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  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  2:23:58 PM
MSFT - Massachusetts elected to appeal the federal judge's decision to accept the Microsoft settlement. The dissenting states have a Monday deadline to file an appeal. Other states still expected to make announcements are California, Iowa And Connecticut. This deadline has kept a lid on MSFT for the last three weeks.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  2:12:49 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

  Kent Barton   11/29/02,  1:15:29 PM
Parking Lot Indicator (PLI) $54.28, +2.51: Okay, I made that quote up. ;) But our offices here in suburban Denver are adjacent to a mall that has all the major anchor stores, including Dillards, Foley's, and Sears. As a matter of fact, our parking lot would be used as overflow parking if things got especially crowded. It may be a little early to get a good reading on the PLI but thus far it looks pretty packed. Maybe I'll go buy some retail HOLDRS if they start spilling over into our lot. (grin)

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  12:51:20 PM
What do you think of the XAU Index?

Response: The XAU index is higher by 0.86 points at 63.73, and has an intra-day low of 62.35. There remains a solid upward bullish trend line, beginning at 54.67 (low on July 26th) and bisecting the low on October 10th and October 17th (58.73 and 59.04, respectively). This line came in today at 61.40 and the low on Wednesday (61.64) certainly scared some longs heading into today. With this trend line holding, it is encouraging for longs that the XAU will close above the 62.75 to 62.90 range (prior resistance). Going forward, solid resistance is seen at 65, and a move back under 62.75 should have traders looking at this aforementioned trend line once again. It would be nice if a close above 65 is accompanied by a weak dollar and solid volume. If the XAU breaks this trend line, the objective is much lower at 40.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  12:49:55 PM
Looks like the sell off came to a dead stop at 8900 again and some end of month buying is lifting the indexes slightly before the close. Most end of month buying probably occurred on Wednesday so this is not expected to be strong. There is no strong reason to be long or short and cash is a position when there is no clear direction.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  12:35:20 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
The LONG signal was closed at 12:30:52 when the OEX traded below 479. With negative numbers across the board I did not see any reason to risk holding over the weekend. We can always reenter on Monday when Steve returns to the Monitor.

  Linda Piazza   11/29/02,  12:34:14 PM
The COMPX and the Q's continue testing and falling back from their 200-dma's. With the COMPX at 1484.46 as of this writing, it's below both the exponential 200-dma (185.86) and the simple 200-dma (1494.90), as indicated on Stockcharts.com. The Q's moved above and then fell back from the 27.91 simple 200-dma and the 28.09 exponential 200-dma.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  12:32:25 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's exit the current LONG signal with an OEX trade below 479.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  12:28:38 PM
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $57.14 -1.02% ... any reason why jnj has not participated in recent rally.i could not find any news.regards.

This is good question and only explanation I can come up with is that this one was the only stock in the Dow Industrials back in October that had a p/f buy signal associated with its chart when profiled bullish near $54. Since then, stock has traded $61, but seems to have not shows the leadership (similar to observations in 3M (MMM) above $132) that a bull wanted to see for sign that the MARKET really believes of impressive economic growth going forward. However, "one" thing in addition to the supply/demand chart of JNJ that I thought bulls should like is that the stock was in a more "defensive" sector in the "drugs" and not that economically sensitive. In recent weeks, it may make sense that the move higher in stocks was in advance of the upside economic data. So... not as much attention from the bulls in the drug sector or JNJ in recent month.

Hints that a greater part of the gains have come from the lower end of the snake (rising tide lifting all boats) and from the mid-portion of the snake, which has been the more economically sensitive stocks.

We note that Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) is now at 73.33% Link and a "higher" risk level for bulls and may have them getting a little more "defensive" over the next couple of weeks.

For a more "risk averse" bullish equity trader, it is my opinion that a stock like JNJ still makes for very attractive bullish candidate as stock trades ABOVE trend, on a "buy signal" and bullish vertical count is $74. With a "tight stop" at $55 (from p/f chart) bull's risk is $2. With stop below trend, risk is $5 to potentially make reward of $17 as it relates to p/f chart right now. Even to trend, risk/reward favorable longer-term.

I will note there were a couple "fundamental" calls on JNJ near $60 that upside based on current valuation was limited. Never know for sure, but that opinion may change somewhat with sock in mid-50's range.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  12:27:29 PM
Now under 40 minutes remaining in the trading day I feel like the risk is shifting to the longs. With no bullish carry over from Wednesday to energize traders they may begin to worry about the wisdom of remaining long over the weekend.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  12:26:34 PM
I propose to get things moving by noting that it remains a quiet day. My indicators remain parked. A little more buying in bonds, a touch higher on NDX volatility, lower on the TICK.NQ (-186), HUI flat with XAU +.73 (now *that's* an interesting divergence), TRINQ parked at .50. A 16 point range on the COMPX, we're currently right in the middle of it.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  12:01:47 PM
I had emails from readers in Torsten, Germany and Daressalaam, Tanzania saying the Java monitor was working well for them today. Now if I could get it to work for me I would be happy! (grin)

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  12:01:09 PM
There isn't much to report out of the bond market, since today's range of 109'11 to 108'21 didn't test either the low on Wednesday (108'16) or a 38.2% retracement of the range seen a few days ago (109'14). Note: 50% of Wednesday's range is seen at 109'23. In the bigger picture, the bond market would have to close above 111'12 before thoughts of a serious asset allocation out of stocks and into bonds would begin to materialize. Solid support underneath is felt at 107'31. Note: Weakness in bond prices should be supportive towards equities.

  OI Staff   11/29/02,  11:57:36 AM
Java Monitor Beta Testers! The Java Monitor Server has been rebooted. If you have not already done so please log out and log back in. If you do not log back in to your desktop client you will not recieve instant updates however you should still receive updates about every 5 minutes.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  11:57:33 AM
I have received several comments about lines and parking at Wal-Mart this morning. I am not surprised to hear of crowds there as every woman I know (granted that is not many) were planning on visiting WMT this morning. The reason was sales on top of their already very discounted prices as well as large selection of general merchandise. One reader in Washington said his wife had to park a block away. Another reader said the super Target was swamped this morning with police directing traffic to alternate parking.

A local TV station showed a clip on the mall shopping and the mall was deserted. They did not identify the local mall but from the storefronts it appeared to be one of the upscale versions. Appears discounters are in, Needless Markup is out.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  11:56:07 AM
CMGI Inc. (CMGI) $1.39 +15.8% ... Jeff, What is the target price of CMGI, currently trading @ 1.35, your CMGI entry for the trade was $.79

I thought traders should take gains on Tuesday at $1.16. Vertical count remains bearish to $0.00 and I'm not sticking around all that long in these type of AGGRESSIVE bull trades and just looking to scalp some type short-term moves. I had set a retracement bracket on CMGI from $1.30 - $0.28, which has CMGI above the upper-end of this retracement.

To get another upside target.... I'm not rolling up my retracement to $3.05. This gives me 38.2% retracement at $1.33 (very close to my "old" upper retracement) and gives me market maker resistance now at $1.66, which is 50% retracement. As such, stop $1.28, targets 50% at $1.66, 61.8% at $1.99 and $2.52 at 80.9%.

Note... I "like" this new retracement as it also ties in with past bullish profile for AGGRESSIVE bulls with 19.1% at $0.80, which correlated well with the 200-day SMA a bull looked for upside follow through from.

  Linda Piazza   11/29/02,  11:48:35 AM
Perhaps there are some regional differences in mall traffic, too. Although I live in Dallas, a daughter in Houston reported that a middle-of-the-range shopping mall (Macy's, Dillard's, Saks) had parking lots already half full at 8:00 am. Not much of a shopper myself, I won't be venturing near any Dallas malls today to test that regional theory, however.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  11:47:14 AM
It looks like the A/D line and the advancing volume are both starting to tick upwards. It is too early to draw any conclusions but with 75 minutes remaining in the trading day it is about time for any move to appear. With oscillators rolling over that move may not be up. There is simply not enough volume to lift the markets and normally lack of volume favors the bears.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  11:41:43 AM
Jim, We'll they're not at the Mall either. My wife just returned from a "quick" trip to Macy's to pick-up one or two things with her mother. She thought she had better go early just to get a parking space. Well guess what, no one was there! Walked right in, got what she wanted and walked out, just like any sleepy Friday morning. Considering that mall is in a relatively affulent area (Manhattan Beach, Ca), it is not looking like a blockbuster shopping season at the high end stores if you ask me. One other note, she did say the parking lot at Target was rather full. Just an observation. Keith,

I have had several observations from readers today that there was no mall crush this morning. Considering all the 50% off deals here in Denver it is hard to imagine what they will come up with to lure shoppers in the weeks ahead if they can't lure them today.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  11:41:15 AM
A note on Elliot Wave. I like to follow the forecasts to see where they agree or disagree with my own, but must confess that I've never been able to understand the theory sufficiently to rely on it at all. Alternate wave counts abound- are we in a corrective 3(c) of impulsive b of an ABCDEF down? I dunno. Although it seems as if gold and the markets are frequently being counted to be on the brink of a c of C down that will leave bulls sleeping in their cars and living on diets of pop-tarts. So far, it hasn't happened. Prechter, however, gives excellent interviews and I've heard good things about his latest book. Whether the press will end up forgiving him for missing the dotbomb bubble remains to be seen.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  11:39:59 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  11:35:52 AM
Yields, NDX volatility, breadth, price, gold and gut-feel indicators have done absolutely nothing since my last post. But I'm still here, and mostly sentient.

Jim, if you ever want to try a real test of wit, try Boggle. Trivial pursuit, like Scrabble, is little more than a game of chance. But Boggle is the stuff of which lasting family feuds are made. I recommend it highly. That, and flea collars.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  11:33:47 AM
Linda, I did not get the "downtown Frank" question but we did get questions like this. "Who was sued by a fan in Atlanta after tossing a homerun ball into the stands as a souvenir", "What is the diameter of the Alaskan pipeline?", "What is the current name for the website formerly known as "Jerry's guide to the world wide web?", "What site was the first search engine and known as the mother of all search engines?"

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  11:28:19 AM
It has been brought to my attention that Elliot Wave and myself look at some of the same levels, but in a different way. Elliot uses cycle theory, while I base a shift in sentiment on patterns of either long liquidation or extension of short covering into new buying patterns. The level is question is 9077 in the Dow, and a close above would have me (as well as Elliot) thinking about a change in scope. With the Dow needing to rise roughly a thousand points to have a flat year, a close above 9077 could really be a nice catalyst. The thinking is based on a weekly chart of the Dow, and a close above 9077 would have me rethinking a possible "b" pattern. The apex, if 9077 is not taken out, should be near 8035. An article that touches on this thinking is here: Link

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  11:27:24 AM
What if they opened the market for trading and nobody came? That could describe today's market action.

  Linda Piazza   11/29/02,  11:20:05 AM
Jim, did you get the question about Ozzie and "downtown Frank"? They didn't make that version for us baby boomers.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  11:04:51 AM
I don't know how they deal with fleas in Canada but my ape family here in Denver got rid of them a long time ago. Now if only I could get rid of the dogs and homeless 20 somethings. My daughter came over for Thanksgiving and brought her four dogs, which equaled the number of single males that wandered by for free food as well. We did have a marathon game of Trivial Pursuit using the new 20th anniversary edition. I did not remember is being so hard in previous editions. Fortunately old age and treachery overcame youth and skill and the married couples beat the recent college grads. What does that tell you?

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  10:54:20 AM
Jim, your yawn is contagious. I almost passed out when I read it. As a piece of useless trivia, the theory I've heard on yawn contagion is that it originates in the migratory patterns of apes. Apes tend to stay in one place until it becomes too flea-ridden for comfort, or some other condition makes it propitious to leave. It was evolutionarily beneficial for all of the apes to be equally rested when it became time to depart, and so it's beneficial that they all fall asleep at the same time. Thus, the contagious yawn evolved as a way of insuring that all the apes in a given family be equally rested (or not), so that they could work better as a team.

If you're all still awake, gold has gone positive, and the HUI and XAU are now up from their lows and in the green. The TRINQ and QQV are showing little guidance, and yields remain negative. A light selling day, 'tis.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  10:53:15 AM
Pre Paid Legal (PPD) $29.15 +9.4% ... Whats up with PPD this morning,its up 10% and I can't find any news?

I see no news, but not much overhead supply to keep stock in check. Stock broke above 200-day SMA about the same time as stock gave double-top buy signal at $23. Today's action and even recent looks a bit like some shorts getting squeezed. Note tight consolidation in recent four sessions then.... "boom!" Link

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  10:49:49 AM
I am sitting next to my friend Jeff this morning, and I noted that there is a MACD bullish divergence in the Dow on a one-minute chart. I do believe that we may see some squaring of positions once above 8925. The Dow is almost there now. Of course, the lows cannot be tested going forward. Note: Lack of volume is definitely a worry.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  10:47:42 AM
Is it 1:PM yet? Yawn!

Shopping sentiment must have replaced bullish sentiment or all the traders are still comatose from too much turkey.

  Linda Piazza   11/29/02,  10:39:49 AM
The Q's climbed above their simple 200-dma average this morning, but have again fallen back from that area. Volume patterns aren't quite as favorable as they were earlier today, either, with the NYSE issues now showing a 1.09 adv/dec number and the Nasdaq issues showing a .91 (more declining and advancing issues). New highs outnumber new lows on both NYSE and Nasdaq and up volume is still ahead of down volume on both.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  10:29:24 AM
Nextel Communications (NXTL) $13.86 +2.14% ... If you have a minute, what are your thoughts on the YLS.X? Look at >the chart! It hasn't even looked back once. Then, look at NXTL. Do you see >its chart starting to 'give in'. I was thinking about shorting it because >looking at the chart kinda says we could see $11ish right around the >corner. I was wondering what you thought if you had a minute. Thanks!

Hmmmm.... p/f chart bullish Link.

I wouldn't be "big" type of short/put buyer in NXTL at current levels. May want to keep an eye on the YLS.X Link try and wait for it to generate some type of "sell signal" to hint of any type of weakness. YLS.X bearish resistance above at $68 here.

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  10:29:07 AM
Japan released their timetable on Friday regarding a framework for injecting public funds into their depressed banking sector. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's cabinet also formally endorsed a plan to keep spending levels in the next fiscal year below this year's, as well as restraining new bond issuance as much as possible. The dollar strengthened slightly on the news (since was reported by Reuters earlier in the week); nevertheless, the USD/JPY moved out to 122.52. Solid support is seen at 120, while a move above 126.50 could send the spread out to 135. Speaking of the Dollar, the DX00Y contract is currently lower overall at 106.43 and might test strong support between 106 and 106.25. Note: A weak dollar can easily start to pressure stocks in general.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  10:21:24 AM
The Fed has added 3.5B via 4 day repo, refunding most of a 4B repo expiring today. I guess Al needs some scratch for the holiday weekend- about 500M should do it :)

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  10:14:40 AM
Fair Value guy/sell programs .... were not included in this morning's 09:00 Update. HL Camp usually takes Friday's after Thanksgiving and days either side of Christmas holiday off, closes their doors. Most institutions aren't around to trade anyway.

  Linda Piazza   11/29/02,  10:11:16 AM
A scan of intermarket relationships and volume patterns shows the VIX up, but off its highs; and the XAU and yields down, but off their lows. Volume patterns show a 1.5 adv/dec number for both NYSE and Nasdaq issues, and a tepid 34/20 up/down volume pattern for NYSE stocks and a more vigorous 97/24 up/down volume pattern on Nasdaq stocks. At times, these indicators all line up in favor of a certain type of trade, but they're not doing so yet today, with volume patterns indicating bullish plays might be good while the increasing VIX and lower yields indicate that bearish plays might see good results. All in all, I'm glad for my modest positions and hedged plays on this Friday of a holiday weekend, staying comfortable as I watch to see what the markets will do next.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  10:09:17 AM
Looks like everyone is at the mall instead of trading this morning and we appear to be wandering aimlessly despite a bounce over the 200 DMA on the NDX. The strong gains from Wednesday are in danger if we cannot mount a credible move into positive territory soon.

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  9:57:34 AM
Liquidity is reported fairly light at the CBOT, but I believe we could get a squeeze out of some yield curve trades put on this morning. This is when traders buy five-year notes, sell tens, and are basically bearish on stocks. However, when equities bid, these same traders must quickly look to unwind their bond position and/or buy equity futures to offset some risk.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  9:55:55 AM
Chicago, Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- United Airlines may not reach a new agreement with its mechanics in time to avoid bankruptcy after previous concessions were voted down, analysts said.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  9:47:57 AM
I saw news yesterday that UAL's attempts to settle its labor disputes weren't as successful as initially hoped. This could account for weakness in the XAL, and also in GE, one of UAL's major creditors.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  9:43:31 AM
Early sector action is modestly positive.

Gains found in Fiber Optic (FOP.X) +1.7% and Oil Service (OSX.X) +1.9%.

Losses are less than 1% with Airline (XAL.X) -0.9% and Utility (UTY.X) -0.76%.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  9:41:40 AM
The TRINQ has made it up to .31 on this slight pullback, but the QQV has fallen to 41.61 during the same time. Looks more like opening chop than a significant divergence. Famous last words...

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  9:40:42 AM

IDEC Pharmaceuticals (IDPH) $33.14 (unch) .... in an 8-K filing with the SEC, the company disclosed that COO Bill Rohn plans to sell up to 300,000 shares beginning December 4th. Link

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  9:36:19 AM
Few notes: Equity mutual funds reported net cash inflows totaling $3.5 bln for the week ended Wednesday, November 26. The largest percentage went into non-domestic funds. Technology had inflows of $274 million, the largest since 4/15/02.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  9:33:20 AM
8 point gap up open on the COMPX to 1495. TRINQ .18, QQV +.98 to 42.05.

  Jeff Bailey   11/29/02,  9:32:42 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

  John Seckinger   11/29/02,  9:31:26 AM
While there are no economic releases today, economists should continue to revise their ISM numbers higher. The ISM is scheduled for Monday at 10:00 a.m., and estimates are for a 49.5 reading versus 48.5, month prior. I would not be surprised to hear the whisper number is closer to 51.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  9:27:00 AM
Nasdaq Futures are far outstripping the Dow and S&P at +10.00 (1134). This is well above the 200 DMA and could provide a little breakout momentum. There has not been a lot of stock news this morning and any gains will be running on sentiment left over from Wednesday. We are long the broader market from OEX 480.25 with resistance at 487 and again with the 200 DMA at 494. The markets will trade a shortened schedule today with a close at 1:PM.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/29/02,  9:09:42 AM
It looks like bad news in Europe (read, hope of future ECB rate cut) is good news for the US. QQQ is trading up to 28.17 from its close of 27.91 with NDX futures +11 and SPX +3.50. Yields, however, are down, FVX -4.9 bps, TNX -5.8 bps, and TYX -6.4. US Dollar Index is trading around 106.60.

  Linda Piazza   11/29/02,  8:55:30 AM
As the opening of the U.S. markets approaches, all European markets except the FTSE 100 are now positive.

  Linda Piazza   11/29/02,  7:34:41 AM
A Bloomberg report issued this morning notes that the European consumer confidence level fell from a minus 12 to a minus 14, the lowest level in five years. Unemployment, expected to rise to 8.3%, proved a major contributor to the lowered consumer confidence level. Along with this flagging confidence level, inflation measures dropped, clearing the way for the ECB to lower rates at their December 5 meeting. ECB council member Ernst Welteke told a German newspaper that the ECB could possibly lower rates if no negative pricing developments occurred before the meeting. Slowing growth in the German economy appears to be the biggest problem, some note. This morning, the German DAX is down .27%, with the CAC 40 down .50% and the FTSE 100 down .73%. In Asia, the Nikkei ended up .42%.

  Jim Brown   11/29/02,  2:21:04 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link


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