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  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  8:37:34 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Mike Parnos   9/16/02,  8:12:05 PM
Attention CPTI Students
The Couch Potato Trading Institute will soon have online sessions -- in real time. Since I'm just learning how to use HTML, I want to be a little more comfortable with it before we start scheduling the real-time Q & A sessions.

I will alert OI readers in both my Thursday and Sunday columns as progress is made in scheduling -- and my ability to use some new letters on the computer keyboard.

Until then: Happy trading! The CPTI credo: May our remote batteries and self-discipline last forever, but mierde happens. Be prepared! In trading, as in life, it’s not the cards we’re dealt. It’s how we play them.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  6:39:38 PM
Iraq - Iraq just told the UN that they would accept weapons inspectors without any preconditions. S&P futures are up +11 in after hours.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/16/02,  3:51:12 PM
The 3:15 PM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  3:41:25 PM
The first 20 minutes of trading sent the Utilities (UTY) Index from 258.64 to 253.70; however, the rest of trading incorporated a strong rebound back above the opening range. Currently at 259, this rise in Utilities (accompanied some profit taking in Gold shares) might be able to send the Dow above its intra-day high of 8389. Speaking of the Dow, the blue-chips may not be out of the woods just yet. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  3:39:42 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I updated the chart from my 15:13 post. The 5-DMA was wrong. The current 5-DMA is OEX 446. 48 and that level appears to have held. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  3:17:29 PM
Swing Trade Signals
A couple readers have pointed out the war going on in MSFT stock. It is fighting the high of the day at 47.68. There was a violent spike in the last two minutes and it stopped dead at the level again. Bulls are trying but bears are keeping the lid on it.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  3:13:20 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Just as I captured this chart the trend changed but you can easily see the overhead resistance we have been fighting for the last two days. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  3:01:47 PM
Swing Trade Signals
That 8311 level Jonathan referenced is just above the 50% retracement levels for the Dow at 8304-8309 depending on the width of your lines. This is a critical support level and every dip below has resulted in a quick bounce by the dip buyers. There has been a steady uptrend all afternoon and there is a bullish wedge building on the Dow 5-min with 8360 as the breakout target. It will be really interesting to see which way the 3:PM turn goes. Look for the buy program attempt to influence direction at any minute.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  2:59:51 PM
A profit warning from Singapore's Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Inc. (CHRT) seems to be one reason for a weaker chip market. Shares of CHRT are down 15.55 percent at 6.43, following a warning from the company that they will miss 4Q revenue targets. Earlier this month, the company also performed a rights offering of 633 million in an attempt to raise funds. A rights offering is when common stock is offered to investors who currently hold shares, entitling them to buy subsequent issues at a discount from the offering price.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  2:47:47 PM
The 8350 and 8240 range (plus or minus a few points) has proven to be significant for blue-chip holders. For forecasting purposes, I turn to Intermarket relationships. Dollar higher, bullish. Oil lower, Utilities weaker, Gold higher, 30-year bond higher, all bearish. Yield curve is neutral. Technology certainly is a drag on the market(s), and could be the "tail wagging the dog." Nevertheless, I will stick with my range in the Dow. Note: Opening at 8311 has been a decent pivot area.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  2:40:00 PM
Swing Trade Signals
It is amazing the markets are doing as well as they are with the SOX at a new low. It appears the bad news finally started ganging up those chip stocks and support at 280 finally broke. It the "buy bad news" trend has finally stopped on the chips then the targets of 200 for the SOX could spell disaster for the broader markets. Chips are a major part of the Nasdaq and the broader indexes. Jeff calls it the head of the inchworm but a more common definition is the head of the snake. As chips goes so goes the Nasdaq and so goes the market.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/16/02,  2:37:36 PM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 77.16 +1.7% ... taking over "sector gainer" here. Trade at 77 generates a "buy signal." Looking for near-term resistance at the $80-$82 level, with support building near $72. Link

"Key stock" for monitoring is Newmont Mining (NEM) $29.87 +1.8% Link and needs a trade at $30 to give correlary "buy signal" as seen in XAU.X.

Also monitoring some of the micro-names like Bema Gold (AMEX:BGO) $1.37 (unch) for any bullishness to hint of more "speculative" bullishness building, which might have the more "institutional" names like NEM finding further strength.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  2:30:50 PM
Reader Question: Steven, Are recommending PENN as a LONG or SHORT play. Thanks Ashok

Response: PENN $20.28 My earlier analysis was in regards to going long over $21.00. It is at resistance on the PnF, but above its recent high of $20.02 on Aug 23, with a series of higher lows, so I wouldn't short it here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/16/02,  2:26:36 PM
During options expiration week in September, 2000, the OEX fell nearly 30 points. Last year, it fell double that, but trading was just opening again after 9/11. I like to look at historical trading patterns, too, when watching the behavior of the markets. I wouldn't choose trades based on an expectation that OEX will fall this week because of historical patterns, but I'll catalogue a confirmation or break in this pattern for use when thinking about overall market psychology.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  2:12:32 PM
Reader Question: Steve, Jim said you are the man! What is your opinion on PENN gaming? Thank You Rick

Response: Penn National Gaming (PENN) $20.23 (+0.11) Jim is most definitely a fine evaluator of talent! As far as Penn is concerned, The stock's trade of $20.85 is impressive, however it is just below the high of $20.88 on May 3. The reason I am looking back this far is that the Point and Figure chart would reflect a new buy signal with a trade of $21. It has failed at this level the last 3 times it has reached it, going back to April, so I would look at a trade of $21 as the point at which to consider a long play on PENN. If the rally is for real, it is not very far from where we are now, and you would only be giving up $0.77 in potential favorable movement to wait for a decisive signal.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  2:07:45 PM
Light bid in US Treasuries still lingers. Earlier, Treasuries rose on news that the SEC has asked GE for details about employment and post-retirement agreement with former CEO Jack Welch. Other reasons for higher Treasury prices included Fannie Mae (FNM) buying bonds to hedge prepayment risks. The company mentioned that its gap in duration widened to its greatest month-end reading ever. What does this mean? Duration is measuring the match between cash flows between mortgage assets and debt. If Fannie Mae shows a negative reading (negative 9 in July), mortgages are being prepaid faster than the lender's liabilities. In Chicago, this convexity trade happened frequently.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  2:03:09 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I mentioned I might close the short signal early but the more I watch the Dow fail at 8350 I think we are on the right side of the market. The OEX has three levels of resistance between the current 444.50 level and our stop at 447.50. The 5-dma is also at 446.68 and should also be decent resistance. The futures spikes at 1:30 quickly sold off indicating there is decent overhead supply. They are not back to the previous resistance levels but they are showing weakness again. Unless something changes drastically I have decided to stick it out to the original OEX 447.50 stop loss.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  2:02:21 PM
Reader Question: Steven, LLL - $58.10 made high for the day, do you think to close the play or increase the stop loss limit at what price? Thanks

Response: LLL $58.18 (+1.20) LLL has taken out resistance at $58.00, which I referred to earlier on the MM. The stock has resistance at $59.00 from late June and $60 just before that. I am hesitant to close a play that continues to be profitable for us, so I think raising the stop loss is the most prudent move. We entered the play at $52.84, so there is significant profit here for conservative traders to take. The most logical stop losses,depending on how much an individual is willing to give back, are $56.75, below today's low, or $54.99, just below the $55 support found on Friday. Because there is resistance just $0.82 above, and again $1.82 above, the risk reward from this point must be considered in taking profits. $55 would give back $3 to make $1 or $2, so it may be too low. $56.75 is probably more reasonable, but is still $1.43 versus $2. I will probably choose the latter if the stock is here around the end of the day.

One other consideration is the Sept calls vs. the October calls. If you are long Oct, there is more time for it to bounce off support. If you are long Sept calls, you may want to lean toward profit taking.

 
 
  Mark Whistler   9/16/02,  2:01:48 PM
In today's Business Inventories (MTIS), the report indicates a +0.4% increase in total business inventories, from the prior week. Total business sales increased by 1.2% instigating the inventory-to-sales ratio to decrease to 1.35. Overall the report indicates a slight decline in manufacturing inventories, which is a positive note for the economy. However, the lagging data in the report generally causes the report to be a non-event. The report is just one small piece of the puzzle when considering the overall macro economy.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/16/02,  1:50:53 PM
The 1:00 PM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  1:50:23 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Dow 8350 appears to be a solid top. It has failed three times now since Friday morning. That would be a key indicator for an afternoon bounce. If we can get over that level and hold it would be a leading indicator for a bounce in the morning. It is right at that level and testing now.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  1:48:54 PM
Reader Question: Since orcl is reporting this week, what do you think about a straddle Sep10 on orcl? Do you think that Oct would be better? Thanks Frank

Response: Oracle (ORCL) $9.45 (-0.28) I usually avoid playing long straddles ahead of earnings, since volatility premiums are at their highest. However, the Sept 10 ORCL straddle is offered at $1.00 and can be looked at as a lottery play. It would require a 16% move up (to $11.00), or 5% move down (to $9.00) to break even by Friday. The October straddle is offered at $1.75, and while 0.75 may seem cheap for an extra month, it is not really an earnings play, since you will pay extra for the additional time. The October 10 straddle would require a 13% move down (to 8.25), or 24% move up (to 11.75) by October 18 (expiration) to break even.

Although a straddle on a cheap stock may be priced the same in terms of % to a straddle on a higher priced stock, I have a hard time selling a straddle for $1.00 or less, unless I'm just getting out of a long, so I don't like the short straddle here.

If you want to buy the straddle, keep in mind, the stock has to drop below $9.00 to make $ on the short side, and it has not been below $9.00 since July, having tested this level and found support on several occasions. It did trade as high as $11.20 on August 22, but a move to that level would yield only a 0.20 profit on this play.

Because of the support at $9 and resistance just over $11, I would use only "lottery capital" in case of a big move after earnings.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  1:45:21 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Speaking of one big buyer/seller! About a minute after my last post and just when I thought the markets were rolling over at 13:35 that big futures buy program came through and caused a major spike. Somebody punched the button and now the shorts are feeling squeezed. Hopefully this is the afternoon climax spike before an end of day rollover.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  1:33:51 PM
Swing Trade Signals
There are currently only 11 stocks positive in the Nasdaq-100 while there are 14 positive Dow stocks. The indexes are just treading water. The futures are basically flat and the volume on the NDX futures is almost nonexistent. There is definitely no conviction on either side. Remember the axiom, never short a dull market. Today is definitely dull. All we need is one big buyer/seller and the picture could change drastically.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  1:19:11 PM
Uninspiring. Even though the equity markets appear to be asleep (Japanese and Jewish Holiday today), this price compression is analogous to a coiled spring. What will be the catalyst? I would like to say the dollar, but odds are more in favor of news from a specific company. ORCL is set to report earnings tomorrow after the close, but that may be too far in the future. BBY is before-the-open on Tuesday, but most likely won't carry the same weight as a company like ORCL. Qwest has their analyst meeting tomorrow, but that shouldn't do it either. It could be more selling in Utilities, or a significant move in Oil. Maybe even Gold. On the economic docket, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization is set for release tomorrow morning at 9:15 a.m. That release does have possibilities. Time will tell.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/16/02,  1:15:40 PM
Reader Question: OEX is trading in a very narrow range and the Vix is up sharply. Your comments?

Response: I'm also watching ten-year yields, which are down, advancing/declining volume, which favor declining volume, and XAU, which is beginning to move up, which may be somewhat defensive. Based on these measures and the fact that the stop hasn't been violated, I haven't given up on the possibility of a downturn this afternoon. However, I'm paying attention to the hourly stochastics, which are trying to turn up now, making me cautious. I'll certainly honor my stops this afternoon, with time decay working against this play.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  1:15:29 PM
Jim, Another good move by you, in bringing Linda on board. You have built a super team!
I am a lifetime prof. of finance for the Indiana U. Kelly School of Business. Have taught MBA's 43 years. Women ARE more analytical than men. I have explained the difference to hundreds of classes as follows: Women analyze risk and return, step by step. The male is more like a billy goat, leaping from crag to crag. Both genders average out the same place over time. Neither approach to problem solving is superior! Thanks again for your premier service! Joe H.

Is this a relative Linda? (grin)
Thank you Joe

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  12:48:20 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Based on my earlier post about a possible bounce at the open tomorrow and the improving internals I am considering closing the short position. I don't think the current bounce is due to the presidents speech but something has triggered some buying. In reality it may be just a lack of sellers. The NDX futures have a solid top on the 5 min chart at 913 and the S&P futures at 886 but it is not as well defined. If we break out of these tops I may close the signal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/16/02,  12:43:28 PM
Reader Questions: Welcome to the MM. Do you think, INDU on 5min chart is forming reverse H&S pattern neckline @8300?

Response Thanks for the welcome. I see the reverse H&S pattern you mentioned, but, as I mentioned in the previous post, these short-term formations probably don't mean much. Since your mail, we did see DJI move up out of that formation.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  12:36:45 PM
Linda Piazza - Linda is a new writer on the Market Monitor. She has been corresponding with me and sharing her thoughts on the market for sometime. She has a varied background is a completely self taught trader. I have long said that women tend to be more analytical traders than men. Men tend to be gunslingers where women tend to rely more on confirmation of signals. She is going to share her trades with the readers including how she is watching the trade setup and the rationale for entering each. Her posts should be good for beginning traders to watch. Please welcome Linda to the Market Monitor lineup. Thanks!

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  12:23:42 PM
Dow stuck between 8354 and 8240, making it hard for me to decipher direction. Dollar still stronger, but only marginally at 108.15. Yield curve is neutral, while Oil and Utility Index remains under significant pressure. Note: Utility Index has been a strong leading indicator for blue-chips.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/16/02,  12:17:42 PM
Reader Question, Just wanted to say Good job on the Market Monitor. I'd like to track the Fannie Mae 30yr bond...any idea what the Q-Chart ticker is? I've looked and looked but can't find it anywhere....

Response On behalf of the other writers, thanks for the compliment. Unfortunately, I don't use Q-charts. Perhaps someone else can offer the ticker.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/16/02,  12:04:33 PM
Chart formations are open to interpretation, but on the five-minute charts, OEX formed a pennant Thursday and Friday. Prices broke underneath the ascending lower line about ten this morning. That line was retested and held as resistance about thirty minutes later. Such short-term formations probably don’t mean much, except to temporarily comfort this trader, with a put position on the OEX. The former line of support now crosses at 444-445. We'll see if it holds as resistance if tested again.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  11:54:12 AM
I am holding sept oex atm puts. With the bounce we got at approx. 440 and the time decay this week, I am trying to way the decay vs. potential short term. With out a break of 436, or at least a lower price then 440, it seems good money management to close by the end of day. Your thoughts please?

I agree that it would be a good plan to exit Sept options by the close today. We also need to weigh the possibility of a bounce tomorrow morning when all the traders return to work. There could be a bullish bounce before moving lower. This bounce could eliminate all the remaining time premium from Sept puts. If we do break 436 today then we "could" see a substantial drop on follow through in the morning. The bottom line for me is the close. If we are below 436 I would hold Sept one more day. If we are above 436 then I would probably close and look to reenter with Oct options on the next signal.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/16/02,  11:52:52 AM
The 11:00 AM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  11:35:44 AM
Reader Question: Hi Steven, Broadcom just broke through its 52 week low. I would like to know how far do you think it will go. I am holding $15 Sept puts. Thanks Reinhold

Response: Broadcom (BRCM) $14.61 (-0.64) has been on a triple-bottom sell signal since $16.00. However, it also had PnF support at $15.00, which would require a trade of $14.50 to break through. We got that break this morning with a low of $14.46. Since you are holding Sept puts, you are on a very short time frame, and the PnF is not time sensitive. However, the stock has moved $2.00 since Wednesday and the support break is significant. Because the stock has not seen this level since 1998, it is hard to pick a downside target. I would follow the position with a tight stop at this point, however anything over $15.00 doesn't work since the puts will be worthless, or worth very little during expiration week.

Another option would be to buy some stock here against the position, and then sell it higher to capture some profit if it rebounds. If I were holding 10 puts, I might buy 500 shares (1/2 the amount of shares covered by the option), so that I could still profit on the way down and make something on the way up.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  11:28:54 AM
Get your coffee this morning? Well, if you did, it might not have been Peet's. The company recently had Q4 revenue estimates reduced to 29.6 million from 31.1 million by Thomas Weisel. Shares of PEET are lower by 17 percent at 12.65.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  11:22:56 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX bounced slightly at support of 440. It appears all the markets found a bid at that level with S&P futures spiking at 879. The key will be if they can hold it. The news is mostly negative today with reporters struggling to find something to talk about. This will probably be the routine for the rest of the day. Looks like another paint drying session ahead.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  11:14:46 AM
Retail Index (RLX.X): 299.63 -1.10 The retail index is reflecting the same pattern as several big retailers, which have run into resistance areas. Wal-Mart ($54.14 -0.26) has failed its last three attempts over $55.00 and is looking like a good short candidate on a Dow H&S neckline break with a close under 8250. I would use a stop of $57.01, just over resistance from Sept. 11. The risk/reward on this trade is something to be concerned with, however, as the downside target would be the 50-dma of $51.14 and the ratio of 1:1 is not as advantageous as we usually look for. More conservative traders may want to close this possible trade if the stock closes over $55.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  11:12:52 AM
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX: 270.20, down 10.32) at lowest level since November 1998.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  11:10:00 AM
With the Nasdaq down 1.68 percent and Dow lower by 0.49 percent, sectors underperforming the Nasdaq include Oil, Semi's, Biotech, and Airlines. Sectors in the green include Precious Metals and Gold and Silver (higher by 0.02 percent).

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  10:58:57 AM
L-3 Communications: $57.45 (+0.47) OI call play LLL has sought out new relative highs once again this morning. The stock had trouble getting through $58.00 on several attempts this morning, trading as high as $57.99. The play was entered at $52.84, and conservative investors may want to take 1/2 of significant profits off the table. Our current stop is $54.00, but an alternative stop would be just below $55.00, which was Friday's low of the day.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  10:45:15 AM
Fox news is reporting a shooting in the New York Times Square area. It is reported that the shooting occurred in an office building; 3 people said to have been fatally wounded in what may have been a murder/suicide situation. This shooting does not seem to be viewed as a potentially terrorist-related event.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  10:40:34 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): 273.54 (-6.98) This morning's earning's outlook cuts by Bank of America and Prudential was too much for the sector, which has now dropped through support at 275 and reached a new 52-week low. Prudential lowered earnings growth targets for the sector from 20% to the mid-teens, following suit after IDC did the same recently. Those looking to short the semis should look to this move for confirmation of other support breaks inindividual charts

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  10:17:36 AM
The dollar at 108.23 and 122 Dollar/Yen certainly has bullish implications for stocks. However, lower Oil and Utility stocks do not. Volatility index is higher by 7 percent, and the recent turn around in the Dow should add to the 42.15 figure. I now expect the Dow to find the "bottom of the range", since it seems as though the top has been set. The opening level of 8312 should act as a pivot going forward.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  10:16:15 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Looks like the bottom just fell out of the Nasdaq and where it held us up on Friday it may be taking us down today. The A/D ratio is dropping fast as well as the TICKS. I told you earlier that anybody with a few bucks could move the market today and it appears that either the shorts are pressing their bets or funds are raising cash. The slow growth scenario is finally weighing on the markets as earnings warnings accelerate.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  9:49:26 AM
MGIC Investment Corp (MTG): $49.90 (-5.33) The stock is now open, but I would not recommend new entries at this point. We entered the play at $54.93 and I am lowering the stop loss to $51.00. I will watch today's action for possible new entries, if it continues to roll over, but for right now, those in the play may want to take profits or lower their stops along with us.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  9:44:26 AM
There is speculation that OPEC will increase output later this week. Crude Oil futures are only lower by 0.16 ot 29.65, and there is talk that inventories are low and demand for gasoline is nearing yearly highs. Therefore, some are speculating that the "war premium" may not be as significant as first thought. Note: This war premium is thought to represent roughly 4 dollars per barrel.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  9:43:50 AM
MGIC Corp (MTG) : $55.23 (not yet trading today) OI Put Play MTG announced Friday after the bell that 3rd and 4th quarter earnings would be below expectations. The mortgage insurer said it is suffering from a downturn in the economy and an increase in expenses and bad loans. This would seem to coincide with last week's foreclosure data, showing a record high.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  9:42:45 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Primary support for the OEX is OEX 440 with secondary support at 436. Resistance is OEX 447 followed by the 50% retracement level at 449. Dow 8300 should be the first battle line today along with Nasdaq 1300. I expect the volatility will be extreme today but stay within a range due to the low volume. The low volume means anybody with a few bucks can move the markets. Buy/Sell programs can cause large swings and should be easily recognizable.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/16/02,  9:34:44 AM
Aetna (AET) $39.25 .... a wild ride on Friday after the stock fell sharply to $36.55 only to rebound back with a marginal gain by session's close.

On Friday, at about 12:00 EST, Briefing.com reported that it was hearing that AET might have been selling off due to comments it gave a few days ago during a conference call that new business is not going well as expected; in addition, there was another "rumor" making the rounds that the company will lower their guidance at the Bear Stearns conference on September 19th; with Briefing saying it had no confirmation for either rumor.

Then just after that report, James Cramer said at his website The Street.com that Briefing was spreading false information and he was "big buyer" in AET all day on weakness.

Last week, I profiled shares of AET as bearish, simply due to the stock recently breaking a triple-bottom at $40 and violating upward trend. According to Dorsey/Wright & Associates, the "insurance group" is "bear confirmed." Link

Looks like Cramer is fighting some supply and I still like short/put here in the October $40's.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  9:34:33 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Just a reminder that the current stop loss on the open SHORT signal is OEX 447.50 (SPX 896, DJX 84.75)

When multiple stops are listed like shown above the number we will key from is the OEX number. The SPX/DJX numbers are estimates based on the corresponding OEX number. It is possible for the SPX/DJX numbers to be touched before the OEX or to not be touched while the OEX is stopped out.

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  9:29:43 AM
S&P Futures lower, Dow futures higher. This bifurcation is taken positively by the yield curve, as five-year notes are up only 3.5 ticks while 10's are higher by 8 ticks. This relative underperformance by five-year notes usually has bullish implications for equities.

 
 
  Steven Price   9/16/02,  9:29:42 AM
Looks like we'll get another chance to test the head and shoulders which appeared to form across the Dow, Nasdaq Composite, NDX and S&P 500. While the neckline can drawn from a couple of different points, a close below 8250 would look like a certain neckline breakdown

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/16/02,  9:27:07 AM
The 9:00 AM intraday update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   9/16/02,  9:25:49 AM
HL Camp & Company reported that overall program trading averaged 39.9 Percent of the NYSE Volume between September 2 to September 6. Buy programs were 46.56% of the total program trading volume. Sell programs were 53.44%.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  9:09:14 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Looks like traders don't know which way is up today. Business Inventories came in slightly higher than expected at +0.4 vs +0.2%. Dow component JPM is under pressure again due to Enron concerns. The Nasdaq is under pressure with more negative chip news as well as a warning from GENZ.

The volume today is expected to be very light as many traders stay home to celebrate Yom Kippur. The futures are showing minor weakness but the markets could go either way.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/16/02,  8:53:44 AM
The Monitor for Friday has been archived: Link

 
 

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