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  Jim Brown   1/1/03,  3:54:51 PM
Futures on the Market Monitor We have just about completed the changes to the new Market Monitor and we will be starting to test the Futures page next week. Our plans are to go live with futures trades on the E-Mini on the following Monday Jan-13th. We are going to be offering two types of trades. Position trades and scalps. It is entirely up to the reader which style they participate in. Each will be clearly defined. We suggest you paper trade them for a week or two until you convince yourself which is most profitable.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  10:44:39 PM
Should old acquantance be forgot.... I think it's interesting to look back as observe old "thoughts and observations."

December 21, 2001 Link

My last entry on 12/28/01 03:00 PM EST. Link Oh why didn't I buy some LEAPS puts on BRCM at $42? Citigroup never saw much above $52.

Happy New Year!

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/31/02,  10:00:08 PM
Are you going to lose the Market Monitor?

If you have not signed up for the 2003 renewal special you are in danger of losing access to the market monitor beginning on Jan-6th. We think the information on the monitor is critical to any active trader. Beginning on Jan-6th we are going to be charging 75 cents a day extra on an annual basis for access to the monitor. If you have not already signed up for the 2003 renewal special you need to do so quickly before it expires.

Are the intraday thoughts of Jeff, Steve, Jonathan, Linda, Mike, Mark Phillips, Mark Wnetrzak, Kent, Ray, John and myself worth 75 cents a day? That is for you to decide.

Signing up for the annual rate for the newsletter and the monitor will also get you (2) option expiration mouse pads, (7) books on trading, (2) videos of Jeff, Buzz and myself. These are worth the extra 75 cents alone and they are free to Market Monitor subscribers.

Lock in the cheapest rate possible with a ton of freebies now! Click here: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  9:54:51 PM
Pivots/Levels Today's action saw the indexes trade their 1st levels of support, but then firm and rally back near or just above their daily pivots. This marks the 2nd consecutive session, where the 1st level of intra-day 1st support was traded, but not the second level of support.

Thursday's S2, S1, P, R1, R2 are as follows.

Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,341.63 +0.1% ... S2=8,197, S1=8,270, P=8315, R1=8,388, R2= 8,434

SPX 879.82 +0.04% ... S2= 865, S1=872, P=877, R1=885, R2=890

OEX 444.75 (UNCH) ... S2= 437, S1= 441, P=443, R1=447, R2=450

NDX 984.36 -0.55% ... S2=969, S1=977, P=985, R1= 993, R2=1,002

QQQ $24.37 -1.05% ... S2=24.02, S1=24.19, P= 24.45, R1=24.62, R2=24.88

John Seckinger will post these again Thursday morning in the market monitor.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  4:00:58 PM
I'm showing my age and my long-term marital status, I guess, by advising you to have fun tomorrow in my earlier post. For those of you younger than I am, have fun tonight rather than tomorrow. Tomorrow, I'll be out on the dirt trails on my mountain bike, though, while you younger ones are recovering from your fun tonight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  3:55:50 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  3:52:05 PM
Thinking outloud: Dow still under mid-point of Bollinger Bands on weekly basis, bonds still showing technical strength (despite some weakness today), dollar under pressure (geopolitcal and economic risk), Sox under 295, and Gold still remains in an uptrend. Moreover, the Dow never made it to 8380 to test Resistance 1 today. For intermediate term traders, Dow under 8525 continues to show a bearish slant. With that said, least resistance is lower until the Dow makes some technical progress. Guessing when the lower lows and lower highs end is very hard to do.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  3:49:35 PM
Have a fun and safe New Year, everyone! All my best wishes for 2003.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  3:48:47 PM
Before the end of the day rush, I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year. Have fun tomorrow, but perhaps mark a time this weekend for studying your trading journals from this year. What worked? What didn't? Were your best trades during high-volume periods and your worst during low-volume periods? Were your best or worst trades on a particular day of the week? (Hey, it can happen. My worst trades are on Fridays.) Do you do better when you daytrade or when you stay in trades for several days or weeks? Are you better at trading indices or individual equities? Do you tend to do better when involved in only one or two trades at a time? Asking yourself these kinds of questions can improve your trading performance next year.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/31/02,  3:44:24 PM
Win $2003 in 2003 ! We are going to close the year with a Guess the Dow for 2003 contest. We are going to give away $2003 in cash to the top 3 guessers. Place your guess now. You can change it as much as you want until the entries close on Sunday. Click here: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  3:38:54 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The rally continues to fade after another brief bounce, with the SPX falling back below 880 and the OEX back below 444. Current levels Dow 8323/SPX 877.87/OEX 443.53/COMP 1334. I would not be shocked by a Jan 1 bounce, but the first week of January has ended in the red the last couple of years, so I won't panic if we do get that initial bump.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  3:37:48 PM
Taking a look back at the day: Did retracement levels factor into today's lows? On the OEX, today's low was 439.57, while the 50% retracement level of the October rally was 437.87. On the SPX, the low was 869.45. The 50% retracement of the October rally was way below, at 861.46, but the 50% retracement of the August to October decline was 866.82. On the COMPX, today's low of 1327.19 was close to the approximate 1326 target predicted by last week's confirmation of a double-top pattern on the hourly chart and by Leigh's target from a breakdown out of a bear flag pattern on the daily chart.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/31/02,  3:36:39 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Jeff and I are having to restrain Steve to prevent him for closing the current SHORT signal for a gain. He wants to close the year with any win so bad we may have to drug him until the close. I think I will unplug his network cable. (big holiday grin)

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  3:36:06 PM
Concerning Retail Sales for 2003, UBS Warburg is expecting weak sales at large discounters and department stores through the summer of 2003. However, for all of 2003, earnings from discounters and department stores is expected to outperform the S&P 500 by roughly 7 percent with most of the improvement coming in the second half.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/31/02,  3:33:42 PM
Holiday schedule - There will be no new plays added tonight but Jeff, Steve, John and I will all do our daily market commentary but on an abbreviated basis. Thursday will be a regular day and we will resume our full publication schedule.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  3:30:35 PM
Heading into the new year, traders will certainly pay attention to the dollar and the 100 level. Currently at 101.84, the weekly bullish divergence is not exactly working this week as predicted. The week is still not over, but I expected a move to 104.25 before the week ended. However, with China favoring the Euro over the Dollar in recent weeks, continue pressure on the dollar might continue and help Gold's recent rise. Note: XAU Index up fractionally.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  3:30:25 PM
It was fun listening to Bob Pisani try to note politely that there's been no end of year jam or tape painting, as we might otherwise have expected. Indeed, the indices are currently flat to negative, and the only tape painting would have been in gold (not!) which went out near its year high. The COMPX is seeing some selling right now, with the TICK.NQ at -527 and the TRINQ climbing to the still-neutral 1.21. QQV is gaining a bit, having found support at 40. A higher low in the NDX volatility index isn't bullish for the QQQ either.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/31/02,  3:18:06 PM
RKY $61.45 (+0.45) Thowing in the towel. We've been watching and waiting for RKY to break down, but even with the broad market weakness this morning, the stock couldn't take out that $60 support level. Each test of that level should weaken it a bit more for that breakdown, but time is money, especially with options. With RKY stuck in a $2 range for over 2 weeks now, I think we've given the play more than enough time to prove itself. If anything, RKY looks like it is going to try for an upside move -- not the outcome we're looking for. We're dropping the play tonight, ahead of the holiday. Any traders still holding open positions can look to exit this afternoon, avoiding any additional time decay.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  3:00:01 PM
I agree with Jeff's 14:37 comments about TYC. As I recently mentioned to a reader, that stock scares me. Since I answered a question about TYC earlier today--thanks, Rick, for the question--I thought I'd also weigh in with these cautionary comments. There was bearish divergence on the MACD from the September MACD and price high to the early December MACD and price high (equal prices, lower high on MACD). That divergence is minimal and perhaps won't portend any bearish activity in the stock, especially since the MACD is trying to turn back up. However, it's there for now. There has not yet been a bullish 10-week/30-week crossover and indeed these averages are perhaps flattening now without first crossing. The 30-week MA (exponential) at 17.66 appears to be capping upward movement, too.

On the bullish side, TYC appears to have been forming a bullish right triangle on the weekly chart, with a flat top at about 18.50-19.00. However, that flat top serves as resistance for now. So, despite some potential for bullish moves, a lot of overhead congestion could cause problems. The nice round number of 20 could be expected to serve as resistance, especially with the exponential 200-dma at 20.19. The simple 200-dma at 17.50 is the one causing problems for TYC today, and should be factored in as resistance for now. The flat top of that bullish triangle should be factored in as resistance for now, also.

I don't feel compelled to trade Tyco bullish or bearish, but if a trader were interested in a bullish trade, perhaps the safest entry would be after clearing that resistance mentioned above, always checking first to make sure that chart patterns at that time indicated safety in a bullish entry. As I mentioned to Rick this morning, traders can make money on TYC's moves, so I'm not suggesting it isn't possible or that I won't miss a potential move. However, I'd rather trade DD's range. It's boring, I know, but appeals to my style of trading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  2:59:47 PM
An aimless market, but not a bullish one. The CBOE p/c ratio is due out within a few minutes, but the last readings were below .70. The TRINQ is very low but won't go below 1.00, while precious metals are holding their gains. The event risk associated with tonight should keep bulls at bay, but I'd be surprised if we see a relief rally in the event that nothing bad occurs.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  2:50:16 PM
President Bush said today that a major attack on the United States by Iraq or a group working on its behalf. "An attack from (Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein or a surrogate of Saddam Hussein would cripple our economy," Bush said. Bush said he hoped that things are resolved peacefully, but that Iraq's weapons declaration was "short" on specifics.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  2:45:42 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were triggered on the short signal when the Dow traded 8335 at 14:44:00

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  2:41:03 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Alright, I've watched the Dow repeatedly fail this 8350 level and I think it's time to dip in. I mentioned the uncertainty of a New Year's bounce and because of the New Year, I'm going to start with a 1/2 position on a failure below 8340.

Go Short a 1/2 position in the broader markets when the Dow trades 8335. Set stops at Dow 8465.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/31/02,  2:38:43 PM
Peoplesoft (PSFT) $18.35 -0.29: That's one ugly chart! Last Friday I discussed PSFT as a bearish candidate, based largely on what appeared to be a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Shares have continued lower during the past two sessions, helping to form a clearly-defined right shoulder. These losses have also dragged PSFT below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Given the bearish MACD (which is on the verge of a crossover), and falling daily stochastics (5,3,3), odds that the stock will retest support at $17.00 seem pretty good.

However, because the p-n-f chart shows bullish support at $17.50, the best strategy for targeting short entries might entail waiting for a failed rally and rollover from the $18.50-$19.00 region. Those with an aggressive short-term approach could evaluate entries on a move below $18.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  2:37:37 PM
Tyco (TYC) $17.01 +10.8% ... Jeff, With semi positive news out on TYCO and a big move up on huge volume (esp for a "low volume day") it has touched it's 200dma and reversed it's P&F. I see it with a price target of 30.00 or so. Do you see it as a buy if it breaks and holds the 200dma. It hasn't been above the 200dma since Jan of 02. Lots of controversy in this company makes me wonder if we just look at the charts here to make our decision. Thanks "K"

Tyco is one of those stocks "I hate to try and trade" and main reason is the controversy surrounding the stock. While company said they didn't find any fraudulant accounting practices and a simple mistake of $382.2 million, I'm not certain their analysis will be taken for granted by the SEC.

While I know everyone wants me to have some type of "firm" view on every stock, we as traders don't have to trade every stock, even if the technicals do warrant thought of bullishness or bearishness. Again.... I just don't like the uncertainty issue.

I profiled a bearish trade on TYC sometime back, and downside was limited to around $11.75. At that time, I had a retracement (it's still there) on the stock from $35.82 to $6.07. This has 80.9% down at $11.76 and 61.8% right near today's high of $17.44. You're price target of $30 is interesting. With retracement as just noted, that would tie in with 19.1% retracement of $30.14.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  2:30:42 PM
In his latest intraday update, Jeff listed Dupont (DD) as being one of the "dogs of the DOW" stocks. I've been watching DD's chart for some time. It's an interesting chart. I've pulled up the weekly chart so that you can better see that DD has been consolidating in a 37.50-47.50 range for quite a while. In fact, it's been in this range for so long that it's hard to collect any premium by entering bull put credit spreads and bear call credit spreads to capitalize on the known range--the stock is so stable between those ranges that the premiums collected are minimal. Link Therefore, it makes sense to watch for a break out of that trading range. The P&F chart shows that DD is on a buy signal, so the expected breakout would be to the upside. Link To add to the optimism, the weekly chart shows a bullish 10-week/30-week crossover. The weekly RSI has maintained its upward trend (a series of higher lows). The (5)(3) weekly stochastic hasn't yet turned up from oversold levels, however. On-balance volume (shown on this chart: Link ) and accumulation/distribution (not shown) indicate that there's been some buying in DD since early October, but the accumulation/distribution line is threatening to move below its MA. Leigh has pointed out in the past that a rise in the OBV often leads a rise in prices.

The daily chart shows a bullish 50/200-ema cross. It shows a (5)(3) stochastic that is turning up. However, it also shows a daily RSI that broke through its ascending line, and it shows a stock that's falling beneath its 50-ema at 42.45 and its 200-ema at 42.15. The OBV doesn't look as positive on a daily basis, either, as the OBV line has moved below its average on the daily chart.

Short-term, then, DD perhaps shows some cracks in its bullish facade. Longer-term, things look fairly good as of this writing, but I'm not yet ready to predict that DD will move out of that trading range. One possibility of trading this stock is to trade the trend--going long on support or short/put on resistance, setting stops for each in case DD breaks out of that trend. Another method is to wait until DD does break definitely from this long-term trend. If it does, you might consider this: stocks that tend to trade in a range tend to re-establish a new trading range after breaking out of the previous one. Therefore, if DD breaks out to the upside, it wouldn't be surprising to see it establish a new 10-point trading range after the initial volatility subsides.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  2:22:20 PM
Very little strength here, despite nearly neutral readings from the TRINQ, TICK.NQ and QQV. The 5 hour stochastic is continuing to roll over, and with the president speaking on CNBC, I expect imminent downside (grin). The put to call ratio has made it down to .67- too much bullish speculation.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/31/02,  2:16:24 PM
If I was planning on being in a position over the 1st I think my biggest concern would be the potential for a terrorist event tonight with hundreds of large gatherings in heavy darkness all over the country. New York may be forcing everyone to go through a metal detector but hundreds of other fireworks shows are not. The tens of thousands of individual parties with hundreds to thousands of attendees will have no security at all.

We are a free country and people can just drive in from dozens of points as evidenced by the 19 forged passport entries from Canada in the recent weeks. With the potential for the markets to fall under their own weight over the next week the added risk of an event would just make me even more cautious about being long anything but puts.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  2:14:21 PM
Swing Trade Signals
After waiting for a bounce for the last couple of days, we've now gotten two failed bounce attempts. If this is the most the market can muster, then it looks like it's time to get short on the next failure. I'm looking at a move under Thursday's lows of 8285 as a short entry level. I think the first of the year can give us some strange trading, but the more I look at the recent PnF sell signals and weakening bullish support, I think the bounce scenario is looking far less likely. I'm going to hold off on entering to allow for the first of the year activity to shake out, but the plan will be to short the next failure.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/31/02,  2:06:38 PM
I think those NYSE traders singing on CNBC better keep their day jobs!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  1:58:46 PM
It looks as if Jonathan and I were noticing the same things on those (5)(3) 60-minute stochastics. We weren't the only ones, either. That brings up the matter of risk/reward. What if you were long in a big position that you perhaps intended to close out ahead of the holiday, and you saw those stochastics indicating that the markets were overbought on an hourly basis? What if the markets were up against resistance from the day before when the stochastics were indicating overbought conditions? Would you close out your positions? That might depend on your pain tolerance. Price should determine buy and sell decisions, but someone protecting a big profit might elect to close out positions now, and someone who had overextended a trading account might elect to close out now. That might stall the markets at resistance. Other traders might elect to watch and see what happens with price, but would be alerted that markets were overbought on an intraday basis. Be aware of what other market participants might be thinking as you watch these indicators.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  1:51:14 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  1:44:27 PM
The intraday 5(3) stochastics have grown overbought and are beginning to cross down on the COMPX, while the daily stoch has just given a bullish cross on this upmove, which tells me to expect a pullback with more upside to follow. Of course, the oscillators don't predict the future, but rather portray the present, and the daily oscillator could reverse at anytime. Nevertheless, the COMPX is still oversold on a daily and weekly basis. The TRINQ is dead flat at 1.00, with the TICK.NQ at 91. No short term direction here near the highs of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  1:40:43 PM
The slow lines on the (5)(3) 60-minute stochastics on the various indices not only turned up, but have moved again into levels indicating overbought conditions, just as those markets challenge yesterday's highs. That doesn't mean that markets will turn down again or fail to move through yesterday's highs, but it does mean that much strength has been expended to move the markets back to these levels. If I were trading today, I'd want to be aware of these factors as markets approach important levels.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   12/31/02,  1:40:14 PM
Covered-Call BMRN
Biomarin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BMRN), a recent covered-call position (long stock, short JAN-$7.50 call, cost basis $6.69) early exit candidate, has finally rebounded to its 50-dma on marginal volume. Aggressive traders (higher risk tolerance) who bought back their calls on the recent weakness could now use the current strength to exit the position for a small profit or roll-forward and/or down.

 
 
  Kent Barton   12/31/02,  1:40:12 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $98.95 +0.35, currently a long play on PremierInvestor, has started to curl higher after retracing roughly 38% of the rally off the December lows. Now that the daily stochastics (5,3,3) have blown off some steam and the MACD histogram has returned to positive territory, we'll be looking for FRX to retest the 50-dma at $100.80. A break above this moving average might yield an opportunity to enter new long positions.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/31/02,  1:37:59 PM
ACS $53.21 (+0.75) Steve caught this one early this morning with his 10:43 comments about relative strength. Well, the broad market caught a lift and as I type, all of the major indices are in the green. That bullishness seems to have lit a fire under shares of ACS, as it has pwered through the $53 level and is trading at new highs for the day. I'd still be very careful with chasing this one (or any other bullish play) higher ahead of the New Year. Once again, we can note the very light volume, with ACS trading only about 25% of its ADV so far.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/31/02,  1:29:52 PM
The closing of the bond market and the first New Years celebration at midnight in Australia seemed to have energized the markets and all the indexes are back in the green after the consumer confidence dip this morning. The key level this afternoon will be yesterday's afternoon high of 8365. The A/D line is going vertical again with +1725 issues and climbing. This could be the last gasp of window dressing and I suggest nobody form any market predictions from the afternoon's action. This is a throwaway day and as we all know

Thursday will be a new year in all respects. Tax consequences will be different and funds will be free to move back into cash if desired. I for one will not be making any afternoon bets. Yesterday afternoon we saw a bounce like this and a crash at the close. There is still significant overhead resistance and as we have seen this week the underlying support is dropping by about 50 points a day. The 8250 this morning was the final line in the sand and any further drop below that number could be serious.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  1:26:51 PM
The COMPX is printing highs of the day at 1344, as the TRINQ slips into bullish territory at .84, and the QQV -.44 at 40.32. The HUI and XAU are near their own daily highs, +1.77 and .58 respectively. Gold closed for trading up 3.90/oz to 347.50.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/31/02,  1:20:44 PM
Linda, I'm with you. Sharp, sudden rallies are THE hallmark of bear market rallies, at least in my never-to-be-humble opinion. If the bottom is in, then it is the most widely advertised major bottom in history. In line with my comments last night, I think this is a perfect example of creating the facts necessary to support a conclusion that has already been formed.

"I think the market will go up over the next year, so I'll justify that position with the statement that the bottom must be in due to the sharp rallies in July and October." Simply amazing...

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/31/02,  1:18:11 PM
Spreads/Combos -- Medicis Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:MRX) Shares of MRX have moved to a 6-month high ahead of the company's presentation at JP Morgan's 21st Annual Healthcare Conference, scheduled for Monday, January 6. Medicis has leading prescription products in a number of therapeutic categories, including acne, asthma, eczema, fungal infections, head lice, hyperpigmentation, photoaging, psoriasis, rosacea, seborrheic dermatitis and skin and skin-structure infections. The current (bullish) portfolio spread; JAN-40P/45P, is no longer available at a favorable credit but traders who believe the rally will continue should consider February options for a new position.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  1:16:50 PM
The end-of-year rebalancing continues. In the bond pits, volume was relatively light during this shortened session. Equities will have to trade for an entire day. Even the Sox is back in the green at 291, but still under the 295 resistance level. Note: I am heading into the office for a few hours, but will check my email there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  1:05:36 PM
Jonathan, I'm sure you'll temper your bearishness when you learn that a chief market strategist for a Charles Schwab unit has just announced that the bottom is in. One factor leading to that belief was the sudden sharp one-day rallies in late July and August. This strategist comments that these types of rallies are not consistent with on-going bear markets.

I'm not sure whether a bottom is in or not. Like Jonathan, I'll trade what the markets give me. Longer-term charts show me bearish trends, but some day, those bearish trends will reverse. Even though I know that profits come quicker in a bear market, since markets fall more quickly than they rise, I'll probably even feel happier trading in a bull market again, as I'm an optimist. However, I'm not sure I agree with the strategist about the nature of those sudden sharp rallies. In fact, I thought they met the definition of "bear market rallies," being sudden, sharp rallies driven by short-covering.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/31/02,  1:04:47 PM
SNPS $46.36 (+0.21) While certainly not screaming higher today, SNPS is once again in the green, continuing its slow and methodical rise after once again bouncing from the $45.75 level this morning. Now back over the 20-dma and finding support there, the stock is likely to be supported as well by the rising 50-dma, which is now back over $45. While I like entries near the $46 level, more cautious traders may want to wait for a decisive move through the $47 level (just above yesterday's morning high of 46.78 before opening new positions. That decisive move will likely have to wait for volume to come back into the stock after the holiday, as today's anemic 287K volume is less than 15% of the stock's ADV. Light holiday volume to be sure!

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  12:54:42 PM
Now that the pivot in the Dow is cleared, the next resistance area comes in at 8380. The volatility today is impressive, and we all know that the last trading day of the year can have many surprises (noted nicely in Bailey's Index Trader Wrap last night).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  12:47:52 PM
Honeywell (HON) $24.10 +7.25% .... adds another 2% and driving Dow Indu into positive territory. IBM $77.92 +2.25% not having as much an impact as HON.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  12:34:47 PM
Trimeris (TRMS) $44.39 (+1.45) OI call play TRMS, entered at $42.25, back on the rise after the recent pullback. Its last rally failed below the 200-dma of $45.68 and traders may want to tighten up stops as we approach that level. Our current stop is $41.50, but an alternative would be $42.50, just below today's low and just above the entry level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  12:34:31 PM
IBM $77.95 ... on the alert for pending weakness in Dow Industrials, just at intra-day pivot of 8,316.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  12:32:15 PM
The descending upper trendline on the 15 minute COMPX has been violated to the upside, and, zooming out to the 30 minute candles, we see that price needs hold this level to confirm the move. As reader Fabes has just noted, the RUT.X has gone positive with a high of the day, and I see that NDX volatility (QQV) has gone negative. TRINQ neutral at 1.14.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  12:30:42 PM
As the markets move into the noon hour, advancing issues now lead declining issues, although only barely so. On the NYSE, the ratio method calculates a 1.19 adv/dec figure, while on the Nasdaq, the 1599/1593 adv/dec issues leads to a 1.003 figure. New highs are above new lows on the NYSE, by 25:15, but the new highs/new lows figure on the Nasdaq show more new lows, with a 34:43 ratio. Down volume leads up volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, but the figures are so close that it's a neutral reading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  12:13:25 PM
The Wall Street Journal has just observed that "this rally may be in trouble". Thank goodness for that sharp and timely observation. I note that the 200 day moving averages were never violated to the upside on any of the indices, which is the classic Mason-Dixon line for bears and bulls.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  12:09:48 PM
The COMPX may be off its lows, but gold is now up over 2.00, with the HUI +.87 and XAU +.31. COMPX price is now up against the longer downsloping trendline on the 15 minute candles. If it can break 1337 we should see further upside from there. Incidentally, Leslie Laroche has just observed that the COMPX has just completed its worst December on record.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  12:09:12 PM
Bonds have pulled back in price over the last 30 minutes, but a 30-minute chart is still showing an aggressive bullish trend line. The upward move began on December 17th at 108'26. Today's high is 113'26. A move under 113 would break the trend; however, it wouldn't necessarily give me a sell signal for bonds.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  12:08:00 PM
This morning's quick move down on the indices pushed the fast stochastic line on the 60-minute charts down into levels indicating oversold conditions. That fast line has now turned firmly up, but the slow line has yet to do so across most of the indices. Squinting at the 60-minute (5)(3) on the COMPX, I can just imagine that the slow line is trying to hinge up a bit. As I've mentioned before, I like using these jittery (5)(3) stochastics because they give me a quick warning of impending moves, but the sacrifice is in knowing that they also sometimes give false signals. For that reason, I'm particularly watchful of what the slow line is doing, too, because these (5)(3) stochastics have a nasty habit of redrawing themselves at a moment's notice.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  12:05:41 PM
IBM $78.16 +2.49% .... was watching the stock rather close this morning. Looked to be a seller right near the $78.25 level and he/she looks to be there still. Probably playing the stock short or long liquidator against the Dow is my thinking. Time tell and should "know" something within the 1/2 hour.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  12:01:21 PM
The Dow is back up towards its 8316 pivot and the low during the first five-minutes of trading. This should be resistance, but since support one was already hit, there is a chance bulls will get aggressive. They first have to get the Dow above 8316. The next step is turning it into support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  12:01:17 PM
Yesterday's logbook entry notes was that we saw a test of S1 on the daily "pivot" analysis and that was it, then rally late session. Might be the case again today as all S1's were tested and rebound found. Now need to look for something like that just mentioned in 11:58:20 post to see some difference from yesterday's action. Again... these are very short-term types of observation for shorter-term traders.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  11:58:20 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,406 -0.34% ... has rallied back near intra-day pivot of 8,316. For a short/put entry, ideally would like to se an IBM $78.18 +2.57% failure of pending test of day's high of $78.46, then see IBM break back below $78 and have Dow lead to downside at 8,287.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/31/02,  11:49:36 AM
Spreads/Straddles - Activity in Genzyme (NASDAQ:GENZ) Shares of Genzyme fell to a recent low near $29 today and the move pushed our neutral-outlook (debit) straddle to a profitable outcome. The current trend is bearish as investors await the company's FDA review on January 13, when the Fed's advisory board will make a decision concerning Genzyme's Fabry Disease drug. Traders who believe the outcome might be positive can target a "break-even" exit in the long puts (near $6.25 per contract), which will allow the calls to be held risk-free with unlimited upside potential. Those who foresee a negative outcome should look for a move below current technical support near $27-28 to "lock-in" profits and if that does not occur, a trading stop (on the bearish position of the straddle) should be used to protect gains -- if the issue begins to reverse course.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  11:46:14 AM
Honeywell (HON) $23.49 +4.45% .... driving Dow Industrials stability. Company announced it has contributed $700 million in stock to its defined benefit pension plans along with $100 million in cash. In a November filing with the SEC the company had said that its employee pension plans would end 2002 with a $1.7 billion deficit if new funds were not added.Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  11:42:08 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are back to approaching Dow 8300 from the downside. We got another new low today and traders looking for a short entry can target a failure here as a partial possibility. It will be tough to get a strong directional move in one direction this afternoon on what is sure to be extremely light volume ahead of the holiday. However, since we never got that bounce I was looking for, I have started looking for short entries. As Jeff has noted in previous posts, the bullish poercentages are on the way down, but still have plenty of room to fall. We also have sell signals in the SPX, OEX and Dow. We are still in an area of support above 8200, as I have mentioned previously and was the reason I was looking for a bounce, so a move under Dow 8200 would be more decisive. However, I'll also be looking for failed rallies as possible entry points.

Curretn levels: Dow 8302/SPX 875.25/OEX 442.69/COMP 1335.06

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  11:42:01 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  11:36:52 AM
The CBOE put to call ratio has fallen to .76 with the return of short term bullishness off the lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  11:35:29 AM
This bounce from just below yesterday's lows is gathering steam, with the COMPX currently at 1333 and the TRINQ falling to 1.3, while NDX volatility as measured by the QQV is currently +.11, almost flat.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  11:29:22 AM
The NQ contract has fallen underneath its 50% retracement level at 983 and is now exactly back at that level. We have seen lower lows and lower highs for the contract, and the low of 979 did take out the 981.25 support area by a few points before recovering. Note: Pivot much higher at 994.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  11:27:25 AM
I totally agree with you. Did you ever hear any of the Bulls back in ’99 and early ’00 saying “Boy, I’m really getting tired of this market going straight up all the time. Sure wish it would head south for awhile”? Not!

Agreed. We do this to make money. Perhaps some of us are trading to assist in the exploitation of pricing inefficiencies in financial assets in order to encourage market stability, but I'm personally just in it for the profits. I don't select my trading bias in order to be stylish or because I've grown "fatigued" of the last one. I'm still amazed that this idea was just stated on a financial news channel. I'll develop "bear fatigue" when it stops making me profits. The only bear fatigue I'd recommend would be in gold- gold bears should be very tired of losing money by now.

Note however that markets do not travel in a straight line in either direction. Successful trading revolves around strategy. Trade your time frame and your risk tolerance. My comments are only in recognition of the fact that equities are in a secular bear market. As always, we trade to protect our capital and to make profits, in that order.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  11:25:28 AM
In response to my suggestion that readers use today to study the pivot points John and Jeff have been posting to see if those actions points prove useful in their personal trading styles, one reader comments as follows: I have used pivot points for some time in trading the emini's. They are an important part in my daily game plan. I also plot the globex high and low on my chart which can be great s/r points as well. I also divide the area between S1-Pivot,Pivot-R1 and so on. I find a move through that 50% level between those numbers usually accelerates the move down and up. Great short this morning at 874.75. Price retraced 50% days level and coincidently that's where the Globex low was at. Just thought you would like to know how your fellow traders use those levels. Thanks, Larry, for sharing your experiences with using pivot points.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   12/31/02,  11:22:16 AM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling - Reader's Write

Ray...I just subscribed to the OIN (previously on a two-week trial) and I have been looking closely at some of your spreads. I was wondering how you come up with these plays and what criteria you use to make the final selections for the newsletter. Thanks Much! ED.

Regarding position selection for the Spreads/Combos: To generate the majority of plays, I search through lists of candidates and evaluate the positions and their potential returns based on the technical outlook of the underlying issue, its sector and the overall market. If I feel the chart fits the strategy and there is an acceptable risk/reward ratio, the position is placed on a list of final candidates. After I have all of the possible plays for a specific day, I simply choose those which, in my opinion, appear most favorable. On some days, I also list positions on candidates (stocks or indexes) that readers have requested or submitted, so they can see what type of play a more experienced trader might utilize, based on their outlook for the underlying issue, industry, or market segment. These plays are always listed with the heading "Reader's Request" to differentiate between my picks and those coming from subscribers. The key to remember is my sections of the newsletter are really just a list of candidates to significantly limit your search for profitable trading positions. You still have to decide what you are looking for and if the candidates meet your criteria for potential plays. Only you can know what type strategies are suitable for your portfolio outlook, skill level, risk/reward tolerance, etc...Hope that helps!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  11:17:06 AM
Mark mentioned earlier that he'd be filthy rich if he knew which way RKY and the DOW would break. I can top that. I knew which way FDP would break (well, as much as anyone can be sure of these things) and I'm still not filthy rich. Link After the announcement of a lawsuit, Fresh Dole Produce plummeted, falling beneath its 200-dma. It was on a P&F sell signal, with a target of 11 at the time, but it had some support at the $17.00 level. I didn't buy when it first fell. Waiting until the (5)(3) stochastics moved up from oversold territory and until FDP then broke down out of the triangular consolidation pattern it had been forming, I entered a modest put position in early December. Since this stock trades less than a million shares/day and since I have a healthy fear of thinly traded stocks or options, and since the price action might have been purely event driven, I didn't mention the purchase on the Monitor. I thought it too aggressive. The stock dropped dramatically and I took profits, expecting to get back in at the next opportunity. However, that next opportunity happened during last week's trading, when holiday trading led to even lower volume than normal on the broader markets. I was afraid that any rally in the broader markets might carry this stock up with it. With so many days when options would be losing time premium over the holidays, I opted to stay out. Too bad. Still, my mantra is that there's always another good play for another day. As Mark has mentioned with ABC, I'll watch for my next opportunity after the holidays. Now that I've watched this stock's behavior over the last month, I'll also feel comfortable mentioning the next opportunity in the Monitor. Still, that next opportunity still won't make me rich, I imagine, as I'm still wary of entering too large a position on stocks that trade under a million shares a day. If someone, somewhere decides that the suit won't affect FDP's bottom line, any option position might see profits evaporate.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/31/02,  11:11:13 AM
can you please discuss significant support and resistence level for msft

Sure thing! Up until today, I would have said important support was $52.25, the site of both the 200-dma and the 38% retracement of the range from July low to December high. But today's drop has violated that level, possibly turning it into mild resistance. Still below current levels, we have support near $51, left over from late October, and then the mid-October gap ($49.30-51.26), which could also provide support in conjunction with the 50% retracement at $50.19. Overhead resistance is getting pretty heavy for Mr. Softee here, with a fair amount of congestion in the $53-55 area, compounded by the declining 20-dma ($54.01) and the falling 50-dma ($54.71). Now that the breakout over $56.00-56.50 has failed, I expect MSFT to see stiff resistance in that area next time it is encountered. In a nutshell, I see lots of near support and lots of near resistance, making it tough to eyeball a winning directional trade.

Hey Mike, might this one make a good candidate for one of your Couch Potato strategies?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  11:09:03 AM
CNBC has just mentioned "bear fatigue" as a reason to be bullish, with Leslie Laroche noting that many bears are just tired of being bearish. Personally, I don't expect to ever grow tired of making profits, and find the very mention of so stupid an idea absolutely astounding. Just my humble opinion.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  11:06:00 AM
We have precious metals in the green today, with HUI +.58 to 145.28, XAU +.26 to 77.12.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  11:04:35 AM
The Sox is near its session lows (286.41) as the Dow remains under Support 1 of 8268. A move back above this area for the blue chips could get a small round of short covering. The downside objective from current levels remains at 8204.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  10:48:03 AM
Bear Stearns (BSC): $59.00 (-1.00) OI put play BSC gave the fresh PnF sell signal at $59.00 and now has a bearish vertical count of $51.00. So far it is holding at $59 and I'd like a move below that level for new entries. There is bullish support at $57 that shorts should be aware of and will most likely provide at least temporary support on the way down.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  10:45:47 AM
The retest of the post-consumer confidence numbers break of the trendline resulted in a failure to new lows, with support coming at yesterday's morning lows. Unfortunately, the "bounce" has been little more than a pause, and the TRINQ is neutral at 1.46, giving plenty of leeway to the downside should selling reassert itself. Ditto the QQV, up a mere .57 on the day. The put to call ratio opened at .72 and rose to .89, which could provide some support under the markets.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  10:43:22 AM
Affiliated Comp (ACS): $52.66 (+0.20) OI call play ACS is bucking the trend so far today. I like the support over $56, but I'd probably hold off on new long entries here (or anywhere else) with the Dow testing relative lows on the day.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  10:43:10 AM
Jeff, Do you think IBM will trade 79 and then roll? Risk above 79 would then be 83? The downside objective 69? (grin) It is interesting how IBM is finally out-performing after a while of under performance.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   12/31/02,  10:42:04 AM
RKY $60.40 (-0.60) This OI Put play is a perfect proxy for the action of the broad market again today. Since the solid drop a couple weeks ago, the stock is drifting sideways in a fairly narrow range, just above the $60 support level. While the price action looks weak, it is interesting that the bears haven't been able to stage a solid breakdown below support. This is similar to what we're seeing in the broad market, with the DOW once again testing the 8250 support level this morning. Will it hold, or will it fall?

If I knew that, I'd already be filthy rich! GRIN But my gut feel is that support on both the DOW and RKY will break, but not necessarily today. As I mentioned last night, I'm very hesitant to read too much into the price action over the past couple weeks due to the light volume. I would suggest that traders looking to enter a new play, should consider waiting until Thursday when normal volume patterns should begin to return.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  10:41:05 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,264 -0.8% .... recent trade at 8268.66 tests S1 of 8,268.66. Trader's trading levels now look for intra-day resistance back at the "pivot" of 8,316, with next level of support being s2=8,204.47.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  10:40:28 AM
With this decline, OEX and SPX 50% retracement levels (from the rally off October lows) might figure into trading. The OEX 50% retracement of that rally occurs at 437.87, and the SPX 50% retracement occurs at 861.46. Yesterday, I also calculated the 50% retracement of the fall from August highs to October lows. On the SPX, that 50% retracement level comes in a little above the number listed above, at 866.82. These are likely places for a bounce, if one is going to occur.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  10:34:15 AM
Volume patterns in the earliest trading aren't as bearish as I'd expect them to be, given the price action. Adv/dec numbers (ratio method) show more decliners than advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, at .92 and .81 respectively, but I've seen much lower numbers lately. New highs actually outnumber new lows on both, although it's nearly even on the Nasdaq. Up/down volume is almost exactly even on the Nasdaq, while down volume runs twice up volume on the NYSE. These volume patterns aren't giving me strong clues as to market direction. They're early numbers for one thing, and early numbers can be distorted. I'd expect stronger selling pressures, but at the same time, these adv/dec numbers are certainly sustainable throughout the day. Lastly, volume is light. This might be a great day for abstaining from trading, and instead studying those pivot points John and Jeff have been posting, seeing if you think this method of determining action points might work for your style of trading.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  10:27:26 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are setting fresh intraday lows, as the bounce has failed and we could re-test Dow 8250 before the day is out. Current levels: Dow 8275/SPX 872.28/OEX 441.12/COMP 1332

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  10:27:02 AM
Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) $17.36 .... trading 3 for 2 stock split today. Some charting systems may show stock down 34%, but not the case. Stock actually down just $0.40, or -2.2%. Link

Traders or investors that may have some type of pending order in the stock or options may want to check account for share quantity in their pending open orders.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  10:18:04 AM
Worry over unemployment is being touted as the primary reason for the fall in the consumer confidence number this morning. Lately, as I look at trading in European markets, I see the same worry being listed as a primary reason for decreased spending in Europe. This is especially true in Germany, the world's third largest economy, where unemployment stands at 10% according to one news source.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  10:15:48 AM
Price on the COMPX is staging an impressive reversal off the day low and making another run for the ascending trendline on the 5 minute COMPX. 1338 is the approximate level to be tested as resistance here.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  10:15:20 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Markets are crawling back after the Consumer Confidence disappointment, with the Dow back over 8300 and the SPX back over 875. I am hesitant to open a new position today before the holiday, although at this point I'd be looking for a break under 8250 to enter short on the other side of the New Year.

Current levels Dow 8306/OEX 442.76/SPX 875.19/COMP 1336

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  10:14:12 AM
Looking at the Dow: 50% of today's range comes in very close to the low during the first five minutes (8313). With the pivot near there as well, there could be some resistance at this level in the near term.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  10:08:50 AM
American Int'l (AIG) $56.72 (-0.69) OI put play AIG, entered at $61.15, is approaching its relative low of $56.45. New short entries can target a move under $56.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  10:07:27 AM
The Sox index, falling under 295 yesterday, had an intra-day high of 294.53 this morning. The index is currently at 289.90 and fractionally lower on the day. With that said, shorts definitely have the upper hand.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  10:04:33 AM
Consumer Confidence The Conference Board reported that December's consumer confidence fell to 80.3, which was below the 86.0 consensus.

NDX and QQQ hit "hardest" to downside and now below intra-day pivots and session lows. QQQ $24.45 -0.73% and NDX 983.73 -0.54% here.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  10:04:06 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
That Consumer Confidence disappointment took us out of the LONG signal when the Dow traded 8299 at 10:02:10

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  10:02:41 AM
The fed has added 2.5B via 3 day repo, for a 500M net addition.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  10:02:30 AM
I sure would like to feel more optimistic about market direction than I'm feeling. Last night, I kept looking at the OEX daily chart and noticing that small-bodied candle that formed yesterday, at the end of the most recent decline. Although not a doji, the small real body indicated that there could be a lessening of the downward momentum. That opened up the possibility of a bounce today or at least some consolidation at current levels. So far, the (5)(3) hourly stochastics are pointed straight down in full roll this morning, with some space to fall further. Perhaps the markets were already anticipating that lower consumer confidence number.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  10:02:05 AM
There goes the trendline. Con con falls from 84.9 to 80.3, near 9 year lows.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  9:55:31 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We should get a move in one direction or another when the 10:00 numbers are released. Not much conviction ahead of time. More aggressive traders can widen the stop slightly to allow for the initial reaction to fade. Right now we are weakening and it appears traders are expecting a disappointment.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  9:53:36 AM
The trendline on the 5 minute COMPX has just supported price on this last decline, and this morning's gap down violation lasted for under 10 minutes. We'll wait to see what the consumer confidence data adds to the mix at 10AM.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  9:52:08 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The pivots from this morning's highs (as opposed to Jeff's more defined points)that I'll be watching to the upside are Dow 8341/SPX 880/OEX 445

Curent levels Dow 8340/SPX 444.66/OEX 444.52

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  9:50:17 AM
Economic numbers due today include the following: Consumer confidence for December, at 10 ET; Chicago purchasing managers index for December, at 10 ET; and Oil supply report for week ended Dec. 27, at 5 ET.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  9:44:56 AM
Sector Action is mixed in first 15-minutes of trading.

Strength sector out of the gate is Semiconductor (SOX.X) 293.67 +1.36%

Weakness in Home Construction (DJUSHB) 301.67 -1.54%

These are only two sectors early on that are +/- 1%.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  9:43:19 AM
Note: Bond yields are approaching lows set back on November 12th. 30-year yields are currently at 4.74% and have traded 4.726% already this morning. The relative low in yields on the 12th comes in at 4.722. A break of these yields should mean more selling within equities. ticker: TYX.X For 10-year (benchmark) yield, ticker: TNX.X.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  9:42:37 AM
Al Green's 22 elves owe 2B in expiring repos for today. We await the announcement from the fed to determine whether that money will be drained from the markets or whether a fresh repo will be added.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  9:40:53 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Woops! The Bulls tried to scoop the opening dip, turning us green for just a moment before slipping back into the red. I'd really like to see the SPX back over 880 to get any momentum on a move to the upside. Current levels: Dow 8332/OEX 444.61/SPX 879.03/COMP 1341

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  9:40:37 AM
Daily Pivots .... as listed last night, INDU, SPX, OEX, NDX/QQQ all trading right around their daily pivots, marginally above the pivots. Slightly positive on morning basis.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  9:38:17 AM
Redbook reported this morning that chain-store sales in the week of Dec 28 were 2.8% stronger than a year ago. This reading sends the December to date sales index 0.7% higher than Nov. The report also noted that December merchandise sales (through the 28th) were 1.3% stronger than Dec of 2001. Looking elsewhere, the OMB has lowered its estimate for the cost of an Iraq war to $50b-$60bln.

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/31/02,  9:36:01 AM
For the Dow, today's pivot comes in at 8316. Resistance 1 is at 8380, while Resistance 2 is above at 8429. The first support is seen at 8268, with the second coming in at 8204.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  9:35:23 AM
The uptrend on the 5 minute COMPX has been violated by this morning's open. We'll see if the 1338-39 level, which is the current location of the trendline violation, acts as resistance to confirm the break.

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  9:32:59 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are seeing some weakness on the open and as I said in my earlier post, traders cans et stops on the long signal at 8299.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  9:32:48 AM
If the OEX should move up this morning, a ten-day chart shows first resistance in the 447 area, and then above that, between 449-450. That 449-450 area would correspond to historical resistance and also to the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the October lows. That retracement level is 449.69.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  9:31:57 AM
COMPX opens 3 points down at 1336, QQV +.48, TRINQ 1.7.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  9:30:43 AM
Market veteran and astro-timer Arch Crawford was scheduled to appear on CNBC yesterday at 5:45 EST. His appearance was confirmed on air at 5:38PM. At 5:50ish, Ron and Sue apologized that he wouldn't be on due to "technical difficulties" with the feed from Arizona that, I guess, weren't apparent 7 minutes before the interview was to commence. As many have been telling me, Arch has been predicting doom for the markets as of late- perhaps his bias was the "technical difficulty". Please let me know if Arch makes any comments about the affair today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/31/02,  9:28:22 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/31/02,  9:20:25 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are still holding the LONG signal at this level. However, I wasn't thrilled with the lower low yesterday and the failed rally. I have raised the stop loss on the signal to Dow 8299, as I am not sure another trip below 8300 will give us another bounce.Futures are pointing slightly higher this morning, so that's a start, but I'm not going to "wish and hope" if we get another rollover from a lower high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/31/02,  8:58:54 AM
The US Dollar Index got croaked to just above 101.80 this morning, and is now trading "up" to just below 102. Despite this, gold has been sold off in USD, to just above 341/oz. That smells like an intervention move to me, but price is king either way. Yields are red, with FVX -.9 bps, TNX -.3bps and TYX -2.2 bps. QQQ is trading 24.56, down .07 from its close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/31/02,  7:01:02 AM
The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 rose today. As of this writing, they stood at 1.07% and 1.31%, respectively. The FTSE 100 closes this year's last day of trading early today, at 12:30 London time. Bloomberg reports that the FTSE will close the year down 25%, while the CAC 40 will close down more than a third. Most troubled of all, however, was the German DAX. The DAX was closed today, but ended the year down 44%. With the world's third largest economy, Germany faces the prospect that its 10% unemployment rate and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's plan to raise taxes may further stifle investment and spending.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/02,  12:05:12 AM
Are you going to lose the Market Monitor?

If you have not signed up for the 2003 renewal special you are in danger of losing access to the market monitor beginning on Jan-6th. We think the information on the monitor is critical to any active trader. Beginning on Jan-6th we are going to be charging 75 cents a day extra on an annual basis for access to the monitor. If you have not already signed up for the 2003 renewal special you need to do so quickly before it expires.

Are the intraday thoughts of Jeff, Steve, Jonathan, Linda, Mike, Mark Phillips, Mark Wnetrzak, Kent, Ray, John and myself worth 75 cents a day? That is for you to decide.

Signing up for the annual rate for the newsletter and the monitor will also get you (2) option expiration mouse pads, (7) books on trading, (2) videos of Jeff, Buzz and myself. These are worth the extra 75 cents alone and they are free to Market Monitor subscribers.

Lock in the cheapest rate possible with a ton of freebies now! Click here: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   12/30/02,  12:05:01 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   12/30/02,  12:04:35 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/30/02,  12:04:13 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

 
 

Market Monitor Archives