Option Investor
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  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  9:52:05 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  3:55:07 PM
Aetna (AET) $41.06 -0.5% ... looking at some stock screens from www.stockcharts.com. Noticed "insurance" stock Aetna (AET) Link recently broke triple-bottom at $40. According to Dorsey/Wright and Assoc., "insurance" sector is "bear confirmed". Will price out some put options tonight, but good looking short here. With S&P 500 back in bear confirmed status and Insurance sector also "bear confirmed," this stock looks lower to $35 as current bearish count under construction at $35.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  3:54:07 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The QQQ long position is still open. The Nasdaq drop today is only -4 points as I write this. I will raise the stop loss in tonight's game plan to protect profits in case this drop continues.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  3:53:12 PM
Looking ahead, Thursday's docket of economic events includes Initial Claims (8:30 a.m.), August Export/Import Prices (8:30 a.m.), and Q2 Current Account report (8:30 a.m.). On Friday, economic reports scheduled to be released are August Retail Sales (8:30 a.m.), August PPI (8:30 a.m.), and Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary (9:45 a.m.). Events tomorrow include European Central Bank Meeting, Fed Chair Greenspan to testify to House Budget Comm, SF Fed President Parry (non-voter) on outlook, and President Bush to speak at the UN Conference.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  3:52:33 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
The LONG position was stopped out at 15:47:34 when the OEX traded at 455. SPX 908.82, DIA 85.85, SPY 91.40, DJX 85.72, NDX 946.80, Compx 1316.60, QQQ 23.53, Emini 908.25. The events of today will cause many analysts to rethink their positions, including myself. I am amazed that there was such a strong "sell the news" event when it should have been a strong relief rally with the selling a couple days later. Welcome to the markets where logic and reason are checked at the door.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  3:45:26 PM
The 1:00 PM intraday update has been posted. Link

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  3:38:39 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The S&P futures 912 level just held again. That last downdraft had me thinking it was time to pack up and move to the sidelines but the futures support held. I don't have much hope for the close. The bears appear determined to push us lower.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  3:35:56 PM
This assault on the COMPX day low with the TRINQ still low at .46 is good news for the bears. It's taking relatively little selling to knock down the price. The TICK.NQ is only slightly negative at -16, and volume breadth remains between 3:1 and 2:1 in favor of advancing shares. Unless they bounce it soon, the COMPX will be showing us 1305-10.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  3:08:46 PM
HPQ Jeff: Jeff, What's the stop loss if shot the stock?Thanks.

First sign of further strength on the p/f chart would be a trade at $15.50, which is about $1.00 away. Therefore, I prefer the options in this case and risk of $1.35 as the Oct option allows for time with similar risk as long as trader DOES NOT overleverage in the option. If a trader would normally short $5,000 in the underlying stock, then that would be about 345 shares. As such, perhaps 3-4 option contracts has trader risking about $540.00, which is close to risk in stock with stop at $15.50. Link

Jeff: On the HPQ point and figure chart. Do you see a bearish triangle pattern taking place after today?

No .... a minimum of 5 columns (X's and O's combined) are needed for a bearish triangle.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  3:00:19 PM
HPQ Clarification Jeff: Jeff, I eagerly read and, for the most part, profit from your prognostications. But, Jeff, come on, $11-12 before expiration on the HPQ Oct puts. How? Are you saying we'll see HPQ at $2-3? Love your commentary, but as a tech Bull (at heart) I'm stunned.

The $11-$12 target is for the underlying stock. In essence, I really have no way of "knowing" what the options might trade. If the stock gaps down tomorrow for instance, not really sure what price the option would trade at with so much time left, but using the $11-$12 range as target for the stock, would simply look to take some profits. If I start trying to predict option prices, then I have to try and predict market volatility, etc. Most option traders really don't look at their option, but concentrate on the stock, which is what drives the option's price.

Good question and need to clarify. When I profile an option, my targets are related to the underlying stock itself.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  2:58:10 PM
Note on Intermarket Relationships: As my Traders Corner article stated last night, I am bullish on the Dow, Oil, and Dollar. Moreover, I believe bonds will come under pressure and help equities. Last night I did put the Utilities Index last because it really was giving mixed signals after its hammer formation indicated the possibility of a reversal. That reversal never materialized. I highlighted the weakness in the Utility Index today because I want all readers to know that it does exist and may spread to other indices. I do not think it will; however, I have to respect the price action.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  2:38:47 PM
I'm afraid to jinx it by reporting that nothing happened on the COMPX since our last update, other than breadth deteriorating a bit more. The 1320-1330 range has narrowed to 1325-1328. HUI and XAU have crept up higher, with XAU now +1.29 and HUI +1.20. Bloomberg Radio is attempting to anaesthetize traders with sentimental piano music and sound bytes of testimonials from listeners. The other indicators are still flatlined and virtually unchanged in the past hour.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  2:27:59 PM
The Utility Index has fallen 9 out of the last 10 sessions, currently down 0.33 percent to 262.36. As noted days ago, this Index has led the Dow Jones at every peak since 1960 with only a few exceptions (most notably the 1977 peak). Therefore, this index will continue to be closely watched.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  2:25:05 PM
Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $3.32 -5.12% ... notable new 52-week low

As such, like the Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $14.30 +0.84% October 15 puts (HHYVC) at $1.35. Not stop on the options, target $11-$12 before expiration.

Disclosure .... I currently hold a bearish position in HPQ.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  2:22:48 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The consensus of opinion is that there is no way they (?) will let 911 fail today on the S&P futures. 912 has been the battle ground for the last hour. If 911 fails the consensus is an ugly down turn leading to a retest of the July lows. I would not go that far based on only one days trading on very light volume but I do agree it could get ugly. Watch SP02U for a break under 911 for a signal to head for the exits on any long plays you may have.

  Mark Whistler   9/11/02,  2:18:27 PM
The ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index notched up to -12 this week from the previous -13. The survey has fluctuated from -15 to -11 since August, reflecting the current lackluster economic environment. Attitudes of consumers are more positive now than the beginning of the year, however, the increase may simply be attributed to discount pricing of retail goods.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  2:15:00 PM
Jeez, Jim! ROFL!!! There's probably a line of bullish buyers stepping all over each other trying to enter a bid on the ship. They'll be bidding it up to prices that exceed its valuation before it was found to be radioactive!

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  2:13:38 PM
This day continues to be a surreal experience, but definitely one that offers hope. I smile when I see displays of patriotism, much like everyone else does. Sure, I have been in the WTC a number of times, meeting clients and just soaking up the excitement of the trading floors. I always put those people on a pedestal, and to this day I still do.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  2:05:36 PM
Radioactive Ship Can you imagine the thoughts that went through the Coast Guard officers mind when they pulled out the giger counter and got a positive reading on a questionable ship? Talk about an adrenaline rush! That is one of those Oh Sxxx! moments. You want to catch somebody doing something really bad like sneaking a bomb into the country but you have to be thinking "they will blow it rather than let us find it", "it is probably booby trapped", "it could be timed to go off at any minute", etc....

This would be equivalent to the tunnel rats in Vietnam. Crawling through booby trapped tunnels in pitch darkness with nothing but a handgun and a prayer. Whoever has to open that container when it is found will have a similar pucker factor. Good luck guys whoever you are. Just keep thinking "unshielded X-ray equipment!"

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  2:01:12 PM
Dollar is still fractionally higher, five-year notes continue to be relatively weak, and oil remains in the green. These are all bullish for equities; regardless, the Dow continues to flirt with taking its own course of action. Wednesday, as expected, remains a difficult market environment.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  1:58:45 PM
The 15 minute 5(3) stoch has turned and is running back up, but the COMPX is in its 1320-1330 range for now. The TICK.NQ at 9 and the TRINQ at .34 show an absence of commitment from sellers, and a mere slowing on the part of buyers. Can't say I blame them. Both the HUI and XAU are slighly positive today, which is a divergence from the positive though sinking bond yields. Breadth has improved considerably on the COMPX, with advancing volume now leading declining volume by just under 3:1.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  1:53:07 PM
Reader Question:Per the 1:00 update or 3 do you still think BJS could break out? Thanks

Response: It looks like the recent move in BJS has run out of steam just below $30. The high of $29.76 on Sept 5 has provided resistance at the same level today. Even a break over $30 would have the 50-dma of $31.09 standing over it, and then consolidation at $32. The only trade I see that I like in the stock might be a long 30 straddle, and then scalping the stock between $28 and $32, but with the current level of resistance at $30, even that looks tenuous. For an example of this strategy see Link

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  1:51:52 PM
Ship with radioactive cargo stopped outside Newark harbor According to AP a Liberian container ship was stopped by the coast guard just outside Newark harbor and was searched this morning. Once the radioactivity was detected it was ordered to a security zone 12 miles offshore until it could be searched completely. Obviously searching a container ship will take some time and a hidden bomb could be anywhere in any container. This is what is tanking the markets according to several "internal" emails I have gotten in the last few minutes. If this ship has a bomb then things are going to get really ugly for somebody across the pond. Link Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  1:46:30 PM
The 1:00 PM intraday update has been posted. Link

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  1:41:03 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I want to get under the opening gap point. Let's lower the stop loss to OEX 455. That will allow the Dow to test 8600 without closing our signal. (SPX 909, DJX 85.90)

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  1:32:19 PM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X): 37.10 (+0.14) I would have expected to see the VIX drop after the morning passed with no big event. In relation to past Septembers, it is not overly high, but it looked like some tension was built in leading up to today. Apparently the negative news in the Beige Book has investors weary of a post 9/11 rally, as the VIX has actually increased slightly on this morning's rally.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  1:30:23 PM
Swing Trade Signals
That dip was very healthy! It gave the shorts a get out of trouble exit and traders who were not ready at the gap open a chance to get long. However, if the Dow 8600 level does not hold we are in serious trouble. The battle being waged here is critical to the rest of September. The high on the Dow futures was 8760, well above the Dow's high of 8726. My gut feel is that we are toast.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  1:17:10 PM
Interesting battle going on in the Dow. The index crossed the 50-dma of 8614, but failed at the next retracement bracket (19.1%) of its gain from July 24-August 22. The 50% retracement of this rally provided support on the drop since Aug 22, and 38.2% provided no match, but we are right on the brink of possibly finding a new range. Link A drop back below the 50-dma would look bearish, as the Dow would be unable to consolidate at a higher level.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  1:16:37 PM
The COMPX is zeroing in on gap support, as the TRINQ ascends to a lofty .37 (grin), and the TICK.NQ hits a respectable -720, showing broadbased selling. XAU has gone positive +.37 to 72.37 and bond yields have come well off their best levels of the session. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce off the 1320 level, but it's very tough to call. With plenty of room to run before the 5(3) 30, 60 and daily stochastics reach oversold, more downside is certainly possible, but as Jim has pointed out, we're in much more of a news (or lack thereof) driven market right now, and so we're going to have to see. If anyone shorted the near-touch of 1350, this is a reasonable place to close out and wait to see whether 1320 holds or not. 1305-1310 will be next support after 1320, and so bears can expect some bumpy sledding immediately ahead.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  1:15:35 PM
Well, once under 8660, the selling pressure did pick up steam. Bond futures are cutting losses and volatility is edging back to unchanged readings. Gold is now positive, most likely indicative of the uncertain environment.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  1:02:51 PM
Hotels.com (ROOM): $48.66 (+2.14)This stock has rounded up nicely since finding its 3rd consecutive higher bottom around $40. Prior to 9/11, I was hesitant to get long a travel related stock, however, today's jump broke the 200-dma of $48.13 and if it can hold above the 200-dma I like it as a long. I'm hesitant to pile on at this point as most travel related stocks got a boost today as a result of 9/11 arriving without news of an anniversary attack. However if it holds above the 200-dma, this fact, combined with the third consecutive higher high looks bullish.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  1:00:35 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The bullish scenario is rapidly failing. TICKS are dropping, A/D ratio is dropping, declining volume is increasing quickly. The relief rally is deteriorating and the Nasdaq is leading us down. This is not what anybody expected which makes a good case for a sell the news event. There was a rumor in the last ten minutes about a plane diverted to Arkansas and this caused some traders to miss a heart beat. Three suspicious passengers locked themselves in the bathrooms but the plane landed safely. Police evacuated the rest of the passengers.

It is far too early for jumping to a conclusion and we just need to wait patiently for the volatility to settle out.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  12:55:10 PM
The COMPX reversed course just before 1350 and is back to the opening gap, which should provide temporary support at the very least. If not, expect to see 1320 COMPX as the next support level.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  12:44:14 PM
Pattern Recognition: Trading on 9/11 might make it hard to estabish a psychological pattern; nevertheless, looking at a five-minute pattern of the Dow, 8660 should hold going forward. Moreover, the dollar should stay above 107.46. The Greenback is currently at 107.84.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  12:34:43 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I reported last night about the S&P futures closing at 911. One reader this morning speculated that if somebody had been pumping up the market to that level over the last couple weeks then that meant the market was overvalued today and should sell off.

If somebody (Fed?) was propping up the markets and based on the underlying bid for the last two weeks that is certainly possible, then I doubt they would let them crash today. What message would that send to the world that is looking at us for strength? If this was the result of intervention then I would expect it to continue through Friday. Let the event pass, let the world see the markets rally and then withdraw quietly and let normal market forces return. Just my opinion.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  12:34:30 PM
The Beige Book has been released.

Washington (AP)--The U.S. economy was coping with "slow and uneven" growth in the late summer as manufacturing companies and other businesses experienced a weakening in activity, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in a report that left the door open to further interest rate cuts if needed to bolster the economy.

For the full article, see this Link

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  12:24:58 PM
With the Dow at 8662, 8666 is the 50 percent retracement from yesterday's close and today's intra-day high.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  12:11:15 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are going to call that entry point OEX 459.00 which was after OEX options began trading. Some of you were able to get in earlier using the DIA/SPY but the majority were limited to the CBOE option open. (SPX 913.66, DIA 87.60, SPY 92.97, DJX 86.22, NDX 975.32, Compx 1345.51, QQQ 24.17, Emini 921.25. The initial stop loss will be OEX 457, SPX 911, DJX 86.00

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  12:09:39 PM
The fed has announced that it is taking no open market action today. $6B of 2 day repos expires tomorrow.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  12:07:38 PM
Confirmation continues with bonds lower, dollar higher, oil and utilities showing gains, and gold under pressure. Gold, currently at 71.15, could find support between 70 and 70.75.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  12:07:13 PM
Green across the board with Semiconductor (SOX.X) 309 +3.6%, Fiber Optic (FOP.X) 38.98 +3.4%, Biotech (BTK.X) 351 +2.4% and Combined Telecom (IXTCX) 102 +2.5% leading gains.

Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 71.15 -1.18% and Treasuries only groups with losses.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  12:01:43 PM
NYSE listed stocks are open for trading.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  11:59:12 AM
Advancing shares are leading declining shares on the COMPX by a factor of 10:1. The TICK.NQ is up to 165 now, and that broader buying has provided the push. 1350 COMPX is 5 points away.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  11:53:21 AM
The COMPX has stopped at this 1342 level, as expected. The TRINQ is so low and the TICK.NQ so flat that someone's going to have to blink before this can push higher. It's taking very little selling to keep the price where it is, or at least, that's what the TRINQ is telling me. Other than the 5 minute 5(3) stoch, all other stochastics save for the weekly are glued to the ceiling. The buyers are paying the ask steadily. Either the sellers will run out of inventory first, or the buyers will run out of oomph. In the meantime, we'll watch the indicators, which are flatlined at these levels.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  11:47:26 AM
IBM $76.60 (+1.00) $74 was the magic number for IBM. It made for a nice stop loss (or gain in this case) for our play down from $78. Once it crossed below that level it traded all the way down to $71.50 and now that it has been crossed again to the upside, I like a short term play in the stock backup to around $80-$82. Because I think the long-term tech prospects are still down, I wouldn't necessarily go out past October when looking at options. But we have been able to play this one to the upside and then down again and now the upside play looks promising. $74 was the high end of its seven week rectangle from earlier in the summer and seems to provide a good buy signal on a break above. If the stock crosses $80 again, it would be a short opportunity if it fails and drops back below that mark. I would also use $73.99 as a stop loss for a long play.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  11:40:16 AM
Swing Trade Signals
It is interesting to see the relationship between the Nasdaq and the other exchanges with only the Nasdaq open. The move we saw in the Dow average is solely on the Nasdaq stocks in the Dow, MSFT, INTC and a few stocks that have traded away from the NYSE. T, PG, JPM, GE, C, XOM, WMT, JNJ, IBM. All of those have only fractional gains but IBM with +1.15 gain.

The CBOE is going to open for trading at 12:00. Until then you will not be able to get any fills on options traded there.

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  11:36:32 AM
Swing Trade Signals
It is interesting to see the relationship between the Nasdaq and the other exchanges with only the Nasdaq open. The move we saw in the Dow average is solely on the Nasdaq stocks in the Dow, MSFT, INTC and a few stocks that have traded away from the NYSE. T, PG, JPM, GE, C, XOM, WMT, JNJ, IBM. All of those have only fractional gains but IBM with +1.15 gain.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  11:32:48 AM
Checking the Intermarket Relationships: Five-year note weak while the Greenback remains strong, both supportive of equities. Gold, Oil, and Utilities appear to be closed. The yield curve is getting "less flat", from 16 ticks to 12 ticks. All this means is that fixed-income traders are only slightly concerned about the Dow only up 9 points.

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  11:26:56 AM
The TICK.NQ is reading just 67 despite this monster move north, and the TRINQ is now down at .16. This looks like very concentrated buying. I don't mean to harp on market breadth, but with the COMPX having just gapped up to a resistance level, and with the TRINQ buried at a very low level, I would be cautious about entering long until price on the COMPX clears 1350, or, if eager to jump in right away, I'd do it will a tight stop. The ceremony has just ended on Bloomberg radio, but the day is not over. My prayers are for an uneventful, bullish day. As a trader, I'm still cautious.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  11:26:15 AM
The 11:00 AM intraday update has been posted. Link

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  11:26:14 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Who knows what is going to happen once the New York ceremony is over. I am very surprised that the markets opened after they said repeatedly that it would be 30 min after the completion of the ceremony.

The lack of a negative event should be a positive for the broader markets and once traders get back from the WTC we could see an explosive move. We are venturing into very unfamiliar ground and volume could either be extremely light or extremely heavy. I can't remember the Nasdaq trading when the NYSE was closed so this could get very crazy once the NYSE opens.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  11:24:04 AM
IDEC Pharmaceuticals (IDPH) : $44.81 (+1.48) New OI call play IDPH already trading up, still looks good for long entries, with an initial target of $47.50, however, if the stock crosses above the recent high of $47.67, we would probably add to the position again. A trade of $48 would constitute a triple top PnF breakout.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  11:19:22 AM
Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) 1342.31 +22.22 The COMPX is now over its 50-dma of 1329.62 and we will look for confirmation of the rally from the Dow crossing its 50-dma of 8614.24, which should occur after the NYSE open

  Jim Brown   9/11/02,  11:13:29 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Based on the Nasdaq open and the Dow creep let's go long the broader market now at OEX 457. I realize the option markets are still closed for the OEX, DJX, DIA but the QQQ options are trading. The DIA and SPY securities are trading away from the NYSE. GO LONG whenever you get a chance on whatever vehicle you can use.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  11:12:58 AM
Autozone (AZO) $75.55 Yesterday's rally brought AZO to a new rleative high, getting it above resistance from July 30 and August 22. It also led to a triple top breakout on the PnF. With the possibility of a bull trap, traders might look to initiate 1/2 positions here, with a full position after a re-test of support, or break above $76.00

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  11:12:20 AM
QQQ is currently trading both sides of 24 and the COMPX 1334. The TRINQ at .19 is overbought in the extreme, but it could stay pegged at this level until selling comes in. All 5(3) stochastics from daily to intraday are buried in overbought, and the weekly oscillator is just crossing back up from midway to oversold. The 20 day sma on the QQQ is now 24.05, and has just crossed above the 50 sma at 23.96. These are all buy signals. The extent and duration of this bullish move is up in the air, as these signals could be head fakes. But technical traders trade the technicals and use stops to cover the possibility of a whipsaw. The COMPX is continuing north as I type, and first resistance will be the 1340-50 level that we remember from earlier this summer.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  11:09:18 AM
Microsoft (MSFT): $50.43 (+0.64) OI call play MSFT is now above both the 50-dma and $50 reistance mark. This looks good for long entries with an initial target of $53.50. Yesterday's trade of $49.00 led to a 3-box PnF reversal and was the sixth straight bounce from bullish support. The next bullish support level is $47.00 and can be used as a stop for conservative investors. Our stop of $46.00 coincides more closely with the Sept 5 low.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  11:04:51 AM
The December Bond index is lower by 1 6/32 to 110 1/32. Would this affect the equity market today. If yes, how?

Response: Yes, this should provide for an underpinning bid in stocks. A long-term chart would tell otherwise; however, the Dec. bond is overextended and attracting traders to take profits and move towards more riskier assets, stocks. Could the Dec. Bond rally and stocks still run higher? Yes. Why? A weak five-year note, which, in my opinion, has more of an affect on equities. Remember: There are only two capital markets, Stocks and Bonds. There are many times when it makes perfect sense for a fund to move cash from one to the other, especially when one becomes overweighed (bonds) and one begins to look technically strong (stocks). For articles on the Bond/Stock relationships, please see Link and Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  11:01:26 AM
NASDAQ stocks open for trading. NYSE will continue halt until after memorial conclusion.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  10:56:30 AM
Across the pond, European markets have seen solid advances. Germany up 2.7%, France up 2.1% and the UK up 1.3%. Side Note: If wondering how "flat" the curve is, and how much of an underpinning bid it will have on Treasuries: Five-year down 20.5 and 10's down 27. Using the CBOT method, I mult. 20.5 by 6 to get 123. I then multiply 27 by 4 to get 108. Therefore, it is a (123-108) 15 tick "flattener" and YIELDS between the two contracts are getting closer together. Is 15 significant? No, unfortunately. A move over 32 would give the desired bid for equities. 15 is a solid move, but it could reverse during a trading day.

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  10:39:23 AM
Campbell Soup (CPB) $22.97 ... was a stock I profiled as bullish two-weeks ago for seasonal play from September-November. Wanted to get stock on a pullback to $22 for ideal entry. Currently I have "no change" in prior comments. Rounding 21-day MA serving as support, while falling 50-day MA serves resistance. Still targeting $28-$29 by end of November. Link

Need some cold weather. The Aspen leaves are starting to see some color change with fractionaly yellow showing up, so winter looks to be on its way again this year. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, winter months have presented themselves in the Northern Hemisphere 3000 times in the last 3000 years from October-February. (BIG grin) On my vacation in the high mountains, I actually popped open a can of the stuff for dinner one evening. I like those pop-top cans as my can opener wasn't working all that well. Got a warm fuzzy feeling as the rain and wind came in.

  John Seckinger   9/11/02,  10:13:39 AM
Nasdaq futures currently higher by 21 points, while Treasury Bond prices are significantly lower and the yield curve "flat" (five-years underperforming). Why is this a good thing? Bond futures are significantly overextended (still), allowing for a short-term trading strategy in which prices can move inversely with stocks. For charts, please see article: Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  9:58:59 AM
Alcoa (AA) $23.76 ... Jeff last week AA (OI play) broke support but today moved back above support and resting. $CYC is up. Is this a cautionary signal or just a pause on the way down?

Hmmmm... personally, I don't like shorting/putting stocks that have just achieved their bearish vertical counts. While vertical counts can be exceeded (up or down), caution is advised and I wouldn't be surprised for a bit of a rally back in AA. Link Note: Bearish count would be performed on column of O from 35-30, thus $35-((6*2)*1)=$23 and AA has traded this level once before and rallied back to $27. Use this to assess your risk as it relates to what month options were purchased. If holding September experation, I would look to close with small loss or fractional gain (not sure when profiled as a play).

I like you're correlating with $CYC.X. I have retracement on $CYC.X from 617.49 to 391.09, which has 50% my key level of resistance since the 07/29/02 rally at 505. Then have 38.2% at 477.57 and that's serving as resistance last night. Upward trend from the 09/21/01 low, attached to the 07/23/02 low close has a longer-term upward trend still intact.

As such, could use any break above the 478 level in the CYC.X as an "excuse" to close out an AA put for a September expiration, especially if out the money.

Also... would monitor "like stock" in Alcan (AL) $26.90. Found resistance yesterday and rolling lower 21-day simple MA of $27.45. Could also use a combined break higher of this 21-day MA in AL with CYC.X to help with trade in AA. If memory serves me correct, I did mention AL as a short/put candidate as this stock had a bearish vertical count of $10. While I didn't/don't think AL will necessarily trade $10, it is/was the downside possibility that might keep bulls at bay in stock. Obvious stop from p/f chart is $30. Link

Note the similarity in p/f charts between AL and AA. Both "aluminum" stocks.

Per bar chart... should AL trade down from its 21-day MA, then I would think good entry point on any AA rally would be its 21-day MA at/near $25. See how rallies back "between" AA's 21 and 50-day SMA have been good short/put entry points in the past? Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  9:42:58 AM
S&P futures (sp02u) 920.70 +1.06% .... using similar retracement anchored from the March highs to the recent relative low of 07/23/02, looks to have the 943 level for futures in play on fractional move above the 21-day simple MA this morning. Link

As such, has me looking for a test in the S&P 500 (SPX.X) 909.58, of the 940 retracement level from last night's Index Trader Wrap. Link

  Jeff Bailey   9/11/02,  9:34:33 AM
The 9:00 AM intraday update has been posted. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   9/11/02,  9:33:43 AM
Gold is getting whacked and threatening to take out the 315/oz level. Futures are up strongly, +17.50 on NDX, +10 on S&P. The US Dollar Index is holding steady above 107.50. Congratulations to Shelley who put on some calls yesterday afternoon and not only didn't tank the market by doing so, but actually stands to gain nicely if this bullish move in the futures continues.

  Steven Price   9/11/02,  9:15:58 AM
S&P 500 Futures currently up 10.00

  Jim Brown   9/10/02,  8:45:28 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

  Jim Brown   9/10/02,  8:44:53 PM
The Market Monitor for Tuesday has been archived: Link


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