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  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  9:40:54 PM
Broadcom (BRCM) $18.15 -6.58% ... might be a good tech stock in the NASDAQ-100 to be looking short/put on break at $18.00. Bullish vertical count of $21 achieved and looks to have some downside to $14-$15 near-term. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  9:26:03 PM
JD Edwards (JDEC) $14.22 -2% ... stock last traded $12.22 in after-hours... hi jeff...what is your take as to why JDEC trading lower on good news..thx

First thought was they may have said something like "competitive environment, lack of corporate sending...."

However, as I read their press release, one reason they beat estimates was a one-time tax gain of $25 million due to a change in tax codes. Excluding this gain, earnings were $16 million or $0.13 per share.

I can't find any other news than this.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  4:52:32 PM
Daimler/Chrysler (DCX) $33.75 -5.11% .... just before the close announced that November sales declined 12% on a year-over-year basis, which was better than First Call estimates for -17.4% decline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  4:50:39 PM
Tenet Healthcare (THC) $17.84 +0.45% .... stock has been all over the board in extended hour, currently $16.76 hafter saying that it now expects earnings per share in the range of $2.38-$2.78, which would be below revised lower concensus of $2.86 per share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  4:46:17 PM
Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $19.23 -3% ... released for trading at $19.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  4:27:47 PM
JD Edwards (JDEC) $14.22 -2.06% ... stock lower at $13.97 after reporting Q4 earnings of $0.13 per share, which was bettern than consensus for $0.11. Company said revenues rose 2.6% year-over-year to $247.2 million, which was ahead of consensus for $244 million.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  4:16:18 PM
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) $19.23 -3% ... halted with news pending.

HPQ saying it expects to achieve $3 billion in merger cost savings for 2003 and if achieved will be one-year ahead of schedule.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/02,  4:00:27 PM
It's interesting that the OEX fell short of testing yesterday's low of 473.31 this afternoon. (See my 12:37 post.) As of this writing, the OEX also hasn't yet moved below today's lows. Daily stochastics point to a further fall, but I can't emphasize enough that stochastics haven't been the best predictors of price action lately, at least on downturns. If some of you are still short the OEX--and I know there are some of you--consider Jim's comments about the whipsaws in the markets as you make account management decisions about holding those short positions overnight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  3:54:31 PM
Earning's season is winding down but after the bell, one-time software favorite J.D. Edwards (JDEC) Link $14.11 -3% expected to report EPS of $0.11 versus year ago $0.16.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  3:54:17 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm not going to enter short with 8 minutes in the trading session and economic data out in the morning. However, the plan for tomorrow will target a move under 8670 as a short entry point, unless I hear something overnight that changes my mind. Dow is 8728 and looking very heavy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  3:51:49 PM
Note how the TRINQ is still at only 2.68, while the TICK.NQ is reading -345 and the COMPX is below 1450. That bounce only relieved the extreme readings on the indicators, and is now headed back toward the low of the day. Precious metals are continuing higher still- HUI is currently at 119.29, +4.8 on the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  3:36:06 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/02,  3:23:51 PM
Those of you who don't subscribe to Qcharts, but would like to watch the ADV/DEC line, you can check the free site at www.livecharts.com and use the same symbol Jim mentioned (ADVDECV). Although much of the information you'll find on the free portion of the site is delayed, I believe the ADVDECV is realtime, as is information about the major indices.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  3:13:55 PM
XAU is now up 3 to 66.50, HUI +4.06 to 118.55, extending their gains on the day. The COMPX is trying for higher, with higher lows on the 5 minute chart. Should be a very interesting last hour.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/02,  2:59:07 PM
My oscillators on the 60 min chart (MACD 8,18,6), (STO 10,3,5) have begun turning up and could be indicating a trend change. The A/D volume is not showing it yet but is on the verge of turning up. Until we get several positive bars on the 5 min chart I think the bounce is limited to market leaders and is lacking enough breadth to support it. In the time it took me to type this the A/D volume set a new low with just one candle and cancelled the potential change in direction.

If you want to follow this indicator it is ADVDECV in Qcharts. I use a five min chart and try to limit the chart length to just one day. Here is a link to the current chart: Link This is a link to the oscillator chart: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  2:56:41 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We never got the breakdown that appeared to be shaping up and I am exiting the short signal for the Dow at 8665.

Our next opportunity may be a long play on a Dow trade over today's intraday high of 8815.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  2:56:12 PM
What do you think of this move in XAU?

Response: From a techincal point of view, since the daily bullish trend line (low on October 10th that bisects through the low on October 17th) held, I believe this rally could be less based on short covering and more based on new money coming in. The 200 DMA (exp) is just above at 66.82 and should offer some resistance. Once above the 200 DMA, I would not expect the XAU to begin falling again. If it does, a test back to 64 may be in order. Above the 200 DMA (which coincides near a relative high on October 7th at 67.15), I would look for a move back to 71.25 and set the top of a wedge formation (beginning on September 26th). A buy signal when using P&F comes in at 72. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/02,  2:48:31 PM
It is interesting that we are seeing a bounce in the markets but the A/D volume is still declining. It is growing at a much slower pace but still trending down. We are rapidly approaching the intraday highs of 8815 on the Dow and a breakout over that level could cause short covering. We are definitely in the "trade what you see" mindset and I feel like I am on a merry-go-round with the constant changes in intraday direction. We are far from seeing a return of the bullish trend but also refused to test the lows of the day. This sideways market is dangerous to try and day trade and getting whipsawed is a fact of life. Waiting patiently should be the game plan.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  2:36:38 PM
Thanks, Wes. Yields are indeed climbing, now in the green. Is it fuel for a stock bounce? Not much so far. It could well be the 22 primary dealers making good their 8b dollar debt to the fed on those repos. Let's watch the afternoon's range in the COMPX for clues.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  2:32:44 PM
Checking the intermarket relationships, the XAU is higher by 4% at 66.02, while the dollar is slightly weaker at 106.24. Both contracts are holding a bullish trend line (61.59 and 105.95, respectively), and support in the Greenback could be controlling the selling in stocks. Looking elsewhere, both the UTY and XOI contracts are higher by roughly one percent but still within a consolidation period that began a month prior. A breakout higher from the UTY and/or XOI index could be a positive catalyst for stocks. Since the Dow is coming back towards 8800, watching the UTY and XOI for confirmation seems to make sense.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/02,  2:21:26 PM
No change at CSCO. A Dow-Jones news report said this:

CEO Chambers, speaking at an analysts' meeting here, said he would not address the company's financial outlook for its second quarter. He cited a Cisco policy not to comment on quarterly business patterns unless there is a material change in its guidance to Wall Street. Last week the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to be flat to down by 3% to 4% from first quarter revenue of $4.85 billion. It did not offer an earnings projection.

This means there has not been any improvement and there is still risk of downside if I am reading it correctly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  2:20:05 PM
INTC is currently down 3.04%, the day after Dan Niles' bullish call on the stock.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  2:19:37 PM
Treasuries Long-end of bond's seeing some selling here as YIELDS edge higher. May bring a bid into stocks here.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  2:16:58 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We will go SHORT the broader market on a Dow trade of 8660.

I think the market internals are looking more bearish and the failed rally has my trigger finger ready. I also like the break back below the ascending trendline in the Dow at 8750. There is some economic data out in the morning to be careful of, but things are looking ugly. Comparable entries will be OEX 465 and SPX 910.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  2:15:28 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $56.73 -1.7% ..... stock edging back today into rising 21-day SMA with 50% retracement support at $56.17. Link

QQQ and NDX traders monitor MSFT as largest weighted stock in the index Link.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/02,  2:11:34 PM
The improving internals from the 12:30 bounce look like they developed a bad case of asthma as they quickly ran out of breath. The A/D volume blink turned into only a speed bump on the downward slide. The afternoon bounce attempt ran into resistance well below the intraday highs. The key for the rest of the day would be a breakout over 8815 on the upside or a break below the lows of the day at 8725. Below 8725 is support at 8670 and psychological support at 8700. This makes the playing the downside risky until that 8760 level is broken. It is not that I expect a rousing rebound at 8760-8700, especially after the lackluster bounce attempt. I do expect continued indecision which could consist of some program trades firing off at those levels.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/3/02,  2:10:16 PM
Those bullish comments from SEBL ($9.16 +0.55) have helped the GSO.X software index to rebound from its intraday low of 113.32. But looking at the big picture, the GSO isn't looking so hot. Yesterday's spike above 120 and subsequent reversal aren't going to encourage more buying. The falling daily stochastics (5,3,3), along with the move back below the 200-dma (116) are indications of technical weakness.

ADBE ($29.10 -1.07) looks like a possible short-term bearish play within the sector. Much like the GSO, the stock's oscillators are falling and shares have sold off from the 200-dma. The p-n-f chart is also showing a fresh three-box reversal. Bears can watch for a move below $27.00 to clear the way for a possible test of the 50-dma at $24.35.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  1:54:42 PM
If I were sitting in a bullish position, which I'm not, I'd be a little concerned at the lack of oomph on this bounce off the lows, and the way that the TRINQ blew off its redline reading to fall back to 2.81 without any altitude in the underlying price. The TICK.NQ is still -133, and the FVX recovered only .4 bps or so to be down 1.1 bps on the day. The COMPX is at 1454. HUI and XAU are still up nicely on the day, and the QQV is still showing a decent 1.74 rise in fear on the day. A return to the day lows will look bad indeed, but yesterday should have taught bulls and bears alike to take nothing for granted. Bears who zipped their shorts from yesterday made a very professional decision to close out near today's lows. If the stochastics and TRINQ return from oversold without a corresponding price bounce, I will expect more downside to come. Remember, the fed drained $8b today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  1:50:25 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/02,  1:44:50 PM
Now that the lunch break is over, we get to see what the afternoon will bring. Five-minute charts on the OEX show bearish divergence (higher high on price with equal highs on stochastics) and fifteen-minute stochastics look topped out, but the hourly stochastics are oversold. Daily stochastics still point down, indicating a negative bias overall, but stochastics haven't given good sell signals for a while. I'd watch price. Currently at 471.27, the OEX hasn't yet had the strength to test that broken short-term (10-day) ascending trendline, now crossing just above yesterday's low of 473.31. So far, so good, if you're in a bearish play, but that oversold hourly stochastic warns you to be careful with stops.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  1:38:01 PM
Swing Trade Signals
It feels as though we are just sort of bouncing around in space right now. I think a lower low below Dow 8670 would be a significant signal to go short. A breakout above the August high of 9077 would be a 1/2 position long sign, with a full long position over the 200-dma of 9173. I'm going to try and avoid day trading and look for more significant signals, to avoid whipsaws, but if we get back above 8800, then I'll look for a move over the day's high as a possible 1/2 position long. If we fail at a lower high, then I may look to enter 1/2 position short. We are certainly seeing some action, but it is not well defined, and almost any entry today after the open was subject to a reversal.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  1:35:28 PM
One sector underperforming on Tuesday is the Semiconductor Index (Sox), currently lower by 3.7% at 361. Using the high in early March and the lows in the beginning of October, a 38.2% retracment comes in at 376. The high today in the Sox is 375. The 22 Weekly Moving average is lower at 335 and should be an objective for bears going forward. A close back above 376 should get longs involved once more. It will be interesting to see if this index continues lower on Wednesday.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/3/02,  1:16:40 PM
Siebel Systems (SEBL), $8.83 +0.24: The stock is going vertical after Bloomberg reported that according to the company's CEO, the IT market is firming and demand is looking stronger in the Fourth Quarter. Shares are still below short-term resistance at $9.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/02,  1:15:24 PM
Looks like that bounce at 8725 could stick. The A/D line is improving significantly and the A/D volume is starting to see an uptick after being very negative all morning. Futures are trending up as well as the major averages.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  1:01:02 PM
Jeff, thanks for the help on P&F charting once again. Looking at the bond market for equity bearish confirmation, the '09 tick increase to 109'20 is not complementary for traders expecting a huge downward move. The next area of resistance is at 110'12. Looking at the Dow, the bullish trend line is now higher at 8817. On thing that comes to mind is that, on November 21st, the daily H&S formation was rejected and the head was taken out as prices rallied. If prices fall back towards these areas (using Jim's 8670 area), the pattern that squeezed shorts and got bulls involved would take on a different view. The reverse could happen, with longs getting out and bears getting aggressive.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/02,  12:37:35 PM
On the Nasdaq, down volume now outnumbers up volume by slightly more than 10:1 (751M down with 74M up). Adv/dec numbers have stayed rather steady, with a .55 number for NYSE issues and a slightly lower than earlier number of .39 for Nasdaq issues. On the OEX, fifteen-minute and hourly stochastics are oversold and trying to hinge upward. During the lunchtime break, issues sometimes move up a bit on otherwise down days as sellers go to lunch and volume thins. I've been looking at a ten-day chart on fifteen-minute intervals and can draw an ascending trendline that was broken this morning. If the OEX does test this trendline during the lunch period, I'd look for a failure or a move back over the trendline in the area of yesterday's lows at 473.31. If that test occurs later, the test would occur a little higher, as it is a rising trendline.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/3/02,  12:37:03 PM
If we are going to bounce this is the level where it should occur. The 8670 low from 11/26 would be the critical level but 8725-8750 is the likely bounce point as traders try to anticipate the bottom. The AOL news was negative along with the housing news but there is still a bullish trend in place. Unless the 8670 level fails that trend is still in place. A failure at 8670 could setup a possible head on the current charts making the Nov-4th high the left shoulder. It is still way to early to be speculating on this pattern but it would be very bearish. Still a problem in our future is the CSCO/INTC analysts meetings.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  12:20:17 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Those traders who chose to enter short under Dow 8750 can look at 8820 as a possible stop, which is just over the high of the day. Alternatives are the entry/breakdown point of 8750 and intraday resistance at 8775. Current levels are Dow 8737/OEX 469.37/ SPX 920.21

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  12:00:04 PM
Because we're watching longer timeframes, I'd suggest that bears take a look at the 60 minute chart and the daily. This 1450 level has not yet fallen, although it's not looking terribly robust at the moment. I see a triple bottom support line on the 60 min/ daily candles, and another good burst of selling will break it, but at 1447, I'd want to see more downside- at least to around the 1440 level. With the TICK.NQ at -392 currently, we have a good chance of seeing it.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  11:58:39 AM
Swing Trade Signals
While I said I'm waiting for Dow 8670/OEX 466/SPX 912, which would be lower lows, traders looking to get in with short 1/4 or 1/2 positions under the Dow trendline break at 8750 should be in with the Dow trading 8737.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  11:44:16 AM
The put to call ratio continues to sink modestly with the latest reading at .64. I don't think I'd be building my next sandcastle on COMPX 1450, and only the slight recovery in yields (1.5 bps on the FVX, not much) and the persistent TRINQ at 3.71, which is plenty high makes me think that 1450 might hold here. HUI is now up 3.04 on the day and XAU +2.14. Precious metals are looking pretty precious today.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  11:42:59 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Had we entered short on the open, we'd be up 30-40 Dow points on the day. While I'm not sure it wouldn't have been the right move, I've highlighted what we are playing against on a short play here. There is a rising trend and a series of higher lows, which would be in tact all the way down to Dow 8670. While things certainly look bearish this morning, and I'm leaning toward a short play, I may wait until we get that decisive trend reversal, with a lower low, before entering a full short position. Traders who want to capture the possible move down to 8670, can look for 1/2 positions under 8750, which would be a trendline break. I'm going to be more cautious, and you can check this graph to see why. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  11:38:35 AM
Per 10:52:50 post, shorts did defend 8800 and the apex of the long liquidation pattern. It is likely no coincidence that the low during the first five minutes of trading was 8799 on a five-minute chart. This makes me think of an "open-drive" pattern. I still would like to see the Dow move farther away from the bullish trend line (now at 8809), but bulls know they have to protect these levels. For information on an open-drive pattern, see article Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  11:37:38 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/02,  11:04:07 AM
Although bond yields have moved off their lows, the adv/dec lines and up/down volumes haven't improved appreciably from earlier this morning. On NYSE issues, adv/dec is now .58 as opposed to .51 earlier, and on Nasdaq adv/dec is .40 now as opposed to .42 earlier.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  10:54:53 AM
The put to call ratio opened at .80 and dropped to .69 on this latest reading. Bad news for bulls if bullishness is increasing on the decline. The QQV is +1.70 to 45.72 and the TRINQ is the highest I've seen in a long time, 3.79 with the TICK.NQ -223. Given the weeks upon weeks of extreme low TRINQ readings, I would hesitate to bet on a reversal at these levels, particularly with that bearish ascending wedge on the COMPX daily charts. If you're itching to go long, then do so at your own risk (ie set tight stops and stick to them). If short and wondering when to bail, I'd watch the 20 day SMA (QQQ 26.50), and use a trailing stop to ride it down and protect against a bounce. If flat, I'd use patience.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  10:52:50 AM
Sticking with a one-minute chart of the Dow, there is a pattern of long liquidation (lowercase "b") with an apex at 8800. A move back to 8800 might have shorts covering. The 200 PMA is higher at 8813, and should make its way lower and be tested sometime during today's session. If this does turn out to be an agressive move lower, expect prices to stay under 8780.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  10:48:37 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm looking at a regression channel on the Dow daily chart and I am a little concerned about entering a short here. We've seen several bounces off the lower trendline and I'm going to be patient for a breakdown. The Dow did give up my earlier pivoit of 8770, which I closed ahead of the trigger, and now that we are at the trendline, I'll sit out for a few moments. Here is a link to that channel. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  10:24:49 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are getting too many buyers at yesterday's lows and the sellers don't seem to have much strength here. If we are going to see continued dip buying in this area, then I'd rather not be short until those buyers get out of the way. The Dow never gave up 8770 and I'm going to close the SHORT entry signal for the time being.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  10:23:21 AM
Procter & Gamble (PG) $83.45 +0.78% .... stock traded session low of $81.50 now getting rebound. I had placed a retracement on this stock from $92.91 - $74.46, which has 61.8% at $85.86, 50% at $83.68 and 38.2% at $81.50, which correlates with this morning's support. Then have 19.1% at $77.98, which is my eventual target that would correlate with the bearish vertical count of $77. Might expect near-term resistance at $83.68, with more formidable resistance at $85.86. Link

Disclosure.... I currently hold bearish position in PG.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  10:18:06 AM
KB Home (KBH) $42.91 -4.3% .... home builder that may "fit" for bear per this morning's 09:00 Intraday update and Wall Street Journal Article. I've made some mental notes that recent weekend TV watching has the company showing a 30-minute "infomercial" of just how great their homes are for the first time home buyer. Hints to me they may be seeing the slowdown and now begin advertising to generate demand.

P/F chart looks bearish and would watch break at $41-$40 for further weakness. Vertical count is bearish to $32. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  10:13:16 AM
my newmont chart just broke the descending wedge...you a buyer of gold here?

I've learned to buy on the dips, but recall that I'm very long using mutual funds and coins. My next big purchase will be at the bottom of the range (295-300ish) or on a breakout above 330.

That said, here's NEM:

The oscillators are looking bullish, but it looks a little early, expecially with both MA's point down and looming overhead. On the otherhand, a long with a tight stop could let you front run the bullish wedge breakout if it follows through to the upside. But I'd take the stop as soon as it's crossed to avoid getting whipped back down for another few descending candles if it chooses to play out further.

Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  10:11:38 AM
I was surprised that the Dow didn't test its daily 50% retracement during that rise higher to 8815. The retracement came in at 8820. The longer the Dow spends under the bullish trend line (from October), the worse off sentiment will become. Here is a one-minute chart of the Dow: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/02,  10:11:10 AM
A scan of various indicators shows negative sentiment with adv/dec numbers at .51 for NYSE issues and .42 for Nasdaq issues, echoed by up/down volume patterns of 19/66 on NYSE and 22/156 on Nasdaq. Ten-year and thirty-year bond yields are down, and XAU, VIX, and VXN are up. All in all, these indicators line up in favor of put plays today, but I agree with Steven's caution until all the stars align.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  10:10:51 AM
Nokia (NOK) $18.60 -7.59% .... stock down after its year-end strategy update where company gave some outlook on wireless market. The company reaffirmed its view that 2003 handset sales can grow by 10% or more over the 400 million unit sales it expects for 2002. NOK said it sees the infrastructure market down 10% from 2002. The handset guidance is somewhat disappointing relative to Merrill's increased forecast of 474 million units issued yesterday in broad upgrade of the wireless sector and infrastructure guidance is also weak. Link

News out of NOK also weighing on shares of LM Ericsson (ERICY) $9.00 -5.66% Link

Making notes here.... two of the leadership groups for technology of late Wireless (YLS.X) 60.74 -4.75% and Internet (INX.X) 109 -5.3% (see 09:00 Update/AOL) have some "bad news" now in the sector and could threaten these leadership groups that have been leading NASDAQ-100 higher.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  10:07:23 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We got breakdowns in the SPX and OEX but the Dow has not yet given up 8770. I'm waiting for the stars to align before entering short here, given the bouncing in this range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  10:05:44 AM
Precious metals are up strongly this morning, HUI +2.31 to 116.80, XAU +1.75 to 65.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  10:03:41 AM
TXU Corp. (TXU) $15.41 +1.5% .... Utilities Index (UTY.X) 243.97 +0.65% getting a partial boost after Deutsche Securities upgrades TXU to "buy" from "hold" based on the belief that the company's liquidity is strong and risks are manageable, saying that the stock should trade quickly to $17-$18 based on the firm's expecatations that a one-notch downgrade on the company's debt by Moody's and the elimination of the Pinnacle Energy trigger by year-end. Deutsche raises their price target on TXU to $19 from $16.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  10:03:40 AM
The fed has announced an overnight repo of 2.25B. This is an $8b drain and will require significant selling somewhere, whether in bonds, equities, or possibly currencies. I don't expect to see any strength in equities today.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  9:57:58 AM
Swing Trade Signals
So far we're getting support at Dow 8780/SPX 925. That last rollover looked like it was ready to take out the day's low, but bounced again at those levels. We're not getting any real momentum with the adv/dec ratio weakening, so let's be patient until we see some momentum. Due to the gap down, there wasn't any opportunity to get in short and short entries so far would have been losers after the open.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  9:53:55 AM
There is a distinct lack of strength in the COMPX, and I'd be betting on the Fed to slam in a huge repo here, except that bonds aren't rallying to the extent one might have imagined. Having read the fed's view as expressed by the new governor, Bernanke, (link posted here yesterday), my guess is that the fed will save its bullets to buy bonds instead of propping up stocks, and as long as yields don't fall too far, I expect to see the fed act less aggressively than we've seen over the past month. This is all guestimation on my part, but with no announcement this morning yet, that's the best I've got.

For readers to whom all this is incomprehensible, see my article in Traders' Corner about the fed's open market ops.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  9:44:06 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are getting a small bounce here off of yesterday's lows. If this bounce fails, let's go SHORT the broader markets below the day's lows at Dow 8770/OEX 471.75/SPX 924.75. If we get any momentum off of this bounce I'll consider switching sides for a long play.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  9:43:09 AM
The highly-watched daily trend line currently comes in at 8793, and will slope upwards to 8840 by session's end. As always, traders have to be concerned about traps (market going under and then rejecting levels by the close). Here is the illustration I used yesterday: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  9:34:15 AM
10 point gap down open on the COMPX to 1274, TRINQ 1.51, QQV +.68 to 44.70.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/3/02,  9:33:50 AM
In last night's futures wrap, I touched on the manifestation of an RSI bearish divergence on a WEEKLY chart (Dow and S&P 500, not Nasdaq). The last time there was a weekly bearish divergence was in May and March. Of course, we need price confirmation; however, today could be a good start. What does the bond market say? The 30-year is up '15 at 109'26 and above resistance at 109'16. Unless the bond market were to rise a few full points, I am not sure we can get a techincal confirmation via bond prices regarding a bearish scenario for stocks (note: higher bond prices, lower stocks).

 
 
  Steven Price   12/3/02,  9:28:09 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Looks like our best opportunity may be to the short side this morning. After yesterday's bounce off Dow 8800, let's look for a break under yesterday's low and possible failed bounce under Dow 8800/OEX 474/SPX 930.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  9:26:39 AM
There are 10.25B in repos expiring today. Any amount below that added by the fed will result in a net liquidity drain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/3/02,  9:25:04 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  9:17:16 AM
Gold is now above 320/oz, with yields in the red, FVX -3.2 bps, TNX -3.3 bps, TYX -1.9 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  9:15:01 AM
QQQ is currently trading at 27.63, down from its close at 28. It will be interesting to see if Dan (de)Nile's bullish words on INTC yesterday succeeding in picking the exact top in that stock or not. Let's keep an eye on that.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/3/02,  8:45:52 AM
I've heard that in Japan, the equity markets are regarded as a joke, a rigged game orchestrated by crooks. I have no doubt that this is an extreme oversimplification. But last night, Bloomberg reported that the Japanese finance minister denied having said that the Yen needed to be devalued. So, the Nikkei of course bounced up. I've heard many false starts out of Japan lately- remember when it was announced that the government would be buying stocks? Meanwhile, the ECB, in yet another 180-degree about-face, has indicated that it might need to lower interest rates after all, and possibly within the coming days. Call me Cartesian, but it seems to me that for a bunch of renouned experts, none of these people know whether to... well, you know, or steal third. Perhaps Mr. Greenspan is going from one banker to the next the way I used to solicit signatures door-to-door for the MS bikeathon. Anyway, rant out.

US futures are slightly off, NDX -7.50, SPX -3.50. Gold is back above 318/oz.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/3/02,  7:30:54 AM
Although the Nikkei was up .33%, European markets are currently underwater, with the FTSE 100 down .89%, the CAC 40 down 1.34%, and the DAX down .88%. A Bloomberg television reporter mentioned this morning that European tech stocks were not benefitting from yesterday's Texas Instruments forecast of better-than-expected Q4 earnings per share and revenues, and remained weak. TXN mentioned stronger demand from chips used in wireless phones and analog chips. Rather than a decline of 5% in semiconductor revenue, TXN now expects a decline of only 2%. Revenue will be down only 7%, rather than the prior forecast of 10%. The company projects earnings per share at 3 cents rather than the previous forecast of 2 cents. Today, analysts meet with Nokia, the world's biggest cellphone maker, perhaps giving investors and analysts another glimpse of demand for cellphone components.

 
 
  OI Staff   12/3/02,  2:15:52 AM
Java Monitor Beta Testers! A new version of the Market Monitor desktop application has been posted to the download link you were given. If you are experiencing problems with your Market Monitor please uninstall it from the Add/Remove Programs Control panel applet then download and install the new version.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/2/02,  12:31:49 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/2/02,  12:31:17 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/2/02,  12:30:49 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

 
 

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