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  Jim Brown   12/30/02,  7:21:08 PM
Are you going to lose the Market Monitor?

If you have not signed up for the 2003 renewal special you are in danger of losing access to the market monitor beginning on Jan-6th. We think the information on the monitor is critical to any active trader. Beginning on Jan-6th we are going to be charging 75 cents a day extra on an annual basis for access to the monitor. If you have not already signed up for the 2003 renewal special you need to do so quickly before it expires.

Are the intraday thoughts of Jeff, Steve, Jonathan, Linda, Mike, Mark Phillips, Mark Wnetrzak, Kent, Ray, John and myself worth 75 cents a day? That is for you to decide.

Signing up for the annual rate for the newsletter and the monitor will also get you (2) option expiration mouse pads, (7) books on trading, (2) videos of Jeff, Buzz and myself. These are worth the extra 75 cents alone and they are free to Market Monitor subscribers.

Lock in the cheapest rate possible with a ton of freebies now! Click here: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  4:57:20 PM
Relative Strength .... I'm not talking about RS here as a "short-term" trader's tool. Just want to follow up on some of this weekend's "Ask the Analyst" column in case RS charting is new to a subscriber/trader/investor.

Makes sense that IBM $76.25 -1.43% is going to lose some RS versus SPX 879.39 +0.45% as the two diverge today. RS is now calculated at ($76.25/879.39)*1000= 86.70 and 86.70, or 87 is charted on RS chart (1-box scale). Link

Still not seeing a RS sell signal at this point. Tomorrow is another day and will continue to follow.

Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) $22.33 -2.82% also weak today RELATIVE to SPX. RS chart of SMH gets an "O" based on closing values. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  4:33:49 PM
Virus I'm back up and running after a little winter virus got my computer this afternoon. IT dept. was all over the problem like grease on a George Forman grill and things look to be working now.

Per 03:15 update.... major indexes didn't hold a close above their intra-day pivots, and somewhat negative in my view.

We can now begin calculating tomorrow's R2, R1, P, S1 and S2 with today's trading complete.

Tomorrow's "levels" are...

Dow Indu. S2=8,204 S1=8,268, P=8,316, R1=8,380 R2=8,428 (note today's Dow close of 8,332.85 is ABOVE tomorrow's pivot and short-term trader's support begins at 8,316) Short-term trader that held some puts overnight looks for, or wants some type of break below 8,316 in first 1/2 hour or so of trading tomorrow.

SPX S2=865 S1=872, P=877, R1=884 R2=889 (SPX close was 879, so just above tomorrow "pivot" of 877)

OEX S2=438 S1=441, P=444, R1=447 R2=450 (OEX close was 444.77, so just above tomorrow's "pivot" of 444)

NDX S2=969 S1=979, P=991, R1=1,002 R2=1,013 (NDX close was 990, so just below tomorrow's "pivot" of 991)

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/30/02,  4:03:14 PM
Spread/Combos/Premium Selling - Notable Events

Today's session has yielded mixed results with a number of issues rebounding from recent losses. Retail stocks moved higher in the afternoon with Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) among the gainers, while 3M Corp (NYSE:MMM) led the blue-chips to a positive finish and Cdw Computers (NASDAQ:CDWC) enjoyed buying pressure in the technology segment. Despite the upside activity, our bearish positions in these issues are not in danger. Investors also returned to Internet retailer Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), which had fallen significantly on heavy volume over the past few days. The stock is a new candidate for a bearish synthetic position but it appears the trend has reversed in the short-term. Other bullish issues included Stryker (NYSE:SYK) and Medicis Pharmacetical (NASDAQ:MRX), both of which are at maximum profit in their respective combination positions.

In the broader-market groups, oil shares continued to climb with crude prices, boosting some of our recent credit-spread candidates such as Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Royal Dutch Petrol (NYSE:RD) and Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO), but gold shares such as ASA Ltd, (NYSE:ASA) and Goldcorp (NYSE::GG) finally retreated from their lofty levels. Sunday's new positions were a mixed lot with UBS AG (NYSE:UBS) and Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) participating in a small rally in the banking sector while Raytheon (NYSE:RTN) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) slid lower in conjunction with the defense segment.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  4:01:28 PM
Interesting that KO appears to be ending the day at 43.42, just under the 43.43 July intraday low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  3:59:17 PM
In my 15:20 post, I mentioned that the recent highs in the INDU (and some of the other indices) were similar to the highs from August, so that retracement levels figured from the August-October fall were only slightly different than those from the October rally. John just mentioned the 8338 38.2% retracement of the rally. Is it possible that the 61.8% retracement of that August-October fall came into play this afternoon, too, as the INDU tried to move up? That number is 8359.03.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  3:59:10 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We lost those support levels I talked about for conservative traders of SPX 880/OEX 475. I'm less bullish heading into tomorrow than I would have been over those levels, but I still like the long tail on today's candle after the bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  3:55:08 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  3:50:48 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I'm not thrilled with the fade and I'm going to tighten up our stop to Dow 8299. I think another trip back below 8300 could land us further down than the last one.

Set stops on the long signal at Dow 8299

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  3:49:23 PM
This COMPX bounce keeled over at the ascending trendline of an expanding wedge or bullhorn formation on the 5 minute chart. I'd put support on this downleg at 1337, unless the lower trendline breaks.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  3:47:10 PM
Remember the 38.2% retracement level from the 7197 low on October 10th to the December 2nd high of 9043? I have it coming in at 8338; just below current levels. The close could be very close to this number.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/02,  3:45:01 PM
The A/D line has gone vertical as end of year portfolio rebalancing and window dressing is increasing. Big cap stocks like MMM are benefiting from cash stashing but MSFT and IBM appear to still be weak. That tech weakness is giving me additional cause for worry for the post holiday week. The lack of real volume is also a problem. I would be very cautious with long positions over the next week. If that A/D line starts to shrink then tomorrow could be a challenge as traders speculate on the post new years direction.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/30/02,  3:44:29 PM
Something to keep an eye on...The VIX.X (32.58 -1.57) is trading just above its 200-dma as the Dow moves to the best levels of the session. A glance at the daily chart shows that the index has maintained its multi-month trend of lower highs. In addition to this descending trend, there's some additional overhead resistance at 35.70, which is the 38% retracement from the November lows to October highs. A move above this level would be an indication that the broader market might be heading lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  3:42:00 PM
Last week, I mentioned that the S&P 400 Mid-Caps ($MID on stockcharts.com) and the S&P 600 Small Caps ($SML) were outperforming the $SPX 500 (big caps), having moved above their 50-ema's while the big caps dropped below that average. By the end of the week, they, too, had fallen below their 50-ema's and remain there today. If that end-of-year tendency for small caps to outperform large caps is going to kick in, it had better get going. Again, this isn't trading advice, and action around a MA is only one measure of relative performance. This comment harks back to my 13:12 post about traditional trading patterns. It's perhaps important to be alert to these potential patterns, but price action and not historical trends should guide your trading decisions. Perhaps it's more important to notice divergence from these patterns and think about why that divergence might be occurring.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/02,  3:36:41 PM
Another statistic that does not bode well for the economy is the highest foreclosure rate in 30 years and the automobile repo rate is up +30% this year. Used car values have fallen so low that most people with 2-3 yr old cars are under water. The rising unemployment makes those high car payments tough to handle. This ripple down affect devalues assets for everyone.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  3:31:45 PM
Not a good statistic: 186 public companies with $368 billion in assets filed for bankruptcy in 2002. That is the largest asset total ever, surpassing last year's record $259 billion figure.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  3:29:35 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Current levels: Dow 8362/SPX 882.04/OEX 446.50/COMP 1345

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  3:28:47 PM
The US Dollar Index has just printed 101.99.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  3:27:45 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I like the Dow's move over 8330 and 8350 intraday, as well as the SPX move back over 880 and the OEX over 445. However, if the SPX fails to hold the 880 level and the OEX fails at 445, conservative traders may want to exit the position and cut losses. the ADV/DEC ratio is still improving, but appears to have run out of steam.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  3:26:02 PM
I wonder if tech will be out of favor tomorrow as well? We do have a full day of trading, and December Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. Expectations are for a rise to 86 from 84.1. This index is under year ago levels, and has fallen significantly since August.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  3:20:49 PM
As a reader (Jeff, I believe?) reminded me to do a while ago, I've dialed out a bit this afternoon to look at retracement values for the move from the August highs to the October lows. (The levels I noted earlier today were for the rally off those October lows to the recent highs.) Since the August highs and recent highs were approximately the same on many of the indices, the retracement levels are almost the same, too. For example, the SPX 50% retracement of the move down to October lows was 866.82 versus a 50% retracement of the rally off those lows of 861.46. For the DOW and the OEX, the numbers were even closer. The COMPX, however, showed a bigger difference: 50% retracement of the August-October move is 1260, while a 61.8% retracement of that move occurs at 1295.90.

I love numbers. I love calculating them. Maybe some of you don't. It's always important to know about retracements, pivots, and other factors that might impact your trade, but you can discover most of them through a thorough study of the price action. For example, if you were studying this chart of the COMPX, you might notice that the 1260 area seemed pivotal in mid-October as it did in previous times. If you were drawing support/resistance lines on the chart, you might place one there. Link That 1260 level appeared pivotal in mid-October because prices gapped above that level, then down below it, then back up above it. Clearly it's important. As it turns out, that was the 50% retracement of the 23 August high of 1411.75 to the 10 October low of 1108.49. It's good to know why that level was important, especially when you're setting targets, but don't despair of using technical analysis if you're not good with numbers. By all means, write down the ones we calculate for you. Mark or annotate your own charts to indicate the support and resistance you find on a historical basis. It's amazing how often they correlate with each other! You've become a technical analyst without calculating a single number.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/30/02,  3:16:24 PM
ROOM $55.61 (+2.44) Looks like the most recent upward surge in the broad market was all the shorts needed to cover positions in ROOM, as the stock finally surged through the $55 level. There were plenty of opportunities to exit this put play for solid gains down in the $53-54 area, and any remaining trades should now be stopped out. Barring a huge selloff in the next 45 minutes, ROOM will migrate to the drop list tonight as a solid winner. With the PnF chart still bearish to the $44 level, we'll keep an eye on this one with an eye towards playing the downside again on a rally failure below the $60 resistance area.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  3:14:28 PM
I have a feeling the Dow will find resistance if the Nasdaq, currently down 5-points, hits the unchanged level. Just something to watch out for.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  3:09:44 PM
Looks like our subatomic upsloping trendline has held, and a buy program has levitated the COMPX back to almost flat on the day, down just 4 points now. The 3:00 put to call reading came in at .80, with no new revisions. The TRINQ is down to just above neutral at 1.25 on this surge of buying. We'll if they can hold it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  3:00:15 PM
Precious metals have moved off their lows, with HUI now down 4.21 on the day, still a big loss, with XAU -1.67.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  2:46:27 PM
Notes: Moody's downgraded 648 U.S. companies in 2002 - a record, surpassing the number of downgrades during 2001. Only 129 companies were upgraded, the lowest since 1991.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  2:39:36 PM
The put to call data I've been following was revised, and that .76 reading that I mentioned has now disappeared, replaced with a .82 reading instead. What's .06 between friends, I guess. In any event, the most recent reading is at .80. Not much significant movement in either direction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  2:32:54 PM
The intraday COMPX is resting on its ascending trendline off the lows, visible on the 5 minute chart. A break below 1334-5 would be a violation of this trendline, but note that the 5 minute is a "subatomic" chart- the shortest timeframe on which I bother to search for patterns.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  2:25:43 PM
With bonds returning 10 percent annual gains this year, it is much higher than the 5.3 percent average annual return since 1926 (according to Ibbotson Associates). This year $133 billion went into bond mutual funds. Note: Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, forecasts no more than 5 percent annual gains for bonds "over the next several years." Bonds did rise 8.4 percent in 2001 and 11.6 percent in 2000. U.S. stocks, in contrast, are down about 40 percent over those three years.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  2:25:43 PM
Talking about SUV's in the Monitor earlier today reminded me to take another look at GM, with the four-month rule in mind. The four-month rule relates GM's performance to that of the economic and goes like this: If GM fails to make a new low within four months of its previous low, the bearish trend of the broader markets will soon end or has already done so. If GM fails to make a new high within four months of a previous high, the bullish trend will soon end or has already done so. When I last looked at GM's chart a couple of weeks ago, I noted a 10 October low of 31.02 and a 2 December high of 41.40. If GM fails to move below 31.02 before 10 February, this rule suggests that the bearish trend in the broader markets will end or already has ended. If GM fails to move higher than 41.40 before 2 April, this rule suggests that the bullish trend in the broader markets (presumably, in this case, the move up from October lows) will end or already has ended.

Which will happen first? I know what recent government figures would predict, so that on a fundamental basis, it appears more likely that GM will reach new lows and the bearish trend will continue. Is this what charts show? Because we want to know what will happen several months out, I'm looking at a weekly chart. First, I checked accumulation/distribution and on-balance volume. Big money doesn't appear to be accumulating this stock. As I think was true the last time I looked, GM's weekly chart isn't giving many other clues. The 10-week MA has moved below the 30-week, which is bearish, but it's flattened and has stopped falling. That 10-week seems to be capping prices, which also appears bearish. The (5)(3) stochastic has flattened as has the RSI. MACD showed a lower low, but so did prices, so there was no divergence there to provide a hint of future movement. MACD has turned up, but the 30-week average still moves down. GM appears to be consolidating in a neutral triangle pattern, but since it entered that pattern while moving down, the most likely way it will exit is by breaking down. However, it's on a P&F buy signal. I guess we'll have to wait for technicals to change if we want to use this four-month rule to help us gauge market action. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  2:09:49 PM
After printing 3 consecutive readings at .81, the put to call ratio has just come in at .76. This little whiff of bullish speculation is too small to get excited about, but .81 was an awfully low top. If the majority of option trades have been in calls today, that shows a market asleep on its feet. The QQV is well off its highs as well, currently at 40.82. I love to see a surge higher to short, but so far, the weakness of the bounce has precluded it. The TRINQ remains in neutral bearish territory at 1.74.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  1:57:29 PM
The calculated pivot of 8346 has not yet been tested in the Dow, and it is interesting how bond yields continue to go LOWER as equity prices go HIGHER. This is not how the correlation should work. Moreover, 5-year notes are higher by 8 ticks and the 10-year is up by 8.5 ticks. This is a "steepening" of the yield curve and not bullish for stocks either. Clearly stocks could still find a bid, and it will be interesting to see if 8346 can be tested and used for support.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/30/02,  1:54:11 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $52.98 +0.03 has rebounded slightly after testing its 200-dma. While there's plenty of congestion in the $52.00 area, a violation of the moving average would not be a good sign for software bulls and the overall NASDAQ. Softee is already showing a double-bottom sell signal on the p-n-f chart.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  1:49:36 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We finally got the move over intraday resistance at 8328 in the Dow. If its going to build on a rally, that was the first step.

Current levels Dow 8331/SPX 878.49/OEX 444.91/ COMP 1339

The next level I'm watching is resistance in the OEX at 445.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  1:41:40 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  1:38:25 PM
February Crude Oil is lower by 1.83% at 32.12, coming under pressure after a senior delegate from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said OPEC will raise oil output quotas by at least 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) unless prices drop heavily in the next two weeks. OPEC, which controls two-thirds of world crude exports, said they would offset any supply shortfall due to the strike in Venezuela, the cartel's third biggest producer. OPEC in December raised output quotas by 1.3 million barrels a day to 23 million bpd.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/02,  1:37:54 PM
Looks like we need a break over 8330 for Steve to start breathing again. We may have to hook him up to an IV tube for nourishment soon. This white knuckle cling to 8300 is about to drive him crazy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  1:32:24 PM
Looks like that "sell in the morning, buy in the afternoon" pattern in precious metals isn't going to hold today. HUI is now off 5.29 and XAU 2.34 on the day. The daily chart of HUI looks like a loose ascending wedge, which is a bearish formation, but it looks early to call. The weekly chart looks much more bullish, and all this fits with my guess of a retest of gold's 330-35/oz support level.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/30/02,  1:28:31 PM
Tech Data Corp. (TECD) $25.97 -0.97: After moving sidways for more than two weeks, we're finally seeing a breakdown in this PremierInvestor short play. There is no apparent news to explain this decline...It simply looks like bulls are throwing in the towel after failing to push the stock above resistance in the $28.50 area. Shares are quickly approaching our profit-target at $25.11, which is roughly 15% from our entry at $29.49. At this point traders may want to consider placing their stops just above today's high of $27.00.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  1:23:47 PM
Swing Trade Signals
While we are hanging just above Dow 8300/SPX 875, we are not getting any follow through on the bounce. It is hard to draw conclusions from such low volume and today's bounce off Dow 8250 could be a short-term bottom, but as Jeff mentioned, the bounce is questionable with IBM ($76.20 -1.16)in new lower territory and MSFT ($52.64 (-0.33)also lower. I am encouraged to the long side with MMM showing a nice gain ($122.60 +1.26) and Wal-Mart back over $50 ($50.03 +0.87), however, Santa Claus appears to have left the building and I am beginning to lose faith in a rally.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  1:22:34 PM
Santa has left the building. We have an extremely weak sideways up phase on the COMPX, with the short oscillators growing overbought while the longer 60 minute 5(3) stoch is merely flatlining, the whole with no corresponding upswing in price. Not to sound like a broken record, but it leads me to expect downside ahead. Bond yields have caved in with FVX down 5.4 bps. Still nothing big, but these are near lows of the day. The bond market is telling us that equities aren't looking too hot here. The p/c ratio is at .81- high, but not in a range to lead us to expect an equities bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  1:12:37 PM
The Santa Claus rally didn’t work as expected, so what about other traditional patterns? Here’s a sampling of traditional trading patterns that apply to this time of year: The first-five-days-of-January rule purports that if the market rises those first five trading days in January, it’s likely to rise all month, and that if it ends January positive, it’s likely to end the year positive, too. (The opposite trend is also true, unfortunately.) Also of interest this time of year, seasonality charts show January to be the strongest month of the year. In addition, at the turn of the year, small caps tend to outperform large caps.

Obviously, this isn’t trading advice. Often, the more known these “rules” become, the less reliable their forecast become. Still, it’s sometimes helpful to know about traditional trends.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  12:59:26 PM
Ouch! IBM giving up the $76 level intra-day and looks to challenge session low. If $75.60 taken out here, Dow, SPX, OEX are done for the day is my thinking.

Per IBM "pivot" analysis post 11:54:44, S1=$76.25 never could see a 5-minute bar close in last 55-minutes and served more as resistance in last hour. This has downside support at S2=$75.15 being assessed by traders.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  12:54:09 PM
When a market is range bound, it is important to realize that is 'feels' bullish near the session's high (as well as feeling bearish as a new lows is barely realized). Looking at stochastics on a five-minute chart in the Dow, the oscillator is above 80 and does give the indication of a range bound market. MACD on a shorter-term chart is high as well, but has not crossed lower and confirmed such suspicion. Key level above should be 8346.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  12:49:35 PM
Regarding my 12:04 observation about SUV sales since the 25th, Bob, a reader, offers this comment: Read that as big tax credit for small business purchases....completed by the end of the tax year. Read an article the other day related to energy consumption and . . . [t]he gist was that for a small business a big chunk of the cost of an SUV was a gift from Uncle Sam.

I do remember seeing something similar on a news program last week. However, a relative who lives in Houston and works for an upscale apartment management company, with rentals higher than average for Houston properties, also reports a pickup in activity since the 25th. This may be normal seasonal activity, however, as I imagine most would wait until after the holidays to move or relocate employees.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/30/02,  12:47:53 PM
LEN $51.10 (-1.30) Hey LEAPS traders! This current Put play is working in our favor again, after last week's brief scare. Investors don't seem to be nearly as enthusiastic about the reports coming out about housing, and apparently concerns about a real housing slowdown are starting to have their effect. At this point, I really think things could go either way in the near term. The PnF chart was bearish and pointing to significantly lower price levels ahead, but last week's print at $54 turns things bullish. So here's the question that needs to be answered. Was the early December trade at $49 (quad-bottom Sell) a bear trap? Or was last week's trade at $54 (triple-top Buy) a bull trap? One of those questions will be able to be answered in the future with a YES, but right now I can't tell you which. My personal bias is that last week's trade at $54 was a bull trap, but we need to see that proven by price action trading back under the early December lows.

As I mentioned over the weekend, conservative traders may want to consider harvesting partial gains on open positions on another rebound from the $49-50 area and look to re-enter at a higher level if LEN rolls over yet again. We'll operate in 'show me' mode, keeping the play active with a stop at the $54 level until we're stopped out on a closing basis or we get that confirming breakdown.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  12:37:55 PM
Just before breaking above 876, the SPX traced a classic rectangular pattern on the one-minute charts. There's not much predictive power in a one-minute chart formation (with a one-point range, the upside breakout predicts a movement up to 877 only), but it did show the near-term (very near-term) importance of the 876 level. Bullish traders would want that level to hold as support now.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/30/02,  12:35:43 PM
Market weakness is starting to really weigh on the Biotechnology sector (BTK.X), and the BBH (current LEAPS Put play) is testing the bottom of its 10-week range. Not only that, but today's action has the BBH breaking below the ascending trendline that began in early July. With volume actually on the rise over the past couple days, it looks like this latest rollover from the $90 level may be the one that pays off for patient LEAPS traders.

TRMS $$42.29 (-2.35) Given the bearish action in the BTK index, it comes as little surprise that OI Call play is having a hard time again today. Over the weekend, we pointed out possible support at the converging 10-dma ($42.70), 20-dma ($42.78) and historical support near $42.60. A look at today's price action shows that the stock broke down through all of those levels and is currently moving to new lows for the day. This action does not look encouraging for the future of this play, and right now I wouldn't want to try new longs unless the stock can reverse course and push decisively back over the $44 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  12:29:33 PM
Precious metals are getting slammed today, with gold trading below 345, while HUI is now -3.48 and XAU -1.63. I see that and hear Gollum hissing "My preciousss." A pullback is to be expected, however, given the ballistic run that gold has shown us. The test will come at the 330-335/oz level. The area formerly known as resistance should now become support.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  12:20:18 PM
The Dow has made a series of lower lows during today's session, and might be in the process of a lower high as I type. 8328 (high during first five minutes) could be solid resistance if the Dow rallies, and bulls would like nothing more than for that level to turn into support. I am surprised the Dow is higher by 0.33% while the Sox and Compx continues to underperform. A possible allocation out of tech as 2003 comes into view. Note: Bullish Percent is certainly more at risk of falling within the NDX than the Dow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  12:19:35 PM
The COMPX is showing us a bullish descending wedge on the daily candles. Depending on how you draw the trendlines, it could also be a bull flag. These patterns are not 100% accurate, and if I was at the office I could quote the exact odds from my copy of Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, but in any event, the message is the same. Traders with bearish positions on should be watching their stops and being careful here.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   12/30/02,  12:13:22 PM
Covered-Call Calculations
A reader just asked why the covered-call calculator includes three commissions (two stock and one option) when computing the cost basis and potential yields. A covered-call play, which involves the buying of stock and the selling of a call, involves two commissions (one stock and one option) initially. However, once a covered-call is exercised (or the stock sold after expiration), an additional stock commission is realized. Therefore, the extra stock commission was added to calculate the break-even price where no money is lost, even to commissions, and assumes the stock will be sold. Using an In-The-Money (ITM) strategy, this is a foregone conclusion in a successful position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  12:11:56 PM
Relative Strength .... here's a snapshot of IBM Relative Strength Chart versus the SPX. Now... this is Intra-day entries right now. At the end of the day the RS chart will actually be charted for final entry. Here's the 1-point box that we looked at this weekend in the "Ask the Analyst" column. Bears are getting close, but not quite there yet. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  12:11:37 PM
We're seeing very little strength in this bounce- more like a pause in the action across the indices and indicators. Most of the longer intraday, daily and weekly 5(3) stochastics are oversold, while the monthly is putting in a bearish cross.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  12:06:23 PM
Per Seckinger's 11:58:42 Laughing.... That's probably why I don't mention your name that much in the market monitor John.

Just kidding of course folks.

When John first showed me this "pivot" stuff, I was skeptical. I'm ALWAYS skeptical of something "new" to me. I suggest EVERY trader/investor veiw something new or unfamilliar to them with skepticism. Test it out FIRST, backtest it. MAKE it prove itself to you with some degree of "accuracy."

I went back and TESTED the pivot stuff by taking a prior session's range, and writing down the levels. Then I looked at the next day's trading on 5 or 10 minute bars to see if the MARKET was trading anything similar. Wasn't always 100%, but did seem to help with shorter-term type of trading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  12:04:33 PM
More Anecdotal Information: A family acquaintance sells new SUV's. They're seeing a surge in activity since the 25th. (Maybe someone was doling out cash for presents?) This is in Houston, where the PLI (Parking Lot Indicator) showed stronger holiday retail sales than some were noting in other parts of the country, so perhaps this is just a regional pattern.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  12:02:37 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Back in the 8300 area in the Dow, but I'm concerned about this level now act as resistance. We'll need a move over 8330 before I believe in the bounce. The fact that we found some support just 10 points over my stop loss encourages me to stick with that stop, but traders who'd like to bail out on the long play here will not get an argument from me. Other resistance levels to watch are NDX 1000/SPX 878/OEX 445/ COMP 1351

Current levels Dow 8302/SPX 874.25/OEX 442.77/COMP 1334.49

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  11:58:42 AM
Jeff, nothing makes me happier than to see you mentioning my name along with ideas for profitable trading. Note: 50% of today's range now comes in at 8290 (lower since we got a lower low). I will be looking to see if market makers use this area as either support or resistance in the near term.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  11:54:44 AM
IBM intra-day Pivot analysis IBM trading $76.10 here, with session high of $77.43 and low of $75.60.

s2=75.15 s1=76.25, P= $77.72 r1=78.82 r2=80.29.

Right now, I get the feeling that the $5 billion deal was sold into at today's "pivot" of $77.72 as session did spike near $77.43.

So why is IBM hanging a bit tough here at $76.10. That's where Linda's 11:18:16 comments come into play. Broader retracement on IBM from lows of 54.01 to highs of 89.46 have 38.2% retracement at $75.91, which is right in here.

So.... This has 19.1% at $82.68 (doesn't jive with intra-day resistance levels), and 50% at $71.73, (doesn't jive with intra-day support levels). Only thing that kind of "jives" today is the broader 38.2% retracement of $75.91 and today's S1= $76.25. I'm thinking "good thing for bulls" that IBM announced $5 billion contract today, otherwise IBM trades $75.15.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  11:53:37 AM
Interesting correpondence: When I studied physics way back when, I felt more comfortable with results of my computations when similar results were predicted using a different formula, calculated by a different method. In his weekend Market Wrap, Leigh used a bear flag pattern on the daily chart to calculate a possible target for the COMPX between 1320-1330. Here's his article: Link That correlates with the target predicted by the confirmation of the double-top pattern formed in the hourly charts. Seems like magic, doesn't it?

The COMPX's low today was 1329.64. Is that close enough? Perhaps. These targets are often minimal targets, with more downside (or upside, as the case might be) possible, but I'm also aware of the possibility for a bounce at any time.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  11:52:08 AM
Great comments from Linda regarding intra-day levels and retracement levels from broader time periods. "LOOK FOR CORRELATIVE" levels is my thought and how the intra-day and broader-time horizon retracements work together. Helps the trader get a "feel" for how things are trading.

At some point, we get "short-term" oversold and will start getting some upside action. I think we "know" this to be true. When this takes place, the shorter-term intra-day levels will be of help. The past couple of trading sessions, the indexes have not traded much above their daily "pivots" but have taken out their intraday supports or at least tested them.

Take some notes in your trader's logbook (simple notebook). On Friday, we saw S1 and S2 taken out on Dow. Today, S1 taken out on Dow and Pivot not challenged.

For those traders that have been e-mailing with John Seckinger and his "pivot spreadsheet", try plugging in some "key stocks" into that model. Look how nicely IBM trades with similar pivot analysis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  11:44:53 AM
E-mailed Updates Ugh!.... It's not my day for sending the e-mail updates out. You're going to get "two" 11:00 Updates. One it titled "09:00 Pre-market" and another "11:00 Pre-market". Let's hope there's no such things as 11:00 PRE-MARKET.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  11:43:49 AM
The QQV has actually dropped on this little bounce/pause off the lows, now just 40.91. Complacency continues to rule the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  11:41:26 AM
KO: Trading a low of 42.90, KO did give a descending triple bottom breakdown signal this morning. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  11:39:08 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  11:38:50 AM
The put to call ratio has made it up to .78, which is still low but getting high enough to perhaps slow the descent in the indices. Yields have extended their losses but still not down by much on the day, while the TRINQ at 1.88 is not indicated an oversold COMPX yet. Precious metals are down further, HUI -2.67. While the put to call ratio is moving up and yields have yet to collapse, the relative "mellowness" of the indicators is either portending a bounce or letting us know that the market hasn't yet begun to really sell off. The put to call ratio seems to work well intraday for picking extremes- you can follow it at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  11:37:23 AM
Simple vs. Exponential: Although I usually prefer to use exponential moving averages on longer-term moving averages, I often experiment to see which type of moving average most closely tracks the price movement in an equity or index I'm watching. In the linked chart of Valero Energy (VLO), I've included both the simple and exponential 200-dma's. The simple 200-dma (red line) seems more pivotal at this point. Try this with the equities or indices you might be watching. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  11:34:55 AM
Looking at bonds, the 30-year is higher in price at 113 (cash yield of 4.78%), while shorter-term maturities are showing better bids and signaling a flight to quality away from equities. Rising Crude oil and a weaker dollar is usually a recipe for higher bond prices and lower stocks. One sector to watch should be semiconductors, since the Sox is now under 295 at 290 and near its lows of 288.63.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   12/30/02,  11:34:36 AM
BMRN adjustment example
Biomarin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BMRN), an early exit candidate in the covered-call portfolio (long stock and short JAN-$7.50 calls, cost basis $6.69), could be rolled-down to an APR-$5 call. Buy back the JAN-$7.50 calls ($0.30 x $0.45) and sell the APR-$5.00 calls ($2.25 x 2.65) for a new cost basis in the issue around ($6.69 + $0.40 - $2.35 =) $4.74. Essentially, a trader would do this to salvage a losing position (down over $0.60 on an immediate exit) into a "potential" break-even exit in April. Rolling-down to the JUL-$5.00 calls offers a "potential" profit by the July expiration. Just depends on your long-term outlook and risk-reward tolerance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  11:27:53 AM
Volume patterns at mid-morning echo the bearishness in the markets. Adv/dec numbers (calculated by the ratio method) are at .75 for NYSE issues and .41 for Nasdaq issues. New lows have now pulled even with new highs. On the NYSE, down volume is twice up volume, and it's five times up volume on the Nasdaq. So far, these numbers seem sustainable, but we're approaching key levels in the indices (aren't we always, though), so be watchful if in short-term bearish trades.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  11:23:34 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Current levels: Dow 8259/SPX 870.93/OEX 440.97/COMP 1330.15

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  11:20:13 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are approaching the stop loss on the long signal at Dow 8240. We got a small bounce at 8250, but it certainly appears as though a larger, momentum bounce from this level is not materializing.

Set stops at Dow 8240 to exit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  11:18:16 AM
A reminder of retracement levels to consider, in addition to the pivots mentioned in today's Monitor: Dow 50% Fibonacci retracement is 8120.43, COMPX 50% 1315.04, OEX 50% 437.87, SPX 50% 861.46, and NDX 50% is 975.47. If you're in bearish trades, be alert to levels from which bounces might be expected. For example, in addition to the 50% retracement level listed above, bearish traders in DOW stocks might note that the psychologically important 8200 level has shown slight support during the last six months.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  11:11:15 AM
Telephone Data Systems (TDS) $46.40 -2.4% ... was previously profiled bearish here in MM a couple of weeks ago. Nice break lower today from $49 profile today and looks to be leader in telecom to downside. WEAKNESS leads and this one's been weak. Link

Disclosure... I currently hold bearish position in TDS

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  11:07:30 AM
The markets seem mixed up to me, particularly given the breakdown in the COMPX, weakness in the USD, but the relative strength in bonds, which are merely flat to slightly up- not nearly as much as one would think watching equities trade. I suspect that we're seeing Al Green's morning repo find its way into treasuries.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  11:06:25 AM
Quick check of Intra-day levels per 10:05:19 post show "pivots" all serving resistance, with S1's broken earlier. This is bearish intr-day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  10:59:14 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 290 -2% .... How's that for "relative strength" after some seemingly "good news" today. Defensive aren't they? Semiconductor HOLDRS (AMEX:SMH) $22.43 -2.43% nearing the $22 level Link (see this weekend's Ask the Analyst). Quick check of Intel (INTC) $16.10 -1.8% also defensive. It looks like SMH, but a little weakner technically. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  10:56:29 AM
Note: 8294 is fifty percent of today's range in the Dow. Could be used by market makers going forward. Just something to watch out for. It was also interesting how the high during the first five minutes became resistance. The range for that time period appears to almost always play a role as the session progresses. I would have expected more resistance at the period low (8301), but that was not seen since the first few minutes of trading.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  10:56:28 AM
Good Morning Steven: BEAS 11.57 - .28 (-2.27%) OIN call play for weeks, although stock has been in a continious downslide although still holding above the trend and do you still see support at 11.50, or should play be exited to look for another. Thank you for comments on MM

BEA Systems (BEAS) $11.53 (-0.31) OI call play BEAS, added last weekend (Dec 21-22), has slowly drifted back after breaking through the $12 barrier. Friday's intraday chart shows the stock finding ressitance at $12 after ticking down through that level. I would wait to initiate anything new from the long side until the stock breaks back over $12 and finds support there. The stock is currently finding some support at $11.50, but if it breaks through that level and finds resistance on a bounce attempt, then we will have another lower level of resistance and I would consider looking elsewhere.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  10:54:33 AM
The TRINQ has spiked to 1.9, in bear territory, nowhere near extreme. The QQV is holding its gains, +2.29 on the day. Yields have flipped to red, with FVX down 1.1 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  10:51:19 AM
North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) 449.96 -1.3% ... getting downside alert here at 450, which I set to alert to weakness. Key level of near-term support being tested here Link . Look for trade at 445 to see a pickup in selling for networking stocks as depicted by the Networking Index (NWX.X) Link

Could correlate XTC.X trade at 445 with NWX spread-triple-bottom sell signal at 128. Again... "key" sector supports tested here. With the major market indexes breaking down last week on technical basis, watch both of these sectors for good short/put potential.

Per this weekend's "Ask the Analyst" column, quick check of RS chart has NWX.X looking weaker versus SPX than does the XTC.X. So NWX and perhaps equipment stocks better short/put candidates in here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  10:45:11 AM
Existing Home Sales fell 3.5% to an annual rate of 5.56 million, which was below consensus of 5.7 million.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  10:42:08 AM
Swing Trade Signals
That Dow 8328 level appears as though it will be pivotal. It is the point at which we bounced last Thursday and has so far capped both rally attempts this morning. Current levels: Dow 8293/OEX 442.84/SPX 874.53/COMP 1343

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  10:41:24 AM
Chicago PMI fell to 51.3% in December, which was weaker than the consensus of 53%. Reading above 50 are considered growth, while readings below 50 are contraction. As such.... modest growth here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  10:38:51 AM
The put to call ratio has edged up to .65. Still very lopsided to the bull side given the failure at support this morning.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  10:31:58 AM
Checking the Intermarket Relationships: The XAU (and HUI) Index is lower, while the Dollar trades negatively as well. Bonds are mixed, as the 30-year is down 2 ticks as shorter-term contracts are higher in price. The Oil Index is higher by 1.41%, while the Utilities Index (UTY) is higher by 0.3% at 256. So, what does this all mean? There isn't a nice correlation between gold and the dollar, while bonds are not giving a solid sign as well. The UTY index is under 260, and the rise in the Oil Index (XOI) doesn't even retrace Friday's loss. Therefore, there is a chance institutions use either today's close for direction, or simply wait until the markets trade in sync once again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  10:31:07 AM
IBM (IBM) $77.06 -0.42% Link ... off its worst levels of $75.60 after Bloomberg report saying that IBM has won a $5 billion computer services contract with J.P Morgan, and beating out rival Electronic Data Systems (EDS) $17.41 -3.27% Link.

Hmmm.... may want to set alert on EDS at $16. That would be a "bullish signal" reversed pattern.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  10:26:52 AM
Looking at the COMPX 1 minute chart, we see the area formerly known as support that just resisted the reaction higher off the lows, as price was turned back from 1351. Yields re barely in the green, while the TRINQ is back in bullish territory at .61. If the bids don't show up soon, I believe Linda's 1326 level could easily become a reality.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  10:22:46 AM
Back on the 18th, I'd noted in the Monitor that the COMPX had confirmed a double-top pattern on the 60-minute chart when it fell through the 1367 level (with the two tops at 1411 and 1408). The confirmation of that double-top pattern projected a conservative downward target of 1326, using the lowest of the two tops and a 1367 confirmation level. (1408-1367 = 41. Subtract 41 from 1367 = 1326.) That target didn't seem likely at the time, but I'm still watching to see how it plays out. As I mentioned then, targets projected by intraday formations would not be as reliable as those projected by formations on daily or weekly charts, but this hourly pattern did require several days to form, and so might be expected to be a bit more reliable than a pattern formed on a five-minute chart.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/30/02,  10:15:53 AM
ROOM $54.04 (+0.88) Bouncing right on cue. Remember our comments over the weekend that ROOM could be due for a bounce? Well, that appears to be under way this morning, with the stock now back over the $54 level. There doesn't appear to be a lot of conviction, as volume remains light here at the end of the year. Should the bulls fail to get a meaningful rally going, ROOM could yet provide another bearish entry point on a rally failure below our $55 stop. But if ROOM does move back over that level, then it will clearly be time to let this one go and look for another winner.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/30/02,  10:11:37 AM
RKY $60.62 (+0.58) Several questions regarding this OI Put play last week, due to the stock's inability to break down below the $60 level. Actually, Friday's trading saw a brief dip below that level but no follow through. While it is encouraging to see the consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, RKY's days are numbered if it can't break that $60 support level. Over the past 8 market days, the stock has traded in less than a $2 range. With another day off on Wednesday, option traders definitely need to be thinking about time decay, especially if using January options. At this point, I'd want to see a decisive (read:volume) breakdown under the $60 level before entering new positions. And for traders that are nervous about positions in this play, I would look to game an exit on the next bounce from the vicinity of $60.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  10:08:44 AM
The opening put to call reading was .60- bad news for the bulls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  10:08:23 AM
In earliest trading this morning, new highs outnumbered new lows on both NYSE and Nasdaq-traded stocks. Up volume was higher than down volume on both, too. However, although the adv/dec figure (ratio method) show more advancing issues on the NYSE, at 1.35, the opposite was true with Nasdaq issues, with a figure of .72. As always, I caution that volume patterns can be distorted in earliest trading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  10:08:14 AM
The COMPX has broken to new lows, precious metals are trying to reverse their losses, and the TRINQ broke above 1.00 for a few minutes. How quickly things change. The COMPX is bouncing at the lows as I type and the TRINQ has fallen to .93. Still no direction either way. Just for old times' sake I checked out CNNfn, the headline of which reads "Stocks March Higher". I'd love some of what they're smoking over there- their own chart shows the indices down on the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  10:05:19 AM
Intra-day Support/Resistance Levels from Pivot analysis Dow Indu: S1= 8,242 S2=8,181.84 P=8346.11 R1=8407 R2=8,510

SPX: S2=863 S1= 869 P=879.8 R1=886 R2=896.67

OEX: S2=436.2 S1= 439.6 P=445.4 R1=448.83 R2=454.61

NDX: S2=981.9 S1= 989.9 P= 1,004 R1=1,011.97 R2=1,026.10

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  10:02:10 AM
At 43.40, KO is currently trading below the 43.43 low set in July of this year. That was an intraday low when KO opened at that level, but it bounced above 45 that day. The 52-week low is 43.23, but the major support for the last six years has been between 43.50-45. It's now on a sell signal, and below 43, KO gives another sell signal. I noticed a suggestion in this weekend's newsletter that traders might put this on a watch list for a move below 43. Disclosure: I have a bearish position on KO.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  10:01:38 AM
The fed has just announced a 2B overnight repo. With no expiries today, this 2B is a net addition and can find its way into bonds or equities. My bet is bonds, as we've been seen of late.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  10:01:02 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We took out Friday's low in the Dow and all sectors are lower on the day. The OEX and SPX are hanging just above Friday's lows.

Current levels Dow 8281/SPX 874.59/OEX 442.69/COMP 1346

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  9:59:07 AM
The NQ03H contract has a pivot of 1008 for Monday, yet the intra-day high was only 1006. Definitely a sign of strength from market makers. As the Dow falls under 8300, one stock coming under pressure (again) is IBM, lower by 1.46% to 76.21. There should be support below at 75.15. For support in the NQ, please see Futures wrap.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  9:51:06 AM
The recommended early close tomorrow for the bond market is 2:00 pm ET. The bond market will also be closed New Years Day.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  9:49:44 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The major averages ticked into the red, though just barely. That opening bounce failed and we quickly took out the opening range to the downside. As I type, we are back into the green in a couple sectors, but I wouldn't be adding to a long position here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  9:45:29 AM
Remember when planning your trades this week that the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges will be closed for New Years. They will not be closed tomorrow, nor will they close early.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  9:43:01 AM
Despite the weakness in the USD, the precious metals indices are getting sold so far, with HUI -2.18 and XAU -1.27, with gold -1.20. We've seen the lows of the day put in near the open during the past week, and we'll watch to see if the pattern holds true today.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  9:42:43 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are not getting much follow through this morning and that has me concerned about the strength of any bounce from this level. I'll leave the stop loss of Dow 8240 in place for the time being, but an alternative for more conservative traders may be Dow 8275, which would be below Friday's low and look bearish after a failed bounce.

Current levels: Dow 8314/OEX 444/SPX 877/COMP 1350

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  9:38:55 AM
During the first five-minutes of trading, the Dow showed a relatively tight range from 8301 to 8328 and ended up near the top of a Bollinger Band on a five minute chart. I am showing a pivot of 8346 for the Dow today. The 30-year is lower by 5 ticks to 112'22, but still above good support at 112'16. A move under 112'16 should help stocks. The Sox remained above 295, another neutral sign. Under 295, selling should materialize, while above 310 look for buyers to get involved.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  9:36:48 AM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 88.41 -0.4% ... slight weakness at the open after Merrill Lynch's morning call to lower sector weighting to "equal-weight" from "overweight" since earnings growth is turning negative on a relative basis, price momentum is weakening, and valuation continues to be expensive.

On the heels of this morning's SIA reports (see 09:00 Intra-day Update) Link Merrill upgrades the Wireless sector to "overweight" from "equal-weight" since earnings growth is turning positive. The Wireless Telecom Index (YLS.X) 51.26 -0.31% down fractionally here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  9:31:38 AM
Flat open on the COMPX at 1349, QQV +2.62 to 41.88, TRINQ .41.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  9:29:59 AM
The US Dollar Index has just been sold to new multiyear lows, just below 102.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/30/02,  9:27:36 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  9:25:16 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX): 296.49 Global chip sales rose 1.3% in November and showed a 19.6% gain year over year for the month. Wireless once again led the group. While this certainly seems bullish for the sector, we have seen similar increases met with selling. Keep an eye on the 310 resistance level in the SOX to measure sentiment in the sector.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  9:19:56 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currently long the broader markets with a stop at Dow 8240. We are getting a bit of a bounce this morning, after trading as low as Dow 8285/SPX 873 on Friday. The bounce is not terribly strong, however, and if we violate the stop loss, I would consider finding a point not too far below to flip sides and go short. We are right at levels (Dow 8200-8300) that have provided some strong support going back to October. If those levels fail, then we could see a re-test much further down. However, if we are going to get a bounce and a bullish move here at the end of the year, it should come from this level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/30/02,  8:50:58 AM
Futures have been climbing slowly all morning, with NDX currently 1005 and SPX 876.50. The US Dollar Index has failed to recover so far, hanging onto 102.45 while gold hovers around 348/oz. Yields are lightly up with FVX +1.7 bps and TNX and TYX +2 bps each. QQQ is trading up a dime to 24.92.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/30/02,  7:58:39 AM
Amid worries over North Korea's actions, South Korea's stock market plunged today. The Nikkei also fell 1.55%, closing at 8578.95. In Europe, two-year highs in oil prices sent BP, Royal Dutch Petroleum, and Eni SpA higher in today's trading. With trading volume light, the FTSE 100 rose 1.34%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.12%, and the DAX rose 1.55%. The DAX closes at 2:00 pm Frankfurt time.

In other news, an suspected Islamic terrorist killed three doctors and wounded a pharmacist in an attack on a missionary hospital in Yemen.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/29/02,  1:32:40 AM
Are you going to lose the Market Monitor?

If you have not signed up for the 2003 renewal special you are in danger of losing access to the market monitor beginning on Jan-6th. We think the information on the monitor is critical to any active trader. Beginning on Jan-6th we are going to be charging 75 cents a day extra on an annual basis for access to the monitor. If you have not already signed up for the 2003 renewal special you need to do so quickly before it expires.

Are the intraday thoughts of Jeff, Steve, Jonathan, Linda, Mike, Mark Phillips, Mark Wnetrzak, Kent, Ray, John and myself worth 75 cents a day? That is for you to decide.

Signing up for the annual rate for the newsletter and the monitor will also get you (2) option expiration mouse pads, (7) books on trading, (2) videos of Jeff, Buzz and myself. These are worth the extra 75 cents alone and they are free to Market Monitor subscribers.

Lock in the cheapest rate possible with a ton of freebies now! Click here: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/29/02,  1:32:28 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/29/02,  1:32:08 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/29/02,  1:31:44 AM
Friday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

 
 

Market Monitor Archives