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  OI Staff   12/11/02,  4:26:54 PM
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  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  3:46:04 PM
Honeywell (HON) $25.24 +4.37% ... stock making sharp move higher. Dow Jones reports that company is nearing a deal to resolve asbestos suits. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  3:40:31 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  3:38:39 PM
Swing Trade Signals
With the move back over 8600 in the Dow, I'm leaning bullish over the next couple of days, as long as the SPX can break over 910. However, with retail and jobs data out tomorrow, a big disappointment could once again test today's low under 8500. I see resistance at SPX 913-915 and Dow 8680, so I'm not going to enter long at this level. However, if we head into the close over 8600, I would hold a small long position if I was already in, but with those barriers, entry from here looks to have limited upside before another pull back. I think the pattern of higher highs the last couple of days does looks positive. Note, however, that the COMP is struggling again at 1400.

Current levels Dow 8623/SPX 908.04/OEX 462.54/COMP 1399.50

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  3:33:32 PM
Upper trendline resistance is being tested now on the COMPX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  3:19:14 PM
On the 30 minute COMPX and SPX charts, lower trendline support has held, but so has descending upper trendline resistance. A coiling market, as some would say.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/11/02,  3:16:12 PM
I think we just saw a defining moment in today's market. The bounce off uptrend support could be signaling the level buyers are willing to enter new positions. The overhead resistance remains OEX 466 but we have a weak uptrend to watch for confirmation. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  3:06:02 PM
Costco Wholesale (COST) $28.59 -2.45% ... Link stock down at 52-week low and threatens a triple-bottom sell signal at $27. Just picked up on this one and while "wholesal retailer" that many firms have cautioned against, stock poses threat to Retail HOLDRS (AMEX:RTH) $73.25 -1.14%. Link

Thinking... if retail sales number are WEAK tomorrow and negative response to the ratailing group, then bull in the RTH may want to keep COST in mind as "hedge" short/put for RTH should COST trade the triple-bottom sell at $28. If the retailers are "going down" the COST may be a stock about to lead the way.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  2:45:11 PM
Price action in the equity markets are getting too micro (trading in a tight range) even for me. If the markets close here, it was interesting that the Dow tested the 8625 (8620 as high) area and failed, while the SPX and NDX tried to penetrate 910 and 1050 and both failed as well. These were solid resistance areas heading into the session. Was today's action simply profit taking ahead of the retail number, or sign of strength from bears? The bid in bonds tells me the latter; however, it might make sense to wait until yesterday's low in the Dow is taken out - which would take out horizontal and vertical support as noted in the futures wrap.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  2:42:32 PM
The put to call ratio has just come in at .69, as bullish speculation continues to grow on the way down. This is a bearish indication.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/11/02,  2:42:19 PM
Reader question: I am trial subscriber trying to understand your 'bullish count of $63' statement in your recent EK post. Is that the $63 high it posted in August 2000 that I see in a stockchart.com p-n-f chart? If not where can I see this number? And how do folks use this indicator? thanks -john

BTW, I just ordered ordered Dorsey's P-N-F charting book

Response: Good call on ordering the Dorsey book. Jeff swears by that thing! It's a great way to learn about point-and-figure charting. The bullish vertical count helps us gauge the upside potential of a stock. Think of it as an estimate of its price objective

Here's the p-n-f chart for EK: Link

Bullish counts are formed when a stock bottoms out, reverses, and gives a buy signal. A buy signal comes from a column of X's exceeding a previous column of X's.

To get the bullish count for EK, I counted the number of X's in the the current column (12), multiplied that number by three, and added it to the bottom of the line of X's where the column started (27). (12 x 3) + 27 = $63

It's important to note that the bullish count will increase if EK continues to move higher without giving a three-box reversal. For instance, a trade at $39.00 would add another "X" to the chart. This would change the bullish count to $66: (13 x 3) + 27 = $66.

All these X's and O's can seem daunting to a trader who's familar with bar charts. After some practice, however, it almost becomes second nature. You're off to a great start by getting the Dorsey book.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/11/02,  2:37:40 PM
The A/D line just went negative and the Advancing volume just went negative for the day. It appears the sentiment is changing back from oversold bounce to "let's try to break that support again". VIX is rising again and NDX futures are about to test 1030 again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  2:32:11 PM
They seem to be gapping the bids down on the COMPX- looks like some pretty hard selling just came through.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  2:28:58 PM
Campbell Soup (CPB) $24.07 -1.87% ... Jeff, I still have some jan25calls on cpb. What do you see as a possible top in cpb? It looks as if it has run out of steam.

Yes it does look like it has run out of steam. From previous comments, I showed a retracement on CPB from $21-$28.40, which has 50% at $24.70, which has been relative high and 38.2% at $23.82. Thus CBP rather range-bound recent couple of weeks. With bullish % reversing lower, would play the odds and move to the sidelines.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  2:25:02 PM
Dear Steven, Thank you for all the information we get through your commentaries. What do you think about going long on Tellabs at this price? Thank you, George

Tellabs (TLAB): $6.98 (-0.26) TLAB looked like it had found a bottom and begun to bounce this morning. However, that bounce stopped dead below the 200-dma of $7.62 (high of $7.48). The stock is also close to a new sell signal on the PnF chart at $6.50 after the failed rebound. I just don't really see much on a technical basis that would make me go long on this stock. At the very least, a break over the 200-dma would be required and even then I would only be targeting the resistance at $10 as my target.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  2:24:25 PM
Bond yields are headed south with FVX leading the charge, down 6.9 bps. QQV is still negative, down .72, but the TRINQ is rising, .92, and the TICK.NQ is -272. Bears want to see the COMPX go el tanko here, but there's a lower ascending trendline on the COMPX 30 minute candles that just provided support at 1392. Despite the lack of strength, the bulls have been lining up all afternoon, and the put to call ratio is still on the low side at .72.

 
 
  OI Staff   12/11/02,  2:23:32 PM
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  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  2:18:11 PM
How about KO (Coca-Cola) losing its fizz? Jeff must be in fine form today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  2:15:48 PM
Shares of healthclub/fitness services provider Bally Total Fitness (NYSE:BFT) $6.95 -18.3% are losing some weight and hold today's number 3 biggest losing position...

LOL Jeff! Thanks for the laugh!

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  2:13:47 PM
Steve, per 1:48 post, brings up a good point. Very neutral right here, and rightfully so ahead of the reports tomorrow. So why is the bond market bidding? Volume is pretty light in the bond pits, and I am sure some traders are nervous about a weak retail sales report. Also, Freddie Mac (FHLMC) did issue $3 billion 3-year notes, and it could be hedges lifted (selling Treasuries as the deal is prices for hedging purposes and then buying them back after the deal is done) that is supporting bonds. There is talk of Asian central banks buying bonds, but not confirmed. Is this a sign of weaker equities prices? Could be.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/11/02,  2:07:25 PM
Maria and major call in the same sentence? John

I know, I know, I was just responding to a dozen emails from readers who were asking if they should be buying stocks to get in before Maria's pension bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  2:01:02 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  1:51:17 PM
Referencing Kent's post, it's interesting that EK saw unusual activity in options yesterday. January 30 and 35 puts and calls were trading big time.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  1:48:32 PM
Swing Trade Signals
After the rally faded, we are right back in the middle of the intraday action the last couple of days. I'm going to wait for something to materailize at a significant support/resistance level before heading back in.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/11/02,  1:47:20 PM
Eastman Kodak (EK) $38.13 +1.16 is currently the strongest Dow component with a 3.1% gain. What's interesting about today's move is that shares have broken to new 52-week highs after consolidating under resistance at $37.00-$37.50. Pulling back to a weekly chart, you can see that this level corresponds with the 50% retracement from the 2001 highs to the 2002 lows. Link

Even though EK is a relatively slow mover, the stock seems to have enough upside momentum to reach the next retracement near $40.00. The lack of resistance on the weekly chart suggests that given enough time, shares could eventually rally to the $45.00 region. The p-n-f chart is showing a bullish count of $63.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  1:39:23 PM
Regarding Jim's post, if Maria were making a major market call, I would gladly take the other side of the trade. Didn't she begin talking about shorting at the October low?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  1:35:56 PM
Precious metals are starting to tack on some respectable gains after getting murphied yesterday, with HUI +1.66 and XAU +1.13. The put to call ratio has just printed the past hour at .73, showing laudable but potentially dangerous tenacity on the part of bulls. The TRINQ has risen to neutral bullish territory at .67, with the TICK.NQ -322. FVX continues lower, down 5.8 bps. This looks very not-bullish to me. COMPX gave the fight just above 1405 and is now at 1395, with the 5(3) 60 minute stochastics in a bear roll.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  1:35:25 PM
The Dow has reached 8575, and now looks to test 8550 and the bottom of the channel drawn per 12:22:14 post. I would be more bearish if the Dow hit 8625, but I guess 8620 is close enough. A move back above 8590 should put sentiment towards more neutral levels. To me, only a close under yesterday's low will take things bearish heading into Thursday.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/11/02,  1:34:39 PM
I have gotten numerous emails from readers asking about Maria's comments on pension funds buying stock to fund pensions by year-end. Evidently Maria said companies like IBM that plan on fully funding their plans by year end would be buying stock on the open market and that would cause a bullish bounce next week.

I have had several conversations with different people and this is the consensus. First, the number of companies planning on fully funding may be very few. Second, this is a yearly scenario and normally happens at this time and is already factored into seasonal trends. Third, just because IBM was planning on funding their pension does not mean they will be buying stock. Just shifting cash accomplishes the funding and the pension managers will be responsible for making purchases and asset allocations. They do not have to buy stock by year end. There is no rule that says they have to spend the money in any time frame or spend it at all. They could buy bonds if they thought the market was weak. Fourth, pension funding requires cash, which comes from profits and free cash flow and without profits the seasonal funding could be put off until next year. The health of the company dictates the timing of the funding.

After doing some research on this subject I am not convinced that this will produce any abnormal major move or alter the normal seasonal trends this year. I think Maria was simply making a comment based on a news sound bite and not making a major market call.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  1:01:14 PM
There is talk in the bond pits of traders looking to square positions ahead of tomorrow's Retail Sales number. Some people have told me that their clients are thinking of calling it a year and locking in their bonus. I would tell them that the 30-year just broke out higher and it should be time to look for a volatility play in bonds (should mean more volatility in stocks as well). Currently at 110'19, I would be surprised if this rally in bonds doesn't pressure stocks a little going forward (Dow to 8575 and then reevaluate). The close in the bonds (ZB03H) could be a good indication of what to expect for Retail Sales. A close above 110'16 should say 'weak report.'

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  12:56:43 PM
XAU up, VIX down, bond yields near their lows of the day (as of this entry), adv/dec figures mildly positive: Nison was right when he predicted a consolidation when the harami included a small body that was near the bottom of the previous day's candle. This range-bound action may change this afternoon, but that's the way it's working out now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  12:55:42 PM
Procter & Gamble (PG) $86.92 -0.83% ... Hi Jeff, How does the news today by Kimberly Clark affect PG. I have to think that this news would not be good for PG.

Well... PG Link does make diapers, so KMB news should be somewhat negative. Not sure if all of today's PG decline is KMB related. There is still talk (been for months) that PG may make a $5.5 billion bid for 44% stake in Beiersdorf's Nivea, in an effort to get some european exposure to help boos sales. However, Allianz (NYSE:AZ) $10.90 +3.02% Link (real business in insurance) , which owns the 44% stake may be balking at the price and if PG were to "pay up" may also be weighing a bit on the stock today.

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in PG from past profiles near current levels.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  12:22:14 PM
Talking to Jeff (again), and we put together this chart on the Dow (five-minute chart). Please see illustration: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  12:17:51 PM
The put to call ratio has settled at .72 for the past hour, as bullishness grows in step with price. The TRINQ is off its lows but still showing an overbought COMPX reading .40. QQV is down .16 on the day, and yields are near their lows, FVX down 3.6 bps. QQQ is fighting resistance at 26.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  12:14:12 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Did I close out too early? Possibly, since we are getting some support over 8600. However, with the adv/dec getting bipolar on us and the rally appearing to run out of steam, I'm comfortable closing here. As I have said in the last couple of wraps, given the big intraday swings in the broader markets, I'm going to be quicker to take gains than I would with a solid trend.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  11:57:10 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were stopped out on the LONG play, entered at 8530, when the Dow traded 8609 at 11:56:58

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  11:51:51 AM
Swing Trade Signals
TICK is weakening, so let's take the chips off the table if the momentum dies here, as it appears it is and look for new entries.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  11:50:05 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I'm raising the stop on the LONG signal to lock in a gain.

Close the long position on a trade of Dow 8609.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  11:42:20 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm watching the SPX struggle with the 910 level (currently 909.29). If I continue to see that struggle, I'll tighten up the stop and take the gain here.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  11:38:03 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I certainly like the move over Dow 8600/SPX 905/COMP1400 for the long position. However, I'm going to look for some support at 8600 before raising the stop on the play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  11:34:21 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  11:31:47 AM
Time to take a step back and look at a daily chart of the Dow (same trend lines used in last night's futures wrap). Is it a coincidence that the 22 DMA (exp) now lines up with the highly-watched 8625 area? I don't think so. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  11:19:24 AM
What are the volume patterns telling us about the next direction? Not much. As of this writing, adv/dec numbers are 1.16 on NYSE issues and even more evenly stacked on the Nasdaq issues at 1.01. Up/down volume does see more positive numbers on the Nasdaq, with a ratio of 300:162, perhaps indicating a little concentrated buying on some Nasdaq issues. Continuing a pattern of late is a higher number of new lows on the Nasdaq, but only by 22 new lows to 14 new highs. I'm not getting strong clues either direction, except that I would have expected stronger numbers as markets challenge yesterday's highs. Perhaps that will come as (or if) markets hold those highs from yesterday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  11:06:13 AM
That 1400 COMPX kiss has so far been short and sweet, and sweeter still (for bears) is that the put to call ratio dropped all the way to .75. The TRINQ is still bullish at .61 and the QQV is flat. As reader Jim K. pointed out, if this is the best that Mr. Bull can do with all that fed money, then look out below. I tend to agree, but wouldn't rush out and bet the farm on it just yet. The fed has been around much longer than I, and so have the markets. Have no doubt that they have their sleeves filled with aces. Then again, the markets have come down precipitously since the 2000 highs. Time will have to tell.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  11:05:00 AM
Because yesterday's price on the SPX dipped slightly below the previous day's price, it didn't print an inside day or a harami in the strictest sense, yet it was close to doing so. Yesterday's high on the SPX was 904.95. It did move above that level this morning before falling back. The COMPX did print an inside day yesterday, and its high was 1397.80. The COMPX also moved above yesterday's high briefly before falling back. So far, these indices haven't been able to stay above yesterday's highs, but the day is still young, and I'm keeping the upward hinge in the daily (5)(3) stochastics and Jonathan's repo figures in mind as I watch.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  11:04:56 AM
An hour ago it didn't feel like the Dow would trade in a range; however, that is the case now. Note: The range during the first five minutes was from 8571 to 8508, and both areas have acted pivotal and should continue to do so. The 30-year gave its "one tick bearish confirmation," and for the second day in a row it was a trap (read: signaled lower equity prices, but quickly reversed to null the signal). Looking elsewhere, the Utilities Index (UTY) has been involved in some price compression as of late, and this index could breakout soon (note: higher UTY index should help stock prices). The Sox is now at 324 and right on its trend line. Patience, I guess.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  10:51:20 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Nasdaq Comp has ticked just barely over 1400. I'd like to see some support at that level, but it's a baby step in the right direction. Right now we're testing both sides of that number on alternate ticks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  10:48:15 AM
Of interest today may be a report on the spot price of the 256-megabit chip. An online semiconductor trading site noted a 0.6 percent increase in price yesterday. This is the first increase in prices since November, and was attributed to a rush of short-term demand from the U.S. and European markets, coupled with low inventory. While one analyst thought this a sign of recovery, others point to a typical uptick in seasonal demand this time of year, followed by a typical downturn in demand after the holidays.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  10:42:31 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The broader markets took this morning's punch pretty well, but I'm not going to add to the long position, since I think we could still re-test 8350 and I'm not sure when that test will come. COMP/SPX/OEX all back into the green, with the Dow off 4 points. We could still roll over from here, as we consolidate in this range, but if we get a pop, I may raise the stop.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  10:41:34 AM
From a fervent fed watcher, Matt:

Total amount of fed $$ in today is 30.75B, 2nd highest for this rally. The highest was 31b 11/26 -- that day Dow was down 1.95%, but the next day was up 2.94%.

Good work, Matt. Of course, on the premise that the market is nothing but a liquidity meter (see my article on the fed in Traders Corner), the action in the indices will depend on what the fed chooses to do tomorrow. If they jam 20B in to cover the expiries, we can expect further upside action. If they allow it to drain, we'll expect the reverse.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  10:37:15 AM
With today's pullback in Citrix do you think this is a good entry for a call play? Thanks, Paul

Citrix Systems (CTXS) $12.34 (-0.18) I like the bounce off $12 as support for the stock, which is the bottom of the ascending channel we referred to in last night's write-up. I would prefer entry on a move over yesterday's intraday resistance at $12.82, which would put the stock in the green and show some strength, in spite of the stoch rolling over into a sell signal. I usually use oscillators only to confirm what I see on other charts and the stock has yet to register a PnF reversal (which would have come at $11.50). Conservative traders can wait for a move over $13.50, which is the next PnF "X"

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  10:34:31 AM
Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, is quoted as saying that OPEC needs to cut production by 8% (2 mln bbl/day) to avoid a "collapse" in oil prices next year. Bloomberg is reporting that this is in addition to OPEC cheating by 2.7 mln bbl/day. If the cut is not taken, it is believed prices could fall back below $20. Getting to the Dow, an explosive move higher has the Dow getting near the unchanged area. Note: Sox at 322 and only a few points from the aformentioned bearish trend line at 324.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  10:26:01 AM
The put to call ratio opened at .92, too high to make bears happy, and I'm eagerly awaiting the next reading, due in about 10 minutes, while the COMPX completes its gap-fill and prints new highs above yesterday's close. The TRINQ has finally gone bullish at .87, yet precious metals are adding to their gains, and bond yields are creeping up but still negative on the day.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  10:17:17 AM
st...@polo.net: Having problems responding to your email.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  10:14:19 AM
There are an additional 5B in fed repos expiring tomorrow, added several weeks ago, for a total of 17.75B in fed repos that need to be refunded tomorrow. This will constitute a very substantial drain on the markets if the fed does not add fresh repurchase agreements to replace it.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  10:09:03 AM
Mercury Interactive (MERQ): $30.55 (+0.75) New OI call play MERQ topped out at $30.00 yesterday and has moved over that barrier to a high of $31.17 this morning. Traders can watch for support over $30 for entry, which we are seeing so far this morning on the pullback.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  10:07:09 AM
The fed has announced an overnight repo in the amount of 4.5B. However, my previous post was incorrect, as it was a 2 day repo which expires tomorrow, and so the 4.5B is a net add. There are now 12.75 billion dollars in fed money available to be put to work in the markets, equities, bonds, currencies, etc. Be careful.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  10:03:49 AM
Sticking with a five-minute pattern recognition, the Dow should now use the 8508 area as resistance going forward. With the 30-year (ZB03H) still near the 110'16 (read: higher prices bearish for stocks), we could get some bearish confirmation. Linda also brought up a nice point on the Q's inside day, and I will be watching that as well. Thanks Linda. Looking elsewhere, the Sox is lower by 2% and back under a daily bearish trend line. Here is an illustration: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  9:55:58 AM
The opening gap down is getting filled, and, given the narrow range of price action this morning, the indicators aren't saying much about it. The TRINQ is still at 1.18, QQV is still up but off a little from its highs, currently +.53, and bonds are still seeing buying with the FVX -3.3 bps, TNX -2.8 bps and TYX -2 bps. Precious metals are slightly up, and so far there's very little direction. It makes sense to me that the COMPX should be coming down, but it isn't so far, and without clear direction, short-term trading here is awfully close to gambling. I'm awaiting the fed's announcement to see what Al Green wants to do about the 8.25B in overnight repos expiring today. Hopefully he's removed Jim's Santa Claus suit. What were they thinking yesterday?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  9:54:30 AM
Just for your consideration: For those who pay attention to inside days, yesterday the Q's printed an inside day, or a harami for those who follow candlesticks. Yesterday's highs and lows on the Q's were 25.95 high and 25.35 low. For those who trade on inside days, a move below yesterday's low would be considered bearish and a move above yesterday's high would be considered bullish. For those who follow candlesticks, a harami formation (one day's candle entirely inside the range of the previous day's long candle) can often be a reversal signal. Any combination of white-white, white-black, black-white, and black-black candles is considered a harami as long as the second day's candle is entirely within the range of the previous day's candle. Nison says that "[i]n a downtrend, if there is a harami with the second small real body near the bottom end of the trading range of the prior long real body, then the outlook is more likely for a market lull rather than for a price reversal." The real body of yesterday's Q candle was near the bottom of the previous day's candle and the Q's have been in a short-term downtrend. Other indices also printed inside days, or near inside days.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  9:52:46 AM
Schlumberger (SLB) $44.18 -2.57% ... after yesterday's close, oil service provider announced a reallignment within its SchlumbergerSema unit and will cut 1,600 jobs in U.S. and European operations, taking a $2.9 billion, or $4.96 per share Q4 charge. SLB also announced plans to cut WesternGeco workforce by 1,700, taking charges as result. In total, companywide Q4 charges will amount to $3.17 billion, or $5.44 per share. Link

SLB p/f chart is bullish and I'd look for pullback entry in low $40's. Will keep an eye on Dorsey's Oil Service Bullish % (BPOILS) which is currently "bull confirmed" at 52.08%. Would take a reading of 46% to see reversal lower into "bull correction" status. Sector bullish % has "habit" of trading up to 70%, then reversing back below 30%.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  9:51:12 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We got another low in the Dow at 8501. I don't think its a coincidence that we are seeing a struggle between buyers and sellers at a round number once again in that average, however the recent low in the 8475 range tells us that we shouldn't be overly concerned about a move a few points on either side. I am still looking at a pullback all the way to the 8300-8350 range as a buying opportunity before the end of the year, which is traditionally bullish. That being said, given the current width of swings we are seeing in the market, I may take long profits earlier than usual when we get them and re-up on dips to that area.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/11/02,  9:35:35 AM
The 30-year is now at the 110'16 resistance profiled yesterday. A breakout higher should be bearish for stocks, while weakness back to 110 would give more ammunition to equity longs. Looking elsewhere, the SPX Index is back under 900, while the NDX is near support at 1020. The first five minutes is over, and it will be interesting to see if the Dow uses the 8508 (low during first period) as either resistance or support in the near term.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  9:32:07 AM
Bullish % all three of the narrower Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPIND) Link , S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link , and NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link have reversed into "O" on their charts. Both the Dow and S&P-100 have achieved "bear alert" status (reaches a level above 70%, then reverses to below 70% without breaking the previous low). The NASDAQ-100 Bullish % is currently "bull correction" and would take a reading of 68% to achieve "bear alert."

Traders and Investors should be implementing defensive plans of action in their accounts where warranted.

The broader S&P 500 ($BPSPX) Link remains in "bull confirmed" status, but close to the 62% level for "bull correction" status. The very broad and slower moving NYSE ($BPNYA) Link and NASDAQ Composite (BPCOMPQ) Link remain in "bull confirmed" status.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  9:31:02 AM
8 point gap down open on the COMPX to 1382, TRINQ 1.16, QQV +1.07 to 45.70, TICK.NQ -194.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  9:27:42 AM
CDW Computer Centers (CDWC): $47.04 OI put play CDWC reaffirmed fourth quarter earnings guidance of $0.50-$0.52, however lowered revenue guidance, citing softer market trends than originally predicted. Stock currently trading $44.60 (-2.44) in pre-market.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/11/02,  9:24:52 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/11/02,  9:21:19 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currenty long a 1/2 position in the broader markets, with a stop of 8250 in the Dow. I'll let the opening dip shake out before evaluating longer-term.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/11/02,  9:02:12 AM
The futures have gone flat to negative this morning, with NDX -2 and SPX -1.50, QQQ trading down 6 cents from its close. The US Dollar Index is trading just above 105.40, and gold just under 325. Yields are negative, FVX down 2.5 bps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/11/02,  7:07:24 AM
This morning, a Bloomberg report quotes European Central Bank council member John Hurley as saying that worries about economic growth have grown while signs of inflation have abated. Some speculate that this may allow the ECB to lower rates further. Although major European markets have retreated from their highs, the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX remain strongly up on the day (1.23%, 1.14%, .63%, respectively). Aegon NV, the second-largest Dutch insurer, and Credit Lyonnais SA, a lender, led the gains. The Nikkei extended its back-to-back losses another day, losing .87%.

In other news, Spanish warships patrolling 200 miles southeast of Yemen, as part of a multinational force combating terrorism, intercepted a freighter which began its journey in North Korea. Investigators found twelve Scud missiles hidden in cement. Jim mentioned this news report in last night's wrap, and it continues to draw attention today.

 
 
  OI Staff   12/11/02,  4:35:40 AM
Java Monitor Users A new version of the Java Monitor for Windows has been released. Please download it from Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/10/02,  12:33:51 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/10/02,  12:33:29 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/10/02,  12:32:50 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

 
 

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