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  Jeff Bailey   1/10/03,  2:07:02 AM
It is very late or should I say early Friday morning. S&P futures (sp03h) are trading 923.50, down about $1.50 from their close. Things are pretty quiet this time of day.

This morning's 09:00 Update is Looooong and I will try my darndest to get it to you in a timely fashion. We will be watching the VIX and levels disussed like a hawk tomorrow.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  6:30:47 PM
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  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  5:27:13 PM
Intra-day Pivot/Levels for tomorrow (01/10/03) ...

INDU : S2=8529 , S1= 8652, P=8720 , R1=8844 , R2=8911

SPX : S2=903 , S1=915 , P=922 , R1=934 , R2=940

OEX : S2=456 , S1=463 , P=467 , R1=474 , R2=477

NDX : S2=1043 , S1=1059 , P=1072 , R1=1088 , R2=1100

QQQ : S2=25.88 , S1=26.30 , P=26.64 , R1=27.06 , R2=27.40

Can be compared with today's (01/09/03) pivot/levels of

INDU : S2= 8,481, S1= 8,538, P=8,637 , R1=8,694 , R2=8,793

SPX : S2= 899, S1= 904.5, P=914 , R1=919 , R2=928

OEX : S2= 454 , S1= 457 , P=462.4 , R1=465 , R2=471

NDX : S2= 1,024, S1=1,033 , P=1049.5 , R1= 1,059, R2= 1075

QQQ : S2= 25.44 , S1= 25.69 , P=26.09 , R1= 26.34 , R2=26.74

Can be compared with Tuesday's (01/08/03) pivot/levels of

INDU : S2=8,662, S1=8,700, P=8,751 , R1=8,789, R2=8,840

SPX : S2=914, S1= 918, P=924.50 , R1=929, R2=935

OEX : S2= 463, S1=465, P=468.50, R1=471, R2=475

NDX: S2=1,045, S1= 1,058, P= 1,070, R1=1,084, R2=1,096

QQQ: S2=25.93, S1=26.29, P= 26.61, R1=26.97, R2=27.29

Note: The "one" level that first stands out to me per today's market monitor comments and past Index Trader's wraps, is the QQQ R 1 of $27.06, which isn't that far off from our "volume pivot" of $27.00, and even Wednesday's R1 of $26.97. There may be something about this $27.00 level, which may truly be some type of "key level" right now.

For me, and this will be discussed in tonight's Index Trader Wrap, the bullish % will be my overriding guide. If the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % and even the OEX Bullish % get reversed into "bull confirmed" status, I would be bullish above QQQ $27.06, and OEX 472.50.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  4:34:02 PM
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  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  4:02:32 PM
It looks as if we're going to see fairly strong volume for the day, with volume currently at 1.3 billion for the NYSE and 1.5 billion for the Nasdaq. Volume patterns continue to show strength right into the close. I keep looking for the one magic clue that will tell me intermediate market direction, but I can't find it. It still appears troublesome that markets couldn't push above recent resistance with such strong breadth, but then I have to balance that against the collapsing bond prices and other bullish signs.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  4:01:21 PM
Looks like a lot of shorts decided to get out before the Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow morning. They still were unable to hit 8800 again. However, I have that feeling or premonition that the jobs report could be positive and there could be a blast off at the open. It always happens that way when my position closes right at resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  3:59:23 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

  Mark Wnetrzak   1/9/03,  3:52:21 PM
Email Question: XMSR

Hi Mark, XMSR 3.18 +17 (5.95%), you commented yesterday on MM long/call play. Today's action, where do you see resistance/support, positive news on stock the last days. Your further comments on MM appreciated. Thanks

XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:XMSR), is a model covered-call position (long the stock, short the JAN-$2.50 calls), and is rallying on news of increased subscriber numbers. The stock is forging a stage I base since about August and has been trading fairly close to $3.00 over the last month. The December and November highs will be the first test of overhead resistance, starting around $4.00. In the near-term, the move above the 30- and 50-dma on increasing volume is bullish. If the stock can get above $4.00 and its 150-dma, the next test would be around $6.00, or the September high. Remember, with an In-The-Money covered-call, I am not interested so much in the stock moving up, as I am in the stock simply "staying" above the sold call strike-price or the cost basis.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  3:48:20 PM
It was only 34 minutes into the session (10:04:40) when Jonathan talked about the "open drive" possibility. 15 minutes until the close and it looks solid. However, these five-minute patterns does not tell a trader to keep positions overnight or not.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  3:48:16 PM
Steven mentioned an important resistance level to watch in the Dow. One level that's appeared important for the OEX is the 472.47 high from November 6. I wouldn't be surprised to see a last push just up under that level by the close, complicating the decision for traders.

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  3:47:06 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
It looks like we are going to make another run higher here at the close, and this is a reminder that stops on the 1/2 short signal are set at Dow 8825.

Current levels: Dow 8784/SPX 928.07/SPX 470.28/COMP 1438

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  3:31:31 PM
Swing Trade Signals
As we break out to new highs, I'm re-examining the levels of support/resistance we've seen over the last couple of days. The reality is that not many of them have served us well. The intraday resistance levels we saw prior to Monday's rally did not hold as support on the way down. The intraday support levels from the last couple of days did not hold on the way up as resistance. So far the only level that has held was resistance around Dow 8800. That being the case, I'm going to leave stop on the short signal at 8825. I have given alternate stops for more conservative traders, who should have been taken out of the play at 8650, 8700 or 8750, leaving only the diehards with a 1/2 short position entered at 8700 (actually 8698). The bounce that erased all of yesterday's loss is very impressive and I certainly don't want to get caught spitting in the wind, but I am going to rely on the one level of resistance that is still in place and on the fact that the action of the last two days seems to have cleansed the support levels immediately below if we roll over from this level once again.

Traders should recall the repeated downside tests from just a few days ago below Dow 8300. For all the bears efforts, they could not break that level on a closing basis. Right now we are seeing similar action at 8800, with the VIX bouncing off support. The bond market did see an awful lot of red today (bullish for stocks), so I am considering the current in the higher risk category.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  3:30:03 PM
If the XAU does not violate either its high or its low before the end of the day, it will have printed an inside day today. This is a day when the candle sits inside the previous day's candle. (The candle is smaller than that of the previous day, with its high lower than the previous day's high and its low higher than the previous day's low.) This is called a harami in candlestick charting. It's a signal of indecision. Those who trade inside days look for a break above the highs or below the lows of the inside day for buy or sell signals. Today's high has been 77.47 and the low was 75.60. I wouldn't base buy or sell signals on this basis alone, but would also look at intermarket relationships and other aspects of technical analysis.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  3:27:52 PM
The indicators are pegged at current levels as the COMPX trades in a narrow range. It made an attempt at some new highs but seems to have fallen back. The TRINQ has rallied (heavy sarcasm here) all the way up to .32, and the QQV to 36.04. Little action aside from that, other than the feeling of a big move in the future. Just the direction that's uncertain. Perhaps we could add scary violin music to the Market Monitor for times when the bollinger bands begin to contract.

  Mark Wnetrzak   1/9/03,  3:27:22 PM
Covered-Call Portfolio
The model covered-call portfolio is benefiting from the current bullish spike and even the weaker issues are moving into the black. For those investors that were looking to exit positions and had bought back their sold calls (in weakness), days like today (strength) offer an excellent chance to exit or adjust the position to a lower cost basis.

Two covered-call candidates I profiled here (Market Monitor) on Tuesday, FDRY and GNSS, continue to power higher. FDRY of course, guided upwards after yesterday's close. FDRY is due to report earnings on Wednesday, January 29.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  3:25:41 PM
All aboard! The S&P topped again and the Dow has not been able to hit 8800 yet. If you doubt there is going to be a break of 8800 on the third attempt then now is the time to get short again. I am still a believer until we see 8850.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  3:14:24 PM
Jeff, I will get it one of these days. We were talking about the OEX and how the Bullish Percent should reverse back into a column of X's today. Moreover, that the 472.50 level in the OEX should give a bulls a reason to get excited. Then, if the bullish percent gets high again (say, above 70), a trader could use pivot analysis and get a level to define risk IF the bullish percent starts to stall at these levels (doesn't give a new 'x' box for a few days or so). This theory seems better than just waiting for the Bullish Percent to possibly go back into "Bear Alert" status.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  2:58:23 PM
CNBC is discussing the campaign to equate driving SUV's with helping terrorists. Anyone who was alive and driving in the mid-70's might remember people who shouted at drivers who were in gas-guzzling automobiles or even pounded on or damaged those autos. It's just my opinion, but I think the campaign is a divisive one that we don't need right now. Disclosure: I do not drive a SUV, and drove an un-air-conditioned Toyota Corolla in Houston's heat during the 70's gas crisis. (Toyota Corollas could not be factory equipped with air conditioning back then.) (Grin)

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  2:44:39 PM
I see the rise in yields well correlated to the fall in the dollar, if it's foreign selling of US bonds. FVX is up 19.2 bps currently, and the COMPX found support at 1433. HUI and XAU are slipping back down, and it looks for the moment like the upside is not yet over for the COMPX. The put to call ratio just came in at .78. Few surprises so far this afternoon.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  2:35:18 PM
The Dollar, currently at 101.51, is most likely going to set another lower high and lower low on a daily chart. This isn't really bullish for stocks, but seems to be overshadowed by the rise in bond yields (lower prices). Looking elsewhere, the Utility Index is lower (-0.88%), but could be just profit taking after the recent euphoria over Bush's stimulus plan. The Sox is higher by 3.39% to 333, and likely helping the Composite outperform the Dow (+2.54 to +1.72%). Speaking of the Dow, longs would like to see a move above 8763; possibly being the catalyst right back to resistance at 8800.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  2:16:50 PM
PVN I wrote about this stock back in Nov-2001 at 2.50 and it rose to $8.50 April. Unfortunately it fell back to $2.50 in July 2002 and I wrote about it again in the Editors Plays. Many readers took advantage of PVN which was profiled as a long term stock/leaps candidate at those times. PVN is now testing $7.25 again and has a nice chart. Several readers are asking if they should sell now for a nice profit or hold on for the future. You will never do bad taking a profit, especially a double. However, when I first wrote about the stock I stressed the long term benefits and the possibility it would eventually retrace to something much higher. The 2001 highs were over $60. While I think PVN will not be back in that area any time soon I do think it could be $20-$25 over the next couple years. PVN has been working out of its problems. They are securtizing debt and closing problem accounts. They have a huge receivable balance at 18% to 24% interest rates plus huge fees for holding one of their cards. If they did nothing but sit on the current cash flow they would do well.

I see the current challenge as $8.50 where everyone who missed the exit last time will bail. Once over $8.50 the shorts should start covering. This is a quality company with great prospects once the economic recovery really appears. The worst is behind them in my opinion. Support is $6.50 and I would be a buyer on any pullback with the knowledge that we could see another dip once $8.50 is touched.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  2:13:31 PM
Why do I use the ratio method to calculate volume patterns, rather than the subtraction method? Each is a valid method, but I believe that the ratio method protects from distortion that might arise on light volume or heavy volume days. For example, consider up/down volume on the NYSE. Imagine that you were using the subtraction method to plot a graph, and that on Day 1, 900,000 shares were traded on upticks while 300,000 were traded on downticks. This would be a 1.2 billion day on the NYSE, about average. The subtraction method would show a positive 600,000 shares. Imagine that on Day 2, the volume was lighter, but market participants were still buying. 750,000 shares traded on upticks and 150,000 shares traded on downticks. The subtraction method again gives you a difference of 600,000 shares, so that a graph would show the line flattening. However, calculations by the ratio method show a different pattern. On Day 1, the ratio method would show a 3/1 ratio (900,000/300,000 = 3/1 or 3), and Day 2, the ratio method would show a 5/1 ratio (750,000/150,000 = 5/1 or 5). A graph would show the ratio-method line sloping upward, accurately reflecting the increasing buying pressure.

This difference in results can become important if you're looking at graphs that cover long periods of time, especially with the adv/dec line. More issues trade on the NYSE and Nasdaq indices than once did (although the Nasdaq may be headed down again after so many companies were delisted), and the subtraction method would distort the line, showing much bigger differences in recent years than in past years.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  2:08:14 PM
There doesn't appear to be any options available on HUI. Is there any substitute that I can use to get options on unhedged miners?

There are no options on the HUI, but there are on the XAU. For an unhedged option play, I like Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  2:07:22 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

  Kent Barton   1/9/03,  2:05:05 PM
Crude oil futures (cl03g) are rebounding after testing the $30.00 level on Wednesday. The continued uncertainty in Iraq that Jim alluded to might be helping oil bulls to get some traction. But what really seems to be driving the sector is the ongoing strike in Venezuela, which is now in its 38th day. The latest news out of Caracas has the country's currency tanking to a record low after bank employees announced they would walk off their jobs this week. As chaotic as the situation is, time is clearly running out for Hugo Chavez. At some point a critical mass of milllions of citizens opposed to his rule will lead to a shift in military support. (At least, that's the way this armchair analyst sees it.) Chavez survived a military coup last year but probably won't be so lucky this time around.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  2:02:25 PM
There continues to be some speculation of funds allocating out of bonds and into stocks are a more intermediate term basis. The 30-year is down significantly (-1'29) to 109'04, and has an intra-day low of 108'18. On a weekly basis, this does represent the start of a nice failure and a possible move back to 106'13. Calculating out weekly levels, I have a pivot this week in the 30-year at 111'19, and Support underneath at 108'20 and 107.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  1:57:43 PM
While commenting that war can be averted, John Negroponte, US Ambassador to the UN, says that if Iraq's attitude does not change before the 27th, there will be serious consequences and that Iraq must shoulder the blame for those consequences. That's about what we all expected.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  1:52:53 PM
can you explain what is HUI and XAU.what it stands for and their correlation to trading?

HUI is the index of unhedged gold miners, while XAU is the precious metals index, which contains gold and silver miners, but the gold miners are overrepresented by "hedged" miners, such as ABX and AU. They are referred to as "hedged" because they short gold using a variety of techniques. In a bull market in precious metals, such as we've had for over a year, the XAU underperforms the HUI because the hedgers must buy in their shorts at higher prices. I watch these (a) because I'm very long precious metals and miners and (b) because they're a good measure of how the commodity is performing, which is itself a good eye on how the USD is performing, and hence the equity and bond markets. Gold goes up when the dollar is weakening, which usually bodes ill for equities, bonds, or both.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  1:47:10 PM
I believe that Saddam used the super high explosive SMX (which is used to set off a nuclear bomb) to blast holes in his cement mines like he claimed. Don't you? (grin)

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  1:46:52 PM
The put to call ratio is really hanging in here in the .70s range, and ticks up quite readily. Option bears are still very itchy on their collective trigger, which tells me that we might not have seen the end to this hysteria buying. My ideal setup would be a last gasp to the top to drop the put to call ratio and the TRINQ and QQV lower still, and then load on some puts. Perhaps it's just past conditioning from the beatings administered during the March and October rallies of last year. But it's easy to undersestimate the force of bear market rallies. While the COMPX is above its 200 dma, it's even possible to say that it isn't a bear market, but I personally don't agree. The COMPX slid back under 1435 as I typed that last :)

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  1:44:05 PM
Volume patterns have tamed down a little except for the new highs/new lows figures on the NYSE. As of this writing, there were 104 new highs to 7 new lows. On the Nasdaq, the ratio is 77 new highs to 23 new lows. Adv/dec ratios were 2.19 for the NYSE issues and 2.21 for the Nasdaq issues. Up volume is 4.8 times down volume on the NYSE, down from 7.2 earlier, and is 8.3 times down volume on the Nasdaq, down from 10.7 earlier. Volume is 837 million shares on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq. Strong volume, almost exuberant volume patterns, and still the markets can't push through the next levels of resistance: that still seems bearish to me, but this morning's strength still makes me wary.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  1:36:57 PM
Looks like everyone that failed to get short on Tuesday got another chance today. In my opinion nothing has changed except the shorts got squeezed once again. The internals are weakening and just like yesterday we are approaching critical levels again. The TRIN at .36 this morning was showing very overbought conditions. 8800 is still strong resistance. Nothing has changed until that level is broken.

The UN news that there is still no smoking gun just delays the final start of the war. Eventually they will trip over something that Saddam failed to hide completely and trouble will start. The uncertainty will continue even past the Jan-27th meeting.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  1:35:15 PM
HUI and XAU are coming back, with HUI now down just .51 on the day, and XAU .84. Surprising strength given the extent of the equity rally so far.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  1:27:19 PM
Starting to see some failure(s) in the equity markets, as the last upside retracement area was not hit and the market has weakened under short term support levels. More neutral here than anything else, especially with the 30-year down almost 2 full points and strong selling in both the five and ten year sector. Normally, this type of selling has the Dow higher by about 200 points and closing on its highs.

  Kent Barton   1/9/03,  1:26:28 PM
GSO.X Software index (114.71 +4.90): It's somewhat rare to see the GSO.X outperform the SOX.X, but that's the case today. Positive sales news from SAP (discussed by Jeff in the morning intraday update) and the overall tech sector bullishness has helped to send the index to another relative high. Another day of similar gains would lead to a retest of resistance in the 119-120 area.

Sector leader MSFT ($55.45 +1.21) has moved back above its 50-dma at $55.00 but still faces overhead resistance at $56.00. A move over this level would have short-term bulls looking for a rally up to the multi-month highs near $59.00.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  1:24:21 PM
got the impression that for the _VIX_, there are a couple of times each year (around the VIX at 20 with OTM SPX options i believe) that you can make a bundle going short. Is there a similar magic low number or area for the QQV? (and I assume one would load the boat with QQQ OTM puts when this occurs)

Take a look at the weekly candles on the QQV.X (Quote.com). We're near or at that level now. Trouble is, the QQV is a young indicator, not nearly as much history as for the VIX. It was lower in January/February of 2002. But again, we're in a rare low area already. It's one indicator among many, but I can't shake the conviction that the QQQ is very overbought already.

Other readers are asking about the QQV. It's the VIX, but for the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). It charts the implied volatitity of QQQ options.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  1:24:15 PM
QQQ $26.71 .... slipping back below R2 of $26.74 here. Most likely has some short-term bullish momentum players looking for the exits near-term. Assessing downside back to R1 of $26.34 versus reward to $27.00.

  Mark Phillips   1/9/03,  1:19:33 PM
After the bullish morning move, we've spent the past 2 hours drifting sideways, and while there aren't any signs of weakness just yet, neither are there indications of a bullish continuation through the afternoon. The struggle we have as traders is to find meaningful benchmarks that give us clues as to the direction of the broad market. We all know that a strong bullish move requires the participation of the Financial stocks, so I've been watching the KBW Banking index (BKX.X) lately. I find it interesting the number of times the BKX has been rejected at the $800 level over the past several months. First in August, then early November, twice in late November and we're back testing that level again this week. During this whole process, the 200-dma has been steadily dropping and is now under $800 at $790.07, and it appears to be applying pressure to the index. I see 2 possible outcomes. The first is that resistance holds, and the broad market remains in its broad range that has contained price action for the past 2 months. But if the BKX can break and close above both the 200-dma and the $800 level, then I will take it as a sign that market strength is building and the early December highs will likely be broken.

  OI Technical Staff   1/9/03,  1:18:42 PM
This is a test. Sorry for any inconvience that this causes.

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  1:05:38 PM
Swing Trade Signals
As many of my fellow analysts have pointed out, we have stalled and picking direction from this level getting harder. We haven't seen a convincing rally failure, nor have we seen a breakthrough of previous resistance. Right now my stop on the short signal is still set at Dow 8825 and I'll let it sit where it is. We got the PnF reversals in the Dow and SPX, but fell just shy of the reversal in the OEX. Conservative traders may want to close positions and wait for a clearer signal, but I still think that from this level, the risk/reward favors the downside. My alternative stops at 8700 and 8750 were both violated and should leave only more aggressive traders currently short the 1/2 position.

While I expected a bounce, this bounce took us a little higher than I thought it would, so my convictions are not as strong as they were on the last failure from this level.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  12:58:05 PM
Here's what I'm noting so far: An inability of the transportation index to push above its exponential 200-dma this morning; a utility index that's moving lower today, prices stalled underneath or just above important resistance levels despite the monumental push being offered by the strong up/down volume patterns, daily 5(3)3 stochastics rolling or trying to roll across many indices. Taken together, these alert me to the potential for new weakness, but I'm also remembering that we were getting some of these same signals in the middle of November, when markets were challenging the "right shoulder" level of the previous failed H&S formation. Right now, I'm thinking that all the evidence shows that markets should fail to push through those current right-shoulder levels, but something doesn't feel right. That gut feeling may be nothing more than worry, but I can't discount a possible break through those resistance levels. If I were long, I'd be watching stop closely. If I were thinking about going short, I'd sure be watching stops closely.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  12:55:27 PM
The Dow never did reach that 8763 area per earlier post, and is now back to some support in the range of 8723 to 8733. Looking elsewhere, General Motors (GM) said today that expenses from its underfunded U.S. pension plan will rise about $2 billion (before taxes) in 2003. The company's underfunded amount was 19.3 billion at the end of 2002 from 9.1 billion the year earlier. Shares are higher by 2.27% to 38.55 on Thursday. The company does have solid cash flows; contributing 4.8 billion to its pension plan in the 4Q.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  12:42:17 PM
The COMPX is finding support just above the 200 dma, down from its highs but the TRINQ and QQV remain in the basement, .24 and -3.16 respectively. The put to call ratio is at the middle of today's range, .75, showing a pretty even keel between bullish and bearish. Quite frankly, I'm baffled as to short term direction, and I believe most traders are too. On a fundamental basis, I believe the markets are in a very toppy zone, but I'm also quite nervous about it and could see a rally from here, even though such would make no sense to me. The bullish descending wedge on the QQV weekly chart coincides with how I've been "feeling" the QQQ over the past weeks. Incidentally, for those asking about it, ascending and descending wedges (pointed into a narrowing range as they extend) tend to break and return to where they started (the upper or low end of the wedge at its commencement). I've learned this from Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, which is one of my favorite resources. I guess my bottom line is that I believe long trades from here are very courageous/aggressive, and require tight stops. Bearish trades at this level are also scary, but they at least line up with my view of current fundamentals and event risks. Either way, tight stops. And remember: cash is a position. If the current action makes your stomach churn, stay on the sidelines, love your cash, and wait for a more obvious setup. I can guarantee that we'll get many of those.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  12:32:47 PM
Waiting time: With bond yields, indices or stocks poised just below important resistance levels, with the VIX poised just above an important support level, and with markets seemingly at a standstill, this is the time when I'm always tempted to micro-manage things. However, the day has to unfold and show us what will happen next--a push through those higher levels or a failure.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  12:32:17 PM
QQQ ... per 11:00 update and mentioning of "clerk error" in the QQQ. With 5-minute chart and volume turned on, do you see the big spike in price at 09:40-09:45? That's the "cler error" I think. Then, do you see the big volume spike of 2.7 million at 10:55 (QQQ: $26.90)? I think that is the offsetting or squaring of error.

I mention this here so that a bear doesn't get too carried away right now with thinking of big reversal intra-day. However, still interesting so close to the $27 level.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  12:26:33 PM
QQQ $26.82 +3.62% ... would now look for some support at S2 of $26.74, but note from our Index Trader Wrap, that current session high as been $26.98, which is just under our "volume pivot" of $27 we've talked about in recent weeks. That $27 is perhaps a "logical" near-term risk/reward for "day traders."

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  12:14:51 PM
Up volume remains high in proportion to down volume on the Nasdaq, currently more than 10.7 times down volume. On the NYSE, up volume now is 7.2 times down volume. New highs/new lows figures show an out-of-proportion ratio of 89 new highs to 5 new lows on the NYSE, while there's a 66:20 ratio on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec figures remain relatively stable from earlier this morning, with ratio-method calculations of 2.55 for NYSE-traded issues and 2.5 for Nasdaq-traded issues. Volume now seems relatively strong for recent weeks, with 613 million shares traded on the NYSE and 771 million on the Nasdaq.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  12:04:32 PM
CBS sources report a Gallup/UBS poll that rates employee confidence at 66, down from November's 71.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  12:02:11 PM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  11:53:11 AM
For those who read my "Making Sure it Fits" article (on home page under Investor Education), it is interesting how a fitted retracement places a 50% level at 8763. Yes, I really only like fitted retracements once R2 or S2 is cleared, since having too many retracment lines can be maddening. However, this is still something I saw that I think is worth noting (especially as other contracts are clearing their R2 levels today). More thinking outloud than anything right now.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  11:45:40 AM
Shares of Best Buy Co. (NYSE:BBY) are higher by over 10% to 25.80 after reporting December sales at stores open at least 14 months rose by a better-than-expected 0.4 percent. The company also said it expects total sales to increase 10 to 12 percent to $25 billion, primarily driven by the opening of 80 to 85 new stores in North America during fiscal 2004.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  11:34:14 AM
Sliding over the other, dustier side of my screen, I see that the VIX is down a wopping 1.99 to 26.43. Not bad, considering that 3 to 4 more days of similar moves will bring it below 20, which is the "auto-short" level where I made most of my profits on the short side last year.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  11:32:32 AM
As expected, the European Central Bank maintained rates at their current levels. For those wishing to read the press release, the link can be found here Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  11:27:02 AM
The COMPX has just broken this year's high, printing green at 1444.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  11:19:42 AM
The latest put to call reading is .71. The QQV is now barely twitching on the canvas, down 2.48 to 36.20, ditto the TRINQ at .24.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  11:15:35 AM
Up/down volume figures now show up volume 10.9 times down volume on the Nasdaq and 6.6 times down volume on the NYSE. Is this sustainable? I'm having difficulty deciding today. As reader Eric points out, the volume isn't as explosive as one would like to see on a rally day. I'll watch how the indices act with these volume patterns in mind. With such strong buying interest, is the COMPX able to move above the next resistance levels or does it remain stuck below them, for example? If this kind of imbalance in the up/down volume can't do the trick, no matter what the volume levels, I'd be wary of the rally continuing. Until I see that happening, I have to assume more upside is possible, but that doesn't mean I'll jump in long ahead of those resistance levels. Today may be a wait-and-see day for me.

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  11:12:03 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Today's big boost was enough to reverse the PnF column of "O" we got in the OEX and SPX yesterday. The OEX is back up against its bearish resistance line at 470. The Dow reversal would come at 8750 and traders may want to use the Dow 8750, or OEX 470 mark as alternative stops to the current Dow 8825. Due to repeated failure at 8800, I'm going to leave the stop as is, but I have no argument with those traders who would like to tighten it up. Certainly the traders who took my suggested alternative at 8700 are breathing easier at the moment.

I'm thinking back to the repeated downside tests at 8300 and I believe we could be seeing the same thing on the upside at 8800. I don't have any real evidence to back that up, just recent pattern observations.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  11:11:12 AM
It isn't the first Friday of the month, but note that tomorrow the employment report will be released. The payroll estimate is for an increase of 20k (the 4 month average). The range of estimates is from 100K to -60K; most likely because of the hard to read service sector. The claims data have not been too telling, so that makes it harder to forecast as well. There are also seasonal adjustments to be made. I like to put more weight in the ISM report, but that could be just me.

  Mark Phillips   1/9/03,  11:08:37 AM
BEAS $13.66 (+0.85) Back in the saddle again... It's been a pretty wild ride for shares of BEAS, with Tuesday's euphoric rally popping the stock up near $14, and then giving back all of those gains at the lows of the day yesterday. Today, the bulls are back in charge, with BEAS running as high as $13.79 earlier this morning and likely to challenge that $14 level again if the broad markets remain strong. Short term traders will want to continue to buy support (like we talked about doing yesterday) and take profits near resistance until the range breaks. Those with a longer-term focus (LEAPS traders, for instance) will want to wait for the next major pullback, which ought to come in the $11.00-11.50 range, just above the longer-term ascending trendline.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  11:04:57 AM
Today's low of 26.36 in the VIX brings it just below the 26.45 and 26.41 areas that were the lows in mid-November and earlier this week. In mid-November, the bounce from those lows while the markets continued upward into the December 2 highs signaled traders that something might be wrong with the rally. A continued test of that support might result in a breakdown below those levels, perhaps signaling a continuation in a rally according to some theories, but so far, the VIX has bounced each time it's hit those levels.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  11:04:16 AM
OEX 469.20 +1.97% ... today's trade at 467.50 has $2.5 box seeing 3-box reversal. Aggressive bulls will play long, look for break at 472.50 to see further upside. Tight stop at 457.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  11:01:29 AM
My long awaited (by me anyway) analysis of the NDX Volatility Index (QQV) is complete. Result? I'm looking at a bullish descending wedge on the weekly candles, going back to end of June 2002. It projects to an upside target of QQV 60ish. In other words, I expect NDX volatility to rebound from current relative lows, which is bearish for the NDX. We'll see. With the COMPX scoping Tuesday's high at 1442, and the selloff in HUI and XAU continuing, there does not need to be an end to the upside here. The TRINQ is going lower, indicating an increase in buying pressure from already lofty levels.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  10:56:33 AM
Volume patterns offer one method of looking at market health. Watching important sectors offers another. Dow theory holds that market advances should be accompanied by or led by advances in the transportation index. At 2409.30 and moving up quickly as of this writing, the Dow Jones Transportation Index looks to challenge its exponential 200-dma at 2414.17. The index tested and then failed from this MA on Tuesday, and since then the daily 5(3)3 stochastics have continued to roll down from overbought territory. It will be interesting to see if the index can manage a close over this MA with the stochs measuring overbought conditions.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:53:28 AM
NDX 1,078 +3.4% ... on daily chart, NDX back above its still trending lower 200-day SMA of 1,064.88 and looks to challenge Tuesday's high of 1,082.52. Back above upper Bollinger Band too, which now tried to round higher. Break above Tuesday's high as 1,100 in play by Friday's close in my view.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  10:47:35 AM
The TRINQ has compressed to .26, and the QQV is now down at 36.76, which is a low seen only three times since last spring. HUI and XAU are both down today, HUI -2.68 and XAU -1.64. The US Dollar Index is moving up, trying to retake the 102 level. The participation of the USD in this rally gives it much better credibility. Bears, watch your stops.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  10:46:28 AM
As a side note: Even my father tells me that I sometimes get a little too micro in my trading and analysis. He would obviously like to me to have a way that could predict the market months and months out with the same kind of certainty. I tell him, "Dad, at the beginning of a football season, do you pick one team and bet on them every game no matter what happens to their program. They might be the Super Bowl favorite in June, but what if their quarterback or coach leaves? If before a big game, what if the whole team got sick, would you change your bet if you could?" Ok, maybe not the greatest metaphor.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:44:28 AM
Per Index Trader's Wrap ... my comments regarding the 5-minute closes and R2 levels of QQQ and NDX is perhaps analogous to last night's comments regarding American football. "On second down and goal, bulls have managed to get right back to the goal line here, it's now 3rd and goal." Will the bears be able to defend, or can bulls make the critical breakthrough?

Again... very short-term oriented comments as we're discussing 5-minute interval charts.

Bulls look to have the edge, as one of their "star players" has Treasuries seeing some rather significant selling today, and may indeed generate some cash that equities need for push higher.

Today's action may be due to news of "no smoking gun" out of UN weapons inspection team, or Bush's tax-relief stance.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  10:40:37 AM
Using fitted retracements, I put 0% retracement on today's low, and then 19.1% on the top of the first five-minutes. This then gives me a 38.2% level of 8723 and is close to 2x the range during the first five minutes. Note: The Dow also did find slight resistance at the profiled 8733 area. With this said, I would not be surprised to see a slight pullback or consolidation at current levels. If the Dow, on a possible pullback, fails to take out the 8660 area, I still will look for a close near the session's high.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:38:23 AM
QQQ $26.72 +3.24% ... today's R2 is $26.74. Haven't seen a 5-minute close above R2 at this point.

Again... if bears are going to defend it has got to be here.

  Mark Phillips   1/9/03,  10:37:48 AM
GS $72.65 (+1.73) With the Brokerage stocks responding well this morning, this LEAP candidate is once again marching towards that heavy resistance near $74. I like the way the stock continues to be rejected whenever it nears that level. Note today's high (so far) of $73.40, the third attempt over the past four sessions to test the 50-dma. So far, the bears still appear to have the upper hand and I would consider any rally failure below the 200-dma to be a solid entry point. Patient traders like me will want to see the actual rejection after a test of $74-75 before entry. Following that failure, the LEAPS Portfolio will track the position with a wide stop at $80, just above the Nov/Dec highs.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  10:36:14 AM
The put to call ratio has just come in unchanged, again at .79. Yields are up strongly, FVX +15.8 bps, TNX +12.5 and TYX +10.8 I believe that part of this selling in bonds is refunding the fed's 6B today, but doubtless that some of this is finding its way into equities.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:33:52 AM
Telephone Data Systems (TDS) $44.26 -0.58% ... turns defensive and takes out yesterday's lows. Looking for a 52-weeker here.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:32:33 AM
NDX 1,075.75 ... does close above 1,075 on 5-minute. Tends to now have John Seckiner's "opening drive" daily trade in play, where we'd look for indexes to close at their highs of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:27:52 AM
NDX 1,072.57 +2.88% ... on 5-minute bar, didn't see a 5-minute close above the 1,075. May see aggressive shorts hitting the QQQ, stop just above today's high.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  10:24:34 AM
VIX and VXN down, gold down, dollar up (minimally), and bond yields up: I'd expect volume patterns to be positive, too, and that's exactly what I'm seeing as of this writing. The ratio-method adv/dec calculations produces numbers of 2.67 for NYSE-traded issues and 2.7 for Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is 5.8 times down volume on the NYSE and a healthy 9.7 on the Nasdaq. Is that too healthy, so that we should look at it from a contrarian view? Not yet, I don't think. New highs/new lows figures continue to be healthy, too, with a 52:4 ratio for the NYSE and a 29:11 ratio for the Nasdaq. I'd be bullish on the day, except for Jonathan's report on the net drain.

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  10:23:18 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I must admit that I am somewhat surprised we made it back over 8700 in the Dow. So far we are holding that gain and after settling just above it, we are heading higher. The R2 level Jeff and John have been referring to is 8793 in the Dow and my stop of 8825 would be clearly above horizontal resistance, as well as that R2. Right now, I'm not seeing any signs of weakness and I would not be surprised if we head higher from here. Current levels: Dow 8719/SPX 924.37/OEX 467.86/COMP 1436.01

The COMP has now made up all of yesterday's loss and the SPX is approaching the key 925 level once again.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:22:28 AM
NDX 1,075.15 ... right here at today's R2. One thing I've observed in recent days is this. On 5-minute interval, really needs a 5-minute bar chart close ABOVE the R2. I've been seeing stocks and indexes actually trade marginally above or below R and S levels, only to not be able to close there. It's as if there are some individualy programs at the levels that either buy the S or sell the R.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  10:21:35 AM
The opening put to call ratio came in at .79. Is it dropping, or are option traders loading up on puts to anticipate another failure at the 200 dma? I don't know, but with the COMPX spending plenty of time just beneath the descending 200 dma ceiling, and the QQQ already above it, the next half hour is anything but boring.

  Mark Phillips   1/9/03,  10:19:29 AM
KSS $54.70 (+1.90) After the company stated that it sees Q4 results coming in at the low end of current guidance this morning, the stock gapped up substantially, but is now off the highs and stabilizing just below the $55 level. despite the strong move up this morning, the recent downtrend is still very much in place and I like the odds of filling this morning's gap. Aggressive traders can look for entries on another failed push up to the $55.75 level (near the morning highs), but my preference would be to wait for price to fall back into the opening gap. A break below $54.50 could set the stage for filling that gap down to the $52.90 level

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  10:18:40 AM
The fed has just announced a 7.75B overnight repo, and, in combination with today's earlier 3B 28 day repo, gives us a 6B net drain for today.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:13:03 AM
Pivot/Level Observations It has been an R1 day with all of the major indexes reaching R1 levels. NDX is very close to its R2 of 1,074.84.

If bears are going to defend yesterday's reversal, should look for it right in here on all indexes.

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  10:11:13 AM
Gotta love hearing the words "open drive." The Dow is above R1 at 8694 and, based on intra-day retracements, the next resistance area is above at 8733. Only a move under 8660 would get me to discard the aggressive five minute pattern. Objective can be 2x the first period's range in the Dow (8596 to 8660). This would put the Dow at 8724.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  10:04:40 AM
Remember when markets fell faster than they rose? Seems like a long time. This "open drive" move, to quote from John, has propelled the COMPX above 1426. QQQ is back above its 200 dma, which was at 26.49, while COMPX is heading for its own at 1435.85. The TRINQ is very low at .27, QQV as well at 37.66, down 1.02.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  10:03:55 AM
Wholesale Inventories up 0.2%, which was in line with consensus for 0.2% rise.

Dow +96 points 8,691, SPX up 12 at 922, OEX up 6.5 at 466.5, NDX up 29 at 1,071 and QQQ up 0.75 at $26.65.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  10:00:44 AM
OEX 466-467 has been support and resistance in the past, so I'm watching that level for possible resistance.

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  9:57:42 AM
Swing Trade Signals
It certainly appears on this latest push as though we will be making a run at Dow 8700. As I said earlier, traders who want to set their stops at the break-even level on the Short Signal can set them there. Current levels: Dow 8673/SPX 918.83/OEX 464.95/COMP 1426.22

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  9:53:56 AM
Wholesale Inventories due out at 10:00 AM EST. Consensus is for slight gain of 0.2%. Equity bulls look for a decline, while bears look for larger than expected rise in inventories.

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  9:52:41 AM
Swing Trade Signals
So far the rally is holding with a couple of higher lows on the pullbacks. The COMP made it back over that 1426 resistance level and the Dow broke back above its opening resistance range. As of this moment the indications look like we could climb higher, with bonds in the red, as John just noted. The opening range is so far pretty tight in the Dow, however, and a move back under 8440 might change my mind.

Current levels: Dow 8652/OEX 464.07/COMP 1423.95/SPX 917.56

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  9:48:34 AM
There is a rumor of a hedge fund selling $5 billion in five year notes. The five-year contract (ZF03H) is currently down '16.5 ticks while the 10-year note is lower than '23.5 ticks. The five-year note is underperforming the yield curve, but not to the extent that I would have expected. It was just in November when the five-eyar note was outperforming as stocks rallied; therefore, I cannot say right now that a weak five-year note is definitely positive for equities. I would slant that way, though. Note: The 30-year is down a full point (32/32), and that should be helping stocks. Next stop for Dow should be at 8673 (based on retracement between S2 and R2).

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  9:46:27 AM
It looked like a plane un-crashed there as a buy program gapped the COMPX almost straight from the 1418 s/r zone to the 1425 resistance level.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  9:44:10 AM
I've had an OEX 463.50 S/R line marked on my charts for several days. The OEX just moved handily through that area, with no trouble.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  9:44:00 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $53.96 +1.2% ... trades 2:1 split at today's open.Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  9:41:29 AM
Expedia (EXPE) $64.45 +0.65% ... from yesterday's day trade short, would look to move to sidelines here with small gain, with modest bullish tone in early session. Will monitor stock back near today's R1 of $65.22.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  9:39:54 AM
VLO: Valero Energy bounced off its exponential 200-dma yesterday, an action that bullish traders wanted to see. In the event of a continued bounce today, those holding January options should evaluate the risk/reward potential of holding calls into expiration week, when decay will accelerate. Depending on your entry level and your strike price, you risk losing more time premium than you would gain in price if VLO moves up again to test the 37.50-38.00 level and then fails. If holding OTM calls, you might consider the rewards of selling your calls into a bounce. Of course, if you sell, you also risk losing the opportunity to gain if Valero continues to rise after successfully testing its 200-dma. Only you can evaluate all these conditions. Good luck!

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  9:39:50 AM
With the first five minutes behind us, the range in the Dow is from 8598 to 8660. 50% of that range is 8629. Today's pivot in the Dow comes in at 8637, and R1 is above at 8694. R2 is at 8793. S1 and S2 are at 8538 and 8481, respectively.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  9:33:16 AM
The COMPX has first resistance at 1418, second at 1426.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  9:32:30 AM
13 point gap up open to COMXP 1414, TRINQ .24, TICK.NQ 39, QQV -.29 to 38.39.

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  9:30:32 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  9:26:05 AM
Swing Trade Signals
As I mentioned in last night's Swing Wrap, I expected some bounce after yesterday's big sell-off. The question will be just how high that bounce takes us. As we are getting into earnings season, daily announcements can have extreme effects. Today's news from SAP about better than expected license sales, GM's 2003 forecast and the jobs data should give us a boost this morning. AOL's new charge, however, is keeping a bit of a lid on the rally to start.

I'm going to leave my stop at Dow 8825 for the time being, although conservative traders can lower it to the break-even level of 8700. In a perfect world (for shorts) we'd get a rally failure at previous resistance in the 8643-8650 area and then a move back below yesterday's lows.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  9:05:45 AM
European markets have moved off the day's lows, with the FTSE 100 now down only .43%, the CAC down .17%, and the DAX down .77%. As of this writing, the DAX remains below the crucial 3000 level, however, turning back at 2980 and currently trading at 2970.10.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  8:55:55 AM
The fed has an impressive 16.75B in expiring repos today. 7B of that is in 28 day repos. The fed has just made the first open market operations announcement of the day, with a new 28 day repo of 3B. That is a net drain of 4B on the markets, but of course, there are more announcements to come this morning regarding the shorter term repos.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  8:47:30 AM
Initial jobless claims dropped 19,000 from last week to 389,000, beating expectations by 5,000. Here's the Bloomberg Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  8:43:14 AM
I've just installed the new Market Monitor application and am very impressed. The installation went off without a hitch, and the app looks great. Kudoz!

  Jonathan Levinson   1/9/03,  8:40:39 AM
Bond yields are sharply up, with FVX +10.1 bps, TNX +7.3 bps, and TYX +4.7 bps. QQQ is up 32 cents from its close on Island ECN. After touching 357/oz last night, gold is trading just above 353, while the US Dollar Index is recovering from yesterday's selloff, just below 101.80.

  Linda Piazza   1/9/03,  8:02:16 AM
Across Europe and Asia, markets moved down today. The FTSE 100 was down .92%. As anticipated, the Bank of England announced that it would not change its benchmark rate. Perhaps that decision or the increasing concerns over the domestic retail environment and war with Iraq weighed on the U.K. markets.

The ECB is also expected to hold rates steady today. As of this writing, the CAC 40 was down .58% and the German DAX was down 1.29%, at 2954.47. As widely expected, German unemployment figures released today showed that unemployment had risen to 10.1%, a 4-1/2 year high. This brings back the specter of a second recession in two years for the world's third-largest economy. Growth outlooks for the year have been lowered to 1% or less, although the government maintains its projected 1.5% growth rate. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder faces increasing rancor as he raises taxes to meet budgetary requirements. Public workers threaten a strike.

In Asia, exporters suffered as the dollar slipped in value against the yen. The Nikkei closed down .23%.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  4:14:22 AM
Important Notice about the Market Monitor

The early Java version of the Market Monitor will be turned off around noon today. The entire Market Monitor has been rewritten as a desktop application and contains no Java. The Java client was just too slow for the volume of readers and the amount of data.

Everyone using any earlier desktop application that does not look like the picture in this link needs to download the new version today before noon. If this image does not look like the desktop version you are using then you need to download the new one.

Click here for picture of the new monitor: Link

The new desktop monitor monitor has lots of quick links, view all the posts from your favorite analyst with one click and will have the futures trades beginning on Monday. Most of all it is fast.

To download the new monitor click here: Link

The current version is about 4.5MB so plan accordingly for download time. It is well worth it.

If you have any trouble with the installation you can email the creator at Acarson@OptionInvestor.com or call him at 303-797-0200. He will be glad to walk you through it if needed. Currently it only works on Windows PCs. If you have Unix, Linux, Apple or Mac you need to continue to use the browser version.

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  3:58:20 AM
End of year renewal special - Only 4 days left to take advantage of the special. Those readers who want to lock in the cheapest rate possible with a ton of freebies should check it out! Click here: Link

Upgrade your regular subscription to a Premium level to continue receiving the Market Monitor. Click here: Link

  Steven Price   1/9/03,  3:57:51 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/9/03,  3:57:33 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  John Seckinger   1/9/03,  3:57:12 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  Jim Brown   1/9/03,  3:56:46 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link


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