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  Kent Barton   11/25/02,  5:10:15 PM
Tech Data (TECD): Trading near $31.00 in the extended session after closing at $33.27. The company announced earnings this afternoon that were in-line with expectations, but investors aren't taking kindly to the lowered guidance for the fourth-quarter. TECD now sees Q4 EPS in the $0.53-$0.58 range, whereas the consensus estimate was for $0.64. Of course given Wall Street's recent tendancy to ignore bad news it wouldn't be surprising to see shares finish with a gain on Tuesday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  4:57:18 PM
Dell (DELL) ... per Jonathan's 15:52:33 .... probably... Michael might be a trader of stock too. He stepped up and accumulated a smaller position, roughly $72 million worth (4.3 million shares) between 09/20/01-09/27/01 just after the terrorist attacks.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  3:52:33 PM
Diversification?

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Dell Computer Corp. (DELL) Chairman and Chief Executive Michael Dell sold 10 million shares of the company's common stock Thursday, according to a Form 4 filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  3:50:49 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I like the series of higher highs and higher lows throughout the afternoon in the OEX, and I am going to hold the position long overnight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  3:50:42 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  3:45:14 PM
Oracle - Anybody noticed ORCL lately? This stock is on a stealth rally and has broken the previous resistance at 11.25. This is not my favorite stock but the relative strength is pretty strong. Next resistance is 12.00 but not as strong as the 11.25 was.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  3:34:32 PM
There can be two trend lines drawn from the relative high of 8800 set on November 6th. One is with the high on November 21st, which comes in at 8875; the other bisects the high on the 22nd, and this upward trend line bisects the chart currently at 8900. On another note, the RSI reading on November 6th was 64.87. The current reading is 63.49. It would be encouraging for bulls if we could get a close above 8900 and an uptick in the RSI. If not, it doesn't mean that I am bearish; just cautiously bullish. A close above 8800 still should allow least resistance to be higher.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  3:32:28 PM
Swing Trade Signals
It looks like the 478.00 level will be the next hurdle for the OEX. Recent high of 477.98 in the last few minutes is a pretty good indication. I'm going to leave the stop loss at 471.00 for the moment, but an alternative for more conservative traders is 474.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  3:31:32 PM
The current rebound is looking good. If we can clear that pesky 479 level on the OEX we could have a chance to test some new highs. All the internals look good and the VIX is back down to 27 which indicates rising bullishness. The Russell is going along with the big caps and that means it is a widespread move with good sentiment. Keep those fingers crossed!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  3:22:43 PM
That head and shoulders is now soaking its head in a cup and handle.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  3:07:31 PM
When you have a moment, would you tell me what you think of PMCS, technically. I have been trading it daily and would love your view. Thanks Amigo :)

The stock is looking bullish to its 200 dma at 10.83. All of the oscillators are crossed up and in bull runs. There's some intermediate resistance just ahead of the 200 dma, around 10, but the oscillators and volume flows look very good at the moment. You could put a stop underneath around 7.60ish to be safe.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  2:53:12 PM
good pick on gnss. what do you think the next level after the 21 break out. should still hold or take some profit. thanks.

Genesis (GNSS): $21.32 (+2.34) Each time I think this call play is due for a pullback, it finds intraday support at the next 0.50 increment. We listed it at $17.17 for a 24% gain in a week, so if traders want to cash in some gains here, I certainly have no problem with that. However, until I see some evidence of a breakdown, or at least a slowdown, I'll keep the play open. I am going to tighten the stop to $19.00 to lock in some gains. PnF vertical count is $26.50, but I'd expect some 3-box reversal before achieving that target.

 
 
  Kent Barton   11/25/02,  2:52:49 PM
Novellus Systems (NVLS), $35.99 +1.61: A 14.5% gain in AMD has helped to push the semiconductor index to new relative highs. The next challenge for the SOX.X will be historical resistance at 400, which is backed by the 200-dma at 410. Traders looking to capture a move to this level might want to take a look at NVLS. Shares of the chip equipment company have broken above bearish resistance on the p-nf chart and are showing good relative strength versus the SOX.X today. A break above $37.05 would open the door for a rally to the $40.00 area.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  2:42:36 PM
This day might turn out to look mostly range bound; however, if the Dow closes at these levels or higher, I would call it a slight victory for bulls. A close above 8800, as well as an intra-day rejection of levels under 8800. On the negative side, the Nasdaq hit its 200 DMA (exp) and is currently underneath at 1461. Unfortunately, no confirmation from the bond market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/02,  2:26:09 PM
ZMH update. At 37.20 as of this writing, ZMH has twice bounced off its 200-dma (simple) in the last two trading days. (See link below.) On Friday, I'd suggested that those of you interested in a put play might wait for a rollover near the 50-dma at 39.80 or else an entry on a fall through the 200-dma. After that suggestion, ZMH climbed above 39 Friday afternoon and then began rolling down again. Those of you who might have entered at that level might consider taking some profits on a move above 37.50 this afternoon and stepping aside. You could then re-enter on a rollover below that 50-dma and former ascending trendline or on a fall through the 200-dma. Alternately, you could move into the weaker (on PerfCharts with Stockcharts.com) OIN put play HSIC at the appropriate triggers. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  2:13:45 PM
and looky there, another intraday head and shoulders..... hunchback or classic? (sounds like a burger king choice at the drive-up window)

Indeed, JB, it looks like a hunchback, the weaker variety, on the 15 minute chart. A rollover on the COMPX at this level should complete the right shoulder. In the meantime, the 5(3) stochastic on the 15 minute candles is overbought. The TRINQ is lower again at .46, while the put to call ratio is at .65, the upper end of the day's range but below Friday's close of .69. Yields have gone flat from negative, and the QQV is still up, over 40 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/02,  2:01:11 PM
Adv/Dec volume patterns aren't giving a lot of clues as to market direction. As of this writing, the numbers were slightly negative for NYSE, at .95, and slightly positive for the Nasdaq at 1.07. Up/down patterns showed some divergence, however, with Nasdaq up volume about 2.21 times down volume. This shows some concentrated buying in some issues. NYSE up volume was about equal to down volume, at 461/471. New highs were above new lows on both the NYSE and Nasdaq stocks.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  1:56:28 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were triggered on the broad market LONG entry with the OEX trade of 475.25 at 13:53:06. The initial stop loss will be 471.00.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  1:50:50 PM
Do you like FRX here? It has broken out, but I'm not sure of the upside potential. Thanks, Carole

Forest Labs (FRX): $108.50 (+3.83) For those OI readers still holding positions on this OI call play, closed for a gain last week after entering at $98.75, the stock continues to set new intraday highs, after this morning's upgrade. I'd probably wait for some sign of a pullback to support to add to the long at this point. I like new entry best on continued support over $106, or a break over $110, since there is bound to be some resistance at that level. I'd also raise the stop to $105.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  1:49:11 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  1:38:58 PM
It is reported that General Electric Capital Corp. plans to sell up to $20 billion of bonds directly to individuals. These "InterNotes" will be used to to finance its operations. GE Capital, which had $262 billion of debt as of Sept. 30, is the eighth company to sell these kind of corporate bonds (read: not government bonds). Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Co., who runs the $64.5 billion Pimco Total Return (PTTRX), faulted GE Capital for selling too much debt maturing within nine months.

 
 
  Kent Barton   11/25/02,  1:33:31 PM
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA), $76.76 +0.38: Lately TEVA has been one of the stronger performers in the drug sector. The stock gained roughly 20% from the October 16th lows and is now trading just below resistance at $79.00. This morning the company announced a 2-for-1 stock split, to be distributed on or about January 15, 2003. The shareholder record date is December 10, 2002.

A move above $79.00 would put TEVA at new all-time highs and also create a double-top buy signal on the p-n-f chart. This might yield an action point for bulls looking to play a possible split run.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  1:33:15 PM
Henry Schein (HSIC): $40.92 (-2.68) OI put play HSIC has found round number resistance on each rebound attempt today. $41 is the current struggle point. The most recent intraday bounce was from $40.50 and I would look for a breakdown under that level for new entries.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  1:24:17 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I like the bounce off previous resistance at 471. Go LONG the broader market with an OEX trade over 475.25. The intraday support on the way down was 475, and a decisive move back over that level should be the start of a new leg up. Place a stop at 471.00.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  12:55:51 PM
Per 10:44:09 Post, I gave 110'24 as the upward trend line in the 30-year. Because this line is slowly moving higher as time passes, use the 110'24 to 110'28 level instead as the signal that could become the catalyst for buying in bonds and traders taking profits in stocks. I do consider this a signficant level to watch. Other patterns: The Dow continues to form short-term long liquidation patterns, but a move above 8783 might be reason enough to have shorts cover on a short term basis.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  12:46:37 PM
The COMPX is currently resting on the support zone at 1460. The TRINQ has "rallied" all the way up to neutral bullish territory at .76, with the TICK.NQ -210, QQV +1.87 to 40.41. There's buying in bonds across the curve, with the FVX down 3.4 bps. The put to call ratio is hovering just above .60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  12:45:43 PM
ICN Pharmaceuticals (ICN) $11.70 +1.91% .... rather quiet trading here after the company announces that it has settled a civil lawsuit file in 1999 by the SEC regarding alleged violations of securities laws nearly 8 years ago. As part of the settlement, ICN is required to pay $1 million in civil penalties, which the company says has already been reserved. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  12:21:11 PM
Genesis (GNSS): $20.73 +1.75 I like the mid $20 bounce after crossing that barrier and new entries here look decent. One note however, is the high of $20.99, indicating $21 as the next resistance level. The new buy signal came at $19. Current PnF vertical count is $26.50.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  12:19:02 PM
The Dow came close to the 8750 support area (intra-day low of 8760), and now it appears as though traders want to see if 8800 has just turned into a solid resistance level. Note: The 8825 area did provide resistance recently, as it was 50% of the day's range. That figure now comes in at 8813, and we will see if that level has garnished attention from market makers. Of course, if 8760 is taken out, adjust the 50% level downward accordingly.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  12:16:09 PM
One thing traders need to be acutely aware of this week is time decay. With the markets closed Thursday and a half day Friday, we are essentially looking at 4-5 days of time decay. Wednesday afternoon should see most trading floors empty out early and a slowdown in trading, as well. We need to be very selective about which options we purchase, and will see the most decay in December options. Traders may want to close some profitable positions on Wednesday, rather than watch the erosion between then and Monday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  12:10:07 PM
Such as "Dow 35,000"? Go Ralph!

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  12:07:56 PM
Ralph was on Rukeyser two weeks ago saying he saw Dow 10,000 in the next 12-18 months. I had made some notes about the interview with the intention of using them in an article but decided it was not a significant enough market call to be relative. If the Dow cannot move +1500 points in the next 12-18 months we are in deep trouble since that would put us well into the anticipated recovery. Ralph was harassed on the show for his prior calls but only in the context of "you have been more cautious lately" and "keeping a rather low profile". He agreed and said he had made some calls that had not been popular but did not elaborate.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/02,  12:06:35 PM
VIX: 27.84, up 1.11 as of this writing. RSI, (5)(3) and (21)(3) daily stochastics, and (5)(3) weekly stochastics are all trying to hinge up on the VIX's rise today, showing a moderate rise in fear levels in the markets. MACD still looks bearish for the VIX, though, on both daily and weekly charts. Nearest resistance on the VIX is 28.60, and then there's the important 30 level, of course.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  12:01:14 PM
I'm hearing trader talk that both Abby Joseph Cohen and Ralph Acampora have been out recently making bullish calls, and I recently saw a Time magazine article online (no longer have the link, though) suggesting that now's the time to take out home equity loans to invest in stocks. Accordingly, I urge bulls to be cautious and watch your stops. Abby J. and Ralph "Makempoorer" are great contrarian indicators.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  11:53:15 AM
Elliott Wave Theory .... have had some good comments/observations/thoughts from subscrubers regarding Elliott Wave Theory that hints to much lower equity markets in coming months. Some making the tie between the now higher Bullish % Charts, with some like the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link now "overbought" above 70%, and others like the also narrow S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link also reaching the "overbought" 70% level.

My thoughts between Elliott Wave (which I admit I'm not a strong follower of, but do understand its theory of cycle) could combine the "thoughts" of Elliott Wave and what eventually takes place in the bullish % charts (further strengthening or some type of weakening reversals).

One, make that two potential threats to Elliot Wave right now is that we're seeing some potentiall bullish signs for prolonged rally in stocks come from the bond market as discussed last week in the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X). Another is perhaps the still relatively low bullish % reading in the NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link from www.stockcharts.com.

One note here.... the NYSE Bullish % from www.stockcharts.com "looks different" than that of Dorsey/Wright and Associates (BPNYSE) as stockchart's shows relative high readings at current levels. I think the reason for this is that stockcharts.com will adjust LOWER individual p/f charts of stocks when they pay their dividends, which can have some charts generating sell signals or negating buy signals where none existed. Dorsey/Wright, which leaves past price action in place and does not falsely adjuct stock price for dividend, shows NYSE Bullish % breaking the relative high bullish % readings and currently as upside potential to the 70% level.

As such, Elliot Wave Theorist would like to see the market INTERNALS "confirm" theory and have the Bullish % charts showing weakness going forward. Two different tools (Elliot Wave Theory AND Bullish %) can be combined for some type of confirmation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  11:51:50 AM
Just bought mlnm 10.46 saw jim say it was about to breakout what might be a traget here. Your advice sure has been working. Thanks David

I see first resistance at 11, following which I would look to take profits at the 200 dma, at 14.31. All of my indicators on this stock look bullish, with the MacD and stochastics in bull runs, and volume increasing to the upside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  11:33:47 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  11:32:04 AM
Looks like resistance held across the board. The A/D line has dropped from +1650 net advancers to only +368 advancers since 11:00. The declining volume is accelerating. The key level in my view is Dow 8800. As long as 8800 holds we will stay within striking distance of that first level of Dow resistance at 9050. John is right - 8750 is the next critical technical support level and 8800 is more of a sentiment level. We had a great run last week and profit taking here is only natural.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  11:27:18 AM
Are the indices range bound? Market internals are definitely weakening, and it will be interesting to see what happens if the Dow tests 8750 (currently at 8809 and above the intra day low of 8786). On the upside, 8900 may take some work to get through. 8825 is the mid-point in today's range, and sometimes this level acts pivotal. With that said, I look elsewhere for guidance. Bond market is showing a muted reaction, but Sox higher by 2.16%. Dollar is still strong, and gold remains weak. In conclusion, I would not be surprised to see traders buy dips.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  11:22:26 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - QQQ
CANCEL the current open signal for a long entry point of $28.25 in the QQQ. After the failure of the QQQ at the 200-dma and other broad market indices, I am canceling the entry point in the QQQ for the time being. I will wait to see how it behaves on the next trip over the 200-dma and reconsider at that time.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  11:12:05 AM
Sure enough, the indices pulled back a bit from their highs, and the latest put to call reading came in at .55. Nevertheless, it remains at the low end of its range. If it were above 1, I'd be predicting a runup to the 200 dma on the COMPX, but at these low levels, I don't expect to see that today. The TRINQ is also low, .42, and yields are negative, showing buying in bonds. None of these lead me to think near term bullish thoughts. On the other hand, before putting on huge put positions, traders should recall the awesome blowoff top in March of 2000. An extended move can always grow more extended, surprising all participants. I was trading and thinking bullish all the way up in 1999 and 2000, and in March moved into OEX puts. I was shocked and dismayed at how the COMPX just kept printing new closing records day after day for weeks. It did finally blow off, but not until it had become very very extended. The OEX puts were profitable, but not nearly by as much as I initially expected.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  11:08:46 AM
Party over? Looks like the failure to break out on the SPX/OEX was the signal to take profits for somebody. The futures took a substantial hit and it looks like a sell program hit the market. The Emini dropped from 937 to 931 very quickly. It was broad based with the RUT and QQQ following the futures down as well.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  10:54:36 AM
Are you going to give swing trade suggestions on stocks also, or just index? Thanks Frank

The Swing Trade model will just be for the indices. Stocks will be handled as in the past.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  10:52:44 AM
The CBOE put to call ratio opened at .55 and has just printed .45. Without reviewing my charts, this is a very very low reading- it's been many months since we've seen this level of bullishness. We've seen this sentiment indicator fluctuate intraday, but a reading like .45 boes very ill for sustained upside in equities, on the premise that the majority of participants in the markets tend to be wrong at any given time.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  10:47:27 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - QQQ
Go Long the QQQ with a trade at $28.25, wth a stop loss of $27.00

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  10:44:09 AM
With the 30-year up fractionally at 110'01 (most likely due to short covering and bids due to strong dollar - foreign buying), the contract will have to rise over 110'24 before there is talk of traders buying bonds and selling stocks. With that said, there should still be some funds out there looking to sell rallies in the bond market and putting cash towards equities. The Downside objective in the 30-year is near 103. I would look for support between 108'16 and 109.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  10:42:12 AM
The broader market highs from Friday afternoon appear to be holding and the OEX top at 478.50 would be an early indication of a breakout. It is the only broad market index of the three ($indu, SPX, OEX) which has come within a few cents of the Friday high. I would be looking at that level on the OEX as a leading indicator if a breakout is going to occur.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  10:31:19 AM
We are getting a pronounced downward shift in the 60 min MACD/STOCH in the broader indexes as the NDX battles with the 1126 resistance. As unreliable as oscillators have been lately I would not attach too much importance to them as sentiment continues to rule but if sentiment fails the oscillators would indicate a negative underpinning this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/02,  10:22:57 AM
ZMH update: Friday, I watched medical supply company Zimmer Holdings. It fell precipitously, but then bounced off its (simple) 200-mda. The fall supposedly occurred due to a rumor, which ZMH later denied, that the company was acquiring a company and that the acquisition would be dilutive to earnings. The OptionInvestor team placed fellow medical supply company HSIC on the put list in this weekend's newsletter. At 36.18 this morning, down 2.74, ZMH looks to test its 200-dma at 35.95, having already fallen through its exponential 200-dma at 36.41. I'm not part of the pick team for the put and call plays, but those of you who are following the HSIC play might use ZMH's weakness to confirm weakness in the HSIC put play.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  10:22:50 AM
From Bloomberg.com: "Sales of previously owned, single-family homes increased 6.1 percent to a 5.77 million-unit pace, the National Association of Realtors said. That was up from a revised 5.44 million pace in September and compares with a record 5.3 million homes sold last year."

Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  10:14:08 AM
Futures are showing some red candles on the 2 min chart and the volume - A/D internals are slipping as well. The QQQ also fell back below 28.00.

The NDX has solid resistance at 1126, which is the 200 DMA. I mentioned in the wrap this weekend that this could be the first real resistance to cloud our future and it appears to have come to pass. The Nasdaq compx 200 DMA is just over 1500 and the convergence of the two resistance levels on the NDX/Compx could be a challenge.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  10:13:10 AM
As the Dow tests the 8850 area, there are a few indices that could help stocks power ahead. One is a stonger dollar, and the other, not surprisingly (since normally trades inversely with the Dollar), is a weaker XAU index. The Greenback is higher by 0.45 points at 106.56, and isn't too far underneath its intermediate pivot area of 107.25. The Gold and Silver Index, on the other hand, continues to trade technically weak, down by 1.5% at 63.71 and looks poised to test a strong upward trend line that is currently at 61.45.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  10:11:43 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm watching the QQQ get close to our planned entry point of $28.15. However, with the struggle at the 200-dma of $28.04, I'm going to raise the entry signal to $28.25 for a more decisive breakthrough. I'm also going to give it a minute after reaching that target to see if it holds.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  10:03:15 AM
HMO Index (HMO.X) 478.98 -5% Link ... leading sector loser this morning after SG Cowen reduced their managed care investment rating to "market perform" from "strong buy" based on the results of their 2003 pricing survey, which indicates that 2003 will be more challenging than previously thought with less upside opportunity to the bottom line. SG Cowen downgrades WLP Link , HUM Link , HNT Link and UNH Link

Cowen also downgrading AET Link and CI Link to "underperform" from "market perform"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  10:02:49 AM
The fed has added a 4 day repo in the amount of $4B, which supplements the $5.5B added Friday. With no expiries today, that amounts to a lot of liquidity available for equities, bonds, or other assets.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  10:00:41 AM
The COMPX has just set a rally high with this print above 1480. As noted last Friday, 1480-1500 is the beginning of a very significant resistance zone, one which has reasserted itself more than 10 times over the past 6 years. A bear would look at this rally and note that this is the first test of this s/r zone from the downside, and would expect the rally to fail in this area. The 200 dma on the COMPX is 1502. A break above that should have such a bear limping back to his cave to do some hibernating.

While coordinated rate cuts would explain upside in the USD and US assets, the drop in the price of gold and the metals indices is puzzling. Currently, HUI is down 1.56 to 114.91, XAU is down .90 to 63.77. Gold dropped the 320 level like a bad habit and is currently below 318.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  10:00:37 AM
Genesis (GNSS): $19.50 (+0.52) OI call play GNSS topped out just under $20 again today, after reaching a similar level on Friday. New entries can wait for the $20 barrier to break before entering around this level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/02,  9:58:48 AM
It looks as if the NDX may try to test its 200-dma at 1129.05 (exponential, according to stockcharts.com). The corresponding level for the Q's is 28.10.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  9:58:06 AM
One of the holdbacks for the Dow last week was MMM. It just can't seem to get over that 130-131 resistance level and is trading at 129.86 this morning as well at +13 cents. IBM may be breaking out to levels not seen since May but MMM is still trapped. Until MMM can move past that resistance and become a leader again the Dow is not likely to have any really big moves. MCD, JNJ, HPQ, WMT, PG are also holding the Dow back this morning by trading in negative territory.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  9:52:29 AM
The A/D ratio is rapidly improving and advancing volume is also increasing quickly. It appears the morning dip will be short lived with the Nasdaq moving back into new high territory at 1480.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  9:50:01 AM
MLNM Broke though resistance this morning that has held since early September. I profiled this stock in the editors plays a couple weeks ago and it never hit the trigger point on the breakout. It was in rally mode with the markets last week but this morning was the breakout.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  9:44:52 AM
ICOS: $31.45 (+0.79) After finding resistance at $31.25 on Friday, I like the move decisively through $31.00 this morning in OI call play ICOS. I'd look for a successful re-test from the top side above $31.00 for entry.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  9:44:06 AM
There is word in the bond pits that, due to light corporate supply this week, bonds could be due for a nice short covering rally. Moreover, with a lot of hedge funds short, a lack of bid in equities could have a few funds squaring positions heading into the Holidays. Note: Bloomberg is reporting that French truckers have begun to strike, setting up roadblocks to protest that their 14% wage increase over the next 3 years is not enough.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/02,  9:41:47 AM
Not a bad opening considering the negative news and the amount of profit built into the indexes from last week. The 8800 level held on Friday and appears like it will be the battle ground this morning. With multiple tech downgrades to tech stocks the bulls have plenty of rocks in their wall of worry to climb. I would expect some profit taking this morning before any major move begins. This week has been positive for the last nine years and there is no reason it should not be bullish again this year.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/25/02,  9:40:40 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Because we are in a holiday week, we could see some real drifting around. I'm going to be patient with the signals until I get wide confirmation, rather than drift back and forth throughout the day. This may lead to fewer entries, or no entries, but I see no reason to push for one if it's not there. Holiday trading can be a little frustrating, but experience has told me that traders often force things when they get bored, and I won't do that this week.

 
 
  John Seckinger   11/25/02,  9:37:11 AM
Looks like we are getting the 8800 test in the Dow out of the way early. Other highly-watched support areas include the Nasdaq 100 at 1100. The NDX is currently at 1122. The slight morning downdraft is pretty muted within bonds, as the 30-year is only down 1 tick at 109'29; however, the yield curve is fairly steep (read: bearish for stocks) and will have to be watched closely today. Looking elsewhere, the Sox index is marginally higher, while the Utilities index is above 243 at 247.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  9:36:38 AM
Tyco Intl. (TYC) $16.75 -0.88% ... In today's Wall Street Journal the paper reports that the SEC has asked TYC to investigate whether it and its previous outside law firm withheld relevant information that would have helped the agency in its 1999-2000 inquiry into TYC's accounting practices, has the SEC received the information it sought, or pressed harder for, the agency might have continued their accounting inquiry. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/02,  9:34:36 AM
As U.S. markets approach the opening, European markets are down slightly, all near their lows of the day, perhaps on the German economic news Jonathan mentioned earlier. The FTSE 100 is down 1.02%, CAC 40 is down .63%, and DAX is down .40%. The Nikkei closed strongly, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  9:33:29 AM
2 point gap up open on the COMPX to 1470. Let's call it flat. TRINQ .39, TICK.NQ 0, QQV +1.83 to 40.37.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  9:31:16 AM
Bond yields have been sliding since 8:30AM, as have the futures. QQQ is currently trading at 27.76. It should be an interesting open.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/02,  9:30:26 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/02,  9:06:19 AM
In news you might have missed over the weekend, West Coast shipping companies and dockworkers may have reached a tentative agreement on a six-year contract. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union members will vote on the agreement, with the vote likely to occur November 28. To be ratified, a majority of the union members must vote in favor of accepting it. President Bush praised the efforts of both sides in reaching this accord.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/02,  8:34:07 AM
The US Dollar Index got a boost of NOS over the weekend, and particularly this morning, as bad economic numbers from Germany revived talk of the ECB cutting rates. This has put a bid under US assets as the value of savings in Germany going forward would shrink on a rate cut. The USD Index is above 106.60 at the moment. NDX futures +7.50, SPX +3.20. Interestingly, gold has dropped, which is counterintuitive. QQQ is trading 27.94, .22 up from its Friday close.

 
 
  Steven Price   11/24/02,  1:16:20 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/24/02,  1:15:49 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

 
 

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