economy remained on track for a modest expansion and there was no need to make policy more stimulative. Side Note: Financial Times claiming Saudi investors has taken out $100 billion to $200 billion out of the US in recent months. The report estimates Saudi investments in the U.S. ranges from $400 to $600 billion, spread between equities, bonds and real estate.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  9:23:46 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Bullishness breaking out all over again. Despite negative news from Radio Shack the markets are ready to open higher. S&P futures are up +6.60 and Nasdaq futures are up +11.00.

Lehman issued some cautious comments about the chip sector after a weak book-to-bill number last night. See my market wrap from last night to get the real story about that number. Link

A positive open gives us a chance to go short at resistance again this morning. Per my game plan comments last night I do not have a specific entry point but the closer to OEX 485 the better. The Dow will have trouble breaking 9000 and that is the controlling factor.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  9:17:56 AM
A side note: We appear to have located The Big Buyer.

Good morning Jonathan....Heyy that was me you are talking about...I always get up in the wee hours of the night, crawl to the computer wearing my Spongebob briefs and throw a few 100 cars to stir things up in the futures market.. Glad you enjoy those geyser formations..It was that great book to bill ratio that got my bull motor started (huge grin).. Take care and have a great day.. Enjoy your commentary as always.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/21/02,  9:16:14 AM
Jeff got caught in traffic this morning and is running late.

 
 
  Steven Price   8/21/02,  9:09:59 AM
Goldman Sachs (GS) $80.50: OI Put Play GS was downgraded overnight by Salomon Smith Barney, along with Merrill Lynch (MER) Lehman Bros (LEH), Bear Stearns (BSC)and Morgan Stanley (MWD) , saying that these stocks have either reached valuation targets or have come close enough that the upside no longer justifies previous ratings

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   8/21/02,  8:31:29 AM
For all of you futures traders, keep an eye on 3AM. It would appear that The Big Buyer sets its alarm clock for a few minutes before 3AM, stumbles to the computer in bathrobe and sleep-encrusted eyes, and then buys enough US Dollars and NDX/S&P futures to paint what I have come to refer to affectionately as The Corinthian Geyser Formation on the charts.

That said, NDX futures are currently +12.50, S&P futures +6.20, and the US Dollar Index up .90 from its midnight lows to the 107.50 level. QQQ is trading at 25.41, and so, for the moment, price is at the high end of yesterday's channel, but not yet beyond it.

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/20/02,  10:55:49 PM
Swing Trade Game Plan - Click here: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/20/02,  10:41:37 PM
Market Monitor has been archived. To view Tuesday's comments, simply click this Link

 
 

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